What to Expect from Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s U.S. Visit

7/29/2019 What to Expect from Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singhs U.S. Visit

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1 Center or American Progress | What to Expect rom Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singhs U.S. Visit

What to Expect from Indian Prime Minister

Manmohan Singhs U.S. VisitBy Caroline Wadhams and Aarthi Gunasekaran September 25, 2013

Despie ongoing urmoil in he Middle Eas, he Obama adminisraion coninues is

seady pursui o a oreign policy makeover, reoriening is atenion and resources o he

Asia-Pacicspecically India. Following a number o high-level visis by American

ocials o India, including Vice Presiden Joe Bidens rip in July and Secreary o Sae

John Kerrys rip in June, Indian Prime Miniser Manmohan Singh will mee wihPresiden Barack Obama omorrow during his second ocial rip o Washingon as

prime miniser.1

During he meeing, Presiden Obama and Prime Miniser Singh will likely ocus on he

ollowing six issues in he U.S.-India relaionship:

rade and invesmen

Deense cooperaion

Te U.S.-India civil nuclear deal

Climae change and clean energy

Immigraion reorm

Securiy issues and he sraegic parnership


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For he Obama adminisraion, underlying hese discussions will be he unme expeca-

ions o he U.S.-India relaionship, a relaionship envisioned as he cornersone o he

U.S. rebalance o he Asia-Pacic. While here were high hopes ollowing he U.S.-India

civil nuclear deal in 2008 and Prime Miniser Singhs 2009 visi o Washingon, many

U.S. policymakers have been disappoined by he Indian governmens ailure o deepen

he parnership by implemening he civil nuclear deal, making India more open o

invesmen opporuniies or U.S. businesses, and increasing deense cooperaion. AsVice Presiden Biden saed in a July speech in India describing he hopes or he U.S.-

India relaionship, Tere remains a gap beween wha we are doing and wha we are

capable o wihou in any way impacing on eiher o our counries sovereign decisions

... a gap beween his vision and he presen realiy.2

Te Obama adminisraion seeks a robus rade and invesmen parnership; a deepened

securiy and sraegic parnership in he Asia-Pacic; he implemenaion o he civil

nuclear deal; and more cooperaion on reducing climae change hrough a reducion in

hydrouorocarbons, or HFCs, and greaer cooperaion on clean energy producion. Te

Indian governmen will likely raise Indias key concerns regarding he cumbersome U.S.expor conrol sysem, proposed H-1B visa legislaion in he immigraion reorm bill,

and he U.S. miliary drawdown in Aghanisan. Boh governmens have been engaged

in a prolieraion o dialogues and working groups in a range o areas, such as educaion,

environmen, energy, and homeland deense, o ackle hese issues.

In he lead up o Indias elecions se or May 2014, he Indian governmen is ocused

largely on domesic prioriies including debaes around ood subsidies and is own

economic slowdown. Tis leaves litle space or pushing orward poliically conenious

economic reorms, such as decreasing domesic conen requiremens and srenghen-

ing inellecual propery laws o proec oreign companies. Tereore, in he near erm,he U.S.-India relaionship may coninue o underwhelm is observers, wihou signi-

can advances. Regardless, Prime Miniser Singh and Presiden Obama mus char a

long-erm course in which boh counries make changes and reorms in order o ensure

ha his relaionship says on he righ rack.

Trade and investment

Over he pas wo decades, he Indian economy seemed unsoppable. U.S. and global

companies looked o he counrys as-growing populaion or new consumers, is bulg-

ing youh workorce or new labor, and is skyrockeing economic growh or invesmen

and rade opporuniies.


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Te recen economic downurn in India, however, has revealed no only Indias vulner-

abiliies o exernal global dynamics, bu also he serious weaknesses wihin he Indian

economy ha have given pause o oreign businesses and caused companies o cu heir

invesmens in India, such as in he seel indusry.3 Fundamenal inernal problems

include Indias large curren accoun deci, narrow ax base (only 3 percen o Indians

pay income ax), run-down inrasrucure, oudaed labor laws and weak rule o law, cor-

rupion, and burdensome bureaucracy.4 Te rupee, now markedly he wors-perormingcurrency in Asia, coninues o umble, having allen 16 percen agains he U.S. dollar

