WHEN THE LIGHTS GO OUTWHEN THE LIGHTS GO OUT

MAXWELL IRVINE

GUILDFORD

OCTOBER 2005

POWER TO THE PEOPLE: POWER TO THE PEOPLE: NUMBERS COUNTNUMBERS COUNT

POWER TO THE PEOPLE: POWER TO THE PEOPLE: NUMBERS COUNTNUMBERS COUNT

Energy is quite simply the single most important commodity for our existence and the survival of our society and our civilization.

Ensuring an adequate, safe, sustainable and secure supply should be our highest national priority. It is easy to forget this in times of abundance.

POWER TO THE PEOPLE: POWER TO THE PEOPLE: NUMBERS COUNTNUMBERS COUNT

‘Power to the people’ is not a call for political revolution but it is a call for urgent political action.

No amount of political wishful thinking will resolve the issues. This is a quantitative as well as qualitative set of issues and ‘numbers count’

CAVEATCAVEAT

These are my personal views. My Committee’s Report is due in June 2006.

I am on a steep learning curve and am open to conversion.

Because of time, I will concentrate on the Global picture as a back drop to the discussion session.

CURRENT UK POLICYCURRENT UK POLICY

Current policy is enshrined in the 2003 White Paper ‘Our Energy Future: creating a low carbon economy’.

No new nuclear stations in the forseeable future.

Heavy dependence on ‘renewables’.Replacement of domestic fossil fuels by

imported gas.

OUR ENERGY FUTURE:OUR ENERGY FUTURE:

. “This is not a White Paper; it is a Green Paper with a broad yellow stripe” (House of Commons Select Committee).

“ We have met no one outside Government who believes these figures” (House of Lords Select Committee)

“ …that is why it is a political aspiration and not a policy target” (Energy adviser DTI)

ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY DEMAND DRIVERSDRIVERS

People use energy – more people require more energy.

The more people do, the more energy they require. Economic development feeds on energy.

The more severe the climate the greater the need for energy.

POPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTH (BILLIONS)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Africa N.America L&SAmerica Asia Europe Global

1973 1983 19932003 2020(PROJ)

POPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTH

1950-2000 the population grew from 2.4 billion to over 6 billion.

2000 – 2020 the UN is projecting a growth to 7.5 billion.

By 2050 the UN predicts a global population of 9 billion (260 people for every square mile of dry land.

POPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTH

Europe and North America have stable populations. They produce and consume half the World’s energy.

The developing World has a rapidly expanding population and economic growth.

China and India (1/3 of global population) are experiencing double digit economic growth.

ENERGY GROWTHENERGY GROWTH

1950 – 2000 energy demand quadrupled.2000 – 2050 it is expected to double

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLYGLOBAL

HYDRO 2.2%NUCLEAR 6.8%

BIOMASS 10.9%

OIL 34.9%

COAL 24.8%

GAS 21.2%

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY 2002

OECD 52.2

L&S AMER 4.4

ASIA 23.8

FORM USSR 9.1

MID EAST 4.2AFRICA5.3

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY % BY REGION 2002

COAL 20.8

HYDRO 2.0OTHER 0.7

NUCLEAR 11.1

GAS 21.9BIOMASS 3.3

OIL 40.4

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY BY OECD COUNTRIES 2002

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLYSUPPLY

Fossil fuels account for 80.9% of all global energy supply. 83.1% in OECD.

Biomass ( all non fossilised hydrocarbons, including waste) accounts for 10.9% globally but only 3.3% in OECD

Others (wind, waves, tides, solar, geothermal etc) account for <0.5%

COAL 39

OIL 7.2GAS 19.1

NUCLEAR 16.6

HYDRO 16.2

OTHER 1.9

ELECTRICITY GENERATION % BY PRIMARY FUEL 2002

FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

COAL 7.1

GAS 16.2

OIL 43.0

BIOMASS 14.1

ELEC 16.1OTHER 3.5

GLOBAL % 2002

FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIONBY REGION

OECD 52.1

ASIA 23.6

AFRICA 5.7

MID EAST 4.1

L&S AMER 5.0

FORM USSR 8.6

% 2002

FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE OECDBY FUEL

OIL 52.7

OTHER 1.4COAL 3.3

ELECTRICITY 19.7

BIOMASS 3.2

GAS 19.7

ENERGY CONSUMPTIONENERGY CONSUMPTION

Two thirds of all electricity is generated by burning fossil fuels (more than a third by coal)

