CHAPTER 1 You Can Never Be Completely Sure What Might Happen Next
What Will Happen Next? (And Will We Like It?) Will Happen Next? (And Will We Like It?) Gary Bridge,...
Transcript of What Will Happen Next? (And Will We Like It?) Will Happen Next? (And Will We Like It?) Gary Bridge,...
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© 2005 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. IBSG - 1
What Will Happen Next?(And Will We Like It?)
Gary Bridge, Ph.D.Senior Vice PresidentInternet Business Solutions Group
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© 2005 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. IBSG - 2
Three Factors Drive Change
Dem
ogra
phic
s Technology
Economy
Culture
IBSG - 2
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The industrialized world faces a Productivity Imperative
• A Demographic Crunch is coming . . .
• More retired people, and fewer workers means . . .
• Workers must be more productive than today’s workers, or our standard of living will erode dramatically
Point #1
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European Union: Population AgingEU
>65
Yrs
. Old
EU
>65
Yrs
. Old
00
2020
4040
6060
8080
100100
120120
61.8M61.8M
103M103M
60% increase
60% increase
20002000 20502050
Source: FT, 4 Oct. 2003
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European Union: 2000 vs. 2050
WorkersWorkers
RetiredRetired
5:15:1 2:12:1
243M243M203M203M
-16% decline-16%
decline
EU A
dult
Popu
latio
nEU
Adu
lt Po
pula
tion
0%0%10%10%20%20%30%30%40%40%50%50%60%60%70%70%80%80%90%90%
100%100%
20002000 20502050
Source: The New York Times, April 4, 2004
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“Too many retirees in China, and not enough young people to replace them.”
Because of Birth RestrictionsChina Faces a GrowingProductivity Imperative –Fewer Workers per Retiree
Because of Birth RestrictionsChina Faces a GrowingProductivity Imperative –Fewer Workers per Retiree
THE MATH IS SIMPLENumber of workersNumber of retireesLongevity of retirees
? Productivity per worker
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Question:What are our policy options?
Cut benefitsAnswer:
OR grow productivity
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Delay Retirement
Early Retirement62Reduced Benefits
Early Retirement62Reduced Benefits
6868
Regular Retirement65Full Benefits
Regular Retirement65Full Benefits
7272
Source: Fortune, 2004, report ofSocial Security Admin. analysis Photo: Economist, 2004
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Reduce Benefits
27% decreasein benefits
Source: Fortune, 2004, analysis of Social Security Admin. report
Example: Ration healthcare at end-of-life
20% of patients consume80% of all healthcarespending
Source: Hewitt AssociatesDefined Care 2003 Summit
1/3 of lifetime medical spendingoccurs in the last 5 years of life.80% of that spending is in last 30 days of life, therefore 25% of lifetime spending is for last month of life
Source: Hewitt Associates, 2003 Healthcare Web Summit
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Rationing Is Reality Already
Source: Wall Street Journal, 22 November 2005
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Raise Current Workers’ TaxesWorkers’ social security taxes for current retireesmust increase or pensions must be cut drastically
Year
Perc
ent o
f Tax
able
Pay
roll
Paid OutPaid Out
BalanceBalance
20032003 20132013 20232023 20332033 20432043 20532053 20632063 20732073-10-10
-5-5
55
1010
1515
2020
00
Source: Social Security Administration
Social Security Income RateSocial Security Income Rate
Social Security BalanceSocial Security Balance
Social Security Cost RateSocial Security Cost Rate
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Grow Productivity Faster
To simply stay in place, workerswill have to produce 2.5X more per hourthan they do today
1
To continue the living standard improvements that Americans haveenjoyed since 1948, each 2050 worker will have to produce 5X more than a worker today
3X
4X
5X
20502005Source: Cisco IBSG Analysis
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Productivity Gap: UK Illustration
100
90
120
110
80
Productivity Index
20011995 1997 1999
Government productivity flat while private sector grows
Gap
Government Services ProductivityGovernment Services Productivity
Overall Services ProductivityOverall Services Productivity
Source: McKinsey Quarterly, Dec 2004, OECD, U.K. National Statistics Office, Latest Available Data
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• IT investments drive productivity gains
• How IT solutions are implemented makes a big difference in results
• Organizational issues, not technology, pose the biggest challenge to productivity
Point #2
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What Drives Productivity?
