Where Can I Take You for a trip
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Transcript of Where Can I Take You for a trip
STKI Company Confidential for STKI clients only
6/14/2008
@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel +972 (0) 9 790 7000 1
Inviting you to my office
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and to my library.........
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This presentation is dangerous....It will make people think
• Innovation
• Important books/authors
• Cloud computing
• Neo nomads• Neo‐nomads
• METAweb
• Virtual Worlds
change is the process by which the future invades
our lives
Change
Resilience
4
our lives
Alvin TofflerCreativity
Innovation
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change is the process by which the future invades
our lives
5
our lives
Alvin Toffler
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Resilience: Not only the ability to recover from a change or shock.
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Resilience: Not only the capacity of people to cope with change, stress or catastrophe. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei
Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
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RESILIENCE: The rate at which any system returns to a single steady state following a system perturbation.
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RESILIENCE: The rate at which any system returns to a single steady state following a system perturbation.
IT RESILIANCE:The ability to provide an acceptable level of service in the face of faults and challenges to normal operation.
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In the genes ?
Stress:• Brain releases serotonin• Kills off neurons if not metabolized
MAOA gene (with 5HTT) handles better stress:• Produces molecules better at synthesizing serotonin
Your Text hereYour Text here
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Produces molecules better at synthesizing serotonin
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The future is really only aninnovation problem
How do we find the future we prefer?
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Innovation is the ability to move from the existing to the preferred
Innovation versus Creativity
Desired Future
Vision
Innovationis the engine that drives
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PresentDefault Future
that drives transformation..
INNOVATION
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Israel: Innovation Factory 1992‐20??
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Global Innovation Index
Dr. Soumitra DuttaINSEAD Professor
GLOBAL INNOVATION
INDEX
6 SWITZERLAND 7 SINGAPORE 8 CANADA 9 NETHERLANDS 10 HONG KONG 11 DENMARK
18 ISRAEL*19 SOUTH KOREA 20 ICELAND 30 KUWAIT
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which places:1 US 2 GERMANY 3 UK 4 JAPAN 5 FRANCE
11 DENMARK 12 SWEDEN 13 FINLAND 1 4 U A E 15 BELGIUM 16 LUXEMBOURG 17 AUSTRALIA
* Because of HUMAN CAPITAL
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IMD WORLD COMPETITIVENESS YEARBOOK 2007 (2006)
(1) USA 1(3) SINGAPORE 2(2) HONG KONG 3(9) LUXEMBOURG 4(5) DENMARK 5(8) SWITZERLAND 6(4) ICELAND 7(15) NETHERLANDS 8
(10) FINLAND 17(17) TAIWAN 18(21) NEW ZEALAND 19(20) UNITED KINGDOM 20
(24) ISRAEL 21*(19) ESTONIA 22(22) MALAYSIA 23
(29) THAILAND 33(33) SLOVAK REPUBLIC 34(35) HUNGARY 35(36) GREECE 36(40) JORDAN 37
Professor
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(15) NETHERLANDS 8(14) SWEDEN 9(7) CANADA 10(13) AUSTRIA 11(6) AUSTRALIA 12(12) NORWAY 13(11) IRELAND 14(18) CHINA MAINLAND 15(25) GERMANY 16
(16) JAPAN 24(26) BELGIUM 25(23) CHILE 26(27) INDIA 27(30) FRANCE 28(32) KOREA 29(31) SPAIN 30
LITHUANIA 31(28) CZECH REPUBLIC 32
Professor Stéphane GarelliIMD Business School* Because of HUMAN CAPITAL
This is what I call innovation
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Innovation IS strategy: from BUILD to CREATE
Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean StrategyCompete in existing market space. Create uncontested market space.
Beat the competition. Make the competition irrelevant.
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Exploit existing demand. Create and capture new demand.
Make the value-cost trade-off. Break the value-cost trade-off.
Align the whole system of a firm’s activities with its strategic choice of differentiation or low cost.
Align the whole system of a firm’s activities in pursuit of differentiation and low cost.
The New Economic Age
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Innovation IS strategy: from BUILD to CREATE
Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean StrategyCompete in existing market space. Create uncontested market space.
Beat the competition. Make the competition irrelevant.
19
Exploit existing demand. Create and capture new demand.
Make the value-cost trade-off. Break the value-cost trade-off.
Align the whole system of a firm’s activities with its strategic choice of differentiation or low cost.
Align the whole system of a firm’s activities in pursuit of differentiation and low cost.
