White Paper: Preliminary Assessment of Iowa’s Energy … Assessment of Iowa's... · White Paper:...

WhitePaper:PreliminaryAssessmentofIowa’s

EnergyPosition

PreparedfortheIowaEnergyPlan,IEDA,andIowaDOT

PreparedbyTEConomyPartners,LLC

February22,2016

PreliminaryAssessmentofIowa’sEnergyPosition

TableofContentsI.Introduction.............................................................................................................................................1

A.EnergyasanEconomicEngine....................................................................................................................1

B.DefiningtheEnergySector..........................................................................................................................4

C.StructureofthisReport...............................................................................................................................5

D.IowainaNationalSocio-EconomicContext...............................................................................................7

II.EnergySupplyandDemandinIowa.........................................................................................................8

A.Iowa’sEnergyProfile–Production.............................................................................................................8

B.Iowa’sEnergyProfile–Consumption........................................................................................................10

C.Iowa’sElectricityProfile............................................................................................................................16

D.Iowa’sEnergyprofileinComparisontoSurroundingStates.....................................................................18

III.EnergyasaKeyEmployerinIowa.........................................................................................................20

A.Iowa’sEmploymentGrowth,SizeandSpecializationinEnergySub-sectors............................................20

B.EmploymentCompensationintheIowaEnergySector............................................................................25

C.LaborProductivityintheIowaEnergySector...........................................................................................27

D.Iowa’sEnergyprofileinComparisontoSurroundingStates.....................................................................18

III.PreliminaryScenariosforEnergyChangeinIowa..................................................................................29

A.InitialScenarioDevelopment....................................................................................................................29

Scenario1:ContinuationofDecade-plusTrends......................................................................................29

Scenario1:ContinuationofMoreRecentTrends.....................................................................................30

Scenario3:NationalEIAForecasts............................................................................................................31

Scenario4:ProductionForecast...............................................................................................................31

B.ScenarioDevelopmentNextSteps............................................................................................................32

AppendixA:PerformanceComparisonbyEnergyCategory:IowaandSurroundingBenchmarkStates........34

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I. IntroductionThisreport,producedbyTEConomyPartners,LLCaddressesacomponentoftheTask1deliverableoftheIowaEnergyPlan–definedasprovidingan“assessmentofcurrentandfutureenergysupplyanddemandinIowa.”Thereport,goesfurther,however,toexaminethestructureoftheenergyindustryinIowaanditsroleinemploymentandjobgrowthwithinthestate.

ThereportpresentedhereinrepresentsjustoneearlycomponentofalargerscalecomprehensiveIowaEnergyPlan,andwillbefollowedupbyTEConomyPartners’nextphaseofworkinevaluatingstrengths,weaknesses,opportunitiesandthreats(SWOTanalysis)forIowainenergy,andanassessmentofenergyresearchanddevelopment(R&D)andinnovationcorecompetenciesinthestate.

LedbytheIowaEconomicDevelopmentAuthorityandtheIowaDepartmentofTransportation,andcomprisingaworkingcommitteeofstakeholdersandcitizensfromacrossIowa,supportfortheprojectisprovidedbyaconsultingteamcomprisingInovaEnergyGroup,LLC(Inova)astheleadconsultant,togetherwithspecializedprojectsupportfromElevateEnergy(Elevate)andTEConomyPartners,LLC(TEConomy).

A. EnergyasanEconomicEngineTheStateofIowahasidentified“energy”asanareaofstrategicimportancetothestateeconomyandforeconomicdevelopment.AsshowninFigure1,globalandU.S.demandforenergyandfuels,inalltheirforms,isunlikelytoabate.Globaldemandprojectionsindicatethatmoreenergy,inallitsforms,willbeneededtomeetworldwidedemandprojections.Figure1:GlobalEnergyDemand,RecentTrendsandPredictionsbySource1

1Source:U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA)InternationalEnergyStatisticsdatabase(asofNovember2012).MorerecentdatadoesexistyetastheEIAischangingitsdatareleaseprocess.Thenextislikelytobepublishedinthesecondquarteror2016.

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Domestically,U.S.economicgrowthprojections,incombinationwithotheractorssuchasenergy-efficiencymeasuresandchangingproductionprofiles,leadtoamuchflatterprojectionforgrowth.IntheU.S.naturalgasandrenewablesareprojectedtoseeariseinenergydemandwhilemostothersourcesareflat.Between2016and2040,theU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationprojectsoverallU.S.demandtoincrease7.1%.Figure2:U.S.EnergyDemand,RecentTrendsandPredictionsbySource

Bothdevelopedanddevelopingnationeconomiesdependonenergytopowereconomicandsocietalactivity.Becausethedemandforenergyisassuredmovingintothefuture,energymaybeseenasprovidingarelativelysecureassetforthosenations,regionsandstateshavingrobustenergyresourcesortheinfrastructureandknow-howneededtodrivethefurtherdevelopmentofenergytechnologiesandsolutionstomeetglobalanddomesticneeds.

Energyis,however,ahighlydynamicsectorthatisinfluencedbybothglobalandlocaleconomictrends,andalsobystrategicconcernsoverdependenceonforeignfuelimports,environmentalconcernsoveremissions,andthepolicydecisionsofgovernments.Inaddition,energyextraction,conversionandgeneration,distributionanduserepresentanintegratedvalue-chainwithsubstantialopportunitiesforadvancedtechnologydeploymentandinnovation.Opportunitiesfortechnology-basedeconomicdevelopmentexistforthosestatesabletoattractandgrowR&Dactivityandinnovationcommercializationinenergyandenergy-relatedtechnologies.

Thereare,therefore,multiplepathwaysthatastatemayfollowinpursuingenergy-basedeconomicdevelopment:

• Astatemayexploititsnaturalfuelassets(suchasoil,gasorbiomass)togeneratecost-effectivepowertogiveindustryandcommerceacompetitiveadvantage.

• Astatemayexportunrefinedfuelsorenergyoritmayfurtherconvertfuelsintohighervalue-addedliquidfuels,chemicalsormaterialsforexport.

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

History1980

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Petroleumandotherliquids

Coal

NaturalGas

Renewables

Liquidbiofuels

Nuclear

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• AstatemaybuildarobustR&Dsectorfocusedonacademicandcommercialresearchinenergyandassociatedtechnologies,attracting-inexternalresearchfunds.

• Astatemaybuildasignificantmanufacturingsectorproducingtechnologiesforresourcediscovery,resourceextraction,energygeneration,energytransmission,andenergyconservation.Itmayleverageitsresearchassetstodevelopnewenergyproducts,technologiesandservicesforsaleinthedomesticandinternationalmarketplace.

• Astatemayseektoundertakeenergyconservationandefficiencymeasuresinordertoincreaseenergyresourceavailabilityforexport,reduceenergyimports,lessenenvironmentalimpactsofenergyconsumption,andgeneratejobsinprovidingenergyefficiencyservicesandproducts.

Iowa,inseekingtodevelopastatewideenergystrategy,isinterestedinexaminingalloftheabove.TheStateseekstohaveadetailedprofiledevelopedofenergy’sroleintheIowaeconomy,toidentifytrendslikelytoeffecttheimpactofenergyontheIowaeconomy,tounderstandthekeyassetsofthestateintermsoftheenergyvaluechain,andpotentialopportunitiestogeneratetechnology-basedeconomicdevelopmentthroughR&Dandcommercializationofenergyinnovations.TheStateisalsoseekingtoidentifyopportunitiestoconserveenergyandreduceanynegativeexternalitiesassociatedwithenergydevelopment,generationoruse.

TheStateofIowarecognizesthattheenergysectorisahighlyimportantsectorandresourceforthestate,andseekstoenhancethesectorfurthertogrowtheIowaeconomy.ThereisanenergysectormomentuminIowauponwhichtobuild–withtherenewableenergystory,inparticular,beingastand-outperformer.ThegrowthofthebiofuelsindustryinIowa,togetherwithsubstantialgrowthinwindenergy(intermsofbothenergygenerationandtechnology/systemsmanufacturing),areverymuchindicativeoftheabilityoftheenergysectortogeneratenewbusinesses,wealth,jobsandgovernmentrevenuesintheState.Iowanowseekstofurtherrefineitsapproachtoenergy-basedeconomicdevelopmentandenergy-sectorefficienciesthroughthedevelopmentofaformalstatewideenergystrategy.TheStaterecognizesthatachievingthefull-realizationofenergyeconomicdevelopmentpromiseintheStatewillrequireaprioritizationofstrategicactivitiesandinvestments,backedbyarobustunderstandingofenergyassets,opportunitiesandchallengesintheState,thusservingtoguideStateactions.ToadvanceeffectivepublicandprivateactionsinIowafocusedonenergy,itiscriticalfortheStateandkeystakeholderstohavereliableinformation,identifyingtheneartermgrowthopportunitiesinenergydevelopmentforIowa,togetherwithadetailedandobjectiveunderstandingofitsassetsandgaps.Basedonthisobjectiveanalysisastrategicactionplancanthenbedevelopedtopromotethegrowthanddevelopmentofspecificenergy-basedplatformsmostlikelytogenerateeconomicgrowthfortheState.

TEConomyPartners,LLCisresponsibleformajorelementsoftheIowaEnergyPlanworkpertainingtodevelopmentofaquantitativeunderstandingofIowa’scurrentpositioninenergy,producingprojectionsforenergysectordevelopmentunderpotentialdevelopmentscenarios,anddevelopingaSWOT(strengths,weaknesses,opportunities,andthreats)assessmentfocusedonenergyresourcesandinfrastructure,thecurrentenergyindustryinIowa,theenergysectorworkforce,andR&Dandinnovationwithintheenergysectorandassociatedfields.

ThisreportrepresentsanintroductorywhitepaperfocusedondefiningtheenergysectorinIowaandsummarizingkeyquantitativedataregardingthecurrentstatusofenergysupply,demand,andthekeycomponentsoftheenergyvalue-chainwithintheState.

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B. DefiningtheEnergySector

Inperformingthisanalysis,TEConomyPartnershasdeployedadefinitionoftheenergysectorwhichisquitebroad,encompassingawiderangeofenergyandenergy-relatedsubsectorsacrosstheenergyvaluechain.Figure2showsthegeneralstructureofthisvaluechaindividedintothreeprincipalpaths:

• Theenergyproductionanddistributionvaluechain• Thedevelopmentandproductionofenergytechnologiesandassociatedservices• Thesupportingassetsandinfrastructurethatinfluencetheeffectivenessofastateforenergy

sectoractivitiesanddevelopment(energybusinesslocationfactors).

