Where the Jobs Are

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Adapted from: National Career Development Association Global Conference 2007 presentation: 2004-14 Employment Outlook from the Bureau of

Labor Statistics, Terry Schau, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Used with permission.

Where the Jobs Are

2

The BLS Projections Process

10 year projections; updated every two years

Projections are based on a long-term view of the economy

States underlying assumptions clearly and presents model-based findings

Assumes a long-run full-employment economy

3

Employment Outlook: 2004-14

Industry output and employment

• Occupational employment

4

Service-providing industries continueto lead employment growth

Millions of nonagriculture wage-and-salary jobs

23 22 22

92

110

129

1994 2004 2014, 1994 2004 2014,

Goods producing

Service providing

projected projected

5

Goods-producing and service-providing industries by share of total employment and output, 2004

Percent

15.0

27.3

75.866.7

Goods producing Service providing

Nonagriculture wage and salaryemployment

Output

6172241360486

606766807

9831,0051,034

1,1471,305

1,5812,058

2,5564,387

Educational services, privateMiningUtilities

Other servicesTransportation and warehousing

Leisure and hospitalityFederal Government

Wholesale tradeInformation

ConstructionRetail trade

Health care and social assistance

Professional and business servicesFinancial activities

Manufacturing

Two industry sectors—manufacturing and financial activities—accounted for more than one third of total output in 2004

Billions of dollars

Service providingGoods producing

State and local government

7523570

2,7282,7663,183

4,2505,655

6,2106,965

8,05212,479

14,18714,330

15,03516,414

18,891

MiningUtilities

Federal GovernmentEducational services, private

InformationTransportation & warehousing

Wholesale tradeOther services

ConstructionFinancial activities

Leisure and hospitalityHealth care and social assistance

ManufacturingRetail trade

Professional and business servicesState and local government

Nearly 27 percent of all workers held jobs in State and local government and in professional and business services in 2004

Thousands of nonfarm wage-and-salary jobs, 2004


8

Wage and salary employment growth by industry sector, projected 2004-14 Employment change in thousands

State and local government

Professional and business servicesHealth care and social assistance

Utilities

Manufacturing

InformationWholesale trade

Other servicesConstruction

Financial activitiesEducational services, private

Retail trade

Transportation and warehousing

Leisure and hospitality

Mining-777-46-8

364476506

734792849898

1,6492,1282,215

4,2954,566


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Employment growth can be viewed in two ways

Percent change Numerical change

State and local government educational servicesHome health care services

Projected, 2004-14

12

701,225,000

537,000

10

4747

495050

5561

6870

The 10 detailed industries with the fastest-growing wage and salary employment, projected 2004-14

Percent change

Educational support services, privateHome health care services

Software publishers

Community care facilities for the elderly

Outpatient care centers, except mental health and substance abuseResidential mental health and substance abuse facilitiesOffices of all other health practitioners

Residential mental retardation facilitiesFacilities support services

Management, scientific, and technical consulting services

79

11

The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, projected 2004-14

Employment change, in thousands

471472

537592

648701

760764

783Employment services

Local government educational services

Local government, excluding education and hospitals

Full-service restaurants

General medical and surgical hospitals, private

Limited-service eating places

Home health care services

Colleges, universities, and professional schools, private

Management, scientific, & technical consulting services

Offices of physicians

1,580

12

The industries with the most projected job lossesEmployment change in thousands, projected 2004-14

-37

-38

-40

-46

-48

-53

-56

-65

-140

-168Wired telecommunications carriers

Cut and sew apparel manufacturing

Basic chemical manufacturing

Rubber product manufacturing

Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing

Crop production, primary job

Semiconductor & other electronic component mfg

Foundries

Fabric mills

Printing and related support activities

13

Employment Outlook: 2004-14

• Industry output and employment

Occupational employment

14

Wage and salary jobs will account for most of the employment growth

Millions of jobs

116.5

12.7

133.5

12.1

152.1

12.4

1994 2004 2014,

Wage and salary Self-employed and unpaid family workers

129.2145.6

164.5

projected

15

Employment in 8 of 10 major occu-pational groups are projected to increasePercent change, projected 2004-14

-1

-.76

10

11

1112

14

1921

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Production

Office and administrative support

Sales and related

Transportation and material moving

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Construction and extraction

Management, business, and financial

Service

Professional and related

16

Professional workers account for more than 3 out of 10 new jobs

Employment change in thousands, projected 2004-14

-79-13

657

931

1,116

1,3801,476

2,155

5,2576,046

Production

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Construction and extraction

Transportation and material moving

Office and administrative support

Sales and related

Management, business, and financial

Service

Professional and related

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7 of the 10 fastest growing detailed occupations are health related, 3 are computer related

Percent change, projected 2004-14

41

43

43

43

44

48

50

52

55Home health aides

Network systems and data communications analysts

Physician assistants

Computer software engineers, applications

Physical therapist assistants

Dental hygienists

Computer software engineers, systems software

Dental assistants

Personal and home care aides

56

Medical assistants

18

The 10 occupations projected to add the most new jobsEmployment change in thousands, projected 2004-14

287308

325350

367

376440

471703

736

Waiters and waitressesFood preparation/serving workers

Retail salespersons Registered nursesCustomer service representativesJanitors and cleaners