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Innovation: water drum that is easy to pull
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Some background
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Books of the 1980‐90s
-” No institution can possibly survive if it
needs geniuses or supermen to manage it.
It must be organized in such a way as to be Your Text hereYour Text here
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It must be organized in such a way as to be
able to get along under a leadership
composed of average human beings”-
Books of the 1980‐90s
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BOOK OF THE 1990’s• Introduced the business world to rethinking operations.
• Demonstrated how process redesign can yield breakthroughs in performancebreakthroughs in performance
• Put the word "reengineering" into the English language.
Plus 10,000 rebuttalsAnd 20+ books
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BOOK OF THE 1990’sBOOK OF 2003
copied: “The Myth of Real Time Information”, HBR 1966
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Plus 2000+ rebuttalsAnd 5 books
BOOK OF 2003copied: “The Myth of Real Time Information”, HBR 1966
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Book of 2005• Thomas Friedman
– 3 billion people (consumers & producers) entered the world economies
• Eastern Europe (ie: Rumania)
• Asia (ie: China, India)
– Now we have a “new” economy:• Interconnected (fiber everywhere)
• Standardized (Open Source)
• Supply Chains Management
• Out‐sourcing, In‐sourcing, Off‐shoring
• Info sourcingAll Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
Book of 2005
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My own “favorite”
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What now ???
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Three Laws of Computing:growth rate of network & computing speed
• Moore’s Law. – Transistors on a single
chip doubles ~ every 18–24 months.
• Gilder’s Law
1,000,000,000,000100,000,000,000
Moore/Transistors
10,000,000,0001,000,000,000
100,000,00010,000,0001,000,000
• Gilder s Law. – Aggregate bandwidth triples
~ every year.
• Metcalfe’s Law. – The value of a network may
grow exponentially with the number of participants.
1970
Gilder/Bandwidth
Metcalf/NetworkNodes
100,00010,0001,000
100101
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20102,300 6,000 29,000 275,000 1.2 mil 5.5 mil 42 mil 252 mil 1.344 bil
50 50 56 1,544 45,000 145,000 10 mil 2.43 bil 200.49 bil
4 111 200 10,000 300,000 1 mil 140 mil 3.5 bil 300 bil
Source: Cambridge Energy Resource AssociatesAll Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
Disruptive technologies• Introduction of the IBM Mainframe ( 1960’s)
• Introduction of the Apple II (1978), IBM PC (1981), TCP/IP (1980’s), C/S Architectures (1980’s), SUN workstations (1980’s), Internet (1990’s)
• Introduction of XML‐based Composite Applications (2006), Service Oriented Architectures (2005), Virtualized Infrastructures (2004),Web 2/internet 2 (2007), Cloud Computing (2008), METAweb (2008)
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Computing and Communication Technologies Evolution: 1960‐2010!
Cloud Computing
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Control
Centralised Decentralised
Cloud Computing
35
A. IBM Introduces 'Blue Cloud' Computing CIO Today ‐ Nov 15 2007B. IBM, EU Launch RESERVOIR Research Initiative for Cloud Computing
IT News Online ‐ Feb 7 2008C. Google and Salesforce.com in cloud computing deal
Siliconrepublic.com ‐ Apr 14 2008
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What is Cloud Computing?1. data and services reside in massively scalable datacenters
2. accessed from any connected devices over theinternet.
4+ billion phones by 2010
Web 2.0-enabled PCs, TVs, etc.
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Wisdom of Clouds : "cloud computing" What's revolutionary is not cloud computing itself but how the pieces have come together to make doing business in the cloud seem increasingly like an economic inevitability
Cl d ti i i l t Your Text hereYour Text here
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Cloud computing is a simple concept: • Software and services are delivered over the Web and
through a browser. • No servers or client software to install.• Available anytime, anywhere, from any device
connecting to the Internet
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Cloud Computing Architecture
VirtualMachine
VirtualMachine
VirtualMachine
VirtualMachine
Apache
Monitoring DBMS
Management Stack
Provisioning Manager
Application Server
Monitoring Provisioning Baremetal & Xen VM
Open Source Linux with Xen
Monitoring Agent
Virtualized Infrastructure based on Open Source Linux & Xen
Data Center – 64 bit X86
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Defining the new world
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ABILITIES in an outsourced/automated world
• infrastructure makes it possible for people to work where they want, when they want, how they want
• SIX abilities needed:
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1. Design – Beauty and uniqueness
2. Story – More than mere facts
3. Symphony – Seeing the big picture
4. Empathy – Understanding others
5. Play ‐ Enjoyment
6. Meaning – Fulfillment
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OLDENBURG: The “third” place Time is primarily spent in :• First (home) place: isolated• Second (work) place: isolated• Third places : neutral public space to
connect and establish bonds.
