Rural Tourism Studio

South Coast, Oregon

David Beurle

Future iQ Partners www.future-iq.com

Committed groups

Committed groups

• Play Future Game

• Review Survey results

• Review assessment of key drivers

shaping the future

• Define plausible scenarios

Day 1 - Program

SURVEY RESULTS

N = 71

ChartExport-62 ChartExport-62 ChartExport-62

What is

Scenario

Planning?

A tool best used to

embrace an uncertain

future

Explores a range of

plausible futures

Allows for the

consideration of

complex and

interrelated forces

Explore Trends and Implications for tourism

industry

Develop ‘Drivers’ Shaping South Coast

Develop four

plausible scenarios

Implications for the South Coast

Preferred Future and

action planning

Importance / Uncertainty matrix

Rate each driver on a 1 – 5 scale

(1=low; 5=high)

Driver Importance Uncertainty

Global economic volatility

Local Economic development

Energy costs

Cost of living

Trained Workforce

Population change

Aging population

Collaboration and engagement

Access to local services

Quality of life

Regional transport infrastructure

Govt regulation and funding

Impact climate change and natural disasters

Mgt of natural resources

Land Use Planning

Lodging Developments

Access to communication infrastructure

Regional recreation infrastructure

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00

Un

ce

rta

inty

Importance

RTS Scenario Shaping Clusters of Drivers

Regional scenario shaping clusters of drivers

Ability to leverage our human capacity Regional collaboration and engagement

Local economic development efforts

Suitably trained local workforce

Quality of life on South Coast

Local access to services such as Health Care

Tourism and economic infrastructure Regional recreation infrastructure

Land use planning

Energy and fuel costs

Management of natural resources and biodiversity

Regional transport infrastructure

Lodging developments

Access to information and communication technology

Effective planning. collaboration

and actions that are anchored in

local values, aspirations and skills.

Well resourced

local tourism

and economic

infrastructures

Lack of critical

infrastructures

to support

viable tourism

industry

Fragmented and

disjointed efforts with

conflicting priorities.

Scenario name and brief description_______________

Social Characteristics

Economic Characteristics

Environmental Characteristics

Scenario Group _______

Headline news for the following years…

2015

2020

2030

Regional

dimensions to

consider

(What would

tourism on

South Coast be

like in 2030?)

• Population

makeup/characteris

tics

• Distribution of

population

• Landscape and

visual impacts

• ‘Liveability’ and

quality of life

features

• Skills and

educational profiles

• Industry and

economic profiles

Timeline for scenario

formulation

Suggested Scenario Group timeline

6:30 Group meet and scope-out scenario (15m)

6:45 Break into 3 groups – develop characteristics (30m)

7:15 Small group report back (10m)

7:25 Short scenario name (5m)

7:30 Return to main room ready to present

Timeline for scenario formulation

Suggested Scenario Group timeline

9:30 Group meet and scope-out scenario (15m)

9:45 Break into 3 groups – develop characteristics (20m)

10:05 Small group report back (15m)

10:20 Break into 3 groups – develop TBLP (20)

10:40 Small group report back (15m)

10:55 Short scenario name (5m)

11:00 Return to main room ready to present

Regional scenario formulation

Regional Scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters

increase decrease

decrease

Scenario B Scenario A

Scenario D Scenario C

increase

Tourism and economic infrastructure

Ab

ilit

y t

o leve

rag

e

h

um

an

cap

acit

y

Resilience and vulnerability of

scenarios

How would we respond under ‘shocks’? • What would happen to our communities and people?

• What would our economy do?

• Impacts on the environment?

Shocks?

• There is an economic double dip..

