Why time complicates climate change - and what to do about it
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Transcript of Why time complicates climate change - and what to do about it
Climate change and time traps …and what to do
Disclaimer: not necessarily the views of the Welsh Government
Time trap 1: environmental inertia
Modelled warmingIPCC emissions scenarios
Source: Hadley Centre
Time trap 2: infrastructure upgrade
Time trap 3: innovation
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Toyota hybrid sales
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0
1,000,000.0
2,000,000.0
3,000,000.0
4,000,000.0
5,000,000.0
6,000,000.0
7,000,000.0
8,000,000.0
9,000,000.0
10,000,000.0
Toyota total sales - hybrid and non-hybrid
Time trap 4: changing human behaviour
Smoking prevalence All > age 16 (Britain)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Time trap 5: economic expectations
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.0
10x
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.0
2.4% per person per year
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 20700.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.0
7x
GDP per capita current US$
CO
2 em
issi
on
s p
er c
apit
a (t
on
nes
/yea
r)GDP growth has huge GHG increase potential
World Bank – World Development Indicators . Visualisation by Google public data explorer
Most important issues facing Britain
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pollution / environment
Peak concern on climate
change
Ozone hole
Most important issues facing Britain
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Economy
Unemployment
Non-negotiable?
Living within ecological limits is the non negotiable basis for our social and economic development
Jonathan Porritt
The negotiation
Time trap 6: price expectations
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160 Oil price US$/barrel Brent crude
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
50
100
150
200
250
300
Shadow cost of carbon £/tCO2 EU ETS carbon price
Carbon price expectations
Part 2: What to do about it?
What to do 1: just stop it!
Stop it! The 2oC commitment…
Developing countries peak in 2020 and fall at
8% per year after
Developed countries peak in 2010 and fall at
10% per year after
Anderson K , Bows A Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:20-44
CO2 scenarios for approximately 37% chance of not exceeding 2°C.
What to do 2: form clubs
20 countries - 80% emissions
Source: Garnaut Climate Change Review
Concentration in innovation investment
0
20
40
60
80
100%
J apan China France Korea Brazil
UnitedStates Germany
UnitedKingdom
IndiaCanada
Russia
Gross expenditure on public & private R&D , 2007Percentage share of global total
Source: David Victor, Global Warming Gridlock - citing UNESCO data
What to do 3: switch to policies & measures
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Create a carbon price 2010= 1.0
• Globally co-ordinated carbon tax• Nationally collected• Predictably rising• Very long term• No shocks
What to do 4: pricing not quantities
What to do 5: deals• Nuclear fuel cycle management• LNG infrastructure for China• Forest and sink protection• Grid infrastructure for desert solar concentrators• Product and building energy efficiency standards• Water trading and river basin management• Carbon pricing with border tax adjustments• Global sectoral agreements – automotive, aviation, steel
• Etc etc…
What to do 6: focus on ‘no regrets’
10
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
En
erg
y d
en
sity
by
we
igh
t (w
att
ho
urs
/ k
g)
Energy density by volume (watt hours / litre)
10,000
1,000
100
Gaseous fuels
CNG
Hydrogen absorbing
alloy
Hydrogen
Liquid fuelsEthanol
Gasoline
Bio-dieselDiesel
What to do 7: innovation strategy
Batteries
Lithium-ionNickel metal
Lead
Source: Toyota
Energy storage density
What to do 8: emphasise adaptation
Misallocation: low carbon vs adaptation?
Source: Policy Exchange, Delivering 21st Infrastructure for Britain, 2009
Anticipate harmful mal-adaptations
What to do 9: the geoengineering hedge
What to do 10: future proofing
What to do? Ten thoughts…1. Stop it!2. Clubs3. Policies & measures4. Global carbon price5. Deals6. No-regrets7. Innovation8. Adaptation9. Geoengineering hedge10.Future proofing
Six time traps1. Environmental response2. Infrastructure3. Innovation4. Human behaviour5. Economic expectations6. Price signals
Thank you