since May.5 While a weak currency has he poenial o make India a lucraive expor

marke, acors such as high prices on oil impors, poorly buil and crowded pors, and

irregular axes in expor zones impede upward growh aer an economic slump such

as he one India is acing.6 Moreover, annual Indian GDP growhwhich averaged 7.7

percen rom 2002 o 2011has slowed o 4.4 percen, and inaion has hi 6 percen.7

While bilaeral rade and invesmen beween he Unied Saes and India has qua-

drupled since 2006now a approximaely $100 billion, wih U.S. invesmen in India

a $28 billionhe Obama adminisraion and U.S. businesses argue ha he radeparnership has no reached is poenial and ha Indias rade policies are, in ac, some-

imes discriminaory o U.S. companies.8 Channeling he complains o some American

businesses, he Obama adminisraion has urged he Indian governmen o break down

business barriers by changing is inellecual propery laws, especially as hey relae o

pharmaceuicals. Te adminisraion has also urged he Indian governmen o address

inconsisen ax reamen; requiremens ha companies buy local conen, such as

in he elecommunicaions indusry and renewable energy secor; and limiaions on

oreign direc invesmens.9

Te Indian governmen has already underaken a number o policy changes o beginaddressing he economic slowdown and is rade and invesmen parnerships, including

easing invesmen rules or he reail secor and a number o oher indusriesa direc

atemp o woo oreign direc invesmen ow ino he counrys plummeing econ-

omy.10 While India has lessened many o hese invesmen resricions, however, myriad

sae rules and regulaions have emerged, creaing addiional invesmen barriers.

India has also aken oher seps, such as:

Increasing impor axes on gold and silver, which analyss credi as a key conribuor

o he sae o he curren accoun deci11

Haling he implemenaion o is preerenial marke access policy unil urher

review, which included local conen requiremens in echnology12

Requiring cenral bank approval or overseas invesmens ha are more han 100 per-

cen o a companys value, as a measure o keep dollar ouows in check13


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Tese reorms are already helping o dissipae ensions beween he wo counries.

Bu India has also resised oher demands based on hose o is own consiuencies.

For example, he Indian Pharmaceuical Alliance, or IPA, recenly responded o a U.S.

companys allegaions ha ani-paen decisions aken by he Indian governmen were

beneing Indian generic companies.14 Te IPA assered ha he Indian governmen

was allowed o annul paens o ensure ha is ciizens had access o afordable medi-cine by World rade Organizaion, or WO, sandardssuggesing ha he Unied

Saes should ake up he issue wih he W O and no India.15 Moreover, some Indians

see hypocrisy in hese requess, given ha he Unied Saes also has requiremens or

buying American goods and policies o ensure ha Americans have afordable access o

medicine.

In meeings wih Prime Miniser Singh, he Obama adminisraion will coninue o

push or a bilaeral invesmen reay, or BI, which i sees as a cenral mechanism or

srenghening rade relaions beween he wo democracies and as an essenial build-

ing block o a much more robus rade parnership.16

Tis reay, which has languishedsince 2006, aims o proec and promoe invesmens by seting ou a consisen se o

rules or companies in boh counries. Policymakers rom boh counries have engaged

in conversaions discussing he deails o he reay in anicipaion o Prime Miniser

Singhs visi, and Indian ocials have recenly indicaed ha hey may be willing o

sign he reay i Indian cours are given jurisdicion over cases ha arise.17 Te Obama

adminisraion will also coninue o make is case ha he Indian governmen should

address U.S. companies concerns relaed o local conen rules, oreign direc inves-

men resricions, and inellecual propery, among oher issues.

Defense cooperation

Policymakers in India and he Unied Saes have placed a high prioriy on improving

deense cooperaion as a cenral componen o a more robus parnership. As par o

he U.S. rebalance o he Asia-Pacic, he Unied Saes sees India as a key parner in

Souh Asias sabiliy and in advancing common securiy goals relaed o combaing

errorism, piracy, and nuclear prolieraion; supporing Aghanisans sabiliy; and in

providing a counerweigh o China. Tereore, he Unied Saes has commited o

supporing Indias efors o modernize is miliary and in as racking deense acqui-

siions or India.


