Why on Earth Fusion? Fusion: Energy Source for the Future AAAS Annual Meeting John Clarke & Jae...
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Transcript of Why on Earth Fusion? Fusion: Energy Source for the Future AAAS Annual Meeting John Clarke & Jae...
Why on Earth Fusion?Why on Earth Fusion?Why on Earth Fusion?Why on Earth Fusion?
Fusion: Energy Source for the FutureAAAS Annual Meeting
John Clarke & Jae Edmonds19 February 2005Joint Global Change Research InstituteWashington, DC
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Thanks toThanks toThanks toThanks to
The Organizer of the SessionDale Meade, PPPL.
TheUS DOE Office of Science,
EPRI&
The many other sponsors of the Global Technology Strategy Project
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Why on Earth Fusion?Why on Earth Fusion?Why on Earth Fusion?Why on Earth Fusion?
Other energy sources are plentiful.Yes, population is growing and there are issues of supply, cost and environment with each source.But, historically speaking, technology development has proved deft at addressing such issues.So why on earth fusion?Over the years many reasons have been suggested, but today I believe one is paramount.While there are many uncertainties about future energy needs, the dominant role of carbon based fuel for the next fifty years is not one of them and . . .
We really do need some non-carbon energy options.
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Three Propositions Related to Three Propositions Related to Climate & Fusion Energy Climate & Fusion Energy
DevelopmentDevelopment
Three Propositions Related to Three Propositions Related to Climate & Fusion Energy Climate & Fusion Energy
DevelopmentDevelopment
Human induced climate change is a long-term issue with a characteristic time scale of 100 years or more, but with implications for present decision making.Climate change is all about technology and managing the development and deployment of succeeding generations of energy technology over the century ahead.Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations means that the largest changes to the global energy system are in the second half of the 21st century.
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Implications for FusionImplications for FusionImplications for FusionImplications for Fusion
The good news: The climate driven need for new technology will be largest when fusion is most likely to become available.The bad news: It’s a competitive world. It takes more than a climate constraint to bring a
non-emitting technology into the market. If a technology cannot deliver on cost, performance,
other environmental concerns, health, and safety issues, its competitors will.
Even if technically successful, fusion will compete with a portfolio of other technology responses.
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Bottom LineBottom LineBottom LineBottom Line
Fusion benefits from a climate constraints, but the benefit is relative.
On the other hand, the value to successful fusion technology development is potentially very high.
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Stabilizing COStabilizing CO22 ConcentrationsConcentrationsStabilizing COStabilizing CO22 ConcentrationsConcentrations
Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is the goal of the Framework Convention on Climate Change
Stabilizing the concentration of CO2 is a very long term problem
Stabilization means that GLOBAL emissions must peak in the decades ahead and then decline indefinitely thereafter.
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Assumed Advances In• Fossil Fuels
• Energy intensity• Nuclear
• Renewables
The “Gap”
Gap technologies e.g.•C Capture &
Sequestration•Fusion
•Biotech Energy
Stabilizing COStabilizing CO2 2 : : Base Case and “Gap” TechnologiesBase Case and “Gap” Technologies
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There Are No “Silver Bullets” There Are No “Silver Bullets” When It Comes to StabilizationWhen It Comes to StabilizationThere Are No “Silver Bullets” There Are No “Silver Bullets”
When It Comes to StabilizationWhen It Comes to Stabilization
Energy Intensity Improvements Industry Buildings Transportation
Wind and SolarBiotechnology Soils Biomass crops Advanced biotechnology
Nuclear Fission Fusion
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Geologic Terrestrial (soils, trees)
Advanced Transformation Systems Electricity Hydrogen Bio-derivative fuels
Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases
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450 p
pmv
550 p
pmv
650 p
pmv
750 p
pmv
652
248
328
464
208
2240840
100
200
300
400
500
600
700B
illio
ns
of t
onn
es C
OGF
2005-2050
2050-2095
Timing is Everything:Timing is Everything:Emissions Mitigation Under WREEmissions Mitigation Under WRETiming is Everything:Timing is Everything:Emissions Mitigation Under WREEmissions Mitigation Under WRE
Emissions Reductions from Reference to Reach WRE Path
Emissions Reductions from Reference to Reach WRE Path
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So If Fusion Technology Was So If Fusion Technology Was Available After 2050:Available After 2050:So If Fusion Technology Was So If Fusion Technology Was Available After 2050:Available After 2050:
Fusion energy would benefits from carbon taxes . . . the Carbon “Subsidy”
Each $100/tonne C is worth
$0.011 to $0.018/kWh(depending on the fossil fuel alternative)
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
$/to
nn
e C
450 ppmv
550 ppmv
650 ppmv
750 ppmv
Value of a Tonne of Carbon
Mitigation
Timing of Emissions Mitigation Timing of Emissions Mitigation Under WREUnder WRE
Timing of Emissions Mitigation Timing of Emissions Mitigation Under WREUnder WRE
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Estimates of the Potential of Estimates of the Potential of Fusion Power in a Climate-Fusion Power in a Climate-
Constrained WorldConstrained World
Estimates of the Potential of Estimates of the Potential of Fusion Power in a Climate-Fusion Power in a Climate-
Constrained WorldConstrained World
1996 GTSP Study “The Economic Value of Fusion Energy” assumed:
Fission phased out in W. Eur. & USAElsewhere Fission's Costs Decline @ 0.5 %/yr.No Carbon Capture & SequestrationFusion technology available beginning in 2035, but not
commercially available until 2050.Costs of operation declining to between $0.03/kWh and
$0.10/kWh.
