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Wichita State University Overview of Composite Material...
Transcript of Wichita State University Overview of Composite Material...
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Overview of Composite Material Trends in Aviation Manufacturing
John TomblinTel: 316-978-5234
Email: [email protected]
National Institute for Aviation Research (NIAR)National Institute for Aviation Research (NIAR)
WICHITA STATE UNIVERSITY
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
The aviation industry is a major contributor to the economic vitality of Kansas and has the potential for significant growth as a national center for aerospace innovation.
Hawker BeechcraftHawker Beechcraft SpiritSpirit
CessnaCessna BombardierBombardier
BoeingBoeing
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Kansas Products
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
1.3 1.3
2.3 2.2
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Direct Payroll in Billions $$
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Aviation Economic Impact in Kansas
•• 36,500 direct jobs with a payroll of approx. $2.4 billion36,500 direct jobs with a payroll of approx. $2.4 billion•• Each aviation job generates an additional 2.9 jobs Each aviation job generates an additional 2.9 jobs •• Kansas delivers more than 50% of all U.S. general aviation aircrKansas delivers more than 50% of all U.S. general aviation aircraft aft
(1,263 aircraft valued at $3.7 Billion in 2002)(1,263 aircraft valued at $3.7 Billion in 2002)
Total Economic ImpactTotal Economic ImpactHistorical Projected
Kansas Aerospace Industry Forecast, for Kansas, Inc. – May 2006
•• 2016 State tax revenues 2016 State tax revenues forecast: forecast:
16% of total state payroll 16% of total state payroll $1.3B in state tax revenue$1.3B in state tax revenue
•• Wages expected to skyrocket in Wages expected to skyrocket in 10 years 10 years –– $5.5 Billion/Year$5.5 Billion/Year
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Composite Material Definition• Macroscopic combination of two or more distinct
materials having a recognizable interface between them
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Fiber Reinforced Composite Types (polymer matrix based)
Aerospace CompositesAerospace Composites
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State UniversityA Long History in Military & Space Applications
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Existing State-of-the-Art in Composite Aircraft Structures
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Barriers to Expanded Application
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Boeing 787 Composite UsageNearly all of the exterior surfaces are composites, except the leading edges of the
wings, the stabilizers, and the engine pylons
Carbon laminateCarbon sandwichFiberglassAluminumAluminum/steel/titanium
Composites50%
Titanium15%
Other5%Steel
10%
Aluminum20%
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
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Boeing's Plastic Dream MachineExcerpts from BusinessWeek, JUNE 20, 2005 and Boeing News Releases
• Boeing thinks its new 787 jet, built mostly of plastic composites, could remold the airline industry.
• Jets made of composites require far fewer parts, so there's less to bolt together.
• …since these plastics weigh less than aluminum, the planes should burn less fuel. … together with improved engines, 20% drop in fuel costs.
• …improve passenger comfort. The superior strength of the composite fuselage will allow the passenger cabin to withstand higher pressurization --equal to the air pressure at an altitude of 6,000 feet instead of the usual 8,000 feet.
• …it's easier to control cabin temperature, humidity, and ventilation.• …engineers are discovering that their composites are even tougher than they
initially imagined.… maintenance costs will be 30% lower than for aluminum planes. …corrosion and fatigue benefits are going to be astounding.
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
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Raytheon’s Premier I – All Composite Fuselage
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Wichita State University
Cirrus Design Corporation, Duluth, MN
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Adam Aircraft
Cirrus Lancair Starship
Citation X
Premier I
Scaled Composites
Bell Helicopter
Boeing 777 Boeing 737
Dreamliner
Boeing 747
Toyota Aircraft
The Institute’s Composite Family
SpaceshipOne
Javelin
Horizon
Global Hawk
X45 UCAS
Boeing 767
Predator
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Informational Brief
www.AeroStrategy.com
• AeroStrategy is a consulting firm devoted to aviation and aerospace sectors with offices in Ann Arbor and Amersham, U.K.
