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calculation of its national interests, not by momentary popular passions. Ukraine has

never been part of U.S vital national interests and such regions therefore do not merit

serious U.S engagement when so much more is at stake. Furthermore, NATO

currently exists largely in virtue of U.S military and financial support, therefore even

if this initiative provokes a backlash from NATO allies; the benefits to U.S long-term

interests in containing the rise of China and neutralizing a coalition to balance against

U.S influence still massively outweigh such immediate and momentary response.

The second reason for pursuing detente with Russia is that, the U.S needs

Russia in order to contain China as China is rapidly rising and aggressively carving

out its own sphere of influence in Asia. During his term as the Chancellor of Imperial

Germany, Bismarck once said to the effect that in a game of five powers, one should

stay on the side of three. Similarly, in a game of three powers: U.S, Russia and China,

the U.S should ensure that it stays on the side of two, or at least prevent the other two

from forming a balancing coalition. Yet, as the current U.S efforts to "pivot to Asia"

are irritating a China that sees East Asia as its own backyard and therefore would seek

to resist and rollback all outside influences.

This will mean a long-term confrontation between the U.S and China because

this is a region where the U.S cannot afford to lose ground to China. What is at stake

is the security of vital Asian allies like Japan, South Korea and the Philippines as well

as numerous crucial bases from where the U.S military can continue to deter security

threats and maintain its global hegemony. If the U.S allows China to have its own de

facto "Monroe Doctrine" then one day the U.S should expect China to replace it as the

sole global superpower just the way the U.S replaced Great Britain as the global

superpower in the 20th century.

U.S policymakers are clearly determined to prevent that outcome. However,

they are engaging in another large scale and open-ended confrontation with Russia

that provokes the memories of the Cold War, which lasted over four decades. The U.S

has been very firm in punishing Russian behavior with diplomatic isolation and hefty

economic sanctions. As Putin feels isolated, it is only natural that he seeks other

partners to escape the impending isolation, among which China is a shining candidate

due to its immense power and existing complex web of relations with Russia. So in

effect, by confronting both simultaneously, the U.S allows China and Russia to move

closer toward each other, as the $400 billion gas deal between China and Russia has

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powerfully demonstrated. This coalition is already underway and will only strengthen

over time as the U.S pushes both further away from itself, only to U.S detriment.

Fortunately, a Sino-Russian bloc is not generally the optimal outcome for both

Russia and U.S, as both do not want to see a China unsurpassed in both economic

power and military might. When China becomes powerful and confident enough, it

would naturally seek to change the rules of the game to suit its own interests, as this is

the only way to maintain its power and influence. Yet, this clashes with the U.S

determination to maintain the status quo because the current international order was

built by the U.S in order to perpetuate U.S global power and influence. For a different

reason, despite seeking close partnership with China due to U.S pressure, Russia is

also inherently uneasy with a powerful China for various reasons. First of all, no

country should be comfortable when a great power rises right on its border. This is all

the more true when China has a massive population living on the border of Russia and

across the border of Russia, in regions that were historically Chinese, before it was

forced to cede to Russia. This coupled with the fact that Russia has a very sparse

population as well as low population growth means that policymakers in Moscow are

likely to be very nervous to see a rising China. Lastly, if it is survival that a state is

seeking to preserve in a tumultuous world, Russia ideally would want to be the

strongest state in the system and therefore it would not want any state to surpass it in

any respect. Those reasons are sufficient to show that a Sino-Russian coalition is

merely a marriage of convenience made possible by U.S actions.

One must not forget that the U.S could not have gotten out of Vietnam the

way it did and probably "won" the Cold War without the Nixon-Kissinger duo's

famous "opening to China". Such daring foreign policy changes are unpopular but are

often necessary. At this moment, it might just be Obama and Kerry's singular

opportunity to serve their country and leave an indelible mark on U.S foreign policy

by having their own "opening to Russia".

Ngo Di Lan is an undergraduate currently pursuing a BA in International Relations atUniversity College Maastricht, the Netherlands.