Can the market forecast the weather better than meteorologists?
Where should we add some for better forecast?
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Transcript of Where should we add some for better forecast?
MOTEKI QoosakuTropical Climate Variability Research ProgramJapan Marine-Earth Science and Technology
should we add observationsin the Tropics?
WhereIntensive observation projects
conducted by JAMSTEC
Operational Upper-air Sounding
Weather Station Weather RadarRadio Sonde
t
z
t
z
ty x
1-D 2-D 3-D
should we add observationsin the Tropics?
WhereIntensive observation projects
conducted by JAMSTEC
Radar
Vessel
CINDY Oct.-Dec. 2011
do you get?
How much
Intensive observation projects
conducted by JAMSTEC
improvement
Improvement by CINDY
improvedegrade%
improvement rate (%) =Error without Obs. - Error with Obs.
Error without Obs.
observation
forecast
next analysis
Spread
Error
current analysis
≒
Objective evaluation of the ”value” of
Additional observations
Analysis error of U during MISMO2006
● operational sounding
small error large error(m/s)
● MISMO sounding● operational sounding
(m/s)
small error large error
Analysis error of U during MISMO2006
ALERAavailable from
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/esc/research/oreda/products/
Improvement by CINDY
improvedegrade%
improvement rate (%) =Error without Obs. - Error with Obs.
Error without Obs.
Message
Continuous contribution needs
continuous connection
continuous connectionon the Youtube
the Youtube leads details
the video like a music
JAMSTEC original productswill surely contribute for
better forecast in the Tropics