Wikibon predictions 2017 3.0
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Transcript of Wikibon predictions 2017 3.0
Webinar Housekeeping• Everyone is muted• Use “Q&A” window for
questions.• Use “chat” window for
comments.• We are recording the
webinar
Peter BurrisChief Research Officer
David VellanteC0-CEO
Quick Update on Wikibon
TV TeamSiliconANGLE.tv
Event Focus
Media TeamSiliconANGLE.com
Editorial
Analyst Teamwww.wikibon.com
Market IntelligencePeer Communities
Theme: Put More Data To Work
Data Work
• Customer data• Operational
data• Financial data• Any data
• Superior engagement
• Customer experience• Agile operations• Automation
Agenda
2017 – 6 predictions- What’s driving system architecture?- Do µCPU options matter?- Whither HDDs?- Code in the cloud?- Amazon momentum?- Big data complexity?
2022 – 3 predictions- New IT mandate?- IoT + AR = ?- Is this all there is to digital engagement?
2027 – 1 prediction- Will we all work for AI?
Agenda
2017 – 6 predictions- What’s driving tech architecture?- Do µCPU options matter?- Whither HDDs?- Code in the cloud?- Amazon momentum?- Big data complexity?
2022 – 3 predictions- New IT mandate?- IoT + AR = ?- Is this all there is to digital engagement?
2027 – 1 prediction- Will we all work for AI?
What’s Driving Tech Architecture?Wikibon 2017 Prediction• IoT edge use cases begin
shaping decisions in system and application architecture.• Cloud moves to the edge.• Data movement isn’t free• Distributed, autonomous
apps.• Lots of new OT players
impact decisions.
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000IoT Edge Options, 3-year Costs
Onsite Equipment CostsAWS Cloud CostsEdge Data Transmission Costs
Source: Wikibon, “The Vital Role of Edge Computing for IoT: 2016 Update, 11/8/2016
Do µCPU options matter?Wikibon 2017 Prediction• Evolution in workloads
creates an opening for new µCPU technologies, which grab 2-3 points of x86 server market share.• Volume ARM-based servers• GPUs for big data apps• Still room for RISC in pre-
packaged HCI solutions
Devi
ce S
erve
d
Data
Vol
umes
Legacy SoftwareCons
umer
Ec
onom
ics
Factors Driving Server Technologies
Moore’s Law
Whither HDDs?Wikibon 2017 prediction:• Anything in a data center
that physically moves gets less useful and loses share of wallet.• Flash-only data center
on the horizon• Cost avoidance and
superior business value.• Applies to labor, too. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 $-
$5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50
Worldwide Enterprise HDD & SDD Storage System Revenue, 2013-
2022 ($Billions)
Enterprise Storage System HDD-based RevenueEnterprise Storage System Flash Revenue
$35.6
$46.9
HDD-based Enterprise Storage System Revenue
Flash-based Enterprise Storage System Revenue
Code in the Cloud?Wikibon 2017 Prediction• The new cloud development
stack, centering on containers and APIs, matures rapidly, but institutional habits in development constrain change.• 80% of in-house development
set up work “the old way.”• Big data will contravene
habits.• Time-to-value metrics will be
key.
Amazon Momentum?Wikibon 2017 Prediction• Amazon has another
banner year, but customers start demanding a “simplicity reset.”• Flexibility spawns
complexity for all.• Tools for managing AWS
billing hitting the market.• Add hybrid cloud and
complexity multiplies.
Big Data Complexity?Wikibon 2017 Prediction• Failure rates for big data
pilots drop by 50% as big vendors – IBM, MSFT, AWS, and Google – bring pre-packaged, problem-based, analytic pipelines to market.• Time-to-value becomes
focus.• Big data app patterns start to
solidify.• Machine learning, cognitive,
AI – all part of the use-case-to-app trend.
Agenda
2017 – 6 predictions- What’s driving tech architecture?- Do µCPU options matter?- Whither HDDs?- Code in the cloud?- Amazon momentum?- Big data complexity?
2022 – 3 predictions- New IT mandate?- IoT + AR = ?- Is this all there is to digital engagement?
2027 – 1 prediction- Will we all work for AI?
New IT Mandate?2022 Wikibon prediction• IT organizations organize work
to generate greater value from data assets by engineering “proximity” of applications and data.• Data value becomes a hot
topic• Catalyzes true private cloud
solutions for legacy applications• “Strategic sourcing” becomes
a reality
Systems of Record
Big Analyti
cs
IoT + AR = ?Wikibon 2022 Prediction• Augmented reality emerges as
a crucial “actuator” for the internet of things – and people (IoT&P).• Businesses still serve
customers• Systems of “enaction”
generate real-world outcomes from analytic models and insights• Innovation flows from social
discovery, too
Internet of Things and
People
Big DataSystems of “Enaction”
Digital Business Management
Digital Business Platform
Is This All There Is To Digital Engagement?
Wikibon 2022 Prediction• IT is given greater responsibility
for management of demand chains, working to unify customer journey designs and operations across all engagement functions.• Data transforms products into
services• Mobile apps too focused on
solving seller’s problem.• Collaboration makes a
comeback – to serve customers
Disc
ove
rEv
aluat
e
Buy
Apply
UseFixProble
m
Solution
Operation
The C
ourts
hip The
Honeymoon
The Marriage
The Customer
Journey
Agenda
2017 – 6 predictions- What’s driving tech architecture?- Do µCPU options matter?- Whither HDDs?- Code in the cloud?- Amazon momentum?- Big data complexity?
2022 – 3 predictions- New IT mandate?- IoT + AR = ?- Is this all there is to digital engagement?
2027 – 1 prediction- Will we all work for AI?
Will We All Work For AI?Wikibon 2027 Prediction• AI technology advances far
outpace social advances: Some tasks will be totally replaced, but most jobs will be partially replaced.• Social friction (e.g., loss
avoidance) gates AI technology adoption• AI will tend to complement,
not substitute, for labor.• New design consideration:
“Should we do it?” Source: http://i.imgur.com/V34vlg0.jpg
Conclusions
2017 – 6 predictions- Tech architecture? Edge IoT- µCPU options? Yes- Whither HDDs? Flash- Code in the cloud? Yes, but …- Amazon momentum? Yes- Big data complexity? Bad
2022 – 3 predictions- New IT mandate? Drive value of data- IoT + AR = IoT&P- Is this all there is to digital engagement? Demand chain management
2027 – 1 prediction- Will we all work for AI? Not by 2027
Thank You!
Peter [email protected]@plburris650-387-4703
David [email protected]
@dvellante774-463-3400