Contribution to Long-term Productivity Growth of 2.2%
1.15%Technological Change and Other Factors
1.15%Technological Change and Other Factors
0.23%ImprovedLabor Quality
0.23%ImprovedLabor Quality
0.82%Capital
Investment
0.82%Capital
Investment
*Average Annual Rate 1948-2001*Average Annual Rate 1948-2001 Data: US Bureau of Labor StatisticsData: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
52%52%
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E-Government Continuum
Mobility
RemoteService Delivery
Co-production of Value
Self-Service
StaticInformation
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• Self-service raises productivity
• RFID technology facilitates self-service
• We know how to motivate self-service behavior
• Redeploy the labor saved to create new value for citizens
Point #3
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Filing Electronic Tax Returns
Requires private sector enablement:Four software companies account for 80% of the filings
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US e-Filing Tax Returns
46.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Perc
ent o
f All
Ret
urns
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: irs.gov/taxstats
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Automating Labor Out of Retailing
Bar Codes
1974
RFID Tags
Pallet-level
2005
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Automated Scales for Produce
Scale automatically recognizes product, prints bar code label
Enables self-service check out
Faster, cheaper
Photo: Joe Reilly, Metro Group, Future Store
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Checkout Automation
Rule of thumb: 2.6 agents instead of 4 Photo: Metro Group, Future Store
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Redeploy Labor to Create Value
Photo: Gary Bridge, Metro Group, Future Store
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Barriers to Co-Production
BarriersBarriers SolutionsSolutions• Do not know what to do
• There is a simpler way to do it
• Citizens are not motivated
• Lack knowledge or skill
Tell them
Change it
Reward them
Teach them
Source: Honebein and Cammarano, 2005
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Barriers to Co-Production
BarriersBarriers SolutionsSolutions
Redeploy laborShare gains
• Worker resistance
There will be noalternative whenDemographic Crunch hits
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Citizens, Private Enterprise and Non-Government Organizations will generate valued public services, if Government provides the proper environment for collaboration
Point #4
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© 2005 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. IBSG - 28Source: earth.google.com © 2005 digitalglobe
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Victims Find Information Online
© 2005 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. IBSG - 29
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How Can Government Harness Citizens’ Talents and Interests?
• Disaster response
• Surveillance, public safety reporting
• Land use monitoring
• Pollution monitoring
• Water conservation, water quality
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State of Texas Streamlines Services for People in Need
• Challenge:Consolidate disparate systems whilereducing costs and providing better services for citizens
• Solution: 2-1-1 Call CenterDirect, transparent access to health and human services for all Texas citizens—never closed
• Results:Shorter waiting time for benefit recipients and lower administrative costsAnticipated savings of US$400K per yearover the cost of a traditional call-center
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Help in Time of Crisis
• Texas 2-1-1 system assisted more than 170,000 callersafter Katrina hit
• Calls went from 2,500 daily to 10,000• Quickly added 200 statewide 2-1-1 agents
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Where to Invest
• Invest in infrastructure that citizens can use to produce public benefits
• Set standards – define the path forward
• Invest in collaboration -- information allows groups to coordinate their activities
• Provide knowledge management -- best practices
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“The Death of Distance”• Complex services can be
delivered remotely
• That provides access for more citizens
• But also allows jobs to be exported
Point #5
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Evolution of Transportation -- SpeedTransatlantic CrossingsTransatlantic Crossings
Sirius, first transatlantic
crossing under continuous steam
power
Sirius, first transatlantic
crossing under continuous steam
power
London to New York
via Concorde
supersonic jet
London to New York
via Concorde
supersonic jet
The Queen Mary
The Queen Mary
Mayflowersailing ship Mayflower
sailing ship
London to New
York via space travel
London to New
York via space travelH
ours
–Lo
g Sc
ale
1212
9696
360360
1,5831,583
3.53.5
.75.750
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
1620 1838 1936 1945 1977 2015
Washington to Paris via Lockheed
Constellation airplane
Washington to Paris via Lockheed
Constellation airplane
23%23%
27%27%
13%13%
29%29%21%21%
Year
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Nonstop Flights between Any Two CitiesHong Kong London
Compare: 1930’s –1940’s London to SydneyClipper Ship Flying Boat10 days (~240 hours)32 stops
Source: Wall Street Journal, 11 Nov. 2005
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Establishment of the World's First Telerobotic Remote Surgery
• The environment is created to immerse the surgeon in the atmosphere of the operating room
• Two large-screen televisions bring images of the operating room
• The two surgeons are also in constant communicationusing wireless headsets
Source: Medscape: September 2003
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eICU Remote Monitoring
• Telemedicine transforms ICU care
• Early warning software and electronic monitoringconnected to off-site critical care
• Physician specialists (“intensivists”) and critical care nurses monitor ICU patients constantly
Source: Visicu 2005
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© 2005 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. IBSG - 39
Remote Airport Monitoring
Send X-ray images to scanners in central facility
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Mobility raises productivity
The Mobility Goal:• The right information
• For the right person
• At the right time
• On the right device (format)
• Securely
Point #6
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Mobile Growing, Wireline Declining
0100200300400500600700800
1,000
1,300
1,100
900
1,200
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Minutes(In Billions)
600.