Figure2:TheEnergyValue-Chain,AssociatedTechnologyAreasandKeyLocationFactorsImpactingValue-ChainDevelopment

Developmentofacomprehensiveenergystrategyrequiresconsiderationbegiventotheevaluationofconditions,assets,businesstrends,etc.associatedwiththekeyelementsdepictedonFigure2.ClearlytheenergysectorisnotgeographicallyuniformacrosstheUnitedStates,andsomestateswillhavesignificantassetsinsomeareasbutnotinothers.Iowa,forexample,hasrelativelylimitedin-statefossilfuelresources,butdoeshavesubstantialnaturalresourcesavailableforenergygenerationintermsofwindandbiomass.Similarly,theR&Dbaseandindustrybaseandtheirassociatedcorecompetenciesvariesgeographically,andanalysisisthusrequiredtodetermineassetswithinIowa.Theoverallstrategy

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tobedevelopedbyInovaEnergyGroup,theirsubcontractorElevateEnergy,andTEConomyPartnerswilladdresskeyelementspertainingtotheenergyvaluechainandenergyindustryandinnovationecosystemwithinIowa.

Assessinganyeconomicsector,includingtheenergysector,firstrequiresthatitbedefined.TEConomyPartnershasdevelopedanindustrydefinitionoftheenergysectorwhichcomprisesindividualdetailed,6-digitNorthAmericanIndustrialClassificationSystem(NAICS)industrysectorswiththesethenaggregatedintorelatedgroups(called“energysubsectors”).Table1liststheNAICSincludedintheanalysisoftheenergyindustry.

C. StructureofThisReport

Thiswhitepaperisstructuredasfollows:

• FirstIowa’seconomyandbasicdemographicsarepresentedtoprovidethereaderwithcontextregardingthesizeoftheeconomy,statepopulationandothercharacteristics.

• Second,TEConomyPartnerspresentsanassessmentoftheenergysector’seconomicdevelopmentprofileintheStateintermsofemploymentacrosstheindustryasdefinedinTable1andoutlineswhichsectorsaregrowingordeclininginimportanceasdefinedbyemploymentvolume.

• Third,anassessmentisprovidedofemploymentcompensationintheenergysectorversusothersectorsoftheIowaeconomy.

• Fourth,dataispresentedonenergysupplyinIowaandthetypesofenergygenerated.DataarealsoprovidedforthestatesadjoiningIowato,again,helpplacedataincontext.

• Fifth,dataisprovidedprofilingtheconsumptionofenergybyenergytypeintheState.DataarealsoprovidedforthestatesadjoiningIowa.

• Sixth,somepreliminaryscenariosarepresentedregardingthefutureenergyprofileinthestateextrapolatingfromrecenttrends.Itshouldbenotedthatonlyrelativelysimplisticscenariosareshowninthiswhitepaper,andmoredetailedandsophisticatedscenarioprojectionswillbemadeasmoreresearchiscompletedoverthecourseofthefullenergyproject.

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Table1:IndustryNAICSCodesIncludedinDefinitionofEnergySectorinIowaandSubsectorstowhichtheseNAICSareAssigned

NAICSCode IndustryTitle EnergySubsectorSubsector

325190 OtherOrganicChemicals BiodieselProduction

325193 EthylAlcoholManufacturing EthanolProduction

211111 CrudePetroleumandNaturalGasExtraction Extraction/ResourceDevelopment

211112 NaturalGasLiquidExtraction Extraction/ResourceDevelopment

212111 BituminousCoalandLigniteSurfaceMining Extraction/ResourceDevelopment

213111 DrillingOilandGasWells Extraction/ResourceDevelopment

213112 SupportActivitiesforOilandGasOperations Extraction/ResourceDevelopment

213113 SupportActivitiesforCoalMining Extraction/ResourceDevelopment

424710 PetroleumBulkStationsandTerminals PetroleumProducts&Wholesale

424720 PetroleumandPetroleumProductsMerchantWholesalers(exceptBulkStationsandTerminals) PetroleumProducts&Wholesale

454311 HeatingOilDealers PetroleumProducts&Wholesale

454312 LiquefiedPetroleumGas(BottledGas)Dealers PetroleumProducts&Wholesale

454319 OtherFuelDealers PetroleumProducts&Wholesale

333611 TurbineandTurbineGeneratorSetUnitsManufacturing OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage

335911 StorageBatteryManufacturing OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage

335912 PrimaryBatteryManufacturing OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage

221111 HydroelectricPowerGeneration PowerGeneration

221112 FossilFuelElectricPowerGeneration PowerGeneration

221113 NuclearElectricPowerGeneration PowerGeneration

221119 OtherElectricPowerGeneration PowerGeneration

221121 ElectricBulkPowerTransmissionandControl PowerTransmission/Distribution

221122 ElectricPowerDistribution PowerTransmission/Distribution

221210 NaturalGasDistribution PowerTransmission/Distribution

221330 SteamandAirConditioningSupply PowerTransmission/Distribution

237120 OilandGasPipelineandRelatedStructuresConstruction PowerTransmission/Distribution

237130 Power/CommunicationLineandRelatedStructuresConstruction PowerTransmission/Distribution

335311 Power,Distribution,andSpecialtyTransformerManufacturing PowerTransmission/Distribution

486110 PipelineTransportationofCrudeOil PowerTransmission/Distribution

486210 PipelineTransportationofNaturalGas PowerTransmission/Distribution

486910 PipelineTransportationofRefinedPetroleumProducts PowerTransmission/Distribution

486990 AllOtherPipelineTransportation PowerTransmission/Distribution

324110 PetroleumRefineries Refineries

Note:TheOtherRenewableEnergyandStoragesubsectoronlyincludesNAICSsectorswhereadominantproportionofthesectorisinvolvedinenergy-relatedactivities.Forexample,NAICS:334413-Semiconductorandrelateddevicemanufacturingincludessolarphotovoltaiccells,butthevastmajorityofemploymentandoutputinthissectorisrelatedtocomputer-relatedcomponents,notrenewableenergytechnology.

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D. IowainaNationalSocio-EconomicContext

ThefollowingstatisticsservetohighlightthesizeandstructureoftheIowaeconomy.

Table2:ContextualStatistics

DataVariable IowaStatistics

Context

Landarea 55,857squaremiles

Iowacomprises1.58%oftheU.S.totalareaof3,531,905squaremiles

PopulationEstimate,July1,2015, 3,123,899 Iowacomprises0.97%ofthetotalU.S.populationwhichis321,418,820

Population,percentchange-April1,2010toJuly1,2015

2.5%growth U.S.saw4.1%growth.(Iowa’spopulationhasgrownatonly61%ofthenationalrate)

LaborForceParticipationRate(Incivilianlaborforce,total,percentofpopulationage16years+,2010-2015)

70.0% U.S.rateis63.6%(Iowahasahigherlaborforceparticipationratethanthenation)

Medianhouseholdincome(in2014dollars) $52,716 U.S.medianhouseholdincomeis$53,482.SoIowa’sisjustslightlylowerthanthenationalfigure.

Totalemployerestablishments,2013 80,581 U.S.has7,488,353employerestablishments.Iowahas1.08%ofthenationalnumber,aboutinlinewithIowa’spercentofU.S.population.

Unemploymentrate(December2015) 3.4% U.S.ratewas5.0%Iowaisperformingbetteronunemploymentthatthenation,witharate32%lowerthanthenation.

TotalPrivateSectorEmployment 1,314,600jobs

Iowaaccountsfor1.1%oftheU.S.totalprivatesectoremploymentin2015.

TotalManufacturingEmployment 216,100jobs Iowaaccountsfor1.8%oftheU.S.totalmanufacturingemploymentin2015.

TotalGrossStateOutput

$169.7billion Iowaaccountsfor1.0%ofU.S.GDPin2014.

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II. EnergySupplyandDemandinIowa

Anenergystrategyneedsastartingpoint,abaselinemeasureoftheenergysectorinIowaagainstwhichexpectationsforgrowthcanbesetandmetricsformeasuringdevelopmentprogresscalibrated.TEConomyPartnersaccessedabroadrangeofinformationanddataresourcesinordertodevelopadata-drivenassessmentofIowa’scurrentenergyprofile.2A. Iowa’sEnergyProfile-Production

Iowaisanetimporterofenergy,consumingmorethandoubletheamountofenergythanitproduces(seeTable3).Basedonthisenergybalance,Iowaiseffectivelyimportingmorerawenergythanitproduces.Table3:IowaTotalEnergyConsumptionandProduction,2013

TotalEnergyIowaConsumption IowaProduction Difference(Importation)

1,516.5trillionBtu 730.5trillionBtu 786trillionBtu

Source:DatafromU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration

WhileclearlyIowaisnotyetoneofthem,thereareseveralU.S.statesthathavetotalproductionthatexceedstotalconsumption(netenergyexportingstates),including:Alaska;Colorado;Kentucky;Louisiana;Montana;NewMexico;NorthDakota;Oklahoma;Texas;Utah;WestVirginia,andWyoming.Eachoftheseexportingstatesbenefitsfromsignificantreservesoffossilfuels,somethingIowalacks.Fromaneconomicdevelopmentstandpoint,itmaybeconcludedthat:

Conclusion1:Iowacurrentlyconsumesmorerawenergythanitproduces,andalsoimportsmorerawenergythanitproduces.Thus,fromabasiceconomicpolicystandpoint,increasingenergyproductioninIowawillenhanceIowa’sbalanceoftradeandbenefittheIowaeconomy.Similarly,investmentsinenergyefficiencywillhavebenefitsintermsofloweringtheleakageoffundsoutsideofthestatethatpayforimportedenergy.

Intermsofenergyproduction,IowahasasignificantlylessdiversifiedproductionprofilethantheU.S.overall.AsshownonFigure3,Iowa’sproductionofenergy(definedasenergyproducedfromdomesticIowaassets–i.e.notimportedcoal,naturalgas,fueloil,etc.)comprisedthreeprimaryproductionsources:Biomassfeedstocksforethanol(68%),renewableenergyexceptethanol(24%)andnuclearpower(8%).ThecleardifferencebetweenIowaandtheU.S.overallisattributabletothelackoffossilfuelresourcesinIowa–whereasfortheU.S.overalldomesticallyproducedfeedstocksofcoal,naturalgasandcrudeoildominatetheproductionprofile.

2DataforthefollowingtablesandfiguresinChapterIIarefromtheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrations,StateEnergyDataSystems(SEDS)database,2000-2013(mostcurrentlyavailable).

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Figure3.ProductionShare(Btu)byMajorSourceCategory,2013

Intermsoftotalenergyproduction,Iowacurrentlyproduces0.9%ofU.S.production—aloweramountthanmightbeexpectedgiventhatIowacomprises1.58%oftotalU.S.landarea.Again,thisresultsfromthelandinIowanotoverlayingsignificantfossilfueldeposits.

Itisclear,however,thatinvestmentinrenewableenergyproductionhasprovidedanimportantboostinnetIowaenergyproduction.WithouttheuseofIowabiomass,wind,andtoalesserdegreehydro,resources,Iowa’sproductionversusconsumptionenergybalancewouldbesubstantiallyworse.

Conclusion2:Withoutasignificantbaseoffossilresources,Iowahastocurrentlyimportmorethantwicetherawenergythanitproduces.Investmentinrenewableenergyhas,however,improvedthebalanceofenergyequation.

Intermsofelectricitygeneration,Iowaproduced56,853,000Megawatt-hours(MWh)in2014(SeeTable4)withthelargestproportionofthiselectricityproductioncomingfromcoal-firedpowerplants(59.3%ofIowa’selectricityproduction).ThenexthighestproportionofgeneratedelectricitywithinIowacomesfromrenewablewindpower(28.7%)andnuclearpowerwhichgenerated7.3%ofIowa’selectricityproductionin2014.

ItshouldbenotedthattotalelectricpowergenerationinIowahasincreasedsignificantlysince2001.AsTable4shows,in2001totalutility-scaleproductionofelectricityinthestatetotaled40,659,000MWhwhichgrewto56,853,000MWhin2014(anincreaseinproductionof16,194,000MWh,or39.8%).Totalelectricityproducedbycoaldecreased2.69%overthistimeperiod–droppingfrom34,665,000MWhin2001to33,733,000MWhin2014.ThegrowthintotalelectricitygenerationinIowabetween

Nuclearpower(electricity)

8%

Biomassfeedstock

forethanol68%

Renewableenergyexceptethanol

24%

Iowa

Coal25%

Naturalgas35%

Crudeoil19%

Nuclearpower(electricity)

10%

Biomassfeedstockforethanol

2%

Renewableenergyexceptethanol

9%

U.S.

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2001and2014hasbeenalmostprimarilydrivenbythegrowthinwindgenerationwhichrosefrom488,000MWhin2001to16,307,000MWhin2014,a3,241.6%increase.Someotherelectricpowergenerationsourcessawgainsinproductionbetween2001and2014.Naturalgas-poweredelectricitygenerationgrewby131.5%whilebiomassgrewby155.8%.Petroleumliquidsdeclined,butpetcokeincreasedsubstantially,andnuclearsawmoderatepercentgains.

Table4:IowaAnnualElectricityGeneration,ChangeinGenerationMix2001-2014(Megawatt-hours)

ElectricityGenerationSource3

2001Megawatt-hoursofProduction

2014Megawatt-hoursofProduction

PercentChange

2001-2014

Percentof2014IowaElectricityGenerated

bythisSource

TOTAL 40,659,000 56,875,000 39.9% 100.0%

Coal 34,665,000 33,733,000 -2.7% 59.31%

Wind 488,000 16,307,000 3,241.6% 28.67%

Nuclear 3,853,000 4,152,000 7.8% 7.30%

NaturalGas 593,000 1,373,000 131.5% 2.41%

Hydroelectric(Conventional)

845,000 879,000 4.0% 1.55%

Biomass 104,000 266,000 155.8% 0.47%

PetroleumLiquids 99,000 59,000 -40.4% 0.10%

PetroleumCoke 4,000 85,000 2,025% 0.15%

Solar(All-DistributedandUtility)

0 21,000 -- 0.04%

Other 8,000 0 -- 0.00%

Source:DatafromU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration

Conclusion3:Since2001Iowahasincreaseditselectricpowergenerationby39.9%.Thevastmajorityofthisnewgenerationhascomeintheformofrenewablewindpower.TheneteffecthasbeenasignificantdecreaseintheoverallpercentageofIowa’selectricitygeneratedbyfossilfuelswhichdeclinedfrom87%in2001to62%in2014.

Renewables-basedelectricitygenerationhasbeenrisingdramaticallyinIowa,comprising17,473,000MWhofgenerationin2014(30.7%oftheState’selectricityproduction).Themajorityoftherenewablesproductioniswindgenerated(93.3%orrenewablesgeneration).ThechangingfaceofelectricpowergenerationinIowaiswellillustratedbythefactthatin2001just1.2%ofIowa’selectricitywasgeneratedbywind(with85.3%generatedbyimportedcoal),whereasin2014windgenerated28.67%ofIowaelectricity(andcoaldroppedto59.31%).

B. Iowa’sEnergyProfile-Consumption

JustasIowa’senergyproductionprofilediffersfromthatoftheU.S.overall,sodoesIowa’senergyconsumption.Iowa’seconomyismoreindustrially-intensivethantheU.S.economyoverall,andthisisreflectedinthefactthatIowaaccountsfor2.4%ofindustrialenergyconsumptionintheU.S.butcomprisesonly0.97%oftheU.S.population.ItispredominantlyIowa’sstrongindustrialeconomy,whichincludesagricultureandbiofuelsproductioninadditiontomanufacturing,thataccountsfor3IncludesbothutilityscaleplantsandIPP/CHPelectricitygeneration,plusdistributedsolar.U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration.

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Iowa’senergyconsumptionprofilelookingdifferenttothatoftheU.S.overall.Iowa'sthreelargestmanufacturingindustriesaremachinery,foodandbeverages,andchemicals.Takentogetherthesethreeindustriesaccountforalmosttwo-thirdsofIowa'smanufacturinggrossdomesticproduct(GDP).Iowaconsistentlyranksamongthetop10statesinthenationinshareofGDPfrommanufacturing.Transportationisthestate'ssecondlargestenergy-consumingsector.

Figure4.Consumption(Btu)SharebyEndUseSector,2013

Table5.EnergyConsumptionMetricsbyEndUseSector,2013

Iowa U.S.

Sector

2013Consumption(BillionBtu)

PercentChange,2000-2013

2013ShareofU.S.



Residential 253,709 7.1% 1.2% 21,181,996 3.9%

Commercial 215,696 24.8% 1.2% 17,894,337 4.2%

Industrial 747,332 46.3% 2.4% 31,378,925 -9.5%

Transportation 299,747 10.5% 1.1% 26,689,441 0.5%

TotalEnergyConsumption 1,516,483 27.2% 1.6% 97,144,709 -1.7%

Conclusion4:Iowa,withamoreindustrialeconomythantheU.S.overallsees“industry”(whichincludesagricultureaswellasmanufacturing)consumingconsiderablymorepowerasapercentageofStateconsumption.

ItshouldbenotedthatIowaindustryoverallhasbeengrowingfasterthanenergyconsumptioninIowa’sindustrialsector.Inotherwords,theindustrialsectoroftheIowaeconomyisbecominglessenergyintensiveovertime,ormoreenergyefficientinitsoperations.

Residential21.8%

Commercial18.4%

Industrial32.3%

Transportation27.5%

U.S.

Residential16.7%

Commercial14.2%

Industrial49.3%

Transportation19.8%

Iowa

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ExaminingconsumptiondatabyenergysourceagainrevealsaconsumptionprofilequitedifferenttothatoftheUnitedStatesoverall(Figure5andTable6).Iowausesrenewableenergytoamuchgreaterdegreethanthenationdoesoverall,andalsousesmorecoal.ItislessreliantthantheU.S.overallintheuseofnaturalgas,gasolineandotherpetroleum,andnuclearpower.

Figure5.Consumption(Btu)SharebyMajorSourceCategory,2013

Note:SharesdonotaccountforNetInterstateFlowofElectricity(Exports)

Table6:EnergyConsumptionMetricsbyMajorEnergyCategory,2013

Iowa U.S.

MajorEnergyCategory



2013ShareofU.S.



Coal 402.4 -9.8% 2.2% 18,038.8 -20.1%

FuelOil 138.9 23.9% 1.7% 8,066.4 1.8%

Gasoline 198.7 3.7% 1.2% 16,338.6 1.1%

AllOtherPetroleum 76.5 -18.2% 0.7% 10,323.2 -27.2%

NaturalGas 306.5 50.9% 1.1% 26,801.8 12.5%

Nuclear 55.6 19.7% 0.7% 8,244.4 4.9%

RenewableEnergy 384.7 376.5% 4.2% 9,147.6 49.8%

NetInterstateFlowofElectricity(Export) (46.8) 354.1% N/A N/A N/A

TotalEnergyConsumption 1,516.5 27.2% 1.6% 97,144.7 -1.7%

ToprovideadditionalcontexttoIowa’schangingportfolioofenergyconsumption,Figure6profilestheconsumptionmixintermsoftheshareofIowa’stotalconsumptionforfouryears—thestartingyearoftheanalysis(2000),thepre-recessionpeak(2007),thebeginningoftheeconomicexpansion(2010)andthemostcurrentdata(2013).ThesedataalsoincludethecontextofNetInterstateFlowElectricity

Coal25.7%

FuelOil8.9%

Gasoline12.7%AllOtherPetroleum

4.9%

NaturalGas19.6%

Nuclear3.6%

Renewable Energy24.6%

Iowa

Coal18.6%

FuelOil8.3%

Gasoline16.9%

AllOtherPetroleum10.6%

NaturalGas27.6%

Nuclear8.5%

Renewable Energy9.4%

U.S.

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whereIowawasasanimporterofelectricityin2000and2007,butanetexporterofelectricityin2010and2013.

Figure6.IowaEnergyConsumptionShare(Btu)byMajorSource,SelectYears

Conclusion5:IowadiffersinitsenergyconsumptionversustheU.S.overallintermsofusingrenewablesandcoalconsiderablymorethanaverageandothermajorfossilfuelresources(naturalgasandpetroleum/gasoline)less.

Iowa’sexpenditureprofileintermsoftheuseofenergyintheStateisnotallthatdifferentthanthatoftheU.S.overall(Figure7).Themaindifference,again,isthatIowaspendsahigherpercentofitstotalenergydollarsonindustrialuse(25.5%)versusthenation(17%).

