Wicked Problems: National Security Implications of the ... · problem • Every solution to a...
Transcript of Wicked Problems: National Security Implications of the ... · problem • Every solution to a...
WickedProblems:NationalSecurityImplicationsoftheFourth
IndustrialRevolutionLintonWellsII
C4I&CyberCenterSeminarApril10,2017©2017
Overview
• DefinitionofWickedProblems• FourIndustrialRevolutions• IntersectionswithCurrentMilitaryDevelopments• InternationalChallenges• ImplicationsofConvergingTrends• ChallengesforNationalSecurityDecision-Makers&Research
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SecurityDefinition
Freedomfromwantandfreedomfromfear
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BroadClassesofProblems
• Simple(orTameorWell-Structured)Problems– Problemiswell-definedandhowtosolveitisgenerallyknown,eventhoughexecutingmaybehard
– Seeslide6• Complicated(orMedium-Structured)Problems– Generalagreementonproblemdefinition,butnotonthesolution
• Wicked(orComplexorIll-Structured)Problems– Noagreementonproblemdefinition,muchlessonsolution.Seeslides7-8
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TameProblems• Havearelativelywell-definedandstableproblemstatement.
• Haveadefinitestoppingpoint,i.e.weknowwhenthesolutionorasolutionisreached.
• Haveasolutionwhichcanbeobjectivelyevaluatedasbeingrightorwrong.
• Belongtoaclassofsimilarproblemswhichcanbesolvedinasimilarmanner.
• Havesolutionswhichcanbetriedandabandoned.4/10/17 [email protected],[email protected],
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CriteriaforWickedProblems(1)Rittel andWebber,1973,asamplifiedbyUnitedStatesArmy.“Commander’sAppreciationandCampaignDesign”Version1.0,28January2008.Pages4-12.
Wicked(orComplex,orIll-Structured)Problems• Thereisnodefinitivewaytoformulateawickedproblem• Wickedproblemshaveno“stoppingrule”• Solutionstowickedproblemsarebetterorworse,notrightorwrong• Thereisnoimmediate,norultimate,testofasolutiontoawicked
problem• Everysolutiontoawickedproblemisaone-shotoperation• Everywickedproblemisessentiallyuniqueandnovel• Wickedproblemsareinteractivelycomplex• Everywickedproblemisasymptomofanotherproblem• Wecannotunderstandawickedproblemwithoutproposingasolution• Wickedproblemshavenofixedsetofpotentialsolutions• Theproblem-solverhasnorighttobewrong
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CriteriaforWickedProblems(2)WickedProblems: Aclassofproblems“thatdefysolution,evenwithourmostsophisticatedanalyticaltools”Characterizedby:• Nodefinitiveproblemstatement:infact,thereisbroaddisagreementonwhat‘theproblem’is
• Anopen-endedsearchforsolutions• Stakeholderschampionalternativesolutionsandcompetewithoneanotherinwaysthatdirectlyconnectstheirpreferredsolutionandtheirpreferredproblemdefinition
• Problemsolvingprocessiscomplexsinceconstraintsareconstantlychanging
• Constraintsalsochangebecausenumerousinterestedpartieschangetheproblem-solvingrules4/10/17 7
(Roberts, 2001, p. 1)
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Examples
• Terrorism
• NuclearProliferation
• CyberSecurity
• ClimateChange
• BorderSecurity
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FourIndustrialRevolutions
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• 1st ~1780s:
• 2nd ~1870:
• 3rd~1969:
• 4th justbeginning:fusetechnologies“blurlinesbetweenphysical,digitalandbiologicalspheres”
Source:KlausSchwab,“TheFourthIndustrialRevolution:whatitmeans,howtorespond,”14January2016http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/, accessedFebruary16,2016