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of LocalWireline Calls(in Billions)
Wireless Interstate Wireline Switched Access
Source: FCC Trends in Telephone Service Report, June 2005, and the Yankee Group 2005 North America Wireless/Mobile Carrier Tracker
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Mobile Phones Help Indian Fishing Boats Maximize Value of Catch
Mobile phones allow fishermen to negotiate prices before reaching shore
Communications drive an efficient market – value of catch is maximized by auctioning among nearby ports
Source: Network Magazine August 2005, Express Computer June 2003
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© 2005 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. IBSG - 43
World Internet Users and Population Use will reflect world population
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Growing Number of Remote Workers
60% lower costs to support remote worker
Appeals to youngerworkers, who seek flexibility
Success depends onrole and expectations
Source: BusinessWeek, 12 Dec. 2005
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• Disasters and crises are occurring more frequently
• Constitutional government requires continuity of operations
• Mobility contributes to continuity of operations
Point #7
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US Federal Continuity Initiatives
• CivilianContinuity of Operations Plan (COOP)
Enduring Constitutional Government (ECG)
Continuity of Government Operations (CGO)
• DefenseDefense Continuity Program (DCP)
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US Federal Continuity Initiatives
40% of US Gov’tofficials expect
dirty bomb attackwithin next 10 years
National Counterterrorism Center,2005
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1994-1998 1999-2003
Average Disastersper Year
Center for Research on Epidemiologyof Disasters, 2005
428
707• Civilian
Continuity of Operations Plan (COOP)
Enduring Constitutional Government (ECG)
Continuity of Government Operations (CGO)
• DefenseDefense Continuity Program (DCP)
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Continuity Requires Integrated Technologies Across Organization
Workforce ResilienceWorkforce Resilience
Communication Resilience
Communication Resilience
Application Resilience
Application Resilience
Network ResilienceNetwork
ResilienceIn
tegr
ated
Sec
urity
Inte
grat
ed S
ecur
ity
Continuity of Operations
Continuity of OperationsWhat is Required?What is Required?
WorkersAllow key staff to perform functions under various threat conditions
WorkersAllow key staff to perform functions under various threat conditions
CommunicationsMaintain critical communications within and between agencies and to customers and public
CommunicationsMaintain critical communications within and between agencies and to customers and public
InformationProtect and enable critical information systems, applications, and records to support agency functions
InformationProtect and enable critical information systems, applications, and records to support agency functions
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Question:Is a worldwide pandemic coming?
