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Who creates trends in online social media
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Transcript of Who creates trends in online social media
Who creates trends in online social media.
The crowd or opinion leaders?
Leihan Zhang, Jichang Zhao and Ke Xu1
Amir Razmjou
Computer Science Student (MSc)
Azad University of Mahshahr (2007)
Business Intelligence Developer
Microsoft CRM WISP – Firewall Developer Microchip Embedded
Programmer
Brief Introduction
Swarm IntelligenceNetwork SecurityCloud InfrastructureComplex Networks
Influential hypothesis (Past)In the 1940s and 1950s, Paul Lazarsfeld, Elihu Katz, and colleagues (Katz and Lazarsfeld 1955; Lazarsfeld, Berelson, and Gaudet 1968) formulated a breakthrough theory of public opinion formation
Information Diffusion? (Now)
We are going to challenge Influential hypothesis by comparison of two Paradigms in two different eras
Influential hypothesis
Small minority of “opinion leaders”– stars, act as intermediaries between the mass media and the majority of society (circles)Two‐step flow• The “dominant paradigm” of media
sociology in 70s
In business and marketing, the idea that a small group of influential opinion leaders may accelerate or block the adoption of a product is central to a large number of studies
Individuals may be influenced more by exposure to each other than to the media
Duncan J. Watts 2007
Shortcomings of Influential hypothesis • Most devoted to inspection of underlying mechanism
not considering the time dimension.• It’s doesn’t belong to information age.
• The Internet• Micro-Blogging• While at the same time, the big-data of behavioral
records in online social media• Lehmann: Not taking into account external factors,
geographical location of people, their mood. • The traditional two-step flow theory is not applicable in
online social networks and the role of influential might be over-emphasized
• High popularity do not always imply high influence but relationship among ordinary users and the readiness of the social network to accept a novel item
• Harrigan et al. also find that it is the network structure not hubs that can substantially increase social the spreading of a message.
LOST IN TIME AND SPACE
• The jump in the occupation of users with of number of followers around 10^5 in p1 represents the failed diffusion.
• crowd’s participation in the early stage of the propagation can produce a massive diffusion. On the contrary, domination of opinion leaders in the early stage cannot guarantee the
• All the results are averaged over the entire set of slang words
• How come that contribution of users decreases substantially after specific number of followers?
It again demonstrates the fact that ordinary users occupy greater
proportion than opinion leaders for p2
The threshold we find here is close to Dunbar’s number
CDF curve of p2 exceeds the curve of p1 for small #Follower
It is in agreement with the existing hypothesis that a global trend is beginning from many small-scale trends and the population number of an efficient group launching small-scale trends shall be less than Dunbar’s number