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4th IndustrialRevolution(4th IR)• Keydistinctionsbetween3rd &4threvolutions:– Velocityofchange,scope,andsystems-wideimpact• Massivelydisruptive,andaccelerating• Transformingmanagement,aswellasproductionanddistribution• Canprovideveryimportantcollectivebenefitstosociety,butalsonegativelyaffectmanyindividuals– Lossofjobsandpaceofsocialchange–Machinelearningandartificialintelligence
• Responses mustengagepublic-private,whole-of-society,andtrans-nationalstakeholders– Incomprehensive,integratedways
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VelocityofTechChangeØ Ifafactor,e.g.computingpower/unitcost,doublesevery18mo,5yr
increaseis900%,10yr 10,000%,15yr ~100,000%
– Biotechevenfaster,roboticsubiquitous,nano poisedbreakout,energyimpactsareglobal
• - ThinkBRINE(bio-robo-info-nano-energy)+AdditiveManufacturingInteractionscomplicatethingsLinearprojectionsCAN’Twork
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Growth in Computing Power per Unit Cost
Capability doubles every 18 months Capability doubles every 24 months
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U.S.ThirdOffsetStrategy(3rd OS)• Leveragesmanysimilartechnologiesas4IR• 5mainbuildingblocks:
– Learningmachines:
– Human-machinecollaboration:
– Advancedhuman-machinecombatteaming:
– Assistedhumanoperations:
– Autonomousweapons:
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ThirdOffsetStrategy(2)
• Goalof3rd OSisto“makehumansmoreeffectiveincombat”Muchincommonwith4thIR
– Inbothareaspeoplemustbeempoweredtoaddressmostseriouschallenges
– Techisimportant,butbothinvolveadaptionand,ideallyanticipation,across Organizations,People,andProcesses,aswellasTechnology
• NOTJUSTTECH
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ConvergenceofCommercialTrendswillAffectC4ISR*
• VelocityofTechChange
• ExplosionofSensors—many-non-government
• CyberandEW—KineticandNon-KineticFires
• InfoSharing&Security
• DataVisualization/VirtualReality
• OODALoop&DecisionCycles
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*Command,Control,Communications,Computing,Intelligence,Surveillance,[email protected],[email protected],
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ExplosionofSensors• OpenSourceISR-GIS
• UASs
• IV4(InfoVolume,Velocity,Veracity,Value)
• Mobile,Wearable
• InternetofThings(IoT)
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CyberandEWConvergenceKinetic&Non-KineticFires
• ManeuverinElectromagneticSpectrum(EMS)Space– NavyElectromagneticManeuverWarfare(EMW)– ArmyCyberElectromagneticActivities(CEMA)• EWPlanning&ManagementTool(EWPMT)
–MarineCorpsCyberEWCoordinationCell(CEWCC)
– USAF• C4ISRImplications
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InfoSharingandSecurity• InfoSharingRules• Alternativeapproachestocybersecurity– Bigdata– NRTanomalydetection– Supplychain,blockchain
• Majorpolicy,legal,moral,ethical,privacyissues
CommandandControl/Sensemaking/DecisionSupport
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Howtoachieve“UnityofAction”whenthere’sno“UnityofControl?”
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DataVisualization/VirtualReality
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GraphicsbySynglyphX
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OODALoop&DecisionCycles• “Observe”and“Orient”phasesincreasinglyelectromagnetic
• “Decide”and“Act”supportedbyinformationprocessing
• CybercandominateOODAloopinanydomain
• Techchanges– Processingpower– Machinelearning– Sensorproliferation– Army2050battlefield—canyoumove?