37% 34% 33%27%

17%19%

19%20%

9% 10%

9%9%

6% 4%

4%4%

15%15%

13%12%

3%2%

1% 2%

4%3%

3% 4%

1%1%

1% 0%

1%0%

1% 1%

5%10%

15% 14%

0% 2%6% 10%

2% 0%

-5% -3%

2000 2007 2010 2013

NetInterstateFlowofElectricityWind

Solar/PV

Geothermal

OtherBiomass

FuelEthanol

HydroelectricPower

NuclearElectricPower

OtherPetroleum

MotorGasoline

LPG

DistillateFuelOil

NaturalGas

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Figure7.EnergyExpendituresShare($millions)byEndUseSector,2013

Table7.EnergyExpenditureMetricsbyEndUseSector,2013

Iowa U.S.

Sector

2013Expenditures($millions)


ShareofU.S.



Residential $2,755.5 51.8% 1.1% $250,457.4 61.3%

Commercial $1,965.2 88.9% 1.1% $179,359.6 58.1%

Industrial $4,395.5 90.3% 1.9% $233,272.3 65.3%

Transportation $8,149.2 169.8% 1.1% $712,216.5 156.2%

TotalEnergyExpenditures $17,265.4 110.9% 1.3% $,1375,305.9 100.0%

Between2000and2013IowasawitstotalexpendituresonfuelsincreaseatasomewhatfasterratethantheU.S.overall–withIowaexpendituresincreasing129.9%versusthenation’s119.9%.Theexpenditurecategoriesseeingthelargestpercentexpenditureincreaseswerefueloil(249.5%),biomass(woodandwaste,229.3%)andmotorgasoline(148.6%).Expendituresoneachofthesethreeenergysourcesincreasedataratehigherthantheydidinthenationoverall.Iowa’sexpendituresonretailelectricitydidnotincreasemuchmorethantheydidnationally(increasing62.8%versus60.7%inthenation).Overall,expendituresinIowaforenergyincreased10.9%morethantheydidforthenationoverallbetween2000and2013.

Residential18.2%

Commercial13.0%

Industrial17.0%

Transportation51.8%

U.S.

Residential16.0%

Commercial11.4%

Industrial25.5%

Transportation47.2%

Iowa

15

Table8.EnergyExpenditureMetricsbyMajorEnergyCategory,2013

Iowa U.S.

MajorEnergyCategory



2013ShareofU.S.



PrimaryUseFuels $13,490.4 129.9% 1.3% $1,003,224.6 119.9%

Coal $178.7 85.2% 2.6% $6,765.4 85.1%

Naturalgas $1,988.7 38.9% 1.7% $114,752.9 20.8%

Motorgasoline $5,580.8 148.6% 1.2% $467,337.6 143.2%

Fueloil $3,735.7 249.5% 1.7% $220,156.5 185.9%

Liquefiedpetroleumgases(LPGorpropane) $1,398.4 85.2% 2.5% $55,690.0 99.1%

Allotherpetroleumproducts(exceptGasoline,FuelOil,LPG) $575.6 121.1% 0.4% $131,898.7 129.6%

Biomass(Woodandwaste) $32.6 229.3% 0.5% $6,779.9 136.4%

RetailElectricity--AllFuels&Sourcesincl.NuclearandRenewable $3,775.0 62.8% 1.0% $372,081.3 60.7%

TotalEnergyExpenditures $17,265.4 110.9% 1.3% $1,375,305.9 100.0%Note:Primaryusecapturestheexpendituresonfuelsputtodirectuse.TheuseofthesefuelsforelectricitygenerationiscapturedwithintheRetailElectricitycategory.

Conclusion6:Iowa‘stotalenergyexpendituresforenergyhaveincreasedatarate10.9%overexpendituresinthenationbetween2000and2013.

16

C. Iowa’sElectricityProfile

Intermsofelectricityconsumption,Iowa’sindustrialsectorconsumesaconsiderablyhigherpercent(42%ofallelectricityintheState)thandoesthenationoverall(26.3%).

Figure8.ElectricityConsumption(Btu)byEndUseSector,2013

Table9.ElectricityConsumptionMetricsbyEndUseSector,2013

Iowa U.S.

Sector



2013ShareofU.S.



Residential 50,004 21.8% 1.1% 4,759,464 17.0%

Commercial 42,510 25.4% 0.9% 4,586,432 15.9%

Industrial 67,020 14.7% 2.0% 3,338,133 -8.1%

Transportation 0 0.0% 0.0% 26,017 41.7%

TotalEnergyConsumption 159,534 19.6% 1.3% 12,710,046 8.9%

Asimilarsituationholdsinoverallelectricityexpenditures(Figure9andTable10).

Residential31.3%

Commercial26.6%

Industrial42.0%

Transportation0.0%

Iowa

Residential37.4%

Commercial36.1%

Industrial26.3%

Transportation0.2%

U.S.

17

Figure9.ElectricityExpendituresbySector,2013

Table10.ElectricityExpendituresbySector,2013

Iowa U.S.

Sector



2013ShareofU.S.



Residential $1,618.7 60.7% 1.0% $169,112.6 72.2%

Commercial $1,051.5 62.7% 0.8% $138,229.1 62.4%

Industrial $1,104.8 66.0% 1.7% $63,934.9 33.6%

Transportation $0.0 0.0% 0.0% $804.8 111.6%

TotalElectricityExpenditures $3,775.0 62.8% 1.0% $372,081.3 60.7%

Residential42.9%

Commercial27.9%

Industrial29.3%

Transportation0.0%

Iowa

Residential45.5%

Commercial37.2%

Industrial17.2%

Transportation0.2%

U.S.

18

D. Iowa’sEnergyProfileinComparisontoSurroundingStates

ComparingIowa’senergyconsumptiontonationaloverallstatisticsprovidesausefulperspective,butsotoodoescomparingIowa’senergyconsumptiontothesixstatesthatborderIowa:Minnesota;Wisconsin;Illinois;Missouri;SouthDakota,andNebraska.BycomparingtheseNorthCentralU.S.statestoIowa,perspectivecanbegainedonhowIowadiffersinenergyconsumptionversussimilarsurroundingstates.

Itshould,ofcourse,benotedthatthesesevenstatesarenotallthesameintermsoftheirfundamentalnaturalenergyresources.Severalcontainsignificantfossilfuelresources(primarilycoal,butalsonaturalgasandcrudeoil)–whereasIowadoesnot.Similarly,differencesintopography,hydrology,soilsandmeteorologicalconditionsmeandifferingpotentialsforrenewableenergyproductionandin-stateconsumption.

Table11presentstheoverallsummarystatisticsforIowaandthebenchmarkstates.Obviously,givensignificantlydifferentpopulationsizestotalconsumptionvariessignificantly–sodatahavebeennormalizedbyTEConomyPartnersintermsofconsumptionpercapitaandtotalenergyconsumptionasapercentofstateGDP,formoreappropriatecomparisons.

Table11.EnergyConsumption,IowaandBenchmarkStates,2013

StateTotalEnergyConsumption(MillionBtu)

Rank

TotalEnergyConsumption(MillionBtu)perCapita

Rank

EnergyConsumptionIntensityofGSP*

Rank

Iowa 1,516,483 24 490 5 9.22 12

Illinois 4,011,485 4 311 25 5.60 31

Minnesota 1,859,790 18 343 18 6.06 29

Missouri 1,857,005 19 307 26 6.81 23

Nebraska 871,805 33 466 7 8.14 19

SouthDakota 390,367 45 462 8 8.73 15

Wisconsin 1,804,018 21 314 24 6.42 26*Note:EnergyConsumptionIntensityofGSPiscalculatedastotalenergyconsumptionaspercentofGDP.

ThebenchmarkdatashowthatIowahasthehighestconsumptionofenergypercapitaamongthebenchmarkstates(wheretherangerunsfromalowof311millionBtupercapitainIllinois,toIowa’shighof490).IowasimilarlyhasthehighestenergyconsumptionintensityasmeasuredbyenergyconsumptionasapercentofGDP.Thesehighnormalizedrankslargelyreflectthesignificantindustrial-orientedenergyconsumptionwithinIowa.

19

Table12examinesstatisticsforthebenchmarkstatesintermsofenergyexpenditures.Again,Iowahasthehighestexpenditurespercapitaonenergy($5,583.30percapitafor2013).Intermsofenergyexpenditureintensity,SouthDakotahasthehighest(10.54)closelyfollowedbyIowaat(10.50).

Table12.EnergyExpenditures,IowaandBenchmarkStates,2013

StateTotalEnergyExpenditures($million)

RankTotalEnergyExpendituresperCapita(S)

Rank

EnergyExpenditureIntensityofGSP*

Rank

Iowa $17,265.4 28 $5,583.3 7 10.50 19

Illinois $49,296.6 7 $3,824.2 39 6.89 42

Minnesota $24,689.5 20 $4,553.5 22 8.05 36

Missouri $26,721.7 17 $4,420.5 25 9.79 24

Nebraska $10,293.8 35 $5,507.7 9 9.61 26

SouthDakota $4,708.9 47 $5,569.3 8 10.54 18

Wisconsin $24,715.9 19 $4,303.7 30 8.80 30*Note:EnergyExpenditureIntensityofGSPiscalculatedastotalenergyexpendituresaspercentofGDP.

Conclusion7:ForIowa,undertakingastateenergystrategyisparticularlyimportantsinceenergyconsumptionandexpenditurepercapitaishigherthanitisinsurroundingstates,asis(generally)theintensityofenergyuseasmeasuredasapercentageofstateGDP.

AppendixAprovidesfurtherdetailoncomparativeconsumptionofspecificenergyresourcesacrossIowaandthebenchmarkstates.Benchmarkprofilesareprovidedfor:

• Coal

• NaturalGas

• Petroleum

• MotorGasoline

• FuelOil

• Propane

• Nuclear

• RenewableFuels(withbreak-outsforwind,biomassandethanol).

