DISPLACED PHASE CENTER ANTENNA SAR IMAGING BASED ON COMPRESSED SENSING
When Digital Imaging displaced Kodak Film
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Transcript of When Digital Imaging displaced Kodak Film
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Christian Sandström holds a PhD from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden. He writes and speaks about disruptive innovation and technological change.
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Before digital imaging, Eastman Kodak had been a rising star for a century.
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Kodak had popularized
photography and made it accessible, user-friendly and
affordable.
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Digital imaging was the next revolution.
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In the early 1990s, Kodak tried to make predictions regarding the diffusion of the new technology.
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Back in 1985, Kodak founded the ’Technical Intelligence Group’ which primarily dealt with such issues as the substitution of film by digital imaging.
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Digital imaging had been hyped back in the 1980s but no major commercial breakthrough had been
accomplished yet.
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In 1994, the group had come up with a technology substitution forecast.
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Under the direction of Terry Faulkner, Tone Kelly had made a forecast which was based
upon the logic of an S-curve.
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History has shown that new technologies and products tend to be
diffused at an initially low pace…
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As the technology becomes more widely known and the performance reaches sufficient levels the pace increases…
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… And eventually the growth slows down as the market starts to mature.
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Based upon this logic and a careful analysis, Faulkner and Kelly concluded
in 1994 that 50 percent of the market would be digital in 2004.
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This forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate (it actually
happened in 2003).
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For a company that made virtually all its profits on film, this wasn’t good news.
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When the forecast was
presented to top management it
wasn’t well received by everyone.
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Some of them referred to the large installed
base of cameras and others
pointed at the growth
opportunities related to emerging markets.
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One can understand people who did not want to believe in these
estimates…
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The implications were huge for a company like Kodak who made virtually
all profits on film.
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The value of being vertically integrated
would be lost.
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The competence base related to film would be rendered obsolete.
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The figures basically suggested that Kodak would be burning in ten years,
unless the entire company was changed.
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Frightening.
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While far from everyone was convinced, both the CFO Harry Kavetas (though not publicly) and the
CEO George Fisher believed in the forecast.
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With this information in your hands, what would you do on Monday?
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Fisher and Kavetas thought that Kodak had always been about film and that transforming
the entire company in less than a decade would be very difficult.
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They therefore tried to sell the company.
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Having started at Kodak in 1961, Faulkner now became director of Strategic Initiatives in 1995
reporting to George Fisher.
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His main job was to find potential buyers or companies that could merge with Kodak and to provide Fisher and Kavetas with talking points.
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Some of the companies that were approached declined after the first meeting…
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… Canon…
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… and Motorola.
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A potential merger with Xerox was
discussed in January 1996,
but did not lead anywhere.
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The discussions were renewed in 1997, but nothing
happened.
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Faulkner thought that a merger with HP would have been the ideal solution.
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In May 1997, Fisher met with Lew Platt of HP.
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The discussions resulted in a joint venture…
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… but not more than that.
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After having lost this opportunity it became increasingly difficult to find a potential partner.
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Kodak became increasingly desperate and even Gillette was approached with a proposal…
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Proctor & Gamble did not want to marry
Kodak either.
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Persuading these companies to merge with Kodak must have been quite a rhetorical
challenge…
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… Faulkner became increasingly frustrated and the last two efforts had seemed very far
fetched…
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Having had virtually no vacation for two years and worked very hard he eventually opted for
early retirement in late 1998.
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Digital revolutions tend to put companies as well as people in troublesome situations.
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Eventually, Kodak never merged with anyone and had to go through the revolution on its own.
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Thanks to:
Terry Faulkner