Big Changes now:Your Text hereYour Text here
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Big Changes now:• Between 1990-2006: people went to
anonymous locations such as malls• Starting in 2007: good third place makes
admission free or cheap (the price of a cup of coffee), offers comforts, is within walking distance and draws a group of regulars.
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Neo‐nomads : new Bedouins flourishing in the coffeehouses of central Israel
• A new breed of worker, fueled by caffeine and using the tools of modern technology
• They are typically armed with laptops and cell phones paying for
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laptops and cell phones, paying for their office space and Internet access by buying coffee and muffins
• This neo‐nomads see themselves changing the nature of the workplace, if not the world at large.
Nomad Worker (2008) vs. Paris Existentialist (1950s)
Tel-Aviv geek with earphones and laptop in Arcaffe (2008)• simultaneously cramming for
exams, napping, instant-messaging, researching, reading and discussing, listening to music, browsing and e-mailing
Your Text hereYour Text here
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browsing and e mailingParis existentialist watching the world go by at the café Les DeuxMagots (1950s) • puffing a Gitane, napping and
jotting down notes about being and nothingness
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Nomad worker:Maslow’s hierarchy of needs
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Nomad worker:Maslow’s hierarchy of needs
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and the effect on IT…….
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WCMSecurity
Application Servers
EAIExpertise Location & Mgmt.
SSO
Wireless
The Peopleware EcosystemIdentity Management
Composite App.Framework
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PeoplewareWeb Services
E-Forms/Workflow
Search
Development Tools
E-Learning
Directory
Collaboration
& Mgmt.
Business Intelligence
Knowledge Mgmt.DM
BPMBAM
2007: the year of my discovery
• “SACRED ORDER OF THE EXTERNAL MIND”I could outsource mental tasks
Life is a math problem and I have a calculator
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• MAGIC OF THE INFORMATION AGENot that it allows us to know more
It really allows us to know less
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An example: my romantic attachment to my “GPS”
GPS
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• EXTERNALIZE GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION FROM MY BRAIN
• OUTSOURCE MAP READING SKILLS• ALLOW CALCULATION OF DRIVE TIME
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Pinpoints a supermarket in MEXICO ?my son is calling from there
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Pinpoints a supermarket in MEXICO ?my son is calling from there
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Pinpoints a supermarket in MEXICO ?my son is calling from there
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I have outsourced part of my life to external cognitive servants:
• No longer need a memory– Google– Yahoo– Wikipedia
• Musical taste:– ITunes
• Books and others:– Amazon
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• Personal Information– Smartphone tells me about birthdays, phones, addresses
• Social Capital– LinkedIn– Xing– Facebook
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“A Pattern Language”, Christopher Alexander
Each pattern describes a problem that occurs over and over again in our environmentThen describes the core of the solution to that problem, in such a way that
Your Text hereYour Text here
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you can use this solution a million times over
Without ever doing it the same way twice
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And with access to these tools I can answer ANY question in less then 30 minutes
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A powerful global conversation has begun
• Through the Internet, people are discovering and inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge with blinding speed.
• Networked markets are beginning to self‐organize faster than the companies that have traditionally served them.
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served them.
• As a direct result and thanks to the web, markets are becoming better informed, smarter, and more demanding of qualities missing from most business organizations.
• markets are getting smarter and getting smarter faster than most companies
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Companies wake up !!!!!!!
