Wildfire and Smoke 2008

Federal Wildland Fire Policy Implementation Field Test

Wildfire Decision Support Development

Addressing Wildfire Smoke

Federal Wildland Fire

Policy

2003 Interagency Strategy

for the Implement

ation of Federal Wildland

Fire Policy

2009 Guidance

for Implement

ation of Federal Wildland

Fire Policy

2008 Field Pilots to

Develop and Test the Modified

Implementation

Guidance

Wildfire(Objective: PROTECTION “to put the fire out” & Minimize Loss)

Wildland Fire Use(Objective: BENEFICIAL “to accomplish specific resource management

objectives”)

Appropriate Management Response Strategic Spectrum

Direct Attack Containment Confinement Monitoring

“Tactical Alternatives”

Wildfire Strategic Objectives(Objective: PROTECTION “to put the fire out” & Minimize Loss)

(Objective: BENEFICIAL “to accomplish specific resource management objectives”)

Appropriate Management Response Strategic Spectrum

Direct Attack Containment Confinement Monitoring

“Tactical Alternatives”

Pilot Units• Northwest Geographic Area

– Wallowa-Whitman National Forest– Olympic National Park

• Northern Rockies Geographic Area– Bitterroot National Forest & Lolo

National Forest– Yellowstone National Park– Flathead Agency*WFDSS Test Unit

Pilot Units• Northern California Geographic Area

– Klamath National Forest

• Southern California Geographic Area– Sequoia National Forest– Sierra National Forest1 (Tehipite Fire)– Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks

• Eastern Great Basin Geographic Area– Payette National Forest– Grand Teton National Park and John D.

Rockefeller Memorial Parkway*WFDSS Test Unit1 Granted “Pilot” status for a single fire

Pilot Units• Rocky Mountain

– Upper Colorado Rive Fire Management Zone

• White River National Forest & Grand Valley District of the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre, Gunnison National Forest

• Grand Junction Field Office, Glenwood Field Office, & Northwest Colorado Fire Management Area (Craig)

• Brown’s Park National Wildlife Refuge• Colorado National Monument and Dinosaur

National Monument*WFDSS Test Unit

Pilot Units• Alaska

– Tanana Fire Management Zone• BLM, NPS, FWS, BIA and State of Alaska

• Southwest Geographic Area– Gila National Forest & Kaibab National

Forest– Gila Cliff Dwelling National Monument– Grand Canyon National Park

• Southern Geographic Area– Great Smoky Mountains National Park

* WFDSS Test Unit

Wildland Fire Decision Support System

WFIP

WFSA

Decision Support

Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS)

A system intended to assist fire managers and analysts in determining the appropriate management response (AMR) for fire incidents.

It is designed to replace the WFSA (Wildland Fire Situation Analysis) and other incident planning processes with an easier more intuitive online product.

Introduces economic principles into the fire decision process including assessment of values at risk

WFDSS – RAVAR• Rapid Assessment of Values-at-Risk (RAVAR)• Improved strategic risk assessment tool• Risk = Threat * Value Change• Provides spatially explicit values at risk data linked

to fire threat projections – FSPro (Fire Spread Probability) or other fire behavior

models– User defined polygons

• Value is identified in RAVAR – need more research to get value change

http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/wfdss_ravar/

Components of RAVAR• FS Pro or other fire

behavior models or user defined polygons

• Private Structures• Housing Values• Infrastructure

– including power transmission, pipelines, communication towers, water supply infrastructure

• Air Quality Information

How to incorporate smoke in decision making?

Smoke models are not yet available or ready to incorporate in WFDSS

Need a way to report possible air quality issues and smoke dispersion potential to the wildland fire community and others

Air quality assessments added to RAVAR must take less than 30 minutes to complete to allow for efficient and rapid turn-around

The air quality components added to RAVAR

Nonattainment GIS data layers– PM 2.5 Nonattainment areas– Ozone Nonattainment areas– PM 2.5 Proposed Areas

Ozone and PM monitoring stations Communities over 50,000 population* FS Pro Models buffered out 100 miles Wind Rose from surface weather

stations

Product Example

Future Development

• Communities at risk from drainage smoke• Improved potential smoke plume polygon

based on climate data• Mixing layer Wind Rose for duration of

FSPro simulation• Location of Base Camp and Aviation

Operations

2008 Smoke Approaches

Single Incident –North Carolina

Multiple Incidents –Southern California October 2007–Northern California Summer 2008

North CarolinaEvans Road Fire

Traffic Safety Issues

Public Health and Safety Issues NCDAQ Policy is no monitoring of wildfires Monitors deployed by fire managers

Fire Fighter Exposure Three Foot Deep Smoldering Organic Soils

ManteoColumbia

FairfieldBelhaven

Readings for 6/21/08 from 0000 to 0900 hrs. It is very unfortunate data collection did not take place until 2 weeks into the incident.

At the request of the FBAN NWS continuously runs Hysplit to review modeled smoke trajectory fire in order to fine tune NOAA Radio Broadcast and Hazard Statements.

Clockwise Moving Transition Zone

Simple Smoke Vectors (extend 30 miles) depict major smoke corridors using NWS Wind Direction Forecast for Evans Rd. Fire from6/10/08 (3 hrs past sunset) to 6/11/08 (4 hrs past sunrise)

Corroborates BlueSky model projection

Max 1 hr PM 2.5 concentration for 6/11/08 from 0000 hrs to 2400 hrs. Each Square is ~ 7 sq mi