20

III. EnergyasaKeyEmployerinIowa

A. Iowa’sEmploymentGrowth,SizeandSpecializationinEnergySub-Sectors

AsdiscussedinChapterI,TEConomyPartnersusesafairlybroaddefinitionofenergyandenergy-relatedsectorsoftheeconomy(seeTable1).Thedefinitionnotonlyincludesindustrysectorsengagedinextractingenergyresources,generatingpower,ordistributingandretailingpower,butalsoincludesthemanyrelatedindustrysectorsthatprovidetools,technologiesandservicestotheenergyindustryortoconsumersofenergy.Ineffect,thedefinitionusedcapturesandbreaks-outthekeycomponentsoftheenergysectorvalue-chain.

ExaminingIowa’senergyprofileintermsofthisvalue-chainandthejobsitgeneratesinthestateisimportant,andgeneratingabaselineprofileofemploymentandemploymenttrendsacrosstheenergyvalue-chainisakeystartingpointforstrategicplanning.

Table1showsthefullcomplementof32NAICSusedtodefinetheoverallenergysectorinIowa.TEConomyPartnersassignedeachoftheseindividualNAICStooneofeightsubsectorsforanalysispurposes:

• BiodieselProduction

• EthanolProduction

• ExtractionandResourceDevelopment

• OtherRenewableEnergyandStorage

• PetroleumProductsandWholesale

• PowerTransmissionandDistribution

• PowerGeneration

• Refineries.

Table13summarizesmostrecentlyavailableestablishmentandemploymentdata(2014)fortheseeightsubsectorsandalsoshowsforcomparisontotalprivatesectorandtotalmanufacturingemployment.Intotal,theIowaenergysectorconsistsof849establishments,withacombinedemploymentof16,292(1.3%ofthestate’stotalprivatesectorlaborforce).

Theoverallenergysectorcurrentlyisrelativelyunder-concentratedinIowaandthereforenotseenasastate“specialization”sincethelocationquotient(LQ)4forthislevelofenergyemploymentreachesonly0.78(astatespecialization,asdesignatedbyTEConomy,requiresanLQof1.2orhigher).AtanLQof0.78,theenergysectorinIowaemploysapproximately22%fewerworkersthanwouldbeexpected,giventheenergysector’soverallshareofemploymentinthenationaleconomy.

4Locationquotients(LQs)areastandardmeasureoftheconcentrationofaparticularindustryinaregionrelativetothenation.TheLQistheshareoftotalstateorregionalemploymentintheparticularindustrydividedbytheshareoftotalindustryemploymentinthenation.AnLQgreaterthan1.0foraparticularindustryindicatesthattheregionhasagreaterrelativeconcentration,whereasanLQlessthan1.0signifiesarelativeunderrepresentation.AnLQgreaterthan1.20denotesemploymentconcentrationsignificantlyabovethenationalaverage.Inthisanalysis,regionalspecializationsaredefinedbyLQsof1.20orgreater.

21

Table13:IowaEstablishments,EmploymentandLocationQuotientsfortheTotalEnergySectorandIndividualSubsectors,2014

EnergySubsector

IowaEstablishments,2014

IowaEmployment,2014

IowaLocationQuotient,2014

IowaEmployment%Change,2001–14

U.S.Employment%Change,2001–14

TotalEnergySector 849 16,292 0.78 22.2% 18.6%

PowerTransmission/Distribution5 428 7,011 0.88 -2.8% 25.6%

OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage 12 2,606 4.42 143.6% -7.7%

PowerGeneration 99 2,520 1.41 -5.1% -42.3%

EthanolProduction 40 1,845 15.71 3838.6% 225.1%

PetroleumProducts&Wholesale 242 1,699 0.88 -22.3% -20.5%

BiodieselProduction 14 550 1.37 310.4% -5.2%

Refineries 3 39 0.05 254.5% -7.6%

Extraction/ResourceDevelopment 11 22 0.00 161.7% 91.7%

TotalPrivateSector6 93,351 1,280,079 1.00 6.5% 5.5%

TotalManufacturing 4,048 216,834 1.61 -10.0% -25.8%

Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofBureauofLaborStatistics,QCEWdataandenhancedfilefromIMPLAN.

WhiletheoverallenergysectorinIowaisnotastatespecialization(asmeasuredbylocationquotient)thisshouldnotobscurethefactthatemploymentishighlyconcentratedamongseveralkeyenergysubsectors,withfour—ethanolproduction(LQ=15.71),otherrenewableenergy&storage(LQ=4.42),powergeneration(LQ=1.41),andbiodieselproduction(LQ=1.37)allrisingtothelevelofstate“specializations.”

SeveralofthesubsectorshavebeensignificantnewjobgeneratorsforIowaovertheassessedtimeperiodof2001through2014.OveralltheenergysectorinIowaemploys16,292personnelandincreasedemploymentby22.2%between2001-2014,largerthanthegrowthseennationally.Notably,biodieselproductiongrewby310.4%andotherrenewableenergyandstoragegrewemploymentby143.6%overthistimeperiod(alsoreaching2,606jobsin2014)whileethanolproductiontrulyemergedasastateindustrysectorgrowingby3,838%toreach1,845jobs.Inallthreecases,thesesectorsfaroutpacedgrowthratesinthosesubsectorswithinthenationoverall.

Conclusion8:ThoughtheenergysectoroverallisacurrentlynotaspecializedindustryforIowa,distinctniches(subsectors)existwithinIowathatarespecializedanddoshowsignificantgrowth.Inaddition,theenergysectorhasbeenasignificantjobgenerator,faroutpacingoverallprivatesectorgrowthinthestate.

Overall,employmentgrowthinIowa’senergysector,benchmarkedagainstnationalemploymentgrowth,hasperformedaswellasthenationoverall,andfarout-performedaverageprivatesectorindustrygrowthinthestate.Structuralchangesintheenergyindustryledtodeclinesintheearly2000’sinIowaandtheU.S.overall.Afterthisstructuraldecline,theenergysectors’employmentbegana

5Sub-sectorsshowncomprisetheindividualNAICSlistedonTable1.6Thiscategory,forcomparisonpurposesshowsallprivatesectorjobsinthestate(i.e.notjustthoseintheenergysector).

22

steadyperiodofgrowth,forbothIowaandtheU.S.,withtheexceptionofslightemploymentdeclinesduringtherecessionaryperiodbetween2007–2010(Figure10).ItshouldbenotedthatIowa’senergysectoractuallyonlyexperiencedoneemploymentdecline(2010).Between2010and2014,aperiodofeconomicexpansion,energysectoremploymentinIowagrew14.9%comparedto16.5%growthnationally(thisinpartduetosteeperrecessionarydeclinesintheU.S.energysector).

Conclusion9:TheIowaEnergysectorhasseensignificantnetgrowthinemploymentsince2001,performingatthesamelevelastheU.S.EnergysectorandoutperformingIowa’soverallprivatesector.

Figure10:TotalEnergySectorEmploymentTrendsforIowaandtheU.S.for2001through2014


Byanalyzingtheindividualenergysubsectors’locationquotientsandcomparativeemploymentgrowthratesversusthenation,itispossibletoseewhichenergysubsectorsareperformingmoststronglyforIowa.Thebubblechart(Figure11)isdividedintofourquadrantswithquadrantstotherightoftheverticalaxisinthecenterofthechartrepresentingareasofemploymentgrowthoverthetimeperiodevaluated(2001–2014)andthequadrantstotheleftcontainingsectorsthatsawemploymentdecline.Quadrantsabovethehorizontallinerepresentstatespecializationindustries,definedbytheirlocationquotientbeinggreaterthan1.0.Clearly,theidealplacefromastateperspectiveforasubsectortobeistheupperrightquadrant(specializedandgrowing),whilethebottomrightquadrantrepresentspromisingareasinwhichthestateisexperiencinggrowth,butnotyetachievedspecializationstatus.Thesizeofeachbubbleisproportionaltothelevelofemploymentinthatenergysubsector.

AsFigure11shows,theIowaenergysectorcurrentlycontainstworobust“star”energysubsectorsthatarebothspecializedandgrowing,thesebeing“otherrenewableenergyandstorage”(2,606employees

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Employ

men

tInd

ex(2001=100)

Iowa&U.S.EmploymentperYear,Indexedto2001

IATotalEnergyClusterIATotalPrivateSectorU.S.TotalEnergyClusterU.S.TotalPrivateSector

23

in2014)and“ethanolproduction”(1,845employeesin2014).The“powergeneration”subsectorisalsoastatespecializationforIowa,butexperiencedemploymentdeclinesoverthe2001–2014period(2,520employeesin2014).Overall,thesignificantsizeofthe“powertransmission/distribution”sectorisapparent,butthissubsectorhasheldatslightlybelowthenationalaveragespecializationwithaslightemploymentdeclineduringtheperiod.

Twosubsectors“extraction/resourcedevelopment”and“refineries”whileconsideredtobeemergingpotentialquadranthavesignificantgrowthratesduetoextremelysmall2001employment.Itshouldalsobenotedthatwhilethestate“refineries”subsectorincludes39employees;itishighlylikelythatthesethreerefineryestablishmentsareactuallyinvolvedinpetrochemical-relatedrefiningnotenergy-relatedproduction.

Figure11:IowaEnergyEmploymentSize,Growth,andDegreeofSpecialization(LQ)bySubsector,for2001-2014

Source:TEConomyPartnersLLCanalysisofBureauofLaborStatistics,QCEWdataandenhancedfilefromIMPLAN.

Conclusion10:Withintheenergysectortwosubsectorsrelatedtorenewableenergy–“ethanolproduction”and“otherrenewableenergy&storage”arethehighperformingsubsectorsforIowa.However,morethan40%ofthetotalenergysector’semploymentisinpowertransmission/distribution.

Inbreakingthedatadowntoafinerlevelofgranularity,itisevidentthatfiveofthe32energyNAICSindustriesarelarge(>1,000jobs)andspecialized(LQ>1.2),withthreeofthesefivealsoexhibitingsubstantialemploymentgrowth(Table14).Thesefiveindustrycomponentsaccountfortwo-thirdsof

OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage

PowerTransmission/Distribution

PowerGeneration

EthanolProduction

PetroleumProducts&Wholesale

RefineriesExtraction/ResourceDevelopment

BiodieselProduction

-0.50

0.50

1.50

2.50

3.50

4.50

5.50

6.50

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%

Locatio

nQu

otient,2014

EmploymentPercentChange,2001-14

ActualPercentGrowth=3,838.6%

ActualLQ=15.71

Quadrant 1Stars

Quadrant 2Transitional

Quadrant 3Divergent

Quadrant 4EmergingPotential

24

thetotalIowaenergysectors’employmentin2014.7Thesignificantgrowthofthestateethylalcohol(ethanol)productionisclearlyevident,aswellassignificantgrowthinthemanufactureofturbineandturbinegeneratorsetsusedinavarietyofenergy-relatedapplicationsfromwindturbines,tohydroelectricturbines,toturbinessetsusedinotherpowergenerationapplications.

