What to Watch – Global Market Update (1/12/15)

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Charts to Watch Global Market Update January 12, 2015 Global ClientsGlobal Portfolios disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Charts to Watch report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

Transcript of What to Watch – Global Market Update (1/12/15)

Charts to WatchGlobal Market Update

January 12, 2015

Global Clients…Global Portfolios

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Charts to Watch report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

Financial Conditions

5

Developed Markets – Month to Date

jcalhoun
Oval

6

Emerging Markets – Month to Date

jcalhoun
Oval
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Oval
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Oval

7

Global Financial Stress Index – 5 Years

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Line

8

Marco Risk Index – 5 Years

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Line

9

The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)

Fixed Income & Credit

11

U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield

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Callout
Lowest closing levels since May 2013

12

Yield Curves: Treasuries, Investment Grade, & High Yield

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Callout
Credit Spreads widening as a result of lower treasury yields and higher junk bond yields

13

Yield Curves: US, Germany, Italy, & Spain

jcalhoun
Oval
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Oval
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Oval
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Oval
jcalhoun
Rectangle
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Rectangle
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Rectangle

14

Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

jcalhoun
Line
jcalhoun
Line

15

High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

jcalhoun
Oval
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Oval
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Oval

16

Emerging Market Bond Spreads

jcalhoun
Oval
jcalhoun
Oval
jcalhoun
Oval

17

Relative Bond Spreads

Global Equities

19

MSCI All Country World Index – USD

20

S&P 500 Index

21

MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index – USD

22

MSCI Emerging Markets Index – USD

23

SPX vs. EAFE vs. EM

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Callout
Emerging Market relative strength since December lows

24

Trend Analysis by Sector (S&P500)

25

Performance by Sector (S&P500)

The Economy

27

Last week’s Economic Calendar

28

Next week’s Economic Calendar

29

Fed’s 5 Year Forward Breakeven (Inflation Expectations)

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Oval
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Callout
Market expectations for inflation are low and oversold

30

U.S. Economic Watch – Leading Economic Indicators

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Oval
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Oval

31

U.S. Economic Watch – Leading Economic Indicators

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Oval
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Oval

32

U.S. Economic Watch – Housing Market

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Oval
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Oval
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Oval
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Oval

33

U.S. Economic Watch – Housing Market

jcalhoun
Oval

Currencies & Commodities

35

World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)

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Oval
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Oval
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Oval

36

World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q2 2015)

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Oval
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Oval
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Oval

37

US Dollar $

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Oval
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Oval

38

Euro €

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Oval
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Oval

39

Japanese Yen ¥

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Oval

40

Russian Ruble

41

Mexican Peso

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Oval
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Oval
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Oval
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Oval

42

Global Commodity Prices

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Continuous Commodity Index – 5 Years

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Oval
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Oval

44

Gold Prices – 5 Years

jcalhoun
Callout
Gold challenging 3 year downtrend

45

Crude Oil Prices – 5 Years

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Oval
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Oval

46

High Grade Copper – 5 Years