What’s Hot and What’s Not? Changes in development thinking in the last 5 years
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Transcript of What’s Hot and What’s Not? Changes in development thinking in the last 5 years
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What’s Hot and What’s Not?Changes in development thinking in
the last 5 years
Duncan Green2013
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Global Financial Crisis
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Global Food Price Spikes
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The Arab Spring
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Climate Chaos
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4 Trends in how we think about Development
• Changing understanding of Poverty• Rising importance of Inequality• Working in Complex Systems• Power and Theories of Change
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What is Poverty?
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Poverty and volatility
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Implications for Aid & Development Agencies
• Change your metrics• Tackling hard core chronic poverty – disabled,
elderly, remote – needs different policies• Smoothing/avoiding/coping with Volatility is
more important than we thought• Resilience = the new fuzzword• Care economy (food price spike, financial
crisis)
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Inequality
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Globally, it’s the 2%
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G20 doing badly
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LICs doing better (on average)
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‘The Palma’ v Gini: Birth of an Index?
• Ratio of income of top 10% to bottom 40%• Falling v Rising Palma index– X3 in reducing hunger and extreme poverty– X2 in progress on access to improved water– +30% in progress on U5MR
• Worth pursuing?
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Implications for Aid & Development Agencies
• Gini or Palma?• Relationships, power and politics• Taxation/Domestic Resource Mobilization• Identify and target ratchet mechanisms
(hyperinflation, volatility, financial exclusion)• V tricky politics, esp for official agencies
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Complex Systems v causal chains
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Implications for Aid & Development Agencies
• ‘Whole of society’ interventions• Fast feedback and realtime data• Multiple experiments and rapid evolution• Measurement and Results for grown ups • Rules of thumb, not best practice & toolkits• Who to employ? Searchers not planners
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The power and change cycle
Power Analysis
Change Hypothesis
Monitor, Learn, Adapt
Select Change Strategies
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“In telling us what can be achieved byordinary people through organised
action, this book generates hope even as it enhances understanding of what
is involved in the removal of poverty.”Amartya Sen
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But blogging is more fun....