Table14:PerformanceofLarge&SpecializedDetailedIowaEnergySectors,2001-2014

EnergySubsector NAICSDescription

Establishments Employment LocationQuotient(LQ)2014Number,

2014Growth,2001-2014

Jobs,2014

Growth,2001-2014

EthanolProduction EthylAlcoholManufacturing(325193) 40 1100.0% 1,845 3838.6% 15.71


TurbineandTurbineGeneratorSetUnitsManufacturing(333611)

8 220.0% 1,896 728.5% 6.37

PowerGeneration FossilFuelElectricPowerGeneration(221112) 77 -33.0% 1,759 -24.7% 1.60


ElectricPowerDistribution(221122)

145 17.6% 2,846 -19.2% 1.26

Power/CommunicationLineandRelatedStructuresConstruction(237130)

158 41.1% 2,202 112.8% 1.20


Ofthe31NAICSenergyandenergy-relatedindustriescapturedinthebroadenergydefinition,Iowacurrentlyhasemploymentin23.Eachoftheseindustries,eachoftheeightenergysubsectors,andtheoverallIowaenergysectorareanalyzedaccordingtotheIndustryTargetingAnalysisgraphic(Figure12)whichdividestheseindustriesintorelativeperformancecategoriesbasedontheirperformanceonlocationquotients,growthordeclineinemployment,andgrowthordeclineinemploymentshareversusthenation.TheresultsofthistargetinganalysisareshowninTable15.

7Itshouldbenoted,thatwithinthelimitationsplacedonthisanalysisbythenatureoftheNorthAmericanIndustrialClassificationSystem(NAICS)thereisastronglikelihoodofenergy-relatedemploymentalsospreadthroughoutavarietyofadditionalNAICScodes,whicharenotprimarilyenergy-relatedinnature.Forexample,acompanymakingfoaminsulation,wouldbeincludedwithinabroaderplastics-relatedNAICScodethatincludessubstantialnon-energy-relatedemployment.

25

Figure12.IndustryTargetingAnalysisforIowaEnergySectorandSubsectors


B. EmploymentCompensationintheIowaEnergySector

Agoalofeconomicdevelopersisnotjusttohelppromotethecreationofjobs,butalsotoparticularlyencouragethegenerationof“highquality”jobs—jobspayingaboveaverage,family-sustainingwagelevels.BureauofLaborStatisticsdataconfirmthatIowaenergyjobsindeedarehigh-quality—payinga2014averageannualwageof$73,412in2014whichisconsiderablyhigherthanthestate’saverageprivatesectorwageof$41,964.JobsinIowa’spowergenerationandpowertransmission/distributionenergysubsectorsareparticularlyhighpaying,withanaverageof$102,264and$80,135respectively.Infact,alleightofIowa’senergysubsectorspayatorabovethestate’saverageannualwage.

Is the industry a specialization for Iowa?

From 2001 to 2014 did the industry grow in the State of Iowa?

Did Iowa industry gain competitiv e share from 2001 to 2014

Stars

Specialized,growing andgaining national share (growing at faster rate than U.S. overall)

Opportunities

Specialized, and growing but not as fast as U.S. overall

Higher Priority Retention Targets

Specialized, but prospects limited due to external trends, but out-performing U.S. overall

Lower Priority Retention Targets

Specialized, but prospects limited due to local weaknesses

EmergingStrengths

Not yet specialized, but growing and gaining share. May represent up and coming stars

Prospects limited due to weak base and external trendsNot specialized, not gaining employment, but lost jobs slower than U.S. overall

Prospects very limited

Not specialized, not growing, and actually losingJobs faster than U.S. overall

Universe of Energy Oriented Business SectorsBiodieselProduction EthanolProduction Extraction/Resource DevelopmentOtherRenewableEnergy&Storage PetroleumProducts &Wholesale PowerGenerationPowerTransmission/Distribution Refineries TotalEnergyCluster

Location Quotient > 1.20 Current Specialization

BiodieselProductionEthanolProductionOtherRenewableEnergy&StoragePowerGeneration

Location Quotient <=1.20 Not a Current Specialization

Extraction/ResourceDevelopmentPetroleumProducts&WholesalePowerTransmission/DistributionRefineriesTotalEnergyCluster

Employment Growth

BiodieselProduction

Ethanol Production


No Employment Growth orEmployment Decline

PowerGeneration

Employment Growth

Extraction/ResourceDevelopment

Refineries

Total Energy Cluster

No Employment Growth orEmployment Decline



Share Gain(Strong

Performer)

BiodieselProduction

EthanolProduction


Share Loss

(Lagging Performer)

Share Gain

(Constrained Performer)

PowerGeneration

Share Loss(Poor

Performer)

Share Gain(Strong

Performer)

Extraction/ResourceDevelopment

Refineries

TotalEnergyCluster

Share Loss

(Lagging Performer)

Share Gain(Constrained Performer)


Share Loss (Poor

Performer)


EmergingOpportunity

Not specialized, but is gaining employment albeit not as fast as U.S. overall

26

Table15:TargetingAnalysisofIowa’sEnergySector,Subsectors,andNAICS-levelIndustry

NAICSDescription IowaIndustrySpecialization IowaIndustryGrowthIowaGained

CompetitiveShare TargetStatusBiodieselProduction CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain StarsOtherOrganicChemicalManufacturing CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain Stars

EthanolProduction CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain StarsEthylAlcoholManufacturing CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain Stars

Extraction/ResourceDevelopment NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsDrillingOilandGasWells NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsSupportActivitiesforOilandGasOperations NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss EmergingOpportunitySupportActivitiesforCoalMining NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengths

OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain StarsTurbineandTurbineGeneratorSetUnitsMfg. CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain StarsStorageBatteryManufacturing CurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareGain HigherPriorityRetentionTargetsPrimaryBatteryManufacturing NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengths

PetroleumProducts&Wholesale NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsVeryLimitedPetroleumBulkStationsandTerminals NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsPetroleumandPetroleumProductsWholesalers CurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss LowerPriorityRetentionTargetsHeatingOilDealers NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsVeryLimitedLiquefiedPetroleumGas(BottledGas)Dealers NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsVeryLimited

PowerGeneration CurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareGain HigherPriorityRetentionTargetsHydroelectricPowerGeneration NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsVeryLimitedFossilFuelElectricPowerGeneration CurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareGain HigherPriorityRetentionTargetsNuclearElectricPowerGeneration NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsOtherElectricPowerGeneration CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain Stars

PowerTransmission/Distribution NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsLimitedElectricBulkPowerTransmissionandControl NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsElectricPowerDistribution CurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareGain HigherPriorityRetentionTargetsNaturalGasDistribution NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsVeryLimitedOil/GasPipelineandRelatedStructuresConst. NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsPower/CommunicationLineandRelatedStructuresConst. CurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain StarsPipelineTransport.ofNaturalGas NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsPipelineTransport.ofRefinedPetroleumProducts NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentDecline ShareLoss ProspectsVeryLimited

Refineries NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengthsPetroleumRefineries NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengths

TotalEnergySector NotaCurrentSpecialization EmploymentGrowth ShareGain EmergingStrengths


27

FromaneconomicdevelopmentmarketingperspectivepaylevelsinIowaarestillconsiderablybelowthoseforthenationaleconomyoverall.Thatis,employersdonotpayasmuchinIowaforlaborasinotherU.S.locationsonaverage—Iowaenergywages,onaverage,areonly76%ofthenationallevel.Differencesinwagescanreflectthecompositionoftheindustrysectorandtheskillsetsindemand,thecostsoflivinganddoingbusiness,thevalue-addedwithinanindustrycomparedwithotherregions,andmanyotherreasons.

Table16:AverageWagesforSelectIowaandU.S.Industries,2014

IndustrySector,Subsector,orSector IowaAverageWages,2014

U.S.AverageWages,2014

IowaWageShareofU.S.Wage

PowerGeneration $102,264 $111,298 92%

PowerTransmission/Distribution $80,135 $87,232 92%

ManagementofCompanies&Enterprises $77,959 $112,868 69%

BiodieselProduction $77,954 $93,063 84%

TotalEnergySector $73,254 $96,468 76%

Finance&Insurance $68,456 $97,373 70%

Professional,Scientific,&TechnicalServices $60,472 $86,391 70%

Refineries $60,158 $132,020 46%

WholesaleTrade $58,766 $71,043 83%

Manufacturing $54,418 $62,977 86%

Construction $51,934 $55,040 94%

Extraction/ResourceDevelopment $51,191 $109,875 47%

Information $50,764 $90,804 56%

OtherRenewableEnergy&Storage $49,907 $73,100 68%

PetroleumProducts&Wholesale $45,693 $63,903 72%

RealEstate&Rental&Leasing $42,762 $51,808 83%

Transportation&Warehousing $42,047 $48,720 86%

EthanolProduction $41,964 $74,758 56%

TotalPrivateSector $41,964 $51,298 82%

HealthCare&SocialAssistance $39,605 $45,859 86%

Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing&Hunting $37,113 $30,625 121%

RetailTrade $24,673 $28,743 86%

Arts,Entertainment,&Recreation $17,540 $34,856 50%


Conclusion11:TheenergysectorinIowapayshigherwagesincomparisontotheprivate

sectoroverallinthestate.Itprovidesthesortofhighquality,family-sustainingjobsthat

economicdevelopersseektogrow.

C. LaborProductivityintheIowaEnergySector

Comparingtheproductivityofastatesectortoitsnationallevelprovidesinsightsintowhetherthestateindustryismoreorlesscompetitive.Higherlevelsofproductivitycomparedtothenationmeanthatforeachjobmoreeconomicoutputisgeneratedsuggestingthatalocalindustryisbetterabletomakeuse

28

ofadvancesintechnologytoproducegoodsandservicesandisabletoproducemorecomplex,highervalueproducts.