Direct burning of fossil fuels accounts for two thirds of all final energy consumption

In the OECD more than three quarters of final energy consumption comes as fossil fuels (mostly oil)

Consumption matches supply

SUSTAINABILITYSUSTAINABILITY

Two issues – availability and impact of use

0

50

100

150

200

250

COAL OIL GAS TOTAL

CURRENT +1%PA +2%PA

YEARS TO EXHAUSTION OF PROVEN GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES AT CURRENT CONSUMPTION AND WITH 1% AND 2% GROWTH RATES

FOSSIL FUEL EXHAUSTIONFOSSIL FUEL EXHAUSTION

Current proven reserves of all fossil fuels will be exhausted in just over 50 years if current trends continue.

New reserves will be found, new technologies will lead to greater depletion efficiency and as costs rise uneconomic fields will become viable.

However, oil and gas finds have lagged behind field exhaustion for nearly twenty years.

Costs are now rising steeply (>100%pa)

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

Concerns about coal go back to the Industrial Revolution.

Particulate omission (smoke banned 1960s)

Acid rain (sulphur emissions controlled 1970s)

Emission controls cost money – coal consumption peaked in1980s

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

Now the concern is global warming (carbon gasses emitted by all hydrocarbon burning)

The Kyoto agreement requires all signatories to reduce carbon emissions in stages until 2050 (UK by 60%)

OECD

AFRICA

MID EASTASIA

FORM USSR

CHINA

L&S AMER

NON OECD EUROPE

10.96

0.89

6.331.14

7.78

2.57

1.98

4.37

PER CAPITA CO2 EMISSIONS IN TONNES

PROBLEMPROBLEM

Currently 80% of all energy comes from fossil fuels.

Global energy demand is expected to double by 2050.

Environmental and availability issues would suggest that fossil fuel consumption should halve by 2050

If the above is accepted then fossil fuels will only contribute 20% of energy by 2050.

OPTIONSOPTIONS

Savings and efficiency 20% Fossil fuels 20% Hydroelectricity < 5% Biomass <10% Alternatives < 10% New technologies: No fusion before 2050;

hydrogen net energy consumer Nuclear: under current global policies <10%

PROBLEMPROBLEM

At the most optimistic, there is a 25% energy

gap by 2050.

PROBLEMPROBLEM

RISING FOSSIL FUEL PRICES COULD DESTABILISE WORLD ECONOMIES – WORLD RECESSION SAVES FUEL

THE CHINESE HAVE REPLACED THE USA AS THE FINANCIAL DRIVERS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION FOR FOSSIL FUELS COULD BREED POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND TERRORISM

FOSSIL FUELS IN POLITICALLY UNSTABLE TERRITORIES (INVESTMENT?)

PROBLEM UKPROBLEM UK

NORTH SEA GAS <15 YEARS (NORWAY)-DECLINING

NORTH SEA OIL<10 YEARS-DECLINING DOMESTIC COAL UNECONOMIC NO MORE HYDROELECTRICITY WIND AND MARINE POWER < 50% OF

ELECTRICITY (<10% OF ENERGY) BY 2050 NUCLEAR TO BE PHASED OUT (CURRENTLY

25% OF ELECTRICITY) BY 2030

PROBLEM UKPROBLEM UK

THE GRID!!!KYOTO???????

UK NUCLEARUK NUCLEAR

CORWM DESPERATE SHORTAGE OF TECHNICAL

CAPACITY INTERNATIONAL MARKET FOR ENERGY

PLANTS WILL BE EXTREMELY COMPETITIVE (>160 NUCLEAR PLANTS ON ORDER)

NON CARBON PRODUCING ELECTRICITY GENERATION ON A VAST SCALE THE ONLY SOLUTION (HYDROGEN)

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

Investment decisions are needed in the next 2-3 years (Number 10 has promised a nuclear decision in this session of Parliament)

The biggest obstacle to efficient energy use is conflicting Government bureaucracies

To implement an energy strategy we require an non departmental Energy Agency

Otherwise…..