Where is Scheduling Headed?
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Where is Scheduling Headed? From Scheduling to True Planning Dr. Dan Patterson, PMP CEO Basis
Transcript of Where is Scheduling Headed?
Where is Scheduling Headed?
From Scheduling to True Planning
Dr. Dan Patterson, PMPCEO Basis
Dr. Dan PattersonTrack Record
• 25 years thought leadership• Inventor of:
• Acumen Fuse, Risk & 360• Schedule Index™• 5 Stage Risk Workshop
• 2012 Innovation of the year• Leading risk workshop facilitator
Career• 2002: Pertmaster, now Oracle Primavera
• 2008: Acumen, now Deltek• 2013: PMFocus• 2016: BASIS
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Dr. Dan PattersonTrack Record
• 25 years thought leadership• Inventor of:
• Acumen Fuse, Risk & 360• Schedule Index™• 5 Stage Risk Workshop
• 2012 Innovation of the year• Leading risk workshop facilitator
Career• 2002: Pertmaster, now Oracle Primavera
• 2008: Acumen, now Deltek• 2013: PMFocus• 2016: BASIS
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BG Marathon Oil Anadarko Petrobras Shaw Benham Sonatrach Enbridge Kosmos
Fluor DHS NASA Noble Energy SNC Lavalin Dow Chemical Conoco BHP Billiton Oceaneering
Repsol Bechtel Inpex Chevron Talisman BP Technip MEG Alliance
RISK WORKSHOP AND SOFTWARE CUSTOMERS
Projects are simple: Plan the work.Work the plan.
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Right?
Planning the work.Objective: Establish a timeline for the project
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ScopeRequirements
DeliverablesWBS
Work/ActivitiesDuration and sequence
THE TRUTH IS….
Working the plan.
Objective: Project completion as planned
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Only 6% of CAPEX projects finish on-time*
*Economist Intelligence Unit Survey
Where are we going wrong?Planning or Execution
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Planning vs. Execution
Many chances to get the plan right.
One chance at project execution.
Successfully working the plan starts with
realistically planning the work.8
Critical Path Method Planning
• 1956 – CPM invented• Dupont/Remington • UNIVAC-1 computer
• Today – same algorithm• 15 lines of code
• Generates dates & float• Dates are NOT inputs
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The Shortcomings of CPM
It’s not execution that is letting us down…
• Even the best CPM plans are overly optimistic
• CPM tools don’t encourage sound use of building blocks (i.e. durations, logic, float)
• CPM tools breed schedulers not planners
• Gantt chart has not evolved in 100 years
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1795 Harmonogram
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One of the earliest examples of a plan depicting the ‘work’
(conquests) using a time scale.
CPM
Evolution
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CPM Tools 1983Harmonogram 1795
Gantt Chart 1916 Acumen Fuse 2010
BASIS 2017
Yesterday Today Tomorrow
CPM “Toolscape” Today
CPM tools today help
with scheduling but do
little for true planning.
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Schedule Analysis(Acumen Fuse)
Risk Analysis(PRA / Acumen Risk)
Cost Management(EcoSys)
CPM Tomorrow
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From Scheduling to PlanningA sound plan basis:
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CPM “Toolscape” Tomorrow
Adding BASIS to the
CPM toolscape enables
true planning.
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Schedule Analysis(Acumen Fuse)
Risk Analysis(PRA / Acumen Risk)
Cost ManagementEcoSys
Introducing BASIS…Coming Q2 2017
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The VisionValidated CPM Plans based on team consensus
Knowledge Retention: Share & reuse expertize and lessons learned
Improved planning counteracts impact of brain drain
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The Reality
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Team Schedule Markup: Incorporate team expertise and obtain team consensus
Interactive Planning Assistant: Guidance and suggestions as you plan
Project lifecycle: Pre-planning > Planning > Execution
Machine Learning (AI): Continually learning and improving knowledge base
BASIS
BASIS is a knowledge-driven planning tool capturing domain expert feedback, consensus across multiple project stakeholders & validation against an organization-defined knowledge base resulting in a calibrated plan.
The knowledge base continually learns with each new project leading to more achievable project plans & ultimately more project success.
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BASIS Concepts
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Process by which team members give schedule feedback & buy-in.
• Interaction through graphical drag-drop & markup of schedule.
• Consensus obtainedthrough analytics.
Means of storing expert’s knowledge & opinion on schedule.
• Can be taught through historical/as built /templates.
• Self-learning through markup process.
The different attributes you want to gain consensus on.
• Core layers: duration, sequence, missing activities, risk/uncertainty
• Organizations can create additional layers.
Knowledge LayersContinually Learning Knowledge Base
Interactive Schedule Markup
Schedule Mark-up
• Import or create WBS or a fully-fleshed out schedule
• Invite feedback on schedule or contribution to flesh out WBS
• Team members contribute• Assign experts to specific WBS• Contribution from experts and team members drives schedule
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Activity
Scope/WBS Scope/WBS Scope/WBS
Activity
Activity
Not yet reviewed
Activity
Activity
Reviewed & Bought-‐Into
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=
Activity
Reviewed & Changes Made
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Tracking Feedback Status
The Basis The Markup
Knowledge BasePlanning Data: Provides a way to capture and reuse organizational expertize
Planning Start Point: Initially learns from previous projects or templates (e.g. IPA recommendations)
Planning Intelligence: Constantly learns and improves during the markup process
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Augmented Intelligence rather than Artificial Intelligence
Runs in background
Captures knowledge as team members mark up
Doesn’t require a ‘hard-coded’ corporate WBS or other ‘standards’
Uses AI to “match”
How Does it Work?
Artificial or Augmented• Artificial Intelligence: The ability for a computer to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence.
• Augmented Intelligence supplements human thinking rather than replacing it. • Makes our lives easier by performing tasks faster and with greater efficiency
• Still requires human intelligence, reasoning, and expertise
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“What a computer is to me is it’s the most remarkable tool that we’ve ever come up with, and it’s the
equivalent of a bicycle for our minds.”
- Steve Jobs
Knowledge LayersBASIS Building Blocks• Each activity attribute is defined as a Knowledge Layer
• Add layers at any time to capture additional project attributes (e.g. cost)
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ConclusionBASIS + CPM + Fuse = True Planning
• Fix Planning Not Execution
• We have the luxury of repeating / testing during planning
• We only get one shot at getting it right in execution
• Planning Tools
• Need to better enable experts to drive schedule input
• Make planners not schedulers
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Thank [email protected]
For more information download “From Scheduling to True Planning Part I” at www.basispm.com.