• A white paper highlighting trends in the aerospace supply chain can be downloaded at http://www.aerostrategy.com/commentary.cgi
• To learn more about AeroStrategy please contact:Kevin Michaels, PrincipalPh: (734) [email protected]
Hal Chrisman, PrincipalPh: (734) [email protected]
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Aerospace Comprises Approximately 15% Of The $50B Global Composites Industry
Sources: JEC composites, European composite directory and report 2002 –2003; aerospace figures from AeroStrategy
Aerospace excludes launch vehicles and satellites
Values are for end-use products
• The global composites industry, “notoriously difficult” to estimate, is worth $50B in 2004 according to JEC composites
• The automotive industry is the largest segment and is worth in excess of $12B
• Building and construction is a fast-growing segment and is now worth $10B annually
• Aerospace is the third largest segment…and a major consumer of carbon fiber given its focus on performance
• Wind power is emerging as a significant market and is now worth nearly $1B
2004 Global Composites Market ($50 B)
Automotive23%
Building &Construction
21%
Aerospace15%
Sports11%
Wind Power2%
Other28%
AppliancesConsumerElectrical MedicalMarine
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
The Aerospace Composites Market Is Worth $7.3B In 2006
2006 Aerospace Composites Market Total = $7.3 B
$3.3 B
$1.6 B
$0.6 B
$1.8 B
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Air TransportProduction
Military AircraftProduction
Business AviationProduction
MRO Services(all markets)
• Demand for aerospace composites (finished products only) is $7.3B in 2006
• Air transport production is the largest market segment for composites at $3.3B
• Maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services for composites accounts for nearly one-quarter of market value
Source: AeroStrategyNotes: excludes UAVs, figures in 2006 dollars
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State UniversityThe Use Of Composites In Modern Aircraft Designs Is Accelerating…
Sources: Teal Group, Boeing, Airbus, Composite Market Reports
• Military aircraft designs were early adopters of composites
– Performance oriented– Less cost sensitive– Unique requirements (e.g.
radar signature suppression)
• The latest commercial designs, led by the B787, A380, and A350 XWB, feature significantly greater composite content
• Airbus recently announced that it has added a hybrid composite/metal fuselage to the A350XWB design
Aircraft Composite Content For Select Airframes% of structural weight
A380RAFALE
F/A-18E/F
F/A-22
EUROFIGHTER
777
GRIPEN
MD-11
A330/A340
B-2
A320
V-22
747-400
A300-600
F/A-18C/DA310
MD-80 737-300757767
A350 XWB (latest)787
F-35 JSFA400M
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Next GenerationNarrowbody Transport
(expected ~2015)
*Military Aircraft in Blue
A350 (mid 2006)
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
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…And Will Underpin A Quadrupling Of The Aerospace Composites Market Over The Next 20 Years
Source: AeroStrategyNotes: excludes UAVs, figures in 2006 dollars
Aerospace Composite Market Forecast ($B)2006 - 2026
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2011 2016 2026
MRO Services (all markets)
Business Aviation Production
Military Aircraft Production
Air Transport Production
Next generation narrow body designs expected to be major catalysts
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Why The Shift?
Aircraft Composite Content For Select Airframes% of structural weight
A380RAFALE
F/A-18E/F
F/A-22
EUROFIGHTER
777
GRIPEN
MD-11
A330/A340
B-2
A320
V-22
747-400
A300-600
F/A-18C/DA310
MD-80 737-300757767
A350 XWB (latest)787
F-35 JSFA400M
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Next GenerationNarrowbody Transport
(expected ~2015)
*Military Aircraft in Blue
A350 (mid 2006)
Aircraft Composite Content For Select Airframes% of structural weight
A380RAFALE
F/A-18E/F
F/A-22
EUROFIGHTER
777
GRIPEN
MD-11
A330/A340
B-2
A320
V-22
747-400
A300-600
F/A-18C/DA310
MD-80 737-300757767
A350 XWB (latest)787
F-35 JSFA400M
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Next GenerationNarrowbody Transport
(expected ~2015)
*Military Aircraft in Blue
A350 (mid 2006)
Aircraft Composite Content For Select Airframes% of structural weight
A380RAFALE
F/A-18E/F
F/A-22
EUROFIGHTER
777
GRIPEN
MD-11
A330/A340
B-2
A320
V-22
747-400
A300-600
F/A-18C/DA310
MD-80 737-300757767
A350 XWB (latest)787
F-35 JSFA400M
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Next GenerationNarrowbody Transport
(expected ~2015)
*Military Aircraft in Blue
A350 (mid 2006)
Fuel & EmissionReduction
Falling ProductionCost
Push To ReduceMaintenance Cost
Improved KnowledgeBase (I.e. Better Design)
Emergence Of SophisticatedSupply-Base (E.g. Spirit, GKN)