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Over he pas decade, he U.S.-India deense relaionship has dramaically improved

alongside Indias signican modernizaion o is armed orces, especially is navy. In

2005, he U.S. and Indian deense secrearies signed he New Framework Agreemen

which expanded deense rade, increased join exercises and exchanges, expanded col-

laboraion in mulinaional operaions, and increased opporuniies or co-producion

and echnology ranserwhich has aced as he oundaion or U.S.-India deense

cooperaion.18 Since hen, a series o subgroups and agreemens have provided guid-ance on aciliaing sronger dialogue beween he wo naions, ranging rom mariime

securiy o counererrorism operaions.

Cooperaion on counererrorism and inelligence sharing has never been closer. Join

miliary exercises and raining occur wih increased requency; India conducs more

join exercises wih he Unied Saes han any oher counry.19 In addiion, he Indian

governmen has bough more han $8 billion in U.S. miliary goods since 2008, and is

expeced o purchase $5 billion more in deense producs in he near uure.20 U.S. com-

panies such as Lockheed Marin, Boeing, and Rayheon are seeking o expand business

in India as he naion plans o upgrade is Cold War-era miliary equipmen, becominghe worlds op arms buyer wih a plan o spend $100 billion over he nex 10 years.21

In order o jumpsar U.S.-India deense rade, he Penagon has also aken seps o

reduce bureaucraic barriers and impedimens ha had previously resriced deense

rade. Presiden Obamas 2010 Expor Conrol Reorm Iniiaive has reorganized and

updaed he sysem o beter sui he pos-Cold War landscape by reducing bureaucraic

red ape and sreamlining deense acquisiion processes.22 And he Deense rade and

echnology Iniiaive, or DI, in collaboraion wih Indian counerpars, aims o reduce

U.S. bureaucraic processes o make deense rade more simple, responsive and efec-

ive, as Depuy Secreary o Deense Ashon Carer saed.23

By making changes in he regulaory landscape, he Penagon seeks o open up high-

end echnology rade ows.24 I has also eased he licensing burden or he expor o

deense and dual-use goods and deconrolled a number o iems.25 Te adminisraion

is now seeking co-producion and co-developmen o miliary equipmen o boos col-

laboraion beween American and Indian companies.26 In a recen rip o India, Depuy

Secreary Carer has proposed ha he Unied Saes and India parner in ve co-pro-

ducion projecs, including he MH-60 Romeo muli-role helicoper, he Javelin missile,

and a naval gun.27


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While U.S.-India deense relaions have dramaically improved since he 1998 arms

embargo was lied under Presiden George W. Bush, challenges o urher deense coop-

eraion remain.28 Te denial o gran he conrac or Indias advanced gher aircra

o an American company disappoined U.S. policymakers.29 A he same ime, how-

ever, India has bough billions o dollars in cargo planes rom Boeing and Lockheed.30

(Te F-16 gher ofered o India was no seen as a compeiive buy due o he ac

ha Pakisan ies he idenical aircra.31) Moreover, he Indian governmen has sillsruggled o make signican reorms in is deense secor o open up he marke o U.S.

companies and loosen he resricions relaed o oreign direc invesmen and deense

ofsesrequiremens ha conracors source a cerain percenage o he conrac rom

Indian deense suppliers.32

Prime Miniser Singhs visi ofers an opporuniy o cemen urher deense cooperaion

beween he wo counries, especially in pursuing co-producion and co-developmen o

miliary hardware. Despie movemen by he Penagon o decrease bureaucraic impedi-

mens, Prime Miniser Singh will likely voice concerns over he diculies in buying

miliary hardware rom he Unied Saes.

The U.S .- India civi l nuclear deal

Te passage o he U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperaion Iniiaive in 2008 relieved

much o he hisorical ension in he U.S.-India relaionship and enabled he wo

counries o begin building a muliaceed parnership.33 Tis agreemen allowed or

nuclear cooperaion beween he wo democracies, liing a 34-year U.S. reeze on

nuclear rade wih India. However, many criics worried abou he message i sen o

saes such as Iran and Norh Korea.