• Speedofdecisions– “Man-on-the-loop,”vice“Man-in-the-loop”
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Imagecourtesysuccessing.com
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CheapTechChallengesU.S.TacticalDominance
• EvolvingTech– AdditiveManufacturing—drones,EFPs– Nanotech—nanoexplosives andnanomaterials– Space-likecapabilities—GIS,ORS,AerialLayer– AI—convergenceoftechtomakecheap,widelyavailable,autonomousweapons
• ImplicationsforModernBattlefield– IrregularWarfare,ConventionalWarfare(Ground,Sea,Air,Space,Cyber)
• StrategicImplications—costofinterventionrises– “Small,smartandmany”*represent
excellentinvestmentsforadversaries– USmaybeunderinvestinginevolving4IRtechthat’schangingnatureofwarfare
4/10/17 20*TXHammes,JFQ81 [email protected],[email protected],202.436.6354,Skype:linwells
4th IRJob-RelatedSecurityIssues(1)• 4th IRcanraiseglobalincomesandimprovequalityoflives– Moreunequalanddisruptedlabormarkets– Lossofjobs,“low-skill/low-pay”and“high-skill/highpay”groups
– Societalinequalitiesandsocialtensions• Servicejobsparticularlyvulnerable toautomation– Servicesaresome80%ofdevelopedworldemployment,growingroleindevelopingeconomies
– McKinseyGlobalInstitute(MGI)2017study:• lessthan5percentofalloccupationscanbeautomatedentirely• “about60%ofalloccupationshaveatleast30%ofconstituentactivitiesthatcouldbeautomated.”[withpresenttech]
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Job-RelatedSecurityImplications(2)• Impactslikelytobemoresevereinyouthbulgeareas– PartsofIslamicworld,SouthAsiaandsub-SaharanAfrica,plusmegacitiesandunder-servedpartsofdevelopedworld
– Pressuresformigration&radicalizationifNOentryleveljobs• Hencenostakeininternationalsystem
• Manytypesofsecurityproblems:– Impactofamillionrefugees onEuropein2015– Manytimesmorelikelyinfuture– Highpotentialfordomesticunrest,scapegoat-finding,radicalnationalismandprotectionism• Unlessgovernmentsandtheprivatesector“arereallyskillfulinmanagingthesechanges”-- trackrecordnotencouraging
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TheEconomist hasbeenespeciallygoodinreportingonthesetopics
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Job-RelatedSecurityImplications(3)• 4th IRchallengesarebeyond3rd OS’sintendedfocus– Unrestindeveloping(anddeveloped)world– Potentialthreatstoexistingsecuritystructures
• Political,socialandeconomicissuesthreatentruecenterofgravityoffutureconflicts:resilienceofpopulationsofengagednations
• Canchallengesocialcompacts
• Alsothreatenpossiblede-globalization*• Localproductionofmanufacturingandservices• Installednewenergyproductionisnowdominatedbylocal sources-- solar,wind,hydro,andfrackednaturalgas.
• Explosionofproductivityinurbanandindooragriculture• Voterangerovertradepacts• BalkanizationofInternet
*TXHammes,“3-DPrintingWillDisrupttheWorldinWaysWeCanBarelyImagine,”http://warontherocks.com/2015/12/3-d-printing-will-disrupt-the-world-in-ways-we-can-barely-imagine/
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Reducing Pressures for Migration, Radicalization and Marginalization
Through “Collaborative Economy” Initiatives
The BROCADE Concept
Building Resilient Opportunities inCulturally Aligned, Diverse Environments
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BROCADE Shift Focus from THREAT to
OpportunityProvidesaframeworkto:
- Buildresilienceinunder-servedcommunities
- Byreducingriskand
- Providingcollaborativeeconomicopportunities(“Peers,Inc.”model)
• Airbnbreached650,000bedsin4years
Applymulti-sectorapproaches thatintegratechangesinPeople,Organizations,Processes&Technology
“Makehopepossible,ratherthanfearconvincing”-- RaymondWilson
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Potential“Platforms”forBROCADE(the“Inc.”from“Peers,Inc.”)
HighEfficiencyUrbanAgriculture/Farming/FoodSecurityLocalProductionandLogistics:3-Dprinting,etc.EnergyandEnergyStorageCleanWaterInformationandCommunicationsTechnology(ICT):UbiquitousConnectivityviaSkyFi;InnovativeLearning;ConversationalUserInterfaces(CUI);IncludeAppropriateCybersecurityfromtheStart
Health:Telemedicine;Cheap,WidelyDeployableSanitation,EnvironmentalMedicine
LowCost,CulturallyAlignedSheltersHeatingandCoolingGovernance,Security,CommunityDesign&Management:Sensors;GeospatialInformationSystem(GIS)data;BlockchainsforSecureLandTitlesandTransparentTransactionsPublic-PrivatePartnerships/CooperationInnovativeFinancialArrangements:e.g.,M-Pesa,Micro-Loans
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Region MENA,Sub-SaharanAfrica,UnderservedPeopleintheDevelopedWorld,etc.