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Composites Raw Material Suppliers Have Consolidated In Recent Years
Boeing
BAe
DASA
General Dynamics Martin Marietta Lockheed
Douglas
McDonnell Airbus
BASF
ICI FiberiteAmerican Cyanamid
Boeing Airbus
Hercules
BP DuPontHercules Hexcel
Cytec
Hexcel TorayCytec
1980’s Today
BASF Amaco Toho Toray Akzo Toray TohoHexcel Cytec
Materials (Prepreg)
OEMs
Fiber
Culver City
Boeing
BAe
DASA
General Dynamics Martin Marietta Lockheed
Douglas
McDonnell Airbus
BASF
ICI FiberiteAmerican Cyanamid
Boeing Airbus
Hercules
BP DuPontHercules Hexcel
Cytec
Hexcel Toray
Cytec
Hexcel TorayCytec
1980’s Today
BASF Amaco Toho Toray Akzo Toray TohoHexcel Cytec Toray TohoHexcel Cytec
Materials (Prepreg)
OEMs
Fiber
Culver City
Commercial Aircraft OEM – Composite Supplier Relationships
Source: Cytec
Note: Tier I and Tier II suppliers not depicted
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
Aircraft And Engine OEMs Are Increasingly Focused OnSystem Integration
Source: AeroStrategy analysis
Aircraft Production Supply Chain
Aircraft And Engine
OEM Final Assembly
Aircraft And Engine
OEM Final Assembly
Aircraft / Engine OEM
Internal Production
Aircraft / Engine OEM
Internal Production
Tier 1 SuppliersTier 1 SuppliersTier 2 SuppliersTier 3 SuppliersTier 2 SuppliersTier 3 Suppliers
Raw Material Suppliers
Raw Material Suppliers
• More focused on systems integration• Less internal production capability• Desire to work with a smaller number of Tier 1 primes• Significantly reduce direct dealings with Tier 2 and Tier 3
suppliers
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
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Tier 1 Suppliers Have Significant Growth Opportunities
Source: AeroStrategy analysis
Aircraft Production Supply Chain
Aircraft And Engine OEM
Final Assembly
Aircraft And Engine OEM
Final Assembly
Aircraft / Engine OEM Internal
Production
Aircraft / Engine OEM Internal
Production
Tier 1 Suppliers
Tier 1 Suppliers
Tier 2 SuppliersTier 3 SuppliersTier 2 SuppliersTier 3 Suppliers
Raw Material Suppliers
Raw Material Suppliers
• Taking on more integration and supply chain management activities formerly performed by OEMs
• Leveraging aircraft OEM aerostructures outsourcing – “available” market growing faster than overall market growth
• Entering more risk sharing partnerships• Facing consolidation (e.g. Spirit – BAE Aerostructures, GKN – Teleflex Aerospace
Manufacturing Group)• Struggling with surging demand, rising raw material costs, and shifting material
content
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
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Tier 2 And 3 Suppliers Face Significant Challenges
Source: AeroStrategy analysis
Aircraft Production Supply Chain
Aircraft And Engine OEM
Final Assembly
Aircraft And Engine OEM
Final Assembly
Aircraft / Engine OEM Internal
Production
Aircraft / Engine OEM Internal
Production
Tier 1 SuppliersTier 1 SuppliersTier 2 & Tier 3
SuppliersTier 2 & Tier 3
SuppliersRaw Material
SuppliersRaw Material
Suppliers
• Shifting distribution channels: less direct dealings with OEMs; more with Tier 1 suppliers
• Vigorous competition from low labor cost suppliers• Struggling with surging demand and rising raw material costs• May face consolidated demand as Tier 1s consolidate• In the long run, must address shifting material content
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
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North America• Wichita – Tulsa
• Salt Lake City
• South Carolina
Asia Pacific• Japan
Wichita Is One Of Several Aerospace Composite Clusters
Europe• Spain
• Italy
• U.K.
ansseC
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
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The Shift To Composites Highlights Several Key Issues For Wichita
• To what extent will other aircraft OEMs – including business aviation – follow Boeing’s lead?
• What are the implications of the shift to composites for suppliers focused on metallic work?
• Are there enabling technologies or processes that can improve the competitiveness of metal structure suppliers?
• How significant is the opportunity in composite MRO services?
• What is required to strengthen the competitiveness of Wichita’s aerostructures/composites cluster?
Porter’s Sources of Locational Competitive Advantage
Source: Michael Porter, AeroStrategy analysis
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH
Wichita State University
SUMMARY - Why Composites?• Superior performance when compared to steel or aluminum (in
many applications)• Reduces weight• Reduces maintenance costs• Reduces or eliminates corrosion• Better fatigue resistance• Less thermal expansion• Enhanced properties via tailorable properties
– Mechanical– Electrical– Anisotropic vs. isotropic
• Reduces cost (?)COMPOSITES ENABLE THE ENGINEER
TO CUSTOMIZE STRUCTURE