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WhitePaper:PreliminaryAssessmentofIowa’s
EnergyPosition
PreparedfortheIowaEnergyPlan,IEDA,andIowaDOT
PreparedbyTEConomyPartners,LLC
February22,2016
PreliminaryAssessmentofIowa’sEnergyPosition
TableofContentsI.Introduction.............................................................................................................................................1
A.EnergyasanEconomicEngine....................................................................................................................1
B.DefiningtheEnergySector..........................................................................................................................4
C.StructureofthisReport...............................................................................................................................5
D.IowainaNationalSocio-EconomicContext...............................................................................................7
II.EnergySupplyandDemandinIowa.........................................................................................................8
A.Iowa’sEnergyProfile–Production.............................................................................................................8
B.Iowa’sEnergyProfile–Consumption........................................................................................................10
C.Iowa’sElectricityProfile............................................................................................................................16
D.Iowa’sEnergyprofileinComparisontoSurroundingStates.....................................................................18
III.EnergyasaKeyEmployerinIowa.........................................................................................................20
A.Iowa’sEmploymentGrowth,SizeandSpecializationinEnergySub-sectors............................................20
B.EmploymentCompensationintheIowaEnergySector............................................................................25
C.LaborProductivityintheIowaEnergySector...........................................................................................27
D.Iowa’sEnergyprofileinComparisontoSurroundingStates.....................................................................18
III.PreliminaryScenariosforEnergyChangeinIowa..................................................................................29
A.InitialScenarioDevelopment....................................................................................................................29
Scenario1:ContinuationofDecade-plusTrends......................................................................................29
Scenario1:ContinuationofMoreRecentTrends.....................................................................................30
Scenario3:NationalEIAForecasts............................................................................................................31
Scenario4:ProductionForecast...............................................................................................................31
B.ScenarioDevelopmentNextSteps............................................................................................................32
AppendixA:PerformanceComparisonbyEnergyCategory:IowaandSurroundingBenchmarkStates........34
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I. IntroductionThisreport,producedbyTEConomyPartners,LLCaddressesacomponentoftheTask1deliverableoftheIowaEnergyPlan–definedasprovidingan“assessmentofcurrentandfutureenergysupplyanddemandinIowa.”Thereport,goesfurther,however,toexaminethestructureoftheenergyindustryinIowaanditsroleinemploymentandjobgrowthwithinthestate.
ThereportpresentedhereinrepresentsjustoneearlycomponentofalargerscalecomprehensiveIowaEnergyPlan,andwillbefollowedupbyTEConomyPartners’nextphaseofworkinevaluatingstrengths,weaknesses,opportunitiesandthreats(SWOTanalysis)forIowainenergy,andanassessmentofenergyresearchanddevelopment(R&D)andinnovationcorecompetenciesinthestate.
LedbytheIowaEconomicDevelopmentAuthorityandtheIowaDepartmentofTransportation,andcomprisingaworkingcommitteeofstakeholdersandcitizensfromacrossIowa,supportfortheprojectisprovidedbyaconsultingteamcomprisingInovaEnergyGroup,LLC(Inova)astheleadconsultant,togetherwithspecializedprojectsupportfromElevateEnergy(Elevate)andTEConomyPartners,LLC(TEConomy).
A. EnergyasanEconomicEngineTheStateofIowahasidentified“energy”asanareaofstrategicimportancetothestateeconomyandforeconomicdevelopment.AsshowninFigure1,globalandU.S.demandforenergyandfuels,inalltheirforms,isunlikelytoabate.Globaldemandprojectionsindicatethatmoreenergy,inallitsforms,willbeneededtomeetworldwidedemandprojections.Figure1:GlobalEnergyDemand,RecentTrendsandPredictionsbySource1
1Source:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA)InternationalEnergyStatisticsdatabase(asofNovember2012).MorerecentdatadoesexistyetastheEIAischangingitsdatareleaseprocess.Thenextislikelytobepublishedinthesecondquarteror2016.
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Domestically,U.S.economicgrowthprojections,incombinationwithotheractorssuchasenergy-efficiencymeasuresandchangingproductionprofiles,leadtoamuchflatterprojectionforgrowth.IntheU.S.naturalgasandrenewablesareprojectedtoseeariseinenergydemandwhilemostothersourcesareflat.Between2016and2040,theU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationprojectsoverallU.S.demandtoincrease7.1%.Figure2:U.S.EnergyDemand,RecentTrendsandPredictionsbySource
Bothdevelopedanddevelopingnationeconomiesdependonenergytopowereconomicandsocietalactivity.Becausethedemandforenergyisassuredmovingintothefuture,energymaybeseenasprovidingarelativelysecureassetforthosenations,regionsandstateshavingrobustenergyresourcesortheinfrastructureandknow-howneededtodrivethefurtherdevelopmentofenergytechnologiesandsolutionstomeetglobalanddomesticneeds.
Energyis,however,ahighlydynamicsectorthatisinfluencedbybothglobalandlocaleconomictrends,andalsobystrategicconcernsoverdependenceonforeignfuelimports,environmentalconcernsoveremissions,andthepolicydecisionsofgovernments.Inaddition,energyextraction,conversionandgeneration,distributionanduserepresentanintegratedvalue-chainwithsubstantialopportunitiesforadvancedtechnologydeploymentandinnovation.Opportunitiesfortechnology-basedeconomicdevelopmentexistforthosestatesabletoattractandgrowR&Dactivityandinnovationcommercializationinenergyandenergy-relatedtechnologies.
Thereare,therefore,multiplepathwaysthatastatemayfollowinpursuingenergy-basedeconomicdevelopment:
• Astatemayexploititsnaturalfuelassets(suchasoil,gasorbiomass)togeneratecost-effectivepowertogiveindustryandcommerceacompetitiveadvantage.
• Astatemayexportunrefinedfuelsorenergyoritmayfurtherconvertfuelsintohighervalue-addedliquidfuels,chemicalsormaterialsforexport.
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History1980
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040
Petroleumandotherliquids
Coal
NaturalGas
Renewables
Liquidbiofuels
Nuclear
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• AstatemaybuildarobustR&Dsectorfocusedonacademicandcommercialresearchinenergyandassociatedtechnologies,attracting-inexternalresearchfunds.
• Astatemaybuildasignificantmanufacturingsectorproducingtechnologiesforresourcediscovery,resourceextraction,energygeneration,energytransmission,andenergyconservation.Itmayleverageitsresearchassetstodevelopnewenergyproducts,technologiesandservicesforsaleinthedomesticandinternationalmarketplace.
• Astatemayseektoundertakeenergyconservationandefficiencymeasuresinordertoincreaseenergyresourceavailabilityforexport,reduceenergyimports,lessenenvironmentalimpactsofenergyconsumption,andgeneratejobsinprovidingenergyefficiencyservicesandproducts.
Iowa,inseekingtodevelopastatewideenergystrategy,isinterestedinexaminingalloftheabove.TheStateseekstohaveadetailedprofiledevelopedofenergy’sroleintheIowaeconomy,toidentifytrendslikelytoeffecttheimpactofenergyontheIowaeconomy,tounderstandthekeyassetsofthestateintermsoftheenergyvaluechain,andpotentialopportunitiestogeneratetechnology-basedeconomicdevelopmentthroughR&Dandcommercializationofenergyinnovations.TheStateisalsoseekingtoidentifyopportunitiestoconserveenergyandreduceanynegativeexternalitiesassociatedwithenergydevelopment,generationoruse.
TheStateofIowarecognizesthattheenergysectorisahighlyimportantsectorandresourceforthestate,andseekstoenhancethesectorfurthertogrowtheIowaeconomy.ThereisanenergysectormomentuminIowauponwhichtobuild–withtherenewableenergystory,inparticular,beingastand-outperformer.ThegrowthofthebiofuelsindustryinIowa,togetherwithsubstantialgrowthinwindenergy(intermsofbothenergygenerationandtechnology/systemsmanufacturing),areverymuchindicativeoftheabilityoftheenergysectortogeneratenewbusinesses,wealth,jobsandgovernmentrevenuesintheState.Iowanowseekstofurtherrefineitsapproachtoenergy-basedeconomicdevelopmentandenergy-sectorefficienciesthroughthedevelopmentofaformalstatewideenergystrategy.TheStaterecognizesthatachievingthefull-realizationofenergyeconomicdevelopmentpromiseintheStatewillrequireaprioritizationofstrategicactivitiesandinvestments,backedbyarobustunderstandingofenergyassets,opportunitiesandchallengesintheState,thusservingtoguideStateactions.ToadvanceeffectivepublicandprivateactionsinIowafocusedonenergy,itiscriticalfortheStateandkeystakeholderstohavereliableinformation,identifyingtheneartermgrowthopportunitiesinenergydevelopmentforIowa,togetherwithadetailedandobjectiveunderstandingofitsassetsandgaps.Basedonthisobjectiveanalysisastrategicactionplancanthenbedevelopedtopromotethegrowthanddevelopmentofspecificenergy-basedplatformsmostlikelytogenerateeconomicgrowthfortheState.
TEConomyPartners,LLCisresponsibleformajorelementsoftheIowaEnergyPlanworkpertainingtodevelopmentofaquantitativeunderstandingofIowa’scurrentpositioninenergy,producingprojectionsforenergysectordevelopmentunderpotentialdevelopmentscenarios,anddevelopingaSWOT(strengths,weaknesses,opportunities,andthreats)assessmentfocusedonenergyresourcesandinfrastructure,thecurrentenergyindustryinIowa,theenergysectorworkforce,andR&Dandinnovationwithintheenergysectorandassociatedfields.
ThisreportrepresentsanintroductorywhitepaperfocusedondefiningtheenergysectorinIowaandsummarizingkeyquantitativedataregardingthecurrentstatusofenergysupply,demand,andthekeycomponentsoftheenergyvalue-chainwithintheState.
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B. DefiningtheEnergySector
Inperformingthisanalysis,TEConomyPartnershasdeployedadefinitionoftheenergysectorwhichisquitebroad,encompassingawiderangeofenergyandenergy-relatedsubsectorsacrosstheenergyvaluechain.Figure2showsthegeneralstructureofthisvaluechaindividedintothreeprincipalpaths:
• Theenergyproductionanddistributionvaluechain• Thedevelopmentandproductionofenergytechnologiesandassociatedservices• Thesupportingassetsandinfrastructurethatinfluencetheeffectivenessofastateforenergy
sectoractivitiesanddevelopment(energybusinesslocationfactors).