5.AdjustasNeededandIterate
1.IdentifyHigh-LevelRegionalNeedsforIncreasedResilience
4.IntegratePlatformsandDeliverCapabilities 3.ProposeLocal
Solutions
PossibleProjects Community(separatenameforeachproject)
2.LocalizetoCommunities,ValidateNeeds
Applyframework tolocal conditionsbyintegratingseveral"platforms“todelivercapabilitiestomeetlocal needsthroughprojects
TransitioningBROCADE’s Strategyto Framework toLocallyFocusedProjects
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GMU’sLargeRoleinBROCADE• LeadprojectinAppalachiawithShepherdU• Otherprojectsdevelopingin:– Morocco– Ghana– Japan– Philippines
• STAR-TIDEStechdemoatGMUSept12-15– NearJohnsonCenter– STAR-TIDES(www.star-tides.net)accumulatestechforBROCADE
• Joinus!4/10/17 [email protected],[email protected],
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Converging4th IRTrends(1)• Trendscan’tbecontrolledbygovernments,onlyinfluenced–Mayneedto“restructureournationalsecuritystrategy,culture,andorganizationsaccordingly”• Howtodobetterwithforesight&strategicfutures?
• 4th IRwillaffectbusiness,government,andpeople– Challengeveryfeasibilityofgoverningby“systemsofpublicpolicyanddecision-making[that]evolvedalongsidetheSecondIndustrialRevolution”• “Whendecision-makershadtimetostudyaspecificissueanddevelopthenecessaryresponseorappropriateregulatoryframework”
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Converging4th IRTrends(2)– Trendssupport:• Hybridizationofwarfare,• Empowerment ofindividualsandnon-stateactors(especiallythroughcyber,autonomousandbiologicalweapons),and• Furtherblurringoflinesbetweencombatantsandnon-combatants
– Impactlikelytobemostprofoundonpeople• Willchange“notonlywhatwedo,butalsowhoweare”• Privacyissueswillbekey,butalsobiotechandAIrevolutions
“whicharere-definingwhatitmeanstobehumanbypushingbackthecurrentthresholdsoflifespan,health,cognition,andcapabilities,willcompelustoredefineourmoralandethicalboundaries”
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Do4th IRIssuesMeetWickedProblemsCriteria?
• Nodefinitiveproblemstatement:broaddisagreementonwhat‘theproblem’is
• Anopen-endedsearchforsolutions—nostoppingrule• Stakeholderschampionalternativesolutionsandcompetewithoneanother
• Constraintsareconstantlychanging– Paceoftechnology– Economicimpactsandresourceavailability– Numerousinterestedpartieschangetheproblem-solvingrules
• Interactivelycomplex—neediterativeapproaches• Theproblem-solverhasnorighttobewrong
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4th IRChallengesforDecision-Makers• Projectionsrangefrompessimistictooptimistic– Insufficientdatanow formajorpublicpolicydecisions
• Don’tacceptpassively:shape “afuturethatreflectscommonobjectivesandvalues”
• Worktodevelopcomprehensiveview ofhowtechisaffectingourlivesandallourenvironments
• Breakfreeoflinearthinking—”thereisnobox”– Thinkstrategicallytoturnthreatsintoopportunities– SuchasDiamandis &KotlerAbundance– Innovate!Improve!Repeat!4/10/17 [email protected],[email protected],202.436.6354,Skype:linwells
ImplicationsforResearch• Researchopportunitiesinmanyareas– C4I&Cyber,Engineering,Science,ConflictAnalysisandResolution,PublicPolicy,alsoBusiness&Education
– FocusatPolicy-Technology-Sociology-Economy interface• PromotechangeinhowOrganizations,People,ProcessesandTechnologycometogether– Linksecurityandsustainabilitygoals,public-private,trans-nationalmechanisms®ionalcooperation
• OrganizationsinEuropeandtheGulfarebuildingknowledgedevelopmentresourcecenterswith– Analytics&visualizationcomponent– Trainingmodulesandavibrantcommunityofinterest
• Allcouldbetiedtogether.Whowilllead?4/10/17 [email protected],[email protected],202.436.6354,Skype:linwells
QuestionsforStudents
• Networkedminds
• Whatelse?4/10/17 34
Whattechnologieswillyourchildrenusetobefuddleyouthewayyoubefuddleyouparents?Perhaps:
• Cyborgization ofthehumanbody
• Trans-generationalperceptiondifferences
• Genomemodification
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