Answer:Yes, but timing and severity are unclear
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Historic Lessons: 1918, 1957, 1968
1918 Influenza Pandemic 50+ Million Dead
Scaled to 2005 population200+ Million Dead
1918 Population = 1.6B2005 Population = 6.5B
4X Larger
23 MillionAIDS deaths
since recognized in 1981
23 MillionAIDS deaths
since recognized in 1981
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Zoonoses Danger Is Greater TodayDiseases that can jump from animals to humans
• Larger populationWorld population 1918 = 1.6B, today’s 6.5B
• More pigs and poultry, which are the virus reservoir
Pigs China 5.2M 508M
Poultry China 12.3M 13B
• More physical connections between populations
• Inadequate surveillance systemOnly half countries participate in WHO monitoring, and wide areas of many participating countries are not covered
1968 2005
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European Influenza SurveillanceSpread Intensity
Source: http://www.eiss.org/cgi-files/bulletin
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Coming Pandemic?H5N1H9N2H7N7
Current Concern
World population = 6.5 BillionVaccine Available = 0.3 – 0.5 Billion dosesPotential population = 6.0 BillionExposure rate = ~ .50If exposed, Fatality rate = ~ .50*Potential deaths = ~1.5 Billion
1 in 4.3 people
World population = 6.5 BillionVaccine Available = 0.3 – 0.5 Billion dosesPotential population = 6.0 BillionExposure rate = ~ .50If exposed, Fatality rate = ~ .50*Potential deaths = ~1.5 Billion
1 in 4.3 people* Calculated from Viet Nam, Cambodia, Thailand H5N1 data
Science, 15 July 2005
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Coming Pandemic?H5N1H9N2H7N7
Current Concern
Intervene HereIntervene Here
World population = 6.5 BillionVaccine Available = 0.3 – 0.5 Billion dosesPotential population = 6.0 BillionExposure rate = ~ .50If exposed, Fatality rate = ~ .50*Potential deaths = ~1.5 Billion
1 in 4.3 people
World population = 6.5 BillionVaccine Available = 0.3 – 0.5 Billion dosesPotential population = 6.0 BillionExposure rate = ~ .50If exposed, Fatality rate = ~ .50*Potential deaths = ~1.5 Billion
1 in 4.3 people* Calculated from Viet Nam, Cambodia, Thailand H5N1 data
Science, 15 July 2005
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Coming Pandemic?
Intervene HereIntervene Here
World population = 6.5 BillionVaccine Available = 0.3 – 0.5 Billion dosesPotential population = 6.0 BillionExposure rate = ~ .50If exposed, Fatality rate = ~ .50*Potential deaths =
World population = 6.5 BillionVaccine Available = 0.3 – 0.5 Billion dosesPotential population = 6.0 BillionExposure rate = ~ .50If exposed, Fatality rate = ~ .50*Potential deaths =
H5N1H9N2H7N7
Current Concern
To limit deathsto 200 millionrequires <7%
exposure* Calculated from Viet Nam, Cambodia, Thailand H5N1 data
Science, 15 July 2005
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Avian Influenza: Government Impact
MILDOUTBREAK PANDEMIC
• Government expenses rise• Tax collections fall• 1 – 2 year recovery period
• Expenses rise dramatically• Taxes fall dramatically• Long recovery period• Major shift in political
power due to changing demographics
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Avian Influenza: Economic Impact
PANDEMIC
• Fundamentals deteriorate• Raw material prices collapse• Interest rates fall• Severe price deflation• Stocks fall in travel, hotels• Stocks rise in healthcare,
pharma, cleaning products, telecommunications, internet-related companies
Source: Citigroup analysis, Wall Street Journal 25 Nov. 2005
MILDOUTBREAK
• Slower economic growth• Stocks fall: 10 – 20% within 6
weeks for hotels, banks, materials, industrials, travel
• Price deflation• Rebound within year
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SARs: Lessons LearnedSEVERE ACUTE RESPITORY SYNDROME (SARS)• Began in Guandong Province, China,
Feb. 2003• 8,000 people stricken in one year• 10% fatality rate
Global effortto ISOLATE
Infected people
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SARs Outbreak: Cisco China ResponseSEVERE ACUTE RESPITORY SYNDROME (SARS)• Began in Guandong Province, China,
Feb. 2003• 8,000 people stricken in one year• 10% fatality rate
MOBILITYMOBILITY
• Home Broadband access• Wireless home networks• E-mail• IP Softphone• Instant Messaging• Collaboration• Video
• Home Broadband access• Wireless home networks• E-mail• IP Softphone• Instant Messaging• Collaboration• Video
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SECURITY
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There are no bystanders
What happens next depends on the decisions that governments, enterprises, and individuals make today
Point #8
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Conclusions
1. The Productivity Imperative is real2. Co-production of public value will grow3. Infrastructure and collaboration
investments foster citizen co-production4. Remote delivery of services improves
productivity5. Worker mobility improves productivity6. Mobility provides continuity of operations
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