Figure2:TheEnergyValue-Chain,AssociatedTechnologyAreasandKeyLocationFactorsImpactingValue-ChainDevelopment
Developmentofacomprehensiveenergystrategyrequiresconsiderationbegiventotheevaluationofconditions,assets,businesstrends,etc.associatedwiththekeyelementsdepictedonFigure2.ClearlytheenergysectorisnotgeographicallyuniformacrosstheUnitedStates,andsomestateswillhavesignificantassetsinsomeareasbutnotinothers.Iowa,forexample,hasrelativelylimitedin-statefossilfuelresources,butdoeshavesubstantialnaturalresourcesavailableforenergygenerationintermsofwindandbiomass.Similarly,theR&Dbaseandindustrybaseandtheirassociatedcorecompetenciesvariesgeographically,andanalysisisthusrequiredtodetermineassetswithinIowa.Theoverallstrategy
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tobedevelopedbyInovaEnergyGroup,theirsubcontractorElevateEnergy,andTEConomyPartnerswilladdresskeyelementspertainingtotheenergyvaluechainandenergyindustryandinnovationecosystemwithinIowa.
Assessinganyeconomicsector,includingtheenergysector,firstrequiresthatitbedefined.TEConomyPartnershasdevelopedanindustrydefinitionoftheenergysectorwhichcomprisesindividualdetailed,6-digitNorthAmericanIndustrialClassificationSystem(NAICS)industrysectorswiththesethenaggregatedintorelatedgroups(called“energysubsectors”).Table1liststheNAICSincludedintheanalysisoftheenergyindustry.
C. StructureofThisReport
Thiswhitepaperisstructuredasfollows:
• FirstIowa’seconomyandbasicdemographicsarepresentedtoprovidethereaderwithcontextregardingthesizeoftheeconomy,statepopulationandothercharacteristics.
• Second,TEConomyPartnerspresentsanassessmentoftheenergysector’seconomicdevelopmentprofileintheStateintermsofemploymentacrosstheindustryasdefinedinTable1andoutlineswhichsectorsaregrowingordeclininginimportanceasdefinedbyemploymentvolume.
• Third,anassessmentisprovidedofemploymentcompensationintheenergysectorversusothersectorsoftheIowaeconomy.
• Fourth,dataispresentedonenergysupplyinIowaandthetypesofenergygenerated.DataarealsoprovidedforthestatesadjoiningIowato,again,helpplacedataincontext.
• Fifth,dataisprovidedprofilingtheconsumptionofenergybyenergytypeintheState.DataarealsoprovidedforthestatesadjoiningIowa.
• Sixth,somepreliminaryscenariosarepresentedregardingthefutureenergyprofileinthestateextrapolatingfromrecenttrends.Itshouldbenotedthatonlyrelativelysimplisticscenariosareshowninthiswhitepaper,andmoredetailedandsophisticatedscenarioprojectionswillbemadeasmoreresearchiscompletedoverthecourseofthefullenergyproject.
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Table1:IndustryNAICSCodesIncludedinDefinitionofEnergySectorinIowaandSubsectorstowhichtheseNAICSareAssigned
NAICSCode IndustryTitle EnergySubsectorSubsector
325190 OtherOrganicChemicals BiodieselProduction
325193 EthylAlcoholManufacturing EthanolProduction
211111 CrudePetroleumandNaturalGasExtraction Extraction/ResourceDevelopment
211112 NaturalGasLiquidExtraction Extraction/ResourceDevelopment
212111 BituminousCoalandLigniteSurfaceMining Extraction/ResourceDevelopment
213111 DrillingOilandGasWells Extraction/ResourceDevelopment
213112 SupportActivitiesforOilandGasOperations Extraction/ResourceDevelopment
213113 SupportActivitiesforCoalMining Extraction/ResourceDevelopment
424710 PetroleumBulkStationsandTerminals PetroleumProducts&Wholesale
424720 PetroleumandPetroleumProductsMerchantWholesalers(exceptBulkStationsandTerminals) PetroleumProducts&Wholesale
454311 HeatingOilDealers PetroleumProducts&Wholesale
454312 LiquefiedPetroleumGas(BottledGas)Dealers PetroleumProducts&Wholesale
454319 OtherFuelDealers PetroleumProducts&Wholesale
333611 TurbineandTurbineGeneratorSetUnitsManufacturing OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage
335911 StorageBatteryManufacturing OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage
335912 PrimaryBatteryManufacturing OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage
221111 HydroelectricPowerGeneration PowerGeneration
221112 FossilFuelElectricPowerGeneration PowerGeneration
221113 NuclearElectricPowerGeneration PowerGeneration
221119 OtherElectricPowerGeneration PowerGeneration
221121 ElectricBulkPowerTransmissionandControl PowerTransmission/Distribution
221122 ElectricPowerDistribution PowerTransmission/Distribution
221210 NaturalGasDistribution PowerTransmission/Distribution
221330 SteamandAirConditioningSupply PowerTransmission/Distribution
237120 OilandGasPipelineandRelatedStructuresConstruction PowerTransmission/Distribution
237130 Power/CommunicationLineandRelatedStructuresConstruction PowerTransmission/Distribution
335311 Power,Distribution,andSpecialtyTransformerManufacturing PowerTransmission/Distribution
486110 PipelineTransportationofCrudeOil PowerTransmission/Distribution
486210 PipelineTransportationofNaturalGas PowerTransmission/Distribution
486910 PipelineTransportationofRefinedPetroleumProducts PowerTransmission/Distribution
486990 AllOtherPipelineTransportation PowerTransmission/Distribution
324110 PetroleumRefineries Refineries
Note:TheOtherRenewableEnergyandStoragesubsectoronlyincludesNAICSsectorswhereadominantproportionofthesectorisinvolvedinenergy-relatedactivities.Forexample,NAICS:334413-Semiconductorandrelateddevicemanufacturingincludessolarphotovoltaiccells,butthevastmajorityofemploymentandoutputinthissectorisrelatedtocomputer-relatedcomponents,notrenewableenergytechnology.
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D. IowainaNationalSocio-EconomicContext
ThefollowingstatisticsservetohighlightthesizeandstructureoftheIowaeconomy.
Table2:ContextualStatistics
DataVariable IowaStatistics
Context
Landarea 55,857squaremiles
Iowacomprises1.58%oftheU.S.totalareaof3,531,905squaremiles
PopulationEstimate,July1,2015, 3,123,899 Iowacomprises0.97%ofthetotalU.S.populationwhichis321,418,820
Population,percentchange-April1,2010toJuly1,2015
2.5%growth U.S.saw4.1%growth.(Iowa’spopulationhasgrownatonly61%ofthenationalrate)
LaborForceParticipationRate(Incivilianlaborforce,total,percentofpopulationage16years+,2010-2015)
70.0% U.S.rateis63.6%(Iowahasahigherlaborforceparticipationratethanthenation)
Medianhouseholdincome(in2014dollars) $52,716 U.S.medianhouseholdincomeis$53,482.SoIowa’sisjustslightlylowerthanthenationalfigure.
Totalemployerestablishments,2013 80,581 U.S.has7,488,353employerestablishments.Iowahas1.08%ofthenationalnumber,aboutinlinewithIowa’spercentofU.S.population.
Unemploymentrate(December2015) 3.4% U.S.ratewas5.0%Iowaisperformingbetteronunemploymentthatthenation,witharate32%lowerthanthenation.
TotalPrivateSectorEmployment 1,314,600jobs
Iowaaccountsfor1.1%oftheU.S.totalprivatesectoremploymentin2015.
TotalManufacturingEmployment 216,100jobs Iowaaccountsfor1.8%oftheU.S.totalmanufacturingemploymentin2015.
TotalGrossStateOutput
$169.7billion Iowaaccountsfor1.0%ofU.S.GDPin2014.
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II. EnergySupplyandDemandinIowa
Anenergystrategyneedsastartingpoint,abaselinemeasureoftheenergysectorinIowaagainstwhichexpectationsforgrowthcanbesetandmetricsformeasuringdevelopmentprogresscalibrated.TEConomyPartnersaccessedabroadrangeofinformationanddataresourcesinordertodevelopadata-drivenassessmentofIowa’scurrentenergyprofile.2A. Iowa’sEnergyProfile-Production
Iowaisanetimporterofenergy,consumingmorethandoubletheamountofenergythanitproduces(seeTable3).Basedonthisenergybalance,Iowaiseffectivelyimportingmorerawenergythanitproduces.Table3:IowaTotalEnergyConsumptionandProduction,2013
TotalEnergyIowaConsumption IowaProduction Difference(Importation)
1,516.5trillionBtu 730.5trillionBtu 786trillionBtu
Source:DatafromU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration
WhileclearlyIowaisnotyetoneofthem,thereareseveralU.S.statesthathavetotalproductionthatexceedstotalconsumption(netenergyexportingstates),including:Alaska;Colorado;Kentucky;Louisiana;Montana;NewMexico;NorthDakota;Oklahoma;Texas;Utah;WestVirginia,andWyoming.Eachoftheseexportingstatesbenefitsfromsignificantreservesoffossilfuels,somethingIowalacks.Fromaneconomicdevelopmentstandpoint,itmaybeconcludedthat:
Conclusion1:Iowacurrentlyconsumesmorerawenergythanitproduces,andalsoimportsmorerawenergythanitproduces.Thus,fromabasiceconomicpolicystandpoint,increasingenergyproductioninIowawillenhanceIowa’sbalanceoftradeandbenefittheIowaeconomy.Similarly,investmentsinenergyefficiencywillhavebenefitsintermsofloweringtheleakageoffundsoutsideofthestatethatpayforimportedenergy.
Intermsofenergyproduction,IowahasasignificantlylessdiversifiedproductionprofilethantheU.S.overall.AsshownonFigure3,Iowa’sproductionofenergy(definedasenergyproducedfromdomesticIowaassets–i.e.notimportedcoal,naturalgas,fueloil,etc.)comprisedthreeprimaryproductionsources:Biomassfeedstocksforethanol(68%),renewableenergyexceptethanol(24%)andnuclearpower(8%).ThecleardifferencebetweenIowaandtheU.S.overallisattributabletothelackoffossilfuelresourcesinIowa–whereasfortheU.S.overalldomesticallyproducedfeedstocksofcoal,naturalgasandcrudeoildominatetheproductionprofile.
2DataforthefollowingtablesandfiguresinChapterIIarefromtheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrations,StateEnergyDataSystems(SEDS)database,2000-2013(mostcurrentlyavailable).
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Figure3.ProductionShare(Btu)byMajorSourceCategory,2013
Intermsoftotalenergyproduction,Iowacurrentlyproduces0.9%ofU.S.production—aloweramountthanmightbeexpectedgiventhatIowacomprises1.58%oftotalU.S.landarea.Again,thisresultsfromthelandinIowanotoverlayingsignificantfossilfueldeposits.
Itisclear,however,thatinvestmentinrenewableenergyproductionhasprovidedanimportantboostinnetIowaenergyproduction.WithouttheuseofIowabiomass,wind,andtoalesserdegreehydro,resources,Iowa’sproductionversusconsumptionenergybalancewouldbesubstantiallyworse.
