Where is the Economy Today and Where the #%^* Is It Going?
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Transcript of Where is the Economy Today and Where the #%^* Is It Going?
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Where is the Economy Today and Where the
#%^* Is It Going?
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Where Are We?Where Are We?
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Where Are We?Where Are We?
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Where Are We?Where Are We?
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Where Are We?Where Are We?
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Where Are We?Where Are We?
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Where Are We?Where Are We?
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Where Are We?Where Are We?
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Where Are We?Where Are We?
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Earnings ExpectationsEarnings Expectations
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Earnings ExpectationsEarnings Expectations
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10-Year Treasury Rates10-Year Treasury Rates
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Low Rates Fuel BuybacksLow Rates Fuel Buybacks
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Low Rates Fuel BuybacksLow Rates Fuel Buybacks
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Outside the U.S.Outside the U.S.
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Outside the U.S.Outside the U.S.
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Outside the U.S.Outside the U.S.
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Outside the U.S.Outside the U.S.
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Outside the U.S.Outside the U.S.
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Global ViewGlobal View
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HmmmmmmmHmmmmmmm
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HmmmmmmmHmmmmmmm
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What’s Ahead?What’s Ahead?
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What’s Ahead?What’s Ahead?
VelocityVelocityVelocityVelocityVectorVectorVectorVector
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Why Am I Here?Why Am I Here?
‣ Editor of Growth & Dividend Report, PowerTrader and PowerOptions Trader
‣ Portfolio Manager, Thematic Growth Portfolio
‣ Assistant Professor, NJCU Business School
‣ Contributor at Forbes.com, Real Money Pro and FoxBusiness.com
‣ Weekly guest at TheStreet TV
‣ Frequent on-air guest
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Why Am I Here?Why Am I Here?
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How’d we doHow’d we do
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‣ Growth & Dividend Report, PowerTrader and PowerOptions Trader
‣ ~100 double digit winners
‣ 70 triple digit winners
‣ Since May 2012
‣ PowerOptions Trader: 36%; 42 day holding
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How?How?• Portfolio manager of the Thematic Growth Portfolio at Fabian
Wealth Management – a thematically driven long only managed portfolio
• Senior Vice President, Equity Research at Friedman Billings Ramsey‣ Honorable mentions in Institutional Investor annual research analyst
rankings ‣ Five-star analyst by Zacks Investment Services ‣ Four-star analyst ranked by Star Mine
• Analyst at Donaldson Lufkin Jenrette and Salomon Brothers
• Quoted extensively in The Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, The Street, USA Today and other publications; Appeared on Fox Business, CNBC, CNBC Europe, CNNfn, Bloomberg TV
• MBA Finance – Fordham UniversityBS Mathematics; BA Economics – Fairfield University
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How?How?
A PowerTrend is a market shift that shapes and impacts consumer behavior, forcing companies to make fundamental changes to their businesses to succeed
A PowerTrend is a market shift that shapes and impacts consumer behavior, forcing companies to make fundamental changes to their businesses to succeed
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What is a PowerTrend?What is a PowerTrend?• Economics
Where are we in the economic cycle;?
What is the vector?
Expansion, contraction or stagnation?
Input prices, commodities, inflation
• Demographics
Population dynamics
Jobs and incomes
• Psychographics of consumers and enterprises
Conserving or splurging?
Spending and hiring or cutting and slashing?
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What is a PowerTrend?What is a PowerTrend?• Politics and regulatory mandates
Policy, spending and debt
Compliance – emissions, environment, Medicare
• Cyclical vs. Structural shift
Mobile, the Cloud, Social Media, etc.
PCs to smartphones and tablets
Broadband’s implications/opportunities
• Industry evolution and disruptive technologies
Touch, voice, new materials, new processes, etc.
• U.S. and non-U.S.
Global repercussions
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Many FactorsMany Factors
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•Numerous Ecosystem Influencers
Leading Leading Edge Edge
ComponentsComponents
Regulatory Regulatory and and
Standards Standards BodiesBodies
Enterprise & Enterprise & Government Government
SpendingSpending
Global Global VendorsVendors
Raw Material Raw Material and and
Commodity Commodity PricesPrices
Real Real Disposable Disposable
IncomeIncome
Human Human Behavior Behavior
SoftwareSoftware & UI& UI
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Data, Data and More DataData, Data and More DataTons of Information for
Context & PerspectiveNews releases, SEC Filings,
Annual ReportsNewspapers, magazinesStudies, white papers and pollsGovernment statistics – U.S.
and otherThird party dataGartner, OECD, World Bank,
UN, and othersManagement
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InformationInformation
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How Do You… How Do You…
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Think DifferentThink Different
Wall Street
Industry
Peer Group
Company
Recommendation
PowerTrend
Catalyst
Affected Companies
Risk vs. Reward
Action
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How’d we doHow’d we do
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‣ Growth & Dividend Report, PowerTrader and PowerOptions Trader
‣ ~100 double digit winners
‣ 70 triple digit winners
‣ Since May 2012
‣ PowerOptions Trader: 36%; 42 day holding
![Page 39: Where is the Economy Today and Where the #%^* Is It Going?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062304/56649e245503460f94b133f5/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
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Where are we now?Where are we now?
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What’s Ahead?What’s Ahead?
• Manufacturing
• Housing
• Consumer
• Inflation and Costs
• Non-U.S.
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When Will the Fed Raise Rates?When Will the Fed Raise Rates?
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Still Many Tailwinds and Pain PointsStill Many Tailwinds and Pain Points
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PowerTrendsPowerTrends
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PicksPicks
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‣ Qualcomm (QCOM)
‣ Qualcomm (QCOM)
‣ American Railcar (ARII)
‣ Utilities SPDR (XLU)
‣ March $47 XLU calls
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Chris Versace • www.ChrisVersace.com
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Salem Eagle BoothSalem Eagle Booth
Salem Eagle Booth #107
Growth & Dividend Report
$249/$99/$77*
PowerOption Trader
$99 1Q/ $1250 yr 47