Intermsoflaborproductivityintheenergysector,measuredbyvalue-addedperworker8,Iowalagsbehindthenation.Latestdata,for2014(Table17),showsthattheenergysectorinIowaproduces$193,326invalue-addedactivityperemployee,versus$263,028forthenation.9ThusIowa’senergyproductivitylevelrunsatabout74%ofthenationallevel.However,takingintoaccountthefactthatIowaenergywagesare,onaverage,only76%ofthenationallevelitisevidentthattheIowaworkforceiseffectivelystillgoodvalueformoney.

Table17:Value-AddedperWorkerintheEnergySector2014—IowaComparedtotheU.S.

IndustrySector IowaProductivity,2014 U.S.Productivity,2014IowaProductivityShareofU.S.Productivity

EnergySector $193,326 $263,028 74%

TotalPrivateSector $88,548 $93,915 94%

Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofIMPLANInput/OutputModelforIowaandtheU.S.

Itisalsoclearfromthesehighdollarvaluesthattheenergysector,ingeneral,ishighlycapitalintensive—i.e.,itisanindustryinwhichtheinfrastructurerequiredtoproduceitsproduct(ethanolproductionequipment,powerstations,distributioninfrastructure,etc.)requirehighlevelsofinvestmentincomparisontothetotalnumberofjobsgenerated.Thisisevidencedbythefactthattheenergysectorproduces$193,326invalue-addedperworkerinIowa,versusjust$88,548perworkerintheprivatesectoronaverage.Inhighlycapitalintensiveindustries,relativewageratesforworkerscanbearelativelyminorlocationfactorand,inthisregard,thecomparativelylowerlevelsofwagespaidintheenergysectorinIowamaynotbeaparticularlystrongcomparativeadvantage.

Productivityvarieswidelyacrossthevariousenergysubsectors,withpowergenerationhavingthelargestvalue-addedperemployeeinbothIowaandtheU.S.,$508,765and$546,474,respectively—againindicatingtheextremecapitalintensityofthissubsector.ImportantforIowaisthatethanolproductionproductivity,asmeasuredbyvalue-addedperemployee,reached$309,805in2014,comparedtotheU.S.levelof$253,645.

Conclusion12:WhileoverallIowaenergywagesandproductivitylevelsarelowerthanthe

nationalaverageforthesector,therelationshipbetweenwagesandproductivityisslightly

betterthanthenationalaverageandkeysubsectorsoffersignificantcompetitiveadvantage

andopportunities.

8Value-addedrepresentsthedifferencebetweenanindustry’stotaloutputandthecostofitsintermediateinputs;ameasureofthesector’scontributiontoGSP.Asignificantcomponentofvalue-addedisworkerwages.Themeasureofvalue-addedperemployeeisoftenusedasameasureofoverallindustryproductivity.9Someindustriesdonotmapdirectly1:1fromNAICStotheIMPLANmodel-specificindustrysectorsandthereforesomeareleftoutofthisanalysisasincludingthefullIMPLANsectorwouldbeoverlyinclusive(e.g.,Energy-relatedsectorsinWholesaleandRetailarenotincludedinthiscalculation).

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IV. PreliminaryScenariosforEnergyChangeinIowa

A. InitialScenarioDevelopment

TheultimategoaloftheseIowaenergyscenariosistoestablishafuturepathforenergydevelopmentactivitiesintheState.Thisinitialsetofscenariosaredevelopedtoprovideabasic“baseline”perspectiveofrecentenergyperformance,measuredbyconsumption(demand)andproduction(supply)andhowevenasimplecontinuationofthisperformancewillalterIowa’sfutureenergylandscape,andhowchoices,strategies,andactionsdevelopedaspartoftheIowaEnergyPlancanalterIowa’senergyfuture.

Thisinitialsetofscenarioswillbeupdated,modified,andreplacedusingadditionaland“tobecollected”informationfromthestate’senergystakeholdersthroughbothinterviewsandworkinggroupperspectives,leadingtoafinalsetofscenariosthatplotpotentialenergyfuturesforIowa.Theseinitialscenariosprovideforecastsforthemajorenergyfuel-relatedgroupsofcoal,naturalgas,petroleum(oil),nuclear,andrenewable(includinghydro-electric,geothermal,biomass,solar,etc.)aswellastotalenergyconsumptionandacompositeofthecombinedfivefuel-relatedgroups.

ScenarioI:ContinuationofDecade-plusTrends

ThefirstscenarioshowspreviousIowaenergyconsumptionfrom2000through2013(shadedarea)andthenextendsthisconsumptionperformance,baseduponthecalculatedcompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)ofthisperformanceto2025(Figure13).

Figure13.IowaEnergyConsumptionForecastto2025at2000-2013CAGR.

Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationdataforIowa.Note:CAGR=CompoundAnnualGrowthRate.

0

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IowaEnergyConsumption:SelectSources,2000-'25

Coal NaturalGas Petroleum

Nuclear(Electricity) RenewableEnergy CombinedFiveGroupConsumption

TotalEnergyConsumption

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Thisscenariodepictsacontinuationoftheextremegrowthinrenewableenergyconsumptionwithinthestateoverthe2000-2013period,andwhatconsumptionvaluesforthisenergysourcewouldlooklikeintheunlikelycasethatallfiveenergygroupscontinuedontheirhistoricalpath.Inthisscenariorenewableenergyconsumption’ssubstantialgrowth(CAGR=12.8%)alongwithrelativelyflatgrowthorslightdeclinesintheremainingfuelgroupsshowthecombinedgrowthwouldfarsurpassoverallprojectedtotalenergyconsumptiongrowth.

ScenarioII:ContinuationofMoreRecentTrends

Thesecondscenario(Figure14)showsasimilarforecastapproach,butonlyusesthetruncatedrecentperiod,2010-2013,toestablishthehistoricalCAGRratefortheforecast.Thismorerecentgrowthrateeliminatessomeoftheextremelyhighgrowthperiodsintheearly2000’sastherenewableenergysectorbegandevelopinginIowa.

Figure14.IowaEnergyConsumptionForecastto2025at2010-1013CAGR.

Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationdataforIowa.

EvenwiththeCAGRfocusedonthemostrecentperiod,therenewableenergysectorcontinuesasignificantCAGRof4.3%peryear.Thislessenedgrowthrateinrenewableenergyiscombinedwithanowmorepronounceddeclineincoalconsumption(CAGRfrom2000-2013=-0.8%;CAGRfrom2010-2013=-6.6%),tobringthecombinedfivegroupconsumptionforecastmuchclosertototalenergyconsumptionforecast,yetitstillexceedsitby200,000BillionBtu.

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Coal NaturalGas Petroleum

Nuclear(Electricity) RenewableEnergy CombinedFiveGroupConsumption

TotalEnergyConsumption

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ScenarioIII:NationalEIAForecasts

Thethirdinitialscenario(Figure15)replacesIowaconsumptionforecastCAGRs,builtuponIowahistoricalconsumptiondata,withaforecastbuiltuponanexistingU.S.EIAforecastfortheWestNorthCentralregionthatisacomponentoftheirAnnualEnergyOutlook(AEO).10IntheirAEO,theU.S.EIAforecastsenergyconsumptioninamostlysimilarcontexttotheyear2040.11Forthepurposesofthisscenario,aCAGRwascalculatedfromtheAEOWestNorthCentralforecastfortheyears2013-2025tocoincidewiththepreviousscenarios.

Inthisscenario,totalenergyconsumptionisforecasttogrowataCAGRoflessthan1.0%similartoScenarioII.WithScenarioIII’sforecastbuiltuponthestructuredforecastoftheAEOthedevelopedCAGRleadtoacombinationofthefiveenergygroupsequalingthetotalenergyconsumptionforecast.12

Figure15.IowaEnergyConsumptionForecastto2025atU.S.EIAAEOForecast2013-2025CAGR.

Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationdataforIowaandAnnualEnergyOutlookdatafortheWestNorthCentralRegion(whichincludesIowa).

ScenarioIV:ProductionForecast

Thefourthscenario(Figure16)depictsIowahistoricalproductionfrom2000-2013inthethreeareasinwhichIowacurrentlyproducesenergy—nuclearenergyproduction,otherrenewableenergy(electricity)

10TheWestNorthCentralRegionisdefinedasIowa,Missouri,Missouri,Kansas,Nebraska,SouthDakota,NorthDakota,andMinnesota.11SomeslightdefinitionaldifferencesexistbetweentheAEOcategoriesandU.S.EIASEDSdatausedforthebaseIowaconsumptiondatafrom2000-2013.Atthebroadenergygroupsusedinthesebasicscenariosthedifferencesarenegligible.12Forpurposesofthesebaseline,illustrativescenarios,theforecastyearsdonottakeintoaccountnetenergylossandimport/exportconsiderations.

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production,andethanolproduction.Threeforecastsaredevelopedforeachsource—aCAGRbaseduponIowa’shistorical2000-2013production(IACAGR’00-’13),aCAGRbaseduponIowa’shistorical2010-2013production(IACAGR’10-’13),andaCAGRbaseduponoverallU.S.2010-2013production(U.S.CAGR’10-’13).

Figure16.IowaEnergyProductionForecastto2025,VariousProjectedGrowthRates.

Source:TEConomyPartnersanalysisofU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationdataforIowaandtheU.S.

WhatismostsurprisingwhenexaminingScenarioIVisthatwiththeexceptionoftheethanolproductionforecastbaseduponthe2000-2013CAGR,thefutureproductionforecastsareverysimilar,withtheU.S.-basedforecastforotherrenewableenergyslightlylower.

B. ScenarioDevelopmentNextSteps

Asdescribed,thesescenarioscapturetheIowaenergy-consumptiondatacontainedwithinthiswhitepaperanddevelopssimple,baselinescenariostobeginthediscussionofIowa’senergyfuture.Additionalscenarioswillbedevelopedandsharedwithstakeholdersandworkinggroupsasadditional

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IowaEnergyProduction:SelectSources,2000-'25

NuclearEnergyProduction(IACAGR'00-'13) OtherRenewableEnergy(IACAGR'00-'13)(Electricity)Production

EthanolProduction(IACAGR'00-'13)

NuclearEnergyProduction(IACAGR'10-'13) OtherRenewableEnergy(IACAGR'10-'13)(Electricity)Production

EthanolProduction(IACAGR'10-'13)

NuclearEnergyProduction(USCAGR'10-'13) OtherRenewableEnergy(USCAGR'10-'13)(Electricity)Production

EthanolProduction(USCAGR'10-'13)

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dataisgathered,theprojectprogressesandinformationpertainingtopotentialviablescenariosisreceived.