Conclusion2:Withoutasignificantbaseoffossilresources,Iowahastocurrentlyimportmorethantwicetherawenergythanitproduces.Investmentinrenewableenergyhas,however,improvedthebalanceofenergyequation.
Intermsofelectricitygeneration,Iowaproduced56,853,000Megawatt-hours(MWh)in2014(SeeTable4)withthelargestproportionofthiselectricityproductioncomingfromcoal-firedpowerplants(59.3%ofIowa’selectricityproduction).ThenexthighestproportionofgeneratedelectricitywithinIowacomesfromrenewablewindpower(28.7%)andnuclearpowerwhichgenerated7.3%ofIowa’selectricityproductionin2014.
ItshouldbenotedthattotalelectricpowergenerationinIowahasincreasedsignificantlysince2001.AsTable4shows,in2001totalutility-scaleproductionofelectricityinthestatetotaled40,659,000MWhwhichgrewto56,853,000MWhin2014(anincreaseinproductionof16,194,000MWh,or39.8%).Totalelectricityproducedbycoaldecreased2.69%overthistimeperiod–droppingfrom34,665,000MWhin2001to33,733,000MWhin2014.ThegrowthintotalelectricitygenerationinIowabetween
Nuclearpower(electricity)
8%
Biomassfeedstock
forethanol68%
Renewableenergyexceptethanol
24%
Iowa
Coal25%
Naturalgas35%
Crudeoil19%
Nuclearpower(electricity)
10%
Biomassfeedstockforethanol
2%
Renewableenergyexceptethanol
9%
U.S.
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2001and2014hasbeenalmostprimarilydrivenbythegrowthinwindgenerationwhichrosefrom488,000MWhin2001to16,307,000MWhin2014,a3,241.6%increase.Someotherelectricpowergenerationsourcessawgainsinproductionbetween2001and2014.Naturalgas-poweredelectricitygenerationgrewby131.5%whilebiomassgrewby155.8%.Petroleumliquidsdeclined,butpetcokeincreasedsubstantially,andnuclearsawmoderatepercentgains.
Table4:IowaAnnualElectricityGeneration,ChangeinGenerationMix2001-2014(Megawatt-hours)
ElectricityGenerationSource3
2001Megawatt-hoursofProduction
2014Megawatt-hoursofProduction
PercentChange
2001-2014
Percentof2014IowaElectricityGenerated
bythisSource
TOTAL 40,659,000 56,875,000 39.9% 100.0%
Coal 34,665,000 33,733,000 -2.7% 59.31%
Wind 488,000 16,307,000 3,241.6% 28.67%
Nuclear 3,853,000 4,152,000 7.8% 7.30%
NaturalGas 593,000 1,373,000 131.5% 2.41%
Hydroelectric(Conventional)
845,000 879,000 4.0% 1.55%
Biomass 104,000 266,000 155.8% 0.47%
PetroleumLiquids 99,000 59,000 -40.4% 0.10%
PetroleumCoke 4,000 85,000 2,025% 0.15%
Solar(All-DistributedandUtility)
0 21,000 -- 0.04%
Other 8,000 0 -- 0.00%
Source:DatafromU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration
Conclusion3:Since2001Iowahasincreaseditselectricpowergenerationby39.9%.Thevastmajorityofthisnewgenerationhascomeintheformofrenewablewindpower.TheneteffecthasbeenasignificantdecreaseintheoverallpercentageofIowa’selectricitygeneratedbyfossilfuelswhichdeclinedfrom87%in2001to62%in2014.
Renewables-basedelectricitygenerationhasbeenrisingdramaticallyinIowa,comprising17,473,000MWhofgenerationin2014(30.7%oftheState’selectricityproduction).Themajorityoftherenewablesproductioniswindgenerated(93.3%orrenewablesgeneration).ThechangingfaceofelectricpowergenerationinIowaiswellillustratedbythefactthatin2001just1.2%ofIowa’selectricitywasgeneratedbywind(with85.3%generatedbyimportedcoal),whereasin2014windgenerated28.67%ofIowaelectricity(andcoaldroppedto59.31%).
B. Iowa’sEnergyProfile-Consumption
JustasIowa’senergyproductionprofilediffersfromthatoftheU.S.overall,sodoesIowa’senergyconsumption.Iowa’seconomyismoreindustrially-intensivethantheU.S.economyoverall,andthisisreflectedinthefactthatIowaaccountsfor2.4%ofindustrialenergyconsumptionintheU.S.butcomprisesonly0.97%oftheU.S.population.ItispredominantlyIowa’sstrongindustrialeconomy,whichincludesagricultureandbiofuelsproductioninadditiontomanufacturing,thataccountsfor3IncludesbothutilityscaleplantsandIPP/CHPelectricitygeneration,plusdistributedsolar.U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration.
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Iowa’senergyconsumptionprofilelookingdifferenttothatoftheU.S.overall.Iowa'sthreelargestmanufacturingindustriesaremachinery,foodandbeverages,andchemicals.Takentogetherthesethreeindustriesaccountforalmosttwo-thirdsofIowa'smanufacturinggrossdomesticproduct(GDP).Iowaconsistentlyranksamongthetop10statesinthenationinshareofGDPfrommanufacturing.Transportationisthestate'ssecondlargestenergy-consumingsector.
Figure4.Consumption(Btu)SharebyEndUseSector,2013
Table5.EnergyConsumptionMetricsbyEndUseSector,2013
Iowa U.S.
Sector
2013Consumption(BillionBtu)
PercentChange,2000-2013
2013ShareofU.S.
2013Consumption(BillionBtu)
PercentChange,2000-2013
Residential 253,709 7.1% 1.2% 21,181,996 3.9%
Commercial 215,696 24.8% 1.2% 17,894,337 4.2%
Industrial 747,332 46.3% 2.4% 31,378,925 -9.5%
Transportation 299,747 10.5% 1.1% 26,689,441 0.5%
TotalEnergyConsumption 1,516,483 27.2% 1.6% 97,144,709 -1.7%
Conclusion4:Iowa,withamoreindustrialeconomythantheU.S.overallsees“industry”(whichincludesagricultureaswellasmanufacturing)consumingconsiderablymorepowerasapercentageofStateconsumption.
ItshouldbenotedthatIowaindustryoverallhasbeengrowingfasterthanenergyconsumptioninIowa’sindustrialsector.Inotherwords,theindustrialsectoroftheIowaeconomyisbecominglessenergyintensiveovertime,ormoreenergyefficientinitsoperations.
Residential21.8%
Commercial18.4%
Industrial32.3%
Transportation27.5%
U.S.
Residential16.7%
Commercial14.2%
Industrial49.3%
Transportation19.8%
Iowa
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ExaminingconsumptiondatabyenergysourceagainrevealsaconsumptionprofilequitedifferenttothatoftheUnitedStatesoverall(Figure5andTable6).Iowausesrenewableenergytoamuchgreaterdegreethanthenationdoesoverall,andalsousesmorecoal.ItislessreliantthantheU.S.overallintheuseofnaturalgas,gasolineandotherpetroleum,andnuclearpower.
Figure5.Consumption(Btu)SharebyMajorSourceCategory,2013
Note:SharesdonotaccountforNetInterstateFlowofElectricity(Exports)
Table6:EnergyConsumptionMetricsbyMajorEnergyCategory,2013
Iowa U.S.
MajorEnergyCategory
2013Consumption(BillionBtu)
PercentChange,2000-2013
2013ShareofU.S.
2013Consumption(BillionBtu)
PercentChange,2000-2013
Coal 402.4 -9.8% 2.2% 18,038.8 -20.1%
FuelOil 138.9 23.9% 1.7% 8,066.4 1.8%
Gasoline 198.7 3.7% 1.2% 16,338.6 1.1%
AllOtherPetroleum 76.5 -18.2% 0.7% 10,323.2 -27.2%
NaturalGas 306.5 50.9% 1.1% 26,801.8 12.5%
Nuclear 55.6 19.7% 0.7% 8,244.4 4.9%
RenewableEnergy 384.7 376.5% 4.2% 9,147.6 49.8%
NetInterstateFlowofElectricity(Export) (46.8) 354.1% N/A N/A N/A
TotalEnergyConsumption 1,516.5 27.2% 1.6% 97,144.7 -1.7%
ToprovideadditionalcontexttoIowa’schangingportfolioofenergyconsumption,Figure6profilestheconsumptionmixintermsoftheshareofIowa’stotalconsumptionforfouryears—thestartingyearoftheanalysis(2000),thepre-recessionpeak(2007),thebeginningoftheeconomicexpansion(2010)andthemostcurrentdata(2013).ThesedataalsoincludethecontextofNetInterstateFlowElectricity
Coal25.7%
FuelOil8.9%
Gasoline12.7%AllOtherPetroleum
4.9%
NaturalGas19.6%
Nuclear3.6%
Renewable Energy24.6%
Iowa
Coal18.6%
FuelOil8.3%
Gasoline16.9%
AllOtherPetroleum10.6%
NaturalGas27.6%
Nuclear8.5%
Renewable Energy9.4%
U.S.
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whereIowawasasanimporterofelectricityin2000and2007,butanetexporterofelectricityin2010and2013.
Figure6.IowaEnergyConsumptionShare(Btu)byMajorSource,SelectYears
Conclusion5:IowadiffersinitsenergyconsumptionversustheU.S.overallintermsofusingrenewablesandcoalconsiderablymorethanaverageandothermajorfossilfuelresources(naturalgasandpetroleum/gasoline)less.
Iowa’sexpenditureprofileintermsoftheuseofenergyintheStateisnotallthatdifferentthanthatoftheU.S.overall(Figure7).Themaindifference,again,isthatIowaspendsahigherpercentofitstotalenergydollarsonindustrialuse(25.5%)versusthenation(17%).
37% 34% 33%27%
17%19%
19%20%
9% 10%
9%9%
6% 4%
4%4%
15%15%
13%12%
3%2%
1% 2%
4%3%
3% 4%
1%1%
1% 0%
1%0%
1% 1%
5%10%
15% 14%
0% 2%6% 10%
2% 0%
-5% -3%
2000 2007 2010 2013
NetInterstateFlowofElectricityWind
Solar/PV
Geothermal
OtherBiomass
FuelEthanol
HydroelectricPower
NuclearElectricPower
OtherPetroleum
MotorGasoline
LPG
DistillateFuelOil
NaturalGas
14
Figure7.EnergyExpendituresShare($millions)byEndUseSector,2013
Table7.EnergyExpenditureMetricsbyEndUseSector,2013
Iowa U.S.
Sector
2013Expenditures($millions)
PercentChange,2000-2013
ShareofU.S.
