Why was this project funded? -Novel approach -Not business as usual -Uncomfortable -Confusing -May...
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Transcript of Why was this project funded? -Novel approach -Not business as usual -Uncomfortable -Confusing -May...
Modeling synthesis
Ecosystemdrivers
Ecosystem characterization (data)
Scientific evaluation
&Stakeholderassessment
B) Guidance for future management actions
A) Guidance for future empirical efforts
Why was this project funded?
-Novel approach-Not business as usual-Uncomfortable-Confusing-May not be possible in
5 years-Potentially very exciting
$$$$
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End-point #2: Fish production
Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF): a new methodology for managing impacts of multiple stressors in coastal ecosystems
TEAM: Tomas Hook, Tammy Newcomb, Craig Stow, Scott Peacor, Steve Pothoven, Steve Brandt, Hank Vanderploeg, and Tom Nalepa
NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratories: Craig Stow (lead), Stephen Brandt, Thomas Croley II, Julianne Dyble, Gary Fahnenstiel, Thomas Nalepa, Steven Pothoven, Henry VanderploegMichigan State University: Scott D. Peacor (lead), Michael D. Kaplowitz, Frank LupiUniversity of Michigan: Tomas Höök (lead), Dmitry Beletsky, Carlo De Marchi, Thomas Johengen, Donna KashianUniversity of Akron: Peter J. Lavrentyev Limno-Tech, Inc.: Joseph V. DepintoWestern Michigan University: Chansheng He Michigan Department of Natural Resources: Tammy J. NewcombMichigan Department of Environmental Quality: James H. Bredin
Overview
1) Background
2) Potential effects of stressors on fish production
3) Potential research approachesa) Modeling
b) Ecosystem survey and empirical research
4) Issues to consider
Yellow perch
Walleye
Percids in Saginaw Bay
Historically second largest commercial fishery in Great Lakes.
Walleye collapse ~1950 due to eutrophication, over-fishing, invasive species, etc.
Recent collapse of L. Huron alewives has led to improved reproductive success, but very poor growth and long-term survival.
Fielder and Thomas 2006 MI-DNR; Fielder et al. 2007 JGLR
Percid Production Requires a Balance Within the Ecosystem
Yellow perch
ZooplanktonBenthic invertebrates
Invasive Species
Moderate temperatures
Mesotrophic conditions
Balance between sufficient pelagic and benthic prey
Overview
1) Background
2) Potential effects of stressors on fish production
3) Potential research approachesa) Modeling
b) Ecosystem survey and empirical research
4) Issues to consider
WestR2 = 0.69p = 0.0002
April-May Maumee R. discharge(m3 / sec)
100 200 300 400 500
Lo
g10
(ag
e-2
yell
ow
per
ch)
(mil
lio
ns)
1
10
100
'87
'88
'89
'90
'91
'92
'93'94
'95
'96
'97
'98'99
'00
Ludsin et al, unpub. data
Loading effects on percid production
Recruitment linked to river discharge.
Mechanisms unclear.
Too much loading probably bad.
Ecosystem engineering and the disrupted food web of Saginaw Bay.
The substrate provided by the shells provides substrate for benthic plant and invertebrates, and increased light increases benthic plant production as well as potentially increasing predation intensity of visual (invertebrate and vertebrate) predators.
The red shaded species are non-indigenous species.
Invasive species effects on percid production
Black dot:Ponar samples for total benthos(1987 and 1988)
Circled black dot:Ponar samples for total benthos(1987-1996)
X:diver samples for zebra mussels(1991-1996)
Location of sites sampled for benthos in 1987-1996.
Year
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Den
sit
y (
No
. m-2
)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
Bio
mass (
g A
FD
W m-2
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Density
Biomass
Mean density and biomass of zebra mussels at sites with hard substrate in inner Saginaw Bay in 1991-1996.
Year
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
Bio
mass (
g A
FD
W m-2
)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Mean biomass of non-dreissenids at deep, silty sites in inner Saginaw Bay (1991-1996)
TotalChironomids
Year
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
Bio
mass (
g A
FD
W m-2
)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Non-dreissenid biomass; Shallow, sandy sites
TotalGammarus
Climate change effects on percid production
• Temperature is the “master variable” for fish
• May also affect:
– Watershed loading
– Water levels
– Community composition
Yellow perch bioenergetics
24oC
11oC
15oC
• Respiratory cost(g g-1 d-1)
• 0.0053
• 0.003
• 0.002
• Respiratory cost (g g-1 d-1)
activity (x2)
• 0.011
• 0.006
*Model run for a 20 g adult yellow perch (5942 J/g); Chironomid (3138 J/g); Zoop. (2510 J/g)
Yellow perch bioenergetics
24oC
11oC
15oC
• Maintenance consumption(g/d)
• 0.934
• 0.517
• 0.301
• Maintenanceconsumption (g/d)
activity (x2)
• 1.89
• 1.05
*Model run for a 20 g adult yellow perch (5942 J/g); Chironomid (3138 J/g); Zoop. (2510 J/g)
Overview
1) Background
2) Potential effects of stressors on fish production
3) Potential research approachesa) Modeling
b) Ecosystem survey and empirical research
4) Issues to consider
Fish Models
Coupled bio-physical 3D
models
Empirically based
(Bayesian)
Simple statistical (e.g.