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GTSP Modeling ResultsGTSP Modeling ResultsGTSP Modeling ResultsGTSP Modeling Results
Growing share of fusion power generation in the second half of the 21st century as costs decline.
Obviously, a greater share of power generation the lower the cost.
But only modestly greater market penetration under a climate constraint Due to competition driven technology advances.
15 Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute
450
pp
mv
550
pp
mv
650
pp
mv
750
pp
mv
2,469
1,051
526317
1,614
732
401262
1,258
593
331222
661
323186
127
368185
10775
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Billion 1996 $
Value of Having vs. Not Having Fusion - CBF
However, The Value of However, The Value of Commercially Available Fusion Commercially Available Fusion
Energy in 2050 Is Still LargeEnergy in 2050 Is Still Large
However, The Value of However, The Value of Commercially Available Fusion Commercially Available Fusion
Energy in 2050 Is Still LargeEnergy in 2050 Is Still Large
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The Economic Bottom LineThe Economic Bottom LineThe Economic Bottom LineThe Economic Bottom Line
Fusion benefits from a climate constrained world, but the benefit is relative.
Unless it can provide energy at a competitive cost—and the competition is not standing still—its role as an energy technology will be limited.
On the other hand, the value to successful technology development is potentially high.
Demonstrating the technical feasibility of fusion has a large option value.
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Fusion Research is Ready for a Fusion Research is Ready for a Burning Plasma ExperimentBurning Plasma Experiment
Fusion Research is Ready for a Fusion Research is Ready for a Burning Plasma ExperimentBurning Plasma Experiment
Computational, diagnostic advances have laid a solid scientific basis for understanding key physical phenomena at different time and spatial scales. Magnetohydrodynamics, microturbulence, plasma transport
However, like human biology or climate, fusion plasma behavior is the sum of non-linearly coupled interactions at all of these scales.
After nearly sixty years of research, ITER will explore the ultimate regime of fusion plasma phenomena. Internal fusion reactions will dominate the plasma. The fusion plasma will reveal its final, self-organized characteristics. The operational and technological hurdles will be clear.
ARIES-RS (Q = 25)
Estimated DevelopmentCost for Fusion Energy Has Been
Essentially Unchanged Since 1980
Cumulative Funding
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
ITERITER
DemoDemo
Magnetic Fusion Engineering Act
of 1980
Actual
Fusion Energy DevelopmentPlan, 2003 (MFE)
$M
, FY
02
19
80
FEDITER
Demo Demo
1/6-1/30 Value of Avoided Carbon @
550ppm
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So why on earth fusion?So why on earth fusion?So why on earth fusion?So why on earth fusion?In a climate constrained world uncertainty abounds: Carbon sequestration is the determining factor for fossil fuel
electric generation. A paradigm shift to a hydrogen economy is also needed to
allow continued use of fossil fuels for transportation. The competitive economics of hydrogen from non-carbon
energy sources depends on both fossil and non-fossil technology development . . . and their social acceptability.
Energy availability, relative technological progress, environmental preferences and security issues will all play a role in determining the outcome.
Given large uncertainties, durable policy conflicts, and potential consequences of delay:
Fusion’s Option Value Is Very Fusion’s Option Value Is Very Large.Large.