2013Expenditures($millions)
PercentChange,2000-2013
Residential $2,755.5 51.8% 1.1% $250,457.4 61.3%
Commercial $1,965.2 88.9% 1.1% $179,359.6 58.1%
Industrial $4,395.5 90.3% 1.9% $233,272.3 65.3%
Transportation $8,149.2 169.8% 1.1% $712,216.5 156.2%
TotalEnergyExpenditures $17,265.4 110.9% 1.3% $,1375,305.9 100.0%
Between2000and2013IowasawitstotalexpendituresonfuelsincreaseatasomewhatfasterratethantheU.S.overall–withIowaexpendituresincreasing129.9%versusthenation’s119.9%.Theexpenditurecategoriesseeingthelargestpercentexpenditureincreaseswerefueloil(249.5%),biomass(woodandwaste,229.3%)andmotorgasoline(148.6%).Expendituresoneachofthesethreeenergysourcesincreasedataratehigherthantheydidinthenationoverall.Iowa’sexpendituresonretailelectricitydidnotincreasemuchmorethantheydidnationally(increasing62.8%versus60.7%inthenation).Overall,expendituresinIowaforenergyincreased10.9%morethantheydidforthenationoverallbetween2000and2013.
Residential18.2%
Commercial13.0%
Industrial17.0%
Transportation51.8%
U.S.
Residential16.0%
Commercial11.4%
Industrial25.5%
Transportation47.2%
Iowa
15
Table8.EnergyExpenditureMetricsbyMajorEnergyCategory,2013
Iowa U.S.
MajorEnergyCategory
2013Expenditures($millions)
PercentChange,2000-2013
2013ShareofU.S.
2013Expenditures($millions)
PercentChange,2000-2013
PrimaryUseFuels $13,490.4 129.9% 1.3% $1,003,224.6 119.9%
Coal $178.7 85.2% 2.6% $6,765.4 85.1%
Naturalgas $1,988.7 38.9% 1.7% $114,752.9 20.8%
Motorgasoline $5,580.8 148.6% 1.2% $467,337.6 143.2%
Fueloil $3,735.7 249.5% 1.7% $220,156.5 185.9%
Liquefiedpetroleumgases(LPGorpropane) $1,398.4 85.2% 2.5% $55,690.0 99.1%
Allotherpetroleumproducts(exceptGasoline,FuelOil,LPG) $575.6 121.1% 0.4% $131,898.7 129.6%
Biomass(Woodandwaste) $32.6 229.3% 0.5% $6,779.9 136.4%
RetailElectricity--AllFuels&Sourcesincl.NuclearandRenewable $3,775.0 62.8% 1.0% $372,081.3 60.7%
TotalEnergyExpenditures $17,265.4 110.9% 1.3% $1,375,305.9 100.0%Note:Primaryusecapturestheexpendituresonfuelsputtodirectuse.TheuseofthesefuelsforelectricitygenerationiscapturedwithintheRetailElectricitycategory.
Conclusion6:Iowa‘stotalenergyexpendituresforenergyhaveincreasedatarate10.9%overexpendituresinthenationbetween2000and2013.
16
C. Iowa’sElectricityProfile
Intermsofelectricityconsumption,Iowa’sindustrialsectorconsumesaconsiderablyhigherpercent(42%ofallelectricityintheState)thandoesthenationoverall(26.3%).
Figure8.ElectricityConsumption(Btu)byEndUseSector,2013
Table9.ElectricityConsumptionMetricsbyEndUseSector,2013
Iowa U.S.
Sector
2013Consumption(BillionBtu)
PercentChange,2000-2013
2013ShareofU.S.
2013Consumption(BillionBtu)
PercentChange,2000-2013
Residential 50,004 21.8% 1.1% 4,759,464 17.0%
Commercial 42,510 25.4% 0.9% 4,586,432 15.9%
Industrial 67,020 14.7% 2.0% 3,338,133 -8.1%
Transportation 0 0.0% 0.0% 26,017 41.7%
TotalEnergyConsumption 159,534 19.6% 1.3% 12,710,046 8.9%
Asimilarsituationholdsinoverallelectricityexpenditures(Figure9andTable10).
Residential31.3%
Commercial26.6%
Industrial42.0%
Transportation0.0%
Iowa
Residential37.4%
Commercial36.1%
Industrial26.3%
Transportation0.2%
U.S.
17
Figure9.ElectricityExpendituresbySector,2013
Table10.ElectricityExpendituresbySector,2013
Iowa U.S.
Sector
2013Expenditures($millions)
PercentChange,2000-2013
2013ShareofU.S.
2013Expenditures($millions)
PercentChange,2000-2013
Residential $1,618.7 60.7% 1.0% $169,112.6 72.2%
Commercial $1,051.5 62.7% 0.8% $138,229.1 62.4%
Industrial $1,104.8 66.0% 1.7% $63,934.9 33.6%
Transportation $0.0 0.0% 0.0% $804.8 111.6%
TotalElectricityExpenditures $3,775.0 62.8% 1.0% $372,081.3 60.7%
Residential42.9%
Commercial27.9%
Industrial29.3%
Transportation0.0%
Iowa
Residential45.5%
Commercial37.2%
Industrial17.2%
Transportation0.2%
U.S.
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D. Iowa’sEnergyProfileinComparisontoSurroundingStates
ComparingIowa’senergyconsumptiontonationaloverallstatisticsprovidesausefulperspective,butsotoodoescomparingIowa’senergyconsumptiontothesixstatesthatborderIowa:Minnesota;Wisconsin;Illinois;Missouri;SouthDakota,andNebraska.BycomparingtheseNorthCentralU.S.statestoIowa,perspectivecanbegainedonhowIowadiffersinenergyconsumptionversussimilarsurroundingstates.
Itshould,ofcourse,benotedthatthesesevenstatesarenotallthesameintermsoftheirfundamentalnaturalenergyresources.Severalcontainsignificantfossilfuelresources(primarilycoal,butalsonaturalgasandcrudeoil)–whereasIowadoesnot.Similarly,differencesintopography,hydrology,soilsandmeteorologicalconditionsmeandifferingpotentialsforrenewableenergyproductionandin-stateconsumption.
Table11presentstheoverallsummarystatisticsforIowaandthebenchmarkstates.Obviously,givensignificantlydifferentpopulationsizestotalconsumptionvariessignificantly–sodatahavebeennormalizedbyTEConomyPartnersintermsofconsumptionpercapitaandtotalenergyconsumptionasapercentofstateGDP,formoreappropriatecomparisons.
Table11.EnergyConsumption,IowaandBenchmarkStates,2013
StateTotalEnergyConsumption(MillionBtu)
Rank
TotalEnergyConsumption(MillionBtu)perCapita
Rank
EnergyConsumptionIntensityofGSP*
Rank
Iowa 1,516,483 24 490 5 9.22 12
Illinois 4,011,485 4 311 25 5.60 31
Minnesota 1,859,790 18 343 18 6.06 29
Missouri 1,857,005 19 307 26 6.81 23
Nebraska 871,805 33 466 7 8.14 19
SouthDakota 390,367 45 462 8 8.73 15
Wisconsin 1,804,018 21 314 24 6.42 26*Note:EnergyConsumptionIntensityofGSPiscalculatedastotalenergyconsumptionaspercentofGDP.
ThebenchmarkdatashowthatIowahasthehighestconsumptionofenergypercapitaamongthebenchmarkstates(wheretherangerunsfromalowof311millionBtupercapitainIllinois,toIowa’shighof490).IowasimilarlyhasthehighestenergyconsumptionintensityasmeasuredbyenergyconsumptionasapercentofGDP.Thesehighnormalizedrankslargelyreflectthesignificantindustrial-orientedenergyconsumptionwithinIowa.
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Table12examinesstatisticsforthebenchmarkstatesintermsofenergyexpenditures.Again,Iowahasthehighestexpenditurespercapitaonenergy($5,583.30percapitafor2013).Intermsofenergyexpenditureintensity,SouthDakotahasthehighest(10.54)closelyfollowedbyIowaat(10.50).
Table12.EnergyExpenditures,IowaandBenchmarkStates,2013
StateTotalEnergyExpenditures($million)
RankTotalEnergyExpendituresperCapita(S)
Rank
EnergyExpenditureIntensityofGSP*
Rank
Iowa $17,265.4 28 $5,583.3 7 10.50 19
Illinois $49,296.6 7 $3,824.2 39 6.89 42
Minnesota $24,689.5 20 $4,553.5 22 8.05 36
Missouri $26,721.7 17 $4,420.5 25 9.79 24
Nebraska $10,293.8 35 $5,507.7 9 9.61 26
SouthDakota $4,708.9 47 $5,569.3 8 10.54 18
Wisconsin $24,715.9 19 $4,303.7 30 8.80 30*Note:EnergyExpenditureIntensityofGSPiscalculatedastotalenergyexpendituresaspercentofGDP.
Conclusion7:ForIowa,undertakingastateenergystrategyisparticularlyimportantsinceenergyconsumptionandexpenditurepercapitaishigherthanitisinsurroundingstates,asis(generally)theintensityofenergyuseasmeasuredasapercentageofstateGDP.
AppendixAprovidesfurtherdetailoncomparativeconsumptionofspecificenergyresourcesacrossIowaandthebenchmarkstates.Benchmarkprofilesareprovidedfor:
• Coal
• NaturalGas
• Petroleum
• MotorGasoline
• FuelOil
• Propane
• Nuclear
• RenewableFuels(withbreak-outsforwind,biomassandethanol).
20
III. EnergyasaKeyEmployerinIowa
A. Iowa’sEmploymentGrowth,SizeandSpecializationinEnergySub-Sectors
AsdiscussedinChapterI,TEConomyPartnersusesafairlybroaddefinitionofenergyandenergy-relatedsectorsoftheeconomy(seeTable1).Thedefinitionnotonlyincludesindustrysectorsengagedinextractingenergyresources,generatingpower,ordistributingandretailingpower,butalsoincludesthemanyrelatedindustrysectorsthatprovidetools,technologiesandservicestotheenergyindustryortoconsumersofenergy.Ineffect,thedefinitionusedcapturesandbreaks-outthekeycomponentsoftheenergysectorvalue-chain.
ExaminingIowa’senergyprofileintermsofthisvalue-chainandthejobsitgeneratesinthestateisimportant,andgeneratingabaselineprofileofemploymentandemploymenttrendsacrosstheenergyvalue-chainisakeystartingpointforstrategicplanning.
Table1showsthefullcomplementof32NAICSusedtodefinetheoverallenergysectorinIowa.TEConomyPartnersassignedeachoftheseindividualNAICStooneofeightsubsectorsforanalysispurposes:
• BiodieselProduction
• EthanolProduction
• ExtractionandResourceDevelopment
• OtherRenewableEnergyandStorage
• PetroleumProductsandWholesale
• PowerTransmissionandDistribution
• PowerGeneration
• Refineries.