regression)
Artificial Neural
network
EcosystemStressors
Eco
syst
em
Mo
del
s
Ecosystem Characterization
Fish community dynamics
Water quality &
Human health
Eco
syst
em
en
dp
oin
ts
• Land & Resource use
• Climate Change• Invasive Species
• Watershed model• Hydrodynamic model• Biophysical data and
processes
Recommendations for ecosystem characterization•Experimental•Monitoring•Synthesis
Socio-economic integration to guide management•Economic models•Public preference •Workshops
MI-DNR Saginaw Bay Surveys
• Spring sampling of river spawning walleye (1981-present)
• Fall bay-wide surveys of fish populations– Gillnet (1989-present)– Bottom trawls (1971- or 1986-present)– Abundance, size, condition, age, diets
• Smattering of additional data from 1926-present
Empirical models
1) Regression models -(e.g., Fielder et al. 2007 JGLR)
2) Neural networks -(trained on meta-data and then applied)
3) Bayesian probability networks -(hocus-pocus vodoo)
Coupled 3-D process –based models
• Saginaw Bay Ecosystem Model (SAGEM)– Deterministic, process-based model– Phytoplankton model first developed in 1970’s– Updated to include:
• Multi-class phytoplankton• Zebra mussel bioenergetics• PCB fate, transport and lower food web bioaccumulation• Benthic algae productivity
– Latest version: Bierman et al. 2005 JGLR 2005
• Will be coupled to fish individual-based model
Next Individual
Add new individuals
Forageƒ(fish size, temperature, prey densities,
water clarity)
Respire (bioenergetics)ƒ(fish size, temperature, food consumed)
Predation Mortalityƒ(fish size, current location)
Starvation Mortalityƒ(fish size, % storage tissue)
Move?ƒ(fish size, current location)
Next Day
Loop through individuals
Swimming distance
Reactive distance and encounterrate
Optimal foraging
Foraging:
Stochastic capture success Consumption
Overview
1) Background
2) Potential effects of stressors on fish production
3) Potential research approachesa) Modeling
b) Ecosystem survey and empirical research
4) Issues to consider
Fish-related ecosystem chracterization
Coupled bio-physical 3D
models
Empirically based
(Bayesian)
Simple statistical (e.g.
regression)
Artificial Neural
network
EcosystemStressors
Ec
os
yste
m
Mo
de
ls
Ecosystem Characterization
Fish community dynamics
Water quality &
Human health
Ec
os
yste
m
en
dp
oin
ts
• Land & Resource use
• Climate Change• Invasive Species
• Watershed model• Hydrodynamic model• Biophysical data and
processes
Recommendations for ecosystem characterization•Experimental•Monitoring•Synthesis
Socio-economic integration to guide management•Economic models•Public preference •Workshops
Fish samplingCollect (monthly spring-fall)
1) Young percids 2) Potential interacting biota
preycompetitorspredators
Fish samplingQuantify:fish sizeagedietsgrowth (incl. short-term)mortality
Relate to:available preyphysical conditionspredation pressure
Dreissenid Abundance and Biomass:Needed for estimates of nutrient excretion, filtering capacity, and materials cycling (carbon, energy).
Key question: has the population remained stable since 1994-1996?
Macroinvertebrate Abundance and Biomass:Needed for estimates of food available to fish.
Emphasis on the dominant taxa: (Chironomidae at deep sites and Gammarus sp. at shallow sites.)
Proposed Effort for Benthic Community
Zooplankton sampling
Vertical tows of 64µm net
Collect small zooplankters
Oblique tows of 153µm net
Collect large zooplankters
Experimental Research
Examples:
• Effects of water clarity on fish foraging
• Effects of dreissenid shells on fish foraging efficiency
• Effects of dreissenids on P-availability
Overview
1) Background
2) Potential effects of stressors on fish production
3) Potential research approachesa) Modeling
b) Ecosystem survey and empirical research
4) Issues to consider
Nearshore sampling
• Nearshore areas potentially important nursery grounds
• Nearshore sampling not described in proposal
• How will we consider these habitats?