Customers are:• writing about products on blogs• recutting commercials on YouTube • defining companies on Wikipedia• ganging up in social networking sites
CHARLENE LIJOSH BERNOFF
Your Text hereYour Text here
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g g g p glike Facebook
MOST COMPANIES SEE IT AS A THREAT
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Social Technographics™ Josh Bernoff, co‐author of Groundswell
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METAweb phenomenon (fi-nom-uh-non)
-noun
METAweb
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noun1. a rare or significant fact or event in the
web that happened in 2007
2. something that is impressive or extraordinary that happened in 2007
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METAweb
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Innovation
METAwebpushes need for “new CIO”
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Time
METAweb
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METAweb definition:
leverage customer-self service and
algorithmic data management to
reach out to the entire web, to the Your Text hereYour Text here
65
edges and not just the center, to the
long tail and not just the head
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METAweb site has 7 basics: 1. Services, not packaged software, with cost-
effective scalability 2. Control over unique, hard-to-recreate data
sources that get richer as more people use them
3 Trusting users as co developers Your Text hereYour Text here
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3. Trusting users as co-developers 4. Harnessing collective intelligence 5. Leveraging the long tail through customer self-
service 6. Software above the level of a single device 7. Lightweight user interfaces, development
models, AND business models
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METAweb: user
Transaction Sites Multimedia Sites Game Sites Social Sites
BanksInsuranceTravel“Amazon”“e‐bay”
YOUtubeSlideshareBlogsNewspapersWIKIPEDIA
Business SimulationsTrainingSecond LifeSales
Average person:10‐15 intimate150 social500‐1500 weak links
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Websites can no longer be islands
Users want bridges elsewhere
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Google versus ???
Humanity emits the data (words, pictures, clicks, and searches are the raw material)Handful of cloud-wielding Internet giants like Google, Yahoo! or Amazon.com transform the info into insights, services, and, ultimately, revenue.
Your Text hereYour Text here
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http://labs.google.com/
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Why does it bother me ?
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Cloud Computing
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A. IBM Introduces 'Blue Cloud' Computing CIO Today ‐ Nov 15 2007B. IBM, EU Launch RESERVOIR Research Initiative for Cloud Computing
IT News Online ‐ Feb 7 2008C. Google and Salesforce.com in cloud computing deal
Siliconrepublic.com ‐ Apr 14 2008
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Google adCore Search Ads Monetization Communications Collaboration ?
Google 10 years of innovation
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1995 1998 2000 2003 20052004 2007 ?
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Internet 2 is not Web 2
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WEB 2 are WEB Technologies
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Internet2: 2.4 Gbps plumbing
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Leveraging the Web for Measureable Business Results
• Gone are the days when merely having an online presence was a business breakthrough.
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• Today's companies MUST leverage the power of the Web if they're to gain and maintain a competitive advantage.
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In 2010: all new WEB experienceSoon each website will become a 3 dimensional room that can be experienced alone or with friends
Your Text hereYour Text here
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Second Life is the biggest virtual world
• 40,000 concurrency (at any time)• 450,000 active users (last 7 days)• 1.4 m active users (last 2 months)• 10.6 m total accounts• 2 m assets created per day• 35 TB of user‐created data
Million Square Meters of Second Life Land
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• 800,000 unique items sold or traded per month
• 500 events per day• 15 m concurrent scripts• 10 Gbps peak bandwidth
Source: http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy-graphs
Total User Hours (millions)
Source: Linden Lab
Currency: Linden$
• LindeX exchange operated by Linden Lab– Buy: USD $.30 transaction fee
– Sell: 3.5% transaction fee
• Monetary policy
US$ Spent by Users (in Millions)
270 L$ =$1 USD
US $ Exchanged on Lindex (in Millions)
Economy
• Reuters• Banking and credit• Stock markets
– SL Capital Exchange (US, 20 listings)World Stock Exchange (Australia 15 listings)– World Stock Exchange (Australia, 15 listings)
– VSTEX (Italy, 7 listings)– Ancapex (US, 3 listings)
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Advisory/Analyst firms
We hope that during 2009 STKI will b t th d ill h it’
H&R Block Island
BDO Stoy Hayward Island
KAWG&F (Baltimore MD CPA firm), CPA Island Accenture
be present there and will have it’s first SUMMIT
Business
Motorati SpokesAvatar:
LLi Li
IBM
CiscoPreen Principal:Aimee Weber
Preen
86
caLLie cLine
H&R Block
Dr. Dobbs Life 2.0 Conference
Best Buy’sGeek Squad
Academia, museums, non‐profits
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Princeton Art Gallery Science Friday
International Spaceflight Museum
Computer History Museum
American Cancer Society Relay for
Life
US Congress hot topic
Government, politics and collective action
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US Congress
European Community
US Congress – hot topic legislation
Campaign HQs Davos protest
METAweb REVOLUTIONThe real, long-term change is just beginning to be felt, and anyone thinking about our economic future should consider this: • access to information is a democratizing force• makes it inexpensive and easy to collaborate and share
information Your Text hereYour Text here
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information. • even the smallest companies can now have as big a
presence online as a multinational corporation
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The revolution may have started in a garage in California but it has already crossed every border
moving as freelyaround the globe as a cloud
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