Table13summarizesmostrecentlyavailableestablishmentandemploymentdata(2014)fortheseeightsubsectorsandalsoshowsforcomparisontotalprivatesectorandtotalmanufacturingemployment.Intotal,theIowaenergysectorconsistsof849establishments,withacombinedemploymentof16,292(1.3%ofthestate’stotalprivatesectorlaborforce).
Theoverallenergysectorcurrentlyisrelativelyunder-concentratedinIowaandthereforenotseenasastate“specialization”sincethelocationquotient(LQ)4forthislevelofenergyemploymentreachesonly0.78(astatespecialization,asdesignatedbyTEConomy,requiresanLQof1.2orhigher).AtanLQof0.78,theenergysectorinIowaemploysapproximately22%fewerworkersthanwouldbeexpected,giventheenergysector’soverallshareofemploymentinthenationaleconomy.
4Locationquotients(LQs)areastandardmeasureoftheconcentrationofaparticularindustryinaregionrelativetothenation.TheLQistheshareoftotalstateorregionalemploymentintheparticularindustrydividedbytheshareoftotalindustryemploymentinthenation.AnLQgreaterthan1.0foraparticularindustryindicatesthattheregionhasagreaterrelativeconcentration,whereasanLQlessthan1.0signifiesarelativeunderrepresentation.AnLQgreaterthan1.20denotesemploymentconcentrationsignificantlyabovethenationalaverage.Inthisanalysis,regionalspecializationsaredefinedbyLQsof1.20orgreater.
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Table13:IowaEstablishments,EmploymentandLocationQuotientsfortheTotalEnergySectorandIndividualSubsectors,2014
EnergySubsector
IowaEstablishments,2014
IowaEmployment,2014
IowaLocationQuotient,2014
IowaEmployment%Change,2001–14
U.S.Employment%Change,2001–14
TotalEnergySector 849 16,292 0.78 22.2% 18.6%
PowerTransmission/Distribution5 428 7,011 0.88 -2.8% 25.6%
OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage 12 2,606 4.42 143.6% -7.7%
PowerGeneration 99 2,520 1.41 -5.1% -42.3%
EthanolProduction 40 1,845 15.71 3838.6% 225.1%
PetroleumProducts&Wholesale 242 1,699 0.88 -22.3% -20.5%
BiodieselProduction 14 550 1.37 310.4% -5.2%
Refineries 3 39 0.05 254.5% -7.6%
Extraction/ResourceDevelopment 11 22 0.00 161.7% 91.7%
TotalPrivateSector6 93,351 1,280,079 1.00 6.5% 5.5%
TotalManufacturing 4,048 216,834 1.61 -10.0% -25.8%
Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofBureauofLaborStatistics,QCEWdataandenhancedfilefromIMPLAN.
WhiletheoverallenergysectorinIowaisnotastatespecialization(asmeasuredbylocationquotient)thisshouldnotobscurethefactthatemploymentishighlyconcentratedamongseveralkeyenergysubsectors,withfour—ethanolproduction(LQ=15.71),otherrenewableenergy&storage(LQ=4.42),powergeneration(LQ=1.41),andbiodieselproduction(LQ=1.37)allrisingtothelevelofstate“specializations.”
SeveralofthesubsectorshavebeensignificantnewjobgeneratorsforIowaovertheassessedtimeperiodof2001through2014.OveralltheenergysectorinIowaemploys16,292personnelandincreasedemploymentby22.2%between2001-2014,largerthanthegrowthseennationally.Notably,biodieselproductiongrewby310.4%andotherrenewableenergyandstoragegrewemploymentby143.6%overthistimeperiod(alsoreaching2,606jobsin2014)whileethanolproductiontrulyemergedasastateindustrysectorgrowingby3,838%toreach1,845jobs.Inallthreecases,thesesectorsfaroutpacedgrowthratesinthosesubsectorswithinthenationoverall.
Conclusion8:ThoughtheenergysectoroverallisacurrentlynotaspecializedindustryforIowa,distinctniches(subsectors)existwithinIowathatarespecializedanddoshowsignificantgrowth.Inaddition,theenergysectorhasbeenasignificantjobgenerator,faroutpacingoverallprivatesectorgrowthinthestate.
Overall,employmentgrowthinIowa’senergysector,benchmarkedagainstnationalemploymentgrowth,hasperformedaswellasthenationoverall,andfarout-performedaverageprivatesectorindustrygrowthinthestate.Structuralchangesintheenergyindustryledtodeclinesintheearly2000’sinIowaandtheU.S.overall.Afterthisstructuraldecline,theenergysectors’employmentbegana
5Sub-sectorsshowncomprisetheindividualNAICSlistedonTable1.6Thiscategory,forcomparisonpurposesshowsallprivatesectorjobsinthestate(i.e.notjustthoseintheenergysector).
22
steadyperiodofgrowth,forbothIowaandtheU.S.,withtheexceptionofslightemploymentdeclinesduringtherecessionaryperiodbetween2007–2010(Figure10).ItshouldbenotedthatIowa’senergysectoractuallyonlyexperiencedoneemploymentdecline(2010).Between2010and2014,aperiodofeconomicexpansion,energysectoremploymentinIowagrew14.9%comparedto16.5%growthnationally(thisinpartduetosteeperrecessionarydeclinesintheU.S.energysector).
Conclusion9:TheIowaEnergysectorhasseensignificantnetgrowthinemploymentsince2001,performingatthesamelevelastheU.S.EnergysectorandoutperformingIowa’soverallprivatesector.
Figure10:TotalEnergySectorEmploymentTrendsforIowaandtheU.S.for2001through2014
Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofBureauofLaborStatistics,QCEWdataandenhancedfilefromIMPLAN.
Byanalyzingtheindividualenergysubsectors’locationquotientsandcomparativeemploymentgrowthratesversusthenation,itispossibletoseewhichenergysubsectorsareperformingmoststronglyforIowa.Thebubblechart(Figure11)isdividedintofourquadrantswithquadrantstotherightoftheverticalaxisinthecenterofthechartrepresentingareasofemploymentgrowthoverthetimeperiodevaluated(2001–2014)andthequadrantstotheleftcontainingsectorsthatsawemploymentdecline.Quadrantsabovethehorizontallinerepresentstatespecializationindustries,definedbytheirlocationquotientbeinggreaterthan1.0.Clearly,theidealplacefromastateperspectiveforasubsectortobeistheupperrightquadrant(specializedandgrowing),whilethebottomrightquadrantrepresentspromisingareasinwhichthestateisexperiencinggrowth,butnotyetachievedspecializationstatus.Thesizeofeachbubbleisproportionaltothelevelofemploymentinthatenergysubsector.
AsFigure11shows,theIowaenergysectorcurrentlycontainstworobust“star”energysubsectorsthatarebothspecializedandgrowing,thesebeing“otherrenewableenergyandstorage”(2,606employees
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Employ
men
tInd
ex(2001=100)
Iowa&U.S.EmploymentperYear,Indexedto2001
IATotalEnergyClusterIATotalPrivateSectorU.S.TotalEnergyClusterU.S.TotalPrivateSector
23
in2014)and“ethanolproduction”(1,845employeesin2014).The“powergeneration”subsectorisalsoastatespecializationforIowa,butexperiencedemploymentdeclinesoverthe2001–2014period(2,520employeesin2014).Overall,thesignificantsizeofthe“powertransmission/distribution”sectorisapparent,butthissubsectorhasheldatslightlybelowthenationalaveragespecializationwithaslightemploymentdeclineduringtheperiod.
Twosubsectors“extraction/resourcedevelopment”and“refineries”whileconsideredtobeemergingpotentialquadranthavesignificantgrowthratesduetoextremelysmall2001employment.Itshouldalsobenotedthatwhilethestate“refineries”subsectorincludes39employees;itishighlylikelythatthesethreerefineryestablishmentsareactuallyinvolvedinpetrochemical-relatedrefiningnotenergy-relatedproduction.
Figure11:IowaEnergyEmploymentSize,Growth,andDegreeofSpecialization(LQ)bySubsector,for2001-2014
Source:TEConomyPartnersLLCanalysisofBureauofLaborStatistics,QCEWdataandenhancedfilefromIMPLAN.
Conclusion10:Withintheenergysectortwosubsectorsrelatedtorenewableenergy–“ethanolproduction”and“otherrenewableenergy&storage”arethehighperformingsubsectorsforIowa.However,morethan40%ofthetotalenergysector’semploymentisinpowertransmission/distribution.
Inbreakingthedatadowntoafinerlevelofgranularity,itisevidentthatfiveofthe32energyNAICSindustriesarelarge(>1,000jobs)andspecialized(LQ>1.2),withthreeofthesefivealsoexhibitingsubstantialemploymentgrowth(Table14).Thesefiveindustrycomponentsaccountfortwo-thirdsof
OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage
PowerTransmission/Distribution
PowerGeneration
EthanolProduction
PetroleumProducts&Wholesale
RefineriesExtraction/ResourceDevelopment
BiodieselProduction
-0.50
0.50
1.50
2.50
3.50
4.50
5.50
6.50
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%
Locatio
nQu
otient,2014
EmploymentPercentChange,2001-14
ActualPercentGrowth=3,838.6%
ActualLQ=15.71
Quadrant 1Stars
Quadrant 2Transitional
Quadrant 3Divergent
Quadrant 4EmergingPotential
24
thetotalIowaenergysectors’employmentin2014.7Thesignificantgrowthofthestateethylalcohol(ethanol)productionisclearlyevident,aswellassignificantgrowthinthemanufactureofturbineandturbinegeneratorsetsusedinavarietyofenergy-relatedapplicationsfromwindturbines,tohydroelectricturbines,toturbinessetsusedinotherpowergenerationapplications.
Table14:PerformanceofLarge&SpecializedDetailedIowaEnergySectors,2001-2014
EnergySubsector NAICSDescription
Establishments Employment LocationQuotient(LQ)2014Number,
2014Growth,2001-2014
Jobs,2014
Growth,2001-2014
EthanolProduction EthylAlcoholManufacturing(325193) 40 1100.0% 1,845 3838.6% 15.71
OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage
TurbineandTurbineGeneratorSetUnitsManufacturing(333611)
8 220.0% 1,896 728.5% 6.37
PowerGeneration FossilFuelElectricPowerGeneration(221112) 77 -33.0% 1,759 -24.7% 1.60
PowerTransmission/Distribution
ElectricPowerDistribution(221122)
145 17.6% 2,846 -19.2% 1.26
Power/CommunicationLineandRelatedStructuresConstruction(237130)
158 41.1% 2,202 112.8% 1.20
Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofBureauofLaborStatistics,QCEWdataandenhancedfilefromIMPLAN.