• Price of oil jumps dramatically

Context Content

Regional Branding

• Food and Tourism

• Retail marketing within region and external

• Highly successful and effective

• Improves local agricultural base

www.westcorkleader.ie

Regional Branding

– “achieving competitive advantage through the use of the area’s unique image & identity”

• LEADER programme – integrated development

strategy

– dedicated resources

• West Cork – Strong regional image

– Local resource potential

Food & Tourism Sector

• Importance to Local Economy

• Local Resource Potential

• Sustainable Development

• Potential for Added Value

• Cultural Wealth

• People = Place = Product

• Owner-Managed

Timeframe

• 1995 Planning & Development

• 1996 Concept Launch

• 1998 Commercial Launch

• 2001 Subscription Income

• 2002 LEADER+

Geographic markets1

Tourism and Food members

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

West Cork Cork City Rest of

Ireland

UK Other

All Tourism

Food

%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Food full-time

Tourism full-time

Full-Time Employment – Brand members

• Steady growth in

employment

reflects growing

– Membership

– Employment

at enterprise

level

• Increasing

importance of

employment in

food enterprises

0

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Food part-time

Tourism part-time

Part-Time Employment – brand members

• Part-time

employment is

more in the

tourism industry

• Steady growth in

p/t employment

also reflects

growing

– Membership

– Employment

at enterprise

level

Martinborough – Waiarapa region

New Zealand – reinventing a town

• Rebuilding a heritage town

• Building on unique factor and creating unique tourism experience

• One person can make a difference!

Unique town square and attractive

location

NZ Wine Trail

Corrigin – Case Study

‘Dog in the Ute’ – world

record holder

Town planning committee ‘Corrigin – Our

Future Committee’ decided to put Corrigin

on the map (founded by Leigh Hardingham)

• Created a world record attempt at

the number of ‘dogs in utes’ event.

• Had over 2000 entries

• Created national publicity

• Now national competition with Victoria

Corrigin Dog Cemetery

The Dog in the Ute Competition

Town entrance signs

INNOVATION IN AGRICULTURE

AWARDS 1998

WINDMILL FLOUR – BRENDAN GRYLLS

Corrigin WA

Regional produce – yabbies

Wheatbelt Regional Cuisine

HYDEN – Case Study of a self-reliant and

entrepreneurial community

HYDEN – at the end of the rail-line

• 340 km east of Perth – 4 hours drive

• Population 600

• Settled in 1920’s

• Wheat and grain farming area – large scale and remote

‘The Wave Rock Experience’ Creating a world famous tourism destination

• 2,700 million years old natural rock formation

• This feature measures 15 metres high and 110 metres around a granite cliff

CREATING THE HYDEN TOURISM DEVELOPMENT COMPANY

• In 1970’s, it began with the establishment of a caravan park, followed by cabins, hire vans and has now grown into the Wave Rock Motel complex – a $5 million facility.

• The Company has promoted Wave Rock such that it now attracts 130,000 people per year

‘The Wave Rock Experience’

Creating the next stage – an international airport and lakeside resort!

Locals instigated construction of the Hyden Regional Airport to provide access for international visitors who have money, but not time.

The company shareholders have never taken a dividend – they prefer to invest in their own community.

Hyden Business Development Company

• 23 local farmers have each contributed $8000 as registered equal shares

• The company supported the establishment of 5 new businesses in Hyden.

Impact and Benefits

• Tourism has generated 70 jobs

• The town has 100% full employment

• Over 80% of the tourism jobs employ

people under 30 year old

• Wave Rock Prime Beef – a quality driven

cooperative marketing initiative aimed at making

Hyden the ‘Beef Capital of the Wheatbelt’

• New tourism attractions - by young local

entrepreneurs, eg: Stargate Observatory, Steel

Fabricator, Supermarket

The Tin Horse Highway

Kulin Bush Races – Case Study

Kulin is a small country town (pop approx. 300)

about 4 hours drive east of Perth.

• It has created a major tourist event – each year in October they hold the Kulin Bush Races.

• Nearly 4,000 people travel to Kulin and stay for the race weekend.

