Integrity – Service - Excellence 1 Why Air Forces Fail; Learning From History’s Lessons.
Why Air Forces Fail
Transcript of Why Air Forces Fail
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Why Air Forces Fail
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Why Air Force’s FailKey elements consistently present in failed Air Forces:
Airmen not trained for the task at hand
Failure to understand the nature of the threat
Misunderstanding the opponent and training for the wrong fight
Relegated to a subservient role vs. land component
Why Air Forces Fail (University Press of Kentucky, 2006)
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Categories of Failure "Dead Ducks:” Never really had a chance
Poland in 1939, France in 1940, Italy from 1933 to 1943
"Hares:” Exploited advantages, but doomed by later blunders
Germany in both World Wars and Japan in WW II
"Phoenixes:” Rose from the ashes of early defeats
Russia in both World Wars; US and Britain in WW II
Arab Air Forces; Argentines in the Falklands
Deficiencies in industrial infrastructure are key factors in most analyses of defeat, as are mistaken decisions about technology and tactics, and the neglect of logistics and pilot training.
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Strategic, Systemic FailuresAir Forces don’t fail by themselves:
Failure occurs in national, strategic context
Failure to Anticipate: Nature of war, nature of the enemy, & new technology
Failure to Learn: Organizational / systemic deficiency lessons from other Air Forces & our own
Failure to Adapt: Inherent human reluctance to adjust behavior
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Case Study of the IAF
Spectacular successes, and near catastrophic failures, offer lessons for the USAF
Six Day War
War of Attrition
Yom Kippur
Osirak, Beka’a & Beyond
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Six Day WarDecisive victory through airpower
Won in a 3 hour air campaign
454 enemy aircraft destroyed
Operation “MOKED”
Rehearsed for a year:C2 by compass / stop watch
Parallel airfield attacks, radio silence
Enemy air forces in ruins
Rest of the war about taking terrain with total air supremacy
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Six Day War LessonsLesson 1: Employment
Offensive, independent, unconstrainedAirpower won decisively vs. superior foes
Lesson 2: Planning and training Keys to flawless execution
Lesson 3: Leadership and morale Wins over superior numbers
Lesson 4: Must destroy Will to resistEnemies’ operational tempo
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War of AttritionFailure to learn, adapt & anticipate -- Egypt, Jordan & Syria simultaneous fronts
IAF: Linchpin of deterrent posture--total reliance on airpower
1967-71 period would haunt IAF by ‘73:Strategic misuse of airpower
In-lieu-of taskingFocus on terrorism
“Enslavement to the Army”Success fed NATIONAL hubris
Downed 7 Russian-flown MIG 21's in single engagement
IADS threat widely known, but deemed manageable2 jets lost per month = “cost of doing business”The “new normal” = routine milk runs against increasingly lethal IADS
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War of Attrition LessonsLesson 1: If you fixate on the immediate fight, you'll fail to achieve
strategic & operational objectives, lose skills & lives, and fail to prepare for the next fight
Lesson 2: Failure to anticipate / adapt to ENEMY innovation is lethal
Lesson 3: Dominance is perishable
Lesson 4: Hubris kills
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Yom Kippur War
Training for a major war sacrificed to fight the War of Attrition
Bad habits of routine milk runs in support of the Army
Complacency set in, having survived ZSUs, SA 2s and 3s.
Precursor to war: Massive air engagement over Syria (9/13/73)
13 MIG 21s downed with zero losses, reinforcing hubris
NATIONAL failure to anticipate the threat and correctly employ airpower
- Yet IAF’s ability to adapt ultimatelysaved the day
By Oct 73 best jets battered by 6years of combat
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Surprise AttackPrecious hours lost debating authorization
IAF pleas for preemptive strategic strike against Egypt and Syria
Enemy allowed to attack first on 2 fronts IAF jets took off under fireEngaged in DCA and CAS
IDF considered air superiority a “God-given” right
Catastrophic attrition due to robust IADs
No tactics / countermeasures against SA 6/7
Actual losses heavier than acknowledged40 % -- catastrophic attrition in fighters!
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Verge of DefeatEffort to reestablish air superiority undercut by “joint” & political concerns
Leadership couldn’t make up its mind on center of gravity
Effort shifted to the front most at risk -- in the North
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Anatomy of Failure“Smart logistics" made a great business case, but a horrible warfighting case
Didn’t anticipate the speed of consumption of resources in ferocious combat against a well prepared enemy
Price = 5000 casualties (30 % officers)
Proportionally equivalent to 430K American casualties (in just 3 weeks of combat)
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Yom Kippur War LessonsLesson 1:
Complacency KILLSUnderestimating threat KILLSPreparing to fight last war KILLS
Lesson 2:Political constraints KILL
Lesson 3:Airpower is a strategic assetTactics adapted mid-fightSteep learning curve cost 150 jets (but saved lives later)
Lesson 4:Your allies might not bail you out Applicable only to Israel?
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Osirak, Beka’a and BeyondRedemption relatively quick:
Recognition of airpower as single point failure / successF-15s and 16sWeapons School trainingPrimacy within the IDFAir Staff independent
Pay off almost immediate: The Entebbe RaidKills against MIG 21s, 23s and 25sRaid on Osirak nuke reactor Decisive victory in the Beka’a Valley
Score: 89 to 2
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Lessons ForgottenBUT, with success came new complacency
Dominance taken for grantedFuture fight seen on the ground BRAC: Re-subordination to Army Lebanon & Intifada’s 1 / 2Airmen doing in lieu of taskings -- AGAIN
Diminished effectiveness against Hezbollah
Failed to anticipate rocket impactLess effective against asymmetriesService rivalries
Result: At best a draw militarilyBut a strategic / political defeat
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Things to PonderWarfare is dynamic & unpredictable
Success & failure are cyclical
Airpower is a strategic asset, critical to victory
Good armies lose without air superiority
Redemption is possible but fleeting
Dominance erodes over time
Over-confidence sets in quickly
Don’t take air supremacy for granted
The enemy will adapt, learn and anticipate