Polling in Context: The role of polling in policy research

Charlie Cadywould@CCadywould

• Why we do polling• How we’ve used polling in our research• The limits of polling• Why we do qual too• Social media analysis• How polling fits in

Structure

Why do we do polling?

• Think tankers don’t just spend all day thinking• Arguing from first principles isn’t enough

• Good policies depend on how the public will react to them• The art of the possible – what is electorally viable/publicly acceptable?

How do we use polling?

• Commission on Apprenticeships (2015)• Poll of 1,000 parents of 15-16 year olds• 92% of parents think apprenticeships are a good option for young

people• 32% think an apprenticeship is the best option for their child• Implications for policy: esteem of the apprenticeship route needs to be

improved

How do we use polling?

• Generation Strains (2013)• Inquiry into attitudes on welfare• Finds large amounts of inter-generational solidarity• Declining trust in the welfare state

How do we use polling?• Tune In, Turn Out (2014)

• Poll of 1,000 18-24 year olds• Focus groups• Key issues - polling• Understanding nuances of disillusionment – focus groups

Pros of polling

• Representative• Demographic• Large samples• Avoids self-selection bias (somewhat)

• Cross-breaks• Data viz• (Headlines)

The limits of polling

• Causation• Survey question selection• Hard-to-reach groups• Research question selection

• Do we ignore problems we cant quantify?• Limited ability to follow up

Why we do qual too

• Hard-to-reach groups• Open questions, in-depth responses• Immediate follow-up – sniff out the story• Context

• Tone• Body language

• Discussion and deliberation reveals nuances• People can change their minds – reveals the arguments that resonate

Social media analysis

• Centre for the Analysis of Social Media• Collaboration between Demos and the University of Sussex

Not strictly relevant

Twitter analysis: 1st election debate

Social media analysis: Pros

• Observed behaviour• Huge samples• Hard-to-reach groups• Certain demographic info• Real-time reaction to events• Useful beyond research

• Intelligence• Consultation tool

Social media analysis: Cons

• Ethical questions• Privacy?

• Unrepresentative• Online disinhibition effect• Facebook vs Twitter

Demographic profile of Twitter users

Social media analysis: How does it differ to polling?

• Generic views vs event specific statements• Solicited statements vs public statements• Passive vs active statements (helping an interviewer with

research vs trying to effect change)• Online vs offline culture – different norms

Conclusion: how polling fits into our work

• A snapshot of public opinion as it is• Broad overview of society, with breakdowns• Publicity• Use qualitative research for:

• More depth• Understanding why• Sniffing out the story• How people can change their minds