Ofthe31NAICSenergyandenergy-relatedindustriescapturedinthebroadenergydefinition,Iowacurrentlyhasemploymentin23.Eachoftheseindustries,eachoftheeightenergysubsectors,andtheoverallIowaenergysectorareanalyzedaccordingtotheIndustryTargetingAnalysisgraphic(Figure12)whichdividestheseindustriesintorelativeperformancecategoriesbasedontheirperformanceonlocationquotients,growthordeclineinemployment,andgrowthordeclineinemploymentshareversusthenation.TheresultsofthistargetinganalysisareshowninTable15.
7Itshouldbenoted,thatwithinthelimitationsplacedonthisanalysisbythenatureoftheNorthAmericanIndustrialClassificationSystem(NAICS)thereisastronglikelihoodofenergy-relatedemploymentalsospreadthroughoutavarietyofadditionalNAICScodes,whicharenotprimarilyenergy-relatedinnature.Forexample,acompanymakingfoaminsulation,wouldbeincludedwithinabroaderplastics-relatedNAICScodethatincludessubstantialnon-energy-relatedemployment.
25
Figure12.IndustryTargetingAnalysisforIowaEnergySectorandSubsectors
Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofBureauofLaborStatistics,QCEWdataandenhancedfilefromIMPLAN.
B. EmploymentCompensationintheIowaEnergySector
Agoalofeconomicdevelopersisnotjusttohelppromotethecreationofjobs,butalsotoparticularlyencouragethegenerationof“highquality”jobs—jobspayingaboveaverage,family-sustainingwagelevels.BureauofLaborStatisticsdataconfirmthatIowaenergyjobsindeedarehigh-quality—payinga2014averageannualwageof$73,412in2014whichisconsiderablyhigherthanthestate’saverageprivatesectorwageof$41,964.JobsinIowa’spowergenerationandpowertransmission/distributionenergysubsectorsareparticularlyhighpaying,withanaverageof$102,264and$80,135respectively.Infact,alleightofIowa’senergysubsectorspayatorabovethestate’saverageannualwage.
Is the industry a specialization for Iowa?
From 2001 to 2014 did the industry grow in the State of Iowa?
Did Iowa industry gain competitiv e share from 2001 to 2014
Stars
Specialized,growing andgaining national share (growing at faster rate than U.S. overall)
Opportunities
Specialized, and growing but not as fast as U.S. overall
Higher Priority Retention Targets
Specialized, but prospects limited due to external trends, but out-performing U.S. overall
Lower Priority Retention Targets
Specialized, but prospects limited due to local weaknesses
EmergingStrengths
Not yet specialized, but growing and gaining share. May represent up and coming stars
Prospects limited due to weak base and external trendsNot specialized, not gaining employment, but lost jobs slower than U.S. overall
Prospects very limited
Not specialized, not growing, and actually losingJobs faster than U.S. overall
Universe of Energy Oriented Business SectorsBiodieselProduction EthanolProduction Extraction/Resource DevelopmentOtherRenewableEnergy&Storage PetroleumProducts &Wholesale PowerGenerationPowerTransmission/Distribution Refineries TotalEnergyCluster
Location Quotient > 1.20 Current Specialization
BiodieselProductionEthanolProductionOtherRenewableEnergy&StoragePowerGeneration
Location Quotient <=1.20 Not a Current Specialization
Extraction/ResourceDevelopmentPetroleumProducts&WholesalePowerTransmission/DistributionRefineriesTotalEnergyCluster
Employment Growth
BiodieselProduction
Ethanol Production
OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage
No Employment Growth orEmployment Decline
PowerGeneration
Employment Growth
Extraction/ResourceDevelopment
Refineries
Total Energy Cluster
No Employment Growth orEmployment Decline
PetroleumProducts&Wholesale
PowerTransmission/Distribution
Share Gain(Strong
Performer)
BiodieselProduction
EthanolProduction
OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage
Share Loss
(Lagging Performer)
Share Gain
(Constrained Performer)
PowerGeneration
Share Loss(Poor
Performer)
Share Gain(Strong
Performer)
Extraction/ResourceDevelopment
Refineries
TotalEnergyCluster
Share Loss
(Lagging Performer)
Share Gain(Constrained Performer)
PowerTransmission/Distribution
Share Loss (Poor
Performer)
PetroleumProducts&Wholesale
EmergingOpportunity
Not specialized, but is gaining employment albeit not as fast as U.S. overall
26
Table15:TargetingAnalysisofIowa’sEnergySector,Subsectors,andNAICS-levelIndustry
NAICSDescription IowaIndustrySpecialization IowaIndustryGrowthIowaGained
CompetitiveShare TargetStatusBiodieselProduction CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain StarsOtherOrganicChemicalManufacturing CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain Stars
EthanolProduction CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain StarsEthylAlcoholManufacturing CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain Stars
Extraction/ResourceDevelopment NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsDrillingOilandGasWells NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsSupportActivitiesforOilandGasOperations NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss EmergingOpportunitySupportActivitiesforCoalMining NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengths
OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain StarsTurbineandTurbineGeneratorSetUnitsMfg. CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain StarsStorageBatteryManufacturing CurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareGain HigherPriorityRetentionTargetsPrimaryBatteryManufacturing NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengths
PetroleumProducts&Wholesale NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsVeryLimitedPetroleumBulkStationsandTerminals NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsPetroleumandPetroleumProductsWholesalers CurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss LowerPriorityRetentionTargetsHeatingOilDealers NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsVeryLimitedLiquefiedPetroleumGas(BottledGas)Dealers NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsVeryLimited
PowerGeneration CurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareGain HigherPriorityRetentionTargetsHydroelectricPowerGeneration NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsVeryLimitedFossilFuelElectricPowerGeneration CurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareGain HigherPriorityRetentionTargetsNuclearElectricPowerGeneration NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsOtherElectricPowerGeneration CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain Stars
PowerTransmission/Distribution NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsLimitedElectricBulkPowerTransmissionandControl NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsElectricPowerDistribution CurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareGain HigherPriorityRetentionTargetsNaturalGasDistribution NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsVeryLimitedOil/GasPipelineandRelatedStructuresConst. NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsPower/CommunicationLineandRelatedStructuresConst. CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain StarsPipelineTransport.ofNaturalGas NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsPipelineTransport.ofRefinedPetroleumProducts NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsVeryLimited
Refineries NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsPetroleumRefineries NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengths
TotalEnergySector NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengths
Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofBureauofLaborStatistics,QCEWdataandenhancedfilefromIMPLAN.
27
FromaneconomicdevelopmentmarketingperspectivepaylevelsinIowaarestillconsiderablybelowthoseforthenationaleconomyoverall.Thatis,employersdonotpayasmuchinIowaforlaborasinotherU.S.locationsonaverage—Iowaenergywages,onaverage,areonly76%ofthenationallevel.Differencesinwagescanreflectthecompositionoftheindustrysectorandtheskillsetsindemand,thecostsoflivinganddoingbusiness,thevalue-addedwithinanindustrycomparedwithotherregions,andmanyotherreasons.
Table16:AverageWagesforSelectIowaandU.S.Industries,2014
IndustrySector,Subsector,orSector IowaAverageWages,2014
U.S.AverageWages,2014
IowaWageShareofU.S.Wage
PowerGeneration $102,264 $111,298 92%
PowerTransmission/Distribution $80,135 $87,232 92%
ManagementofCompanies&Enterprises $77,959 $112,868 69%
BiodieselProduction $77,954 $93,063 84%
TotalEnergySector $73,254 $96,468 76%
Finance&Insurance $68,456 $97,373 70%
Professional,Scientific,&TechnicalServices $60,472 $86,391 70%
Refineries $60,158 $132,020 46%
WholesaleTrade $58,766 $71,043 83%
Manufacturing $54,418 $62,977 86%
Construction $51,934 $55,040 94%
Extraction/ResourceDevelopment $51,191 $109,875 47%
Information $50,764 $90,804 56%
OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage $49,907 $73,100 68%
PetroleumProducts&Wholesale $45,693 $63,903 72%
RealEstate&Rental&Leasing $42,762 $51,808 83%
Transportation&Warehousing $42,047 $48,720 86%
EthanolProduction $41,964 $74,758 56%
TotalPrivateSector $41,964 $51,298 82%
HealthCare&SocialAssistance $39,605 $45,859 86%
Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing&Hunting $37,113 $30,625 121%
RetailTrade $24,673 $28,743 86%
Arts,Entertainment,&Recreation $17,540 $34,856 50%
Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofBureauofLaborStatistics,QCEWdataandenhancedfilefromIMPLAN.
Conclusion11:TheenergysectorinIowapayshigherwagesincomparisontotheprivate
sectoroverallinthestate.Itprovidesthesortofhighquality,family-sustainingjobsthat
economicdevelopersseektogrow.
C. LaborProductivityintheIowaEnergySector
Comparingtheproductivityofastatesectortoitsnationallevelprovidesinsightsintowhetherthestateindustryismoreorlesscompetitive.Higherlevelsofproductivitycomparedtothenationmeanthatforeachjobmoreeconomicoutputisgeneratedsuggestingthatalocalindustryisbetterabletomakeuse
28
ofadvancesintechnologytoproducegoodsandservicesandisabletoproducemorecomplex,highervalueproducts.
Intermsoflaborproductivityintheenergysector,measuredbyvalue-addedperworker8,Iowalagsbehindthenation.Latestdata,for2014(Table17),showsthattheenergysectorinIowaproduces$193,326invalue-addedactivityperemployee,versus$263,028forthenation.9ThusIowa’senergyproductivitylevelrunsatabout74%ofthenationallevel.However,takingintoaccountthefactthatIowaenergywagesare,onaverage,only76%ofthenationallevelitisevidentthattheIowaworkforceiseffectivelystillgoodvalueformoney.
Table17:Value-AddedperWorkerintheEnergySector2014—IowaComparedtotheU.S.
IndustrySector IowaProductivity,2014 U.S.Productivity,2014IowaProductivityShareofU.S.Productivity
EnergySector $193,326 $263,028 74%
TotalPrivateSector $88,548 $93,915 94%
Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofIMPLANInput/OutputModelforIowaandtheU.S.
Itisalsoclearfromthesehighdollarvaluesthattheenergysector,ingeneral,ishighlycapitalintensive—i.e.,itisanindustryinwhichtheinfrastructurerequiredtoproduceitsproduct(ethanolproductionequipment,powerstations,distributioninfrastructure,etc.)requirehighlevelsofinvestmentincomparisontothetotalnumberofjobsgenerated.Thisisevidencedbythefactthattheenergysectorproduces$193,326invalue-addedperworkerinIowa,versusjust$88,548perworkerintheprivatesectoronaverage.Inhighlycapitalintensiveindustries,relativewageratesforworkerscanbearelativelyminorlocationfactorand,inthisregard,thecomparativelylowerlevelsofwagespaidintheenergysectorinIowamaynotbeaparticularlystrongcomparativeadvantage.
