http://www.flickr.com/photos/alaw168/324768577/

What’s On Your Horizon?

A conversation about the 2008 NMC Horizon Report

with Scott Leslie, BCcampus

About The Horizon Report

Horizon Reports 2004-2007

The Advisory Board

research dialog

The Process (http://horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Main_Page)

hz08 tag

Perils of Predicting the Future

http://www.flickr.com/photos/kk/4983299/

Forecasting versus Predicting

Predicting is about certainty, and forecasting is about appreciating uncertainty. Forecasting gives a context for decision makers to act in the face of uncertainty. In the business world, uncertainty is our friend, because uncertainty is opportunity.

-- Paul Saffo

Not About Being “Right”

creative commons licensed flickr photo by dogfaceboy

Time to Adoption != Time To Viable

creative commons licensed flickr photo by dogfaceboy

Not Determinism, but Technology Does Transform

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rutty/503238148/

Trendshttp://www.flickr.com/photos/banlon1964/11647398/

• The growing use of Web 2.0 and social networking—combined with collective intelligence and mass amateurization—is gradually but inexorably changing the practice of scholarship.

• The way we work, collaborate, and communicate is evolving as boundaries become more fluid and globalization increases.

• Access to—and portability of—content is increasing as smaller, more powerful devices are introduced.

• The gap between students’ perception of technology and that of faculty continues to widen. Students and faculty continue to view and experience technology very differently.

Challenges

http://www.flickr.com/photos/nessman/2795762/

• Significant shifts in scholarship, research,creative expression, and learning have createda need for innovation and leadership at alllevels of the academy.

• Higher education is facing a growingexpectation to deliver services, content andmedia to mobile and personal devices.

• The renewed emphasis on collaborativelearning is pushing the educational communityto develop new forms of interaction andassessment.

•The academy is faced with a need to provideformal instruction in information, visual, andtechnological literacy as well as in how to createmeaningful content with today’s tools.

The Three Horizonshttp://www.flickr.com/photos/fristle/1538513687/

Horizon 1- One Year or Less

“What would you list among the established technologies that learning-focused institutions should all be using broadly today to support or enhance teaching, learning or creative expression?”

http://www.flickr.com/photos/splat/729854812/

Horizon 2 - Two to Three Years

“What technologies that have a solid user base in consumer, entertainment, or other industries should learning-focused institutions be actively looking for ways to apply?”

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mobilhomme/2181653996/

Horizon 3 - Three to Five Years

“What are the key emerging technologies you see developing to the point that learning-focused institutions should begin to take notice during the next 3-5 years?”

http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevenwbohm/1285931512/

Play the Horizon Game – The Camosun Version!

“What would you list among the established technologies that learning-focused institutions should all be using broadly today to support or enhance teaching, learning or creative expression?”

“What technologies that have a solid user bas in consumer, entertainment, or other industries should learning-focused institutions be actively looking for ways to apply?”

“What are the key emerging technologies you see developing to the point that learning-focused institutions should begin to take notice during the next 3-5 years?”

The 2008 Short List

The 2008 Finalists

http://www.flickr.com/photos/the-o/2144485591/

Horizon 1 – Grassroots Video

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ezalis/77430740/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/shapeshift/125590964/

Horizon 1 – Collaboration Webs

Horizon 2 – Mobile Broadband

http://www.flickr.com/photos/andyi/482006549/

Horizon 2 – Data Mashups

http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/brian/archives/040266.php

Horizon 3 – Collective Intelligence

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mykaul/21095046/

Horizon 3 – Social Operating Systems

After Five Years: The Metatrends

Research Agenda

http://horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Research_Agenda

K-12 Horizon Project

http://horizonproject2008.wikispaces.com/