Ataminimumthenextwaveofscenarioswillbegintoexplorekeyvariables,opportunities,andpolicyinitiativesandwillinclude,amongothers:

• UnderstandingexistingplannedcapacityandgenerationchangeswithinIowaonbothproductionandconsumption.

• RoleoftheCleanPowerPlananditspotentialimpactsonbothgenerationcapacityandenergyavailability.

• RenewablePortfolioStandard-influencedportfoliochanges.

• Continuedmanufacturingexpansiononconsumptionmix.

• Reconcilingdifferencesanddistinctionsbetweenconsumptionanddemandforecasts.

ThoughtsonhowthesefactorswillweighonandimpactthescenariosforIowa’senergyfuturewillbebroughttolightthroughtheon-goingeffortsofthisproject.

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APPENDIXA:PerformanceComparisonbyEnergyCategory–IowaandSurroundingBenchmarkStates

DataforthefollowingtablesandfiguresinChapterIIarefromtheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrations,StateEnergyDataSystems(SEDS)database,2000-2013(mostcurrentlyavailable).

CoalDemandProfile

TableA1.CoalConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState

Consumption(BillionBtu)

ConsumptionPercentChange,

2000-2013

Expenditures($Millions)

Price($perMillionBtu)

State Metric StateRank Metric State

Rank Metric StateRank Metric State

RankIowa 402,402 17 -9.8% 14 $736.5 22 $1.83 46

Illinois 1,026,925 5 1.0% 7 $2,128.4 6 $2.07 38

Minnesota 267,695 27 -28.4% 27 $566.5 30 $2.12 33

Missouri 806,549 7 17.1% 3 $1,553.0 12 $1.93 43

Nebraska 292,956 25 41.6% 1 $423.1 31 $1.44 49

SouthDakota 34,246 40 -32.3% 29 $71.2 42 $2.08 35

Wisconsin 454,554 15 -8.9% 13 $1,108.9 14 $2.44 28

U.S.Totals 18,038,771 -20.1% $45,516.6 $2.52

NaturalGasDemandProfile

TableA2.NaturalGasConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState



2000-2013





RankIowa 306,460 25 50.9% 12 $2,045.7 23 $6.32 33

Illinois 1,063,690 7 2.3% 35 $7,260.8 5 $7.20 18

Minnesota 478,810 16 30.3% 24 $2,426.4 20 $6.26 35

Missouri 281,486 30 -2.3% 41 $1,811.0 28 $8.80 8

Nebraska 179,610 38 41.1% 20 $994.6 36 $5.78 43

SouthDakota 84,527 44 121.8% 2 $462.0 46 $6.04 40

Wisconsin 450,169 18 13.2% 30 $2,997.3 17 $6.72 26

U.S.Totals 26,801,763 12.5% $151,704.5 $6.44

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PetroleumDemandProfile

TableA3.PetroleumConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState



2000-2013





RankIowa 427,080 29 5.5% 10 $11,314.3 28 $26.49 37

Illinois 1,234,444 6 -4.1% 20 $30,305.9 6 $27.05 26

Minnesota 608,922 18 -10.2% 32 $15,509.3 19 $27.30 23

Missouri 632,148 17 -6.8% 25 $16,735.4 17 $26.47 39

Nebraska 238,966 37 6.3% 8 $6,601.2 35 $27.62 17

SouthDakota 117,362 47 -0.6% 15 $3,167.8 47 $26.99 28

Wisconsin 525,625 23 -13.0% 38 $14,433.9 21 $27.68 15

U.S.Totals 35,820,042 -6.7% $878,115.6 $26.11

MotorGasolineDemandProfile

TableA4.GasolineConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState



2000-2013





RankIowa 198,722 28 3.7% 19 $5,580.8 28 $28.08 33

Illinois 559,961 8 -10.5% 48 $16,001.8 7 $28.58 29

Minnesota 304,634 22 -4.4% 39 $8,798.4 20 $28.88 25

Missouri 368,645 14 -4.3% 38 $10,047.2 15 $27.25 47

Nebraska 103,043 37 -3.4% 37 $2,973.3 37 $28.85 26

SouthDakota 53,510 45 -0.4% 29 $1,555.0 45 $29.06 22

Wisconsin 295,970 23 -2.5% 33 $8,731.2 21 $29.50 14

U.S.Totals 16,338,562 1.1% $467,337.6 $28.60

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FuelOilDemandProfile

TableA5.FuelOilConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState



2000-2013





RankIowa 138,913 24 23.9% 10 $3,759.6 25 $27.06 40

Illinois 267,542 7 7.1% 20 $7,400.9 7 $27.67 19

Minnesota 157,153 20 8.7% 18 $4,368.3 20 $27.80 15

Missouri 172,049 14 2.6% 24 $4,660.4 14 $27.09 39

Nebraska 110,112 32 26.7% 7 $3,001.0 32 $27.25 35

SouthDakota 45,907 45 30.7% 5 $1,238.4 45 $26.98 41

Wisconsin 139,116 23 -18.4% 42 $3,893.2 23 $27.99 8

U.S.Totals 8,066,422 1.8% $221,442.4 $27.46

PropaneDemandProfile

TableA6.LPG(Propane)Consumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState



2000-2013





RankIowa 63,297 5 -11.2% 29 $1,398.4 7 $22.09 47

Illinois 84,791 3 15.8% 16 $1,899.3 3 $22.47 44

Minnesota 36,575 9 -0.4% 24 $853.4 11 $23.40 37

Missouri 30,742 13 -23.9% 38 $706.4 15 $22.98 41

Nebraska 12,338 27 -12.9% 31 $288.9 29 $23.42 36

SouthDakota 7,523 40 -23.1% 36 $175.4 41 $23.32 38

Wisconsin 36,388 10 -12.7% 30 $814.6 12 $22.39 45

U.S.Totals 3,166,737 7.5% $55,690.0 $17.61

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NuclearEnergyDemandProfile

TableA7.NuclearEnergyConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState



2000-2013





RankIowa 55,597 29 19.7% 5 $46.5 29 $0.84 7

Illinois 1014,926 1 8.8% 8 $820.8 1 $0.81 14

Minnesota 111,885 24 -17.2% 26 $108.5 21 $0.97 2

Missouri 87,428 26 -16.1% 25 $78.7 24 $0.90 5

Nebraska 71,736 28 -20.3% 28 $60.0 27 $0.84 7

SouthDakota 0 32 N/A $0.0 32 $0.00 32

Wisconsin 121,994 21 1.6% 21 $93.5 22 $0.77 19

U.S.Totals 8,244,433 4.9% $6,522.6 $0.79

Note:19statesandtheDistrictofColumbiahavenodirectproduction/consumptionofnuclearpower.Theseregionsareallrankedat32.ConsumptionmetricsbasedonNuclearenergyconsumedforelectricitygeneration,total

BiomassDemandProfile

TableA8.BiomassConsumption,Expenditures,andPricebyBenchmarkState


ConsumptionChange,

2000-2013

Expenditures*($Millions)

Price*($perMillionBtu)



RankIowa 227,581 4 244.1% 8 $35.7 37 $6.08 17

Illinois 136,667 11 43.0% 32 $92.5 29 $6.04 18

Minnesota 148,410 9 70.1% 21 $170.7 18 $3.51 35

Missouri 71,291 25 319.7% 6 $135.6 23 $11.36 10

Nebraska 107,101 21 281.9% 7 $15.2 43 $7.53 12

SouthDakota 61,432 28 1209.0% 1 $8.7 49 $11.67 9

Wisconsin 133,836 12 40.7% 33 $227.9 16 $4.18 31

U.S.Totals 4,464,695 48.4% $7,834.0 $3.79

Note:*Thesebiomassfiguresrepresentthe“values”ofallbiomassincludingtheconsumptionofbiomassthatisultimatelyconvertedtootherenergyproductsincludingethanol.

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Forthefollowing,renewableenergy-specifictablesexpenditureandpriceinformationisunavailablefromtheSEDSasthesesourcesdonothave“fuel-related”expendituresandallfeedintotheoverallelectricitypool(grid)fromapriceconsideration,atthislevelofdataavailability.Furthereffortstoexamine“greenpowerpricing”andotherRPS-relatedimpactsison-going.

RenewableEnergyDemandProfile

TableA9.TotalRenewableEnergyConsumptionbyBenchmarkState



2000-2013


RankIowa 384,690 6 376.5% 3

Illinois 234,642 10 140.2% 15

Minnesota 233,732 11 123.3% 16

Missouri 94,515 33 305.7% 5

Nebraska 136,286 25 212.0% 12

SouthDakota 127,714 27 101.3% 18

Wisconsin 168,986 17 46.0% 31

U.S.Totals 9,147,633 49.8%

WindEnergyDemandProfile

TableA10.Wind(RenewableEnergy)ConsumptionbyBenchmarkState


ConsumptionChange,

2000-2013


RankIowa 148,538 2 143,501 2

Illinois 91,834 5 91,834 4

Minnesota 78,797 7 71,406 7

Missouri 11,133 24 11,133 24

Nebraska 17,191 20 17,191 20

SouthDakota 25,643 17 25,643 17

Wisconsin 14,864 22 14,836 22

U.S.Totals 1,601,359 1,544,302

• Iowawasoneofonly11statesregisteringanywindenergyconsumptionin2000.In2013,39statesregisteredwindenergyconsumption.

• Iowaaccountsfor9.3%ofU.S.windconsumptionin2013andaccountsfor9.3%oftheincreaseinU.S.consumptionfrom2000to2013.

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EthanolDemandProfile

A11.Ethanol(RenewableEnergy)ConsumptionbyBenchmarkState


ConsumptionChange,

2000-2013


RankIowa 12,926 28 5,236 37

Illinois 39,470 7 15,514 23

Minnesota 25,491 15 6,105 34

Missouri 21,436 19 19,021 18

Nebraska 5,586 40 2,837 46

SouthDakota 3,731 43 1,806 49

Wisconsin 20,706 21 17,998 20

U.S.Totals 1,091,826 955,293

• Iowawasoneof34stateswithethanolconsumptionin2000.By2013,all50statesandtheDistrictofColumbiahadsomelevelofethanolconsumption.

• Iowaaccountsforonly1.2%ofU.S.ethanolconsumptionin2013and0.5%ofthechangeintotalethanolconsumptionfrom2000to2013.

• OverallU.S.ethanolconsumptionincreasedby700%from2000to2013.

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