Productivityvarieswidelyacrossthevariousenergysubsectors,withpowergenerationhavingthelargestvalue-addedperemployeeinbothIowaandtheU.S.,$508,765and$546,474,respectively—againindicatingtheextremecapitalintensityofthissubsector.ImportantforIowaisthatethanolproductionproductivity,asmeasuredbyvalue-addedperemployee,reached$309,805in2014,comparedtotheU.S.levelof$253,645.
Conclusion12:WhileoverallIowaenergywagesandproductivitylevelsarelowerthanthe
nationalaverageforthesector,therelationshipbetweenwagesandproductivityisslightly
betterthanthenationalaverageandkeysubsectorsoffersignificantcompetitiveadvantage
andopportunities.
8Value-addedrepresentsthedifferencebetweenanindustry’stotaloutputandthecostofitsintermediateinputs;ameasureofthesector’scontributiontoGSP.Asignificantcomponentofvalue-addedisworkerwages.Themeasureofvalue-addedperemployeeisoftenusedasameasureofoverallindustryproductivity.9Someindustriesdonotmapdirectly1:1fromNAICStotheIMPLANmodel-specificindustrysectorsandthereforesomeareleftoutofthisanalysisasincludingthefullIMPLANsectorwouldbeoverlyinclusive(e.g.,Energy-relatedsectorsinWholesaleandRetailarenotincludedinthiscalculation).
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IV. PreliminaryScenariosforEnergyChangeinIowa
A. InitialScenarioDevelopment
TheultimategoaloftheseIowaenergyscenariosistoestablishafuturepathforenergydevelopmentactivitiesintheState.Thisinitialsetofscenariosaredevelopedtoprovideabasic“baseline”perspectiveofrecentenergyperformance,measuredbyconsumption(demand)andproduction(supply)andhowevenasimplecontinuationofthisperformancewillalterIowa’sfutureenergylandscape,andhowchoices,strategies,andactionsdevelopedaspartoftheIowaEnergyPlancanalterIowa’senergyfuture.
Thisinitialsetofscenarioswillbeupdated,modified,andreplacedusingadditionaland“tobecollected”informationfromthestate’senergystakeholdersthroughbothinterviewsandworkinggroupperspectives,leadingtoafinalsetofscenariosthatplotpotentialenergyfuturesforIowa.Theseinitialscenariosprovideforecastsforthemajorenergyfuel-relatedgroupsofcoal,naturalgas,petroleum(oil),nuclear,andrenewable(includinghydro-electric,geothermal,biomass,solar,etc.)aswellastotalenergyconsumptionandacompositeofthecombinedfivefuel-relatedgroups.
ScenarioI:ContinuationofDecade-plusTrends
ThefirstscenarioshowspreviousIowaenergyconsumptionfrom2000through2013(shadedarea)andthenextendsthisconsumptionperformance,baseduponthecalculatedcompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)ofthisperformanceto2025(Figure13).
Figure13.IowaEnergyConsumptionForecastto2025at2000-2013CAGR.
Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationdataforIowa.Note:CAGR=CompoundAnnualGrowthRate.
0
500,000
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EnergyCo
nsum
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Btu)
IowaEnergyConsumption:SelectSources,2000-'25
Coal NaturalGas Petroleum
Nuclear(Electricity) RenewableEnergy CombinedFiveGroupConsumption
TotalEnergyConsumption
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Thisscenariodepictsacontinuationoftheextremegrowthinrenewableenergyconsumptionwithinthestateoverthe2000-2013period,andwhatconsumptionvaluesforthisenergysourcewouldlooklikeintheunlikelycasethatallfiveenergygroupscontinuedontheirhistoricalpath.Inthisscenariorenewableenergyconsumption’ssubstantialgrowth(CAGR=12.8%)alongwithrelativelyflatgrowthorslightdeclinesintheremainingfuelgroupsshowthecombinedgrowthwouldfarsurpassoverallprojectedtotalenergyconsumptiongrowth.
ScenarioII:ContinuationofMoreRecentTrends
Thesecondscenario(Figure14)showsasimilarforecastapproach,butonlyusesthetruncatedrecentperiod,2010-2013,toestablishthehistoricalCAGRratefortheforecast.Thismorerecentgrowthrateeliminatessomeoftheextremelyhighgrowthperiodsintheearly2000’sastherenewableenergysectorbegandevelopinginIowa.
Figure14.IowaEnergyConsumptionForecastto2025at2010-1013CAGR.
Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationdataforIowa.
EvenwiththeCAGRfocusedonthemostrecentperiod,therenewableenergysectorcontinuesasignificantCAGRof4.3%peryear.Thislessenedgrowthrateinrenewableenergyiscombinedwithanowmorepronounceddeclineincoalconsumption(CAGRfrom2000-2013=-0.8%;CAGRfrom2010-2013=-6.6%),tobringthecombinedfivegroupconsumptionforecastmuchclosertototalenergyconsumptionforecast,yetitstillexceedsitby200,000BillionBtu.
0
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EnergyCo
nsum
ption(Billion
Btu)
IowaEnergyConsumption:SelectSources,2000-'25
Coal NaturalGas Petroleum
Nuclear(Electricity) RenewableEnergy CombinedFiveGroupConsumption
TotalEnergyConsumption
31
ScenarioIII:NationalEIAForecasts
Thethirdinitialscenario(Figure15)replacesIowaconsumptionforecastCAGRs,builtuponIowahistoricalconsumptiondata,withaforecastbuiltuponanexistingU.S.EIAforecastfortheWestNorthCentralregionthatisacomponentoftheirAnnualEnergyOutlook(AEO).10IntheirAEO,theU.S.EIAforecastsenergyconsumptioninamostlysimilarcontexttotheyear2040.11Forthepurposesofthisscenario,aCAGRwascalculatedfromtheAEOWestNorthCentralforecastfortheyears2013-2025tocoincidewiththepreviousscenarios.
Inthisscenario,totalenergyconsumptionisforecasttogrowataCAGRoflessthan1.0%similartoScenarioII.WithScenarioIII’sforecastbuiltuponthestructuredforecastoftheAEOthedevelopedCAGRleadtoacombinationofthefiveenergygroupsequalingthetotalenergyconsumptionforecast.12
Figure15.IowaEnergyConsumptionForecastto2025atU.S.EIAAEOForecast2013-2025CAGR.
Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationdataforIowaandAnnualEnergyOutlookdatafortheWestNorthCentralRegion(whichincludesIowa).
ScenarioIV:ProductionForecast
Thefourthscenario(Figure16)depictsIowahistoricalproductionfrom2000-2013inthethreeareasinwhichIowacurrentlyproducesenergy—nuclearenergyproduction,otherrenewableenergy(electricity)
10TheWestNorthCentralRegionisdefinedasIowa,Missouri,Missouri,Kansas,Nebraska,SouthDakota,NorthDakota,andMinnesota.11SomeslightdefinitionaldifferencesexistbetweentheAEOcategoriesandU.S.EIASEDSdatausedforthebaseIowaconsumptiondatafrom2000-2013.Atthebroadenergygroupsusedinthesebasicscenariosthedifferencesarenegligible.12Forpurposesofthesebaseline,illustrativescenarios,theforecastyearsdonottakeintoaccountnetenergylossandimport/exportconsiderations.
0
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ption(Billion
Btu)
IowaEnergyConsumption:SelectSources,2000-'25
Coal NaturalGas Petroleum Nuclear(Electricity) RenewableEnergy TotalEnergyConsumption
32
production,andethanolproduction.Threeforecastsaredevelopedforeachsource—aCAGRbaseduponIowa’shistorical2000-2013production(IACAGR’00-’13),aCAGRbaseduponIowa’shistorical2010-2013production(IACAGR’10-’13),andaCAGRbaseduponoverallU.S.2010-2013production(U.S.CAGR’10-’13).
Figure16.IowaEnergyProductionForecastto2025,VariousProjectedGrowthRates.
Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationdataforIowaandtheU.S.
WhatismostsurprisingwhenexaminingScenarioIVisthatwiththeexceptionoftheethanolproductionforecastbaseduponthe2000-2013CAGR,thefutureproductionforecastsareverysimilar,withtheU.S.-basedforecastforotherrenewableenergyslightlylower.
B. ScenarioDevelopmentNextSteps
Asdescribed,thesescenarioscapturetheIowaenergy-consumptiondatacontainedwithinthiswhitepaperanddevelopssimple,baselinescenariostobeginthediscussionofIowa’senergyfuture.Additionalscenarioswillbedevelopedandsharedwithstakeholdersandworkinggroupsasadditional
0
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EnergyProd
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Btu)
IowaEnergyProduction:SelectSources,2000-'25
NuclearEnergyProduction(IACAGR'00-'13) OtherRenewableEnergy(IACAGR'00-'13)(Electricity)Production
EthanolProduction(IACAGR'00-'13)
NuclearEnergyProduction(IACAGR'10-'13) OtherRenewableEnergy(IACAGR'10-'13)(Electricity)Production
EthanolProduction(IACAGR'10-'13)
NuclearEnergyProduction(USCAGR'10-'13) OtherRenewableEnergy(USCAGR'10-'13)(Electricity)Production
EthanolProduction(USCAGR'10-'13)
33
dataisgathered,theprojectprogressesandinformationpertainingtopotentialviablescenariosisreceived.
Ataminimumthenextwaveofscenarioswillbegintoexplorekeyvariables,opportunities,andpolicyinitiativesandwillinclude,amongothers:
• UnderstandingexistingplannedcapacityandgenerationchangeswithinIowaonbothproductionandconsumption.
• RoleoftheCleanPowerPlananditspotentialimpactsonbothgenerationcapacityandenergyavailability.
• RenewablePortfolioStandard-influencedportfoliochanges.
• Continuedmanufacturingexpansiononconsumptionmix.
• Reconcilingdifferencesanddistinctionsbetweenconsumptionanddemandforecasts.
ThoughtsonhowthesefactorswillweighonandimpactthescenariosforIowa’senergyfuturewillbebroughttolightthroughtheon-goingeffortsofthisproject.
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APPENDIXA:PerformanceComparisonbyEnergyCategory–IowaandSurroundingBenchmarkStates
DataforthefollowingtablesandfiguresinChapterIIarefromtheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrations,StateEnergyDataSystems(SEDS)database,2000-2013(mostcurrentlyavailable).