Shire Logo – creating the Bush

Races theme

Town entry sign

Kulin created the first Community

Bank in Western Australia

Newly built town water park

Committed groups

Ultimate Tourism Action Plan:

• Tourism Planning / Action

• Regional Promotion

• Waldport & individual communities

• Focus areas for tourism development

– Recreational

– Cultural

– Eco-friendly

– Natural resource

– Off season options

Tourism Planning / Action

• Planning events – cooperation and collaboration

• Teamwork – working together toward goals

• A plan would help define where limited dollars

should be spent. ..help define roles and illuminate

the ‘big picture”.

• Systemic processes for action – embedded in

daily work.

• As a region – highlighting strengths of each

community to create a regional package

• Tax options – regional infrastructure

improvements

Regional Promotion

• Advertising and promotional vacation packages

• Promote as a region – with limited dollars

• Lack of cohesive branding

• Identify strengthen, and better promote our assets

and work together as a broader community for the

greater success of everyone.

• With the values of the region – of preservation and

as a part of the Oregon coast.

Scenario A – Isolated

Intelligence Community / social

• Well educated - Highly skilled

• All out here by ourselves

• No facilities, the restaurants are gone, hotels are gone – and no toilets

• Back to the future scenario – people were camping and hiking here a long time ago

• No one will be living here

• Isolated pockets of money and poverty index will go up

• Have to be a survivalist since no one’s coming to get you

Environmental

• Enviro research would be strong here

• People could see how the environment is being impacted

• Well preserved; not a lot of degradation

• Sometimes we don’t really understand the relations between public

Economy

• Would have guides

• Bush pilots would take people into this isolated, remote area

• Very green facilities with composting toilets

• High number of PhDs

Scenario B – Wal-hats, Ya-port, Good for

All Social

• Sustainable jobs & businesses

• One single Chamber for the entire region – or three working close together

• Health services have been increased; easier to get what you need locally

• Education & training is widely available

• A shared regional vision that everyone agrees to and uses

• We see ourselves entirely responsible and we drive the entire thing.

Economic

• Selling awareness of enjoyment of the resources that are here

• Natural resources have been preserved

• Activities are nature-based and diverse

• Businesses are historically and culturally based

Environmental

• Setting today is preserved; isn’t changed – looks

• USFS is an active partner instead of an agency that just shows up once in a while and sits

on a tower

• Physical connection between Waldport & Yachats – business districts are connected

• We involve and educate the tourist on our local ethic of environmental stewardship

Scenario C – Nice place to visit, wouldn’t

want to live there Social

• A lot of second homes; owners don’t contribute to community

• Aging communities

• Lack of health care; Lack of skilled people

• More hotels/more restaurants – but not one to take care of you

• Will have conflicting priorities – communities are still fighting one another,

• Regional health clinic – nurses are the only ones who will

• More independent and migratory -- every unit will have its own electricity and grow their

own food

Economic / Tourism

• No economies of scale; No one working together

• Opportunities – lots of land, no one to compete with

• Heliports for people to fly in

• Outsiders would own all of the tourism infrastructure ; locals would lose their

entrepreneurial spirit

Environment

• More trails, more opportunities to enjoy the nature since no one is here

• Energy – go back to the Old West, have to shoot the meat off the hoof, warm up your

house through firewood

Scenario D – Bring it on Social

• Loosing population; Aging population

• Absentee owners

• Brain drain; youth are not coming back

• Haves and have nots are separate

• Lack of law enforcement; high crime

• Low paying jobs; Schools go away

• Decision from bottom up goes away; Inflexible; hard to recover from problems

• Loss of critical mass to support services

Environment

• As you lose human capital; decision making moves to the county or higher up

• Hard for locals to make change

• Look at resources who are managed by folks who aren’t here

• At some point you wish for the tsunami

• More accidents

Tourism economy

• Fragmented or non-existent

• Lack of a skilled workforce; lack of jobs

• Empty buildings

• Islands of prosperity in a sea of poverty

Priority Actions 1-5 years

• Create a structure to move sustainable tourism

forward (18)

• Trail Development (13)

• New Event Creation (12)

• Marketing plan (11)

• Develop local food system and integration into

local culinary experience (8)

• Create a formal network for local businesses (5)