Home health aidesNursing aidesGeneral & operations mgrs.Personal & home care aides

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Occupational employment declines often stem from technological change

Numerical change in thousands, projected 2004-14

-42-43

-48-49

-59-63

-93-93 Sewing machine

operators

Stock clerks and order fillers

Farmers and ranchers

File clerks

Order clerksMail clerks and mail machine operators, except postal serviceComputer operatorsSecretaries except legal, medical, and executiveTelemarketersCutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic

-115 -155

20

Top 10 highest earning, high-growth occupations

88,660

92,570

94,400

94,930

97,630

102,030

123,060

129,250

140,350

$145,600

Natural science managers

Computer and information systems managers

Podiatrists

Lawyers

Engineering managers

Air traffic controllers

Dentists, general

Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers

Chief executives

Physicians and surgeons

2004 earningsPercent

employment growth

24

15

17

14

14

13

15

16

26

14

21

High-wage, high-growth occupations that are projected to add at least 100,000 new jobs

53,460

58,190

60,600

63,450

66,460

74,980

77,420

79,740

94,930

$145,600

Business operations specialists, all other

Network and computer systems administrators

Network systems and data communications analysts

Management analysts

Computer systems analysts


General and operations managers


Lawyers

Physicians and surgeons

Thousands of jobs, projected 2004-14 New jobs

136

110

146

308

222

153

122

126

107

242

22

High-wage, high-growth occupations with the largest projected job growth

153

186

202222

242264265308

524703

Computer systems analysts

Carpenters

Maintenance and repair workers, general


Business operation specialists, all other

Accountants and auditors

Elementary school teachers

General and operations managers

Postsecondary teachers

Registered nurses

Employment in thousands, projected 2004-14 2004 median

earnings

$52,330

51,800

77,42043,16050,77053,46074,980

30,710

34,90066,460

23

High-wage, high-growth occupations with the fastest projected job growth

36

3738

3843

4344

4850

55

Forensic science technicians

Physical therapists

Database administrators

Computer systems administrators


Dental hygienists

Physical therapist assistants


Physician assistants

Data communications analysts

Percent growth, projected 2004-14 2004 median

earnings

$60,600

69,410

74,980

37,890

58,350

79,740

58,190

60,650

60,180

44,010

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Education and Training Pay

NOTE: Unemployment and earnings for workers 25 and older, by educational attainment; earnings for full-time wage and salary workers.

Unemployment rate in 2005 Median weekly earnings in 2005

392

545

605

677

904

1,125

1,365

$1,420

2.1

2.6

3.3

4.2

4.7

7.6

1.1

1.6

Master’s degree

Bachelor’s degree

Associate degree

Some college, no degree

High school graduate

Some high school, no diploma

Professional degree

Doctoral degree

25

Top 10 occupations generally requiring short-term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings

2004 median annual earnings

24,990

25,050

26,150

27,450

28,370

28,430

Riggers

Traffic technicians

Parking enforcement workers

Bill and account collectors

Court, municipal, and license clerks

Tree trimmers and pruners

Healthcare support workers, all other

Human resource assistants, except payroll and timekeeping

Transportation workers, all other

Costume attendants

$35,330

33,670

32,170

31,750

26

Top 10 occupations generally requiring moderate-term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings


32,990

33,320

33,870

37,610

40,300

41,120

46,340

47,000

49,290

Sales representatives, technical and scientific products

Subway and streetcar operators

Railroad conductors and yardmasters

All other communication equipment workers

Advertising sales agents

Camera operators, television and video

Bailiffs

Audio-visual collections specialists

Hazardous materials removal workers

Sales representatives, services, all other

$58,580

27

Top 10 occupations generally requiring long-term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings


40,850

41,29042,430

43,440

44,220

45,210

45,330

48,310

58,710$102,030Air traffic controllers

Elevator installers and repairers

Insurance appraisers, auto damage

Police and sheriff’s patrol officers

Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators

Flight attendants

Structural iron and steel workers

Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters

Media and communications, all other

Athletes and sports competitors

28

Top 10 occupations generally requiring an associate degree that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings


43,140

43,35044,010

52,33052,490

56,450

57,700

58,350

59,200

$59,480Computer specialists, all other

Nuclear technicians

Radiation therapists

Nuclear medicine technologists

Diagnostics medical sonographers

Registered nurses

Forensic science technicians

Radiologic technologists/technicians

Respiratory therapists

Dental hygienists

29

Top 10 occupations generally requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings


88,410

88,660

92,57094,400

94,930

97,630

123,060

129,250

140,350

$145,600Physicians and surgeons

Chief executives

Dentists, general

Lawyers

Podiatrists

Computer/information system mgrs.

Natural sciences managers

Optometrists

Engineering managers

Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers

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Where to go for more information on the BLS 2004-14 projections Employment Projections Internet site:

www.bls.gov/emp Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2006-07 Edition:

www.bls.gov/oco Career Guide to Industries, 2006-07 Edition:

www.bls.gov/cg Occupational Projections & Training Data, 2006-07

Edition: www.bls.gov/emp/optd/home.htm “Charting the Projections: 2004-14” in the

Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2005-06 issue:www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm

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