CoalDemandProfile
TableA1.CoalConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState
Consumption(BillionBtu)
ConsumptionPercentChange,
2000-2013
Expenditures($Millions)
Price($perMillionBtu)
State Metric StateRank Metric State
Rank Metric StateRank Metric State
RankIowa 402,402 17 -9.8% 14 $736.5 22 $1.83 46
Illinois 1,026,925 5 1.0% 7 $2,128.4 6 $2.07 38
Minnesota 267,695 27 -28.4% 27 $566.5 30 $2.12 33
Missouri 806,549 7 17.1% 3 $1,553.0 12 $1.93 43
Nebraska 292,956 25 41.6% 1 $423.1 31 $1.44 49
SouthDakota 34,246 40 -32.3% 29 $71.2 42 $2.08 35
Wisconsin 454,554 15 -8.9% 13 $1,108.9 14 $2.44 28
U.S.Totals 18,038,771 -20.1% $45,516.6 $2.52
NaturalGasDemandProfile
TableA2.NaturalGasConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState
Consumption(BillionBtu)
ConsumptionPercentChange,
2000-2013
Expenditures($Millions)
Price($perMillionBtu)
State Metric StateRank Metric State
Rank Metric StateRank Metric State
RankIowa 306,460 25 50.9% 12 $2,045.7 23 $6.32 33
Illinois 1,063,690 7 2.3% 35 $7,260.8 5 $7.20 18
Minnesota 478,810 16 30.3% 24 $2,426.4 20 $6.26 35
Missouri 281,486 30 -2.3% 41 $1,811.0 28 $8.80 8
Nebraska 179,610 38 41.1% 20 $994.6 36 $5.78 43
SouthDakota 84,527 44 121.8% 2 $462.0 46 $6.04 40
Wisconsin 450,169 18 13.2% 30 $2,997.3 17 $6.72 26
U.S.Totals 26,801,763 12.5% $151,704.5 $6.44
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PetroleumDemandProfile
TableA3.PetroleumConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState
Consumption(BillionBtu)
ConsumptionPercentChange,
2000-2013
Expenditures($Millions)
Price($perMillionBtu)
State Metric StateRank Metric State
Rank Metric StateRank Metric State
RankIowa 427,080 29 5.5% 10 $11,314.3 28 $26.49 37
Illinois 1,234,444 6 -4.1% 20 $30,305.9 6 $27.05 26
Minnesota 608,922 18 -10.2% 32 $15,509.3 19 $27.30 23
Missouri 632,148 17 -6.8% 25 $16,735.4 17 $26.47 39
Nebraska 238,966 37 6.3% 8 $6,601.2 35 $27.62 17
SouthDakota 117,362 47 -0.6% 15 $3,167.8 47 $26.99 28
Wisconsin 525,625 23 -13.0% 38 $14,433.9 21 $27.68 15
U.S.Totals 35,820,042 -6.7% $878,115.6 $26.11
MotorGasolineDemandProfile
TableA4.GasolineConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState
Consumption(BillionBtu)
ConsumptionPercentChange,
2000-2013
Expenditures($Millions)
Price($perMillionBtu)
State Metric StateRank Metric State
Rank Metric StateRank Metric State
RankIowa 198,722 28 3.7% 19 $5,580.8 28 $28.08 33
Illinois 559,961 8 -10.5% 48 $16,001.8 7 $28.58 29
Minnesota 304,634 22 -4.4% 39 $8,798.4 20 $28.88 25
Missouri 368,645 14 -4.3% 38 $10,047.2 15 $27.25 47
Nebraska 103,043 37 -3.4% 37 $2,973.3 37 $28.85 26
SouthDakota 53,510 45 -0.4% 29 $1,555.0 45 $29.06 22
Wisconsin 295,970 23 -2.5% 33 $8,731.2 21 $29.50 14
U.S.Totals 16,338,562 1.1% $467,337.6 $28.60
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FuelOilDemandProfile
TableA5.FuelOilConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState
Consumption(BillionBtu)
ConsumptionPercentChange,
2000-2013
Expenditures($Millions)
Price($perMillionBtu)
State Metric StateRank Metric State
Rank Metric StateRank Metric State
RankIowa 138,913 24 23.9% 10 $3,759.6 25 $27.06 40
Illinois 267,542 7 7.1% 20 $7,400.9 7 $27.67 19
Minnesota 157,153 20 8.7% 18 $4,368.3 20 $27.80 15
Missouri 172,049 14 2.6% 24 $4,660.4 14 $27.09 39
Nebraska 110,112 32 26.7% 7 $3,001.0 32 $27.25 35
SouthDakota 45,907 45 30.7% 5 $1,238.4 45 $26.98 41
Wisconsin 139,116 23 -18.4% 42 $3,893.2 23 $27.99 8
U.S.Totals 8,066,422 1.8% $221,442.4 $27.46
PropaneDemandProfile
TableA6.LPG(Propane)Consumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState
Consumption(BillionBtu)
ConsumptionPercentChange,
2000-2013
Expenditures($Millions)
Price($perMillionBtu)
State Metric StateRank Metric State
Rank Metric StateRank Metric State
RankIowa 63,297 5 -11.2% 29 $1,398.4 7 $22.09 47
Illinois 84,791 3 15.8% 16 $1,899.3 3 $22.47 44
Minnesota 36,575 9 -0.4% 24 $853.4 11 $23.40 37
Missouri 30,742 13 -23.9% 38 $706.4 15 $22.98 41
Nebraska 12,338 27 -12.9% 31 $288.9 29 $23.42 36
SouthDakota 7,523 40 -23.1% 36 $175.4 41 $23.32 38
Wisconsin 36,388 10 -12.7% 30 $814.6 12 $22.39 45
U.S.Totals 3,166,737 7.5% $55,690.0 $17.61
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NuclearEnergyDemandProfile
TableA7.NuclearEnergyConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState
Consumption(BillionBtu)
ConsumptionPercentChange,
2000-2013
Expenditures($Millions)
Price($perMillionBtu)
State Metric StateRank Metric State
Rank Metric StateRank Metric State
RankIowa 55,597 29 19.7% 5 $46.5 29 $0.84 7
Illinois 1014,926 1 8.8% 8 $820.8 1 $0.81 14
Minnesota 111,885 24 -17.2% 26 $108.5 21 $0.97 2
Missouri 87,428 26 -16.1% 25 $78.7 24 $0.90 5
Nebraska 71,736 28 -20.3% 28 $60.0 27 $0.84 7
SouthDakota 0 32 N/A $0.0 32 $0.00 32
Wisconsin 121,994 21 1.6% 21 $93.5 22 $0.77 19
U.S.Totals 8,244,433 4.9% $6,522.6 $0.79
Note:19statesandtheDistrictofColumbiahavenodirectproduction/consumptionofnuclearpower.Theseregionsareallrankedat32.ConsumptionmetricsbasedonNuclearenergyconsumedforelectricitygeneration,total
BiomassDemandProfile
TableA8.BiomassConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState
Consumption(BillionBtu)
ConsumptionChange,
2000-2013
Expenditures*($Millions)
Price*($perMillionBtu)
State Metric StateRank Metric State
Rank Metric StateRank Metric State
RankIowa 227,581 4 244.1% 8 $35.7 37 $6.08 17
Illinois 136,667 11 43.0% 32 $92.5 29 $6.04 18
Minnesota 148,410 9 70.1% 21 $170.7 18 $3.51 35
Missouri 71,291 25 319.7% 6 $135.6 23 $11.36 10
Nebraska 107,101 21 281.9% 7 $15.2 43 $7.53 12
SouthDakota 61,432 28 1209.0% 1 $8.7 49 $11.67 9
Wisconsin 133,836 12 40.7% 33 $227.9 16 $4.18 31
U.S.Totals 4,464,695 48.4% $7,834.0 $3.79
Note:*Thesebiomassfiguresrepresentthe“values”ofallbiomassincludingtheconsumptionofbiomassthatisultimatelyconvertedtootherenergyproductsincludingethanol.
38
Forthefollowing,renewableenergy-specifictablesexpenditureandpriceinformationisunavailablefromtheSEDSasthesesourcesdonothave“fuel-related”expendituresandallfeedintotheoverallelectricitypool(grid)fromapriceconsideration,atthislevelofdataavailability.Furthereffortstoexamine“greenpowerpricing”andotherRPS-relatedimpactsison-going.
RenewableEnergyDemandProfile
TableA9.TotalRenewableEnergyConsumptionbyBenchmarkState
Consumption(BillionBtu)
ConsumptionPercentChange,
2000-2013
State Metric StateRank Metric State
RankIowa 384,690 6 376.5% 3
Illinois 234,642 10 140.2% 15
Minnesota 233,732 11 123.3% 16
Missouri 94,515 33 305.7% 5
Nebraska 136,286 25 212.0% 12
SouthDakota 127,714 27 101.3% 18
Wisconsin 168,986 17 46.0% 31
U.S.Totals 9,147,633 49.8%
WindEnergyDemandProfile
TableA10.Wind(RenewableEnergy)ConsumptionbyBenchmarkState
Consumption(BillionBtu)
ConsumptionChange,
2000-2013
State Metric StateRank Metric State
RankIowa 148,538 2 143,501 2
Illinois 91,834 5 91,834 4
Minnesota 78,797 7 71,406 7
Missouri 11,133 24 11,133 24
Nebraska 17,191 20 17,191 20
SouthDakota 25,643 17 25,643 17
Wisconsin 14,864 22 14,836 22
U.S.Totals 1,601,359 1,544,302
• Iowawasoneofonly11statesregisteringanywindenergyconsumptionin2000.In2013,39statesregisteredwindenergyconsumption.
• Iowaaccountsfor9.3%ofU.S.windconsumptionin2013andaccountsfor9.3%oftheincreaseinU.S.consumptionfrom2000to2013.
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EthanolDemandProfile
A11.Ethanol(RenewableEnergy)ConsumptionbyBenchmarkState
Consumption(BillionBtu)
ConsumptionChange,
2000-2013
State Metric StateRank Metric State
RankIowa 12,926 28 5,236 37
Illinois 39,470 7 15,514 23
Minnesota 25,491 15 6,105 34
Missouri 21,436 19 19,021 18
Nebraska 5,586 40 2,837 46
SouthDakota 3,731 43 1,806 49
Wisconsin 20,706 21 17,998 20
U.S.Totals 1,091,826 955,293
• Iowawasoneof34stateswithethanolconsumptionin2000.By2013,all50statesandtheDistrictofColumbiahadsomelevelofethanolconsumption.
• Iowaaccountsforonly1.2%ofU.S.ethanolconsumptionin2013and0.5%ofthechangeintotalethanolconsumptionfrom2000to2013.
• OverallU.S.ethanolconsumptionincreasedby700%from2000to2013.