Te deal esablished provisions ha would allow he Unied Saes o sell nuclear

echnology and uel o India; in exchange, India would allow inspecors rom he

Inernaional Aomic Energy Associaion, or IAEA, o access Indias civilian nuclear

reacors.34 In addiion, Indians agreed o work wih U.S. companies as hey buil

nuclear plans.35

Tis deal, however, has aced almos a decade o uncerainy and delayed implemena-

ion due o diferences beween New Delhi and Washingon regarding liabiliy concerns,

wih U.S. companies earul ha hey will be vulnerable o debiliaing lawsuis.36 Indias

nuclear-liabiliy provision ha has deerred American rms rom engaging in India

sems rom an ac passed by Indias parliamen in 2010.37 Te law originally said ha

companies are liable o pay poenially limiless moneary compensaion in he case o

a nuclear acciden. As o November 2011, he Indian governmen announced new rules

ha cap he liabiliy on oreign rms o under $300 million and also subjec claimans

seeking compensaion rom hose rms o ime consrains.38


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Te bill allows or boh operaors and suppliers o be liable under diferen laws, bu

wihou clariying which ones will apply o wha siuaions. Tis leaves every case o

he inerpreaion o cours, which again is subjec o emergen conics o ineres.

Noneheless, American companies, including Wesinghouse, have argued ha global

norms require he operaor o nuclear plans o oversee heir saey, no he rms sup-

plying maerials. For he Indians, he 1984 Union Carbide Bhopal gas leak, which killed

15,000 people, sill riggers ears abou oreign rms conducing work ha is poeniallyhazardous o public healh wihou considerable liabiliy measures, hereby creaing

poliical opposiion o weakening liabiliy provisions.39

During Prime Miniser Singhs visi, Obama adminisraion ocials will coninue o

press on implemening he civil nuclear deal, and specically a commercial agreemen

beween he Nuclear Power Corporaion o India, Ld., or NPCIL; Wesinghouse; and

General Elecric o begin building nuclear power plans in India.40 I he wo counries

bypass he longsanding impedimens surrounding he nuclear-liabiliy law by esablish-

ing a level playing eld or U.S. companies in he Indian nuclear secor, i would be one

o he main akeaways rom Prime Miniser Singhs meeing wih Presiden Obama.41

Climate change and clean energy

Te consequences o climae change have ravaged India, as hundreds o millions o

Indians livelihoods depend on climae-sensiive secors. Monsoon rains have been

unpredicable, and when i does rain, i rains harder or shorer periods o ime, increas-

ing ooding bu doing litle o alleviae drough condiions.42 emperaures have

climbed as well, shrinking Himalayan glaciers and creaing waer shorages in he rivers

below. ensions over waer beween India and neighboring counries are also on herise. And as a resul o energy shorages and weak crop yields, Indias rural populaion

has coninued is migraion ino he ciies, puting addiional pressure on power, sania-

ion, and inrasrucure resources in Indias already overaxed urban areas.43

Te Unied Saes and India have launched a number o join iniiaives on clean energy,

low carbon growh, climae, and a range o relaed opics. Te U.S.-India Parnership o

Advance Clean Energy, or PACE, is he signaure iniiaive o he Obama adminisra-

ion, ying ogeher U.S.-India cooperaion on clean energy research and deploymen.44

For example, under PACE-RPACEs research componenboh counries unded

a $125 million public-privae join research cener wih a ocus on solar energy and

advanced biouels. Te cener aims o involve more han 95 governmen, privae, and

universiy organizaions in his efor over ve years. And under PACE-DPACEs

deploymen componenUSAID and he Indian Minisries o Power and Renewable

Energy awarded $20 million over ve years o nance and build sraegies o deploy

echnologies such as hese a scale in India.45


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Te Unied Saes and India are also collaboraing wih energy and environmen minisers

o he worlds major economies in he Clean Energy Miniserial o promoe policies and

programs ha encourage low-carbon energy producion and consumpion.46 Te Indian

governmen co-sponsored he las Clean Energy Miniserial las spring in New Delhi,

promping he Indian governmen o sign on o a range o new volunary iniiaives.

Bu while he U.S.-India relaionship on clean energy has progressed, heir relaionshipon climae changeespecially cooperaion in mulilaeral orumshas deerioraed

since 2009 o is lowes poin o dae. While he Unied Saes and India have a or-

mal climae dialogue as par o he curren sraegic dialogue, many U.S. policymakers

believe ha India has no ye played he role ha i could or advancing eiher a signi-

can level o bilaeral cooperaion beween he wo counries or improving heir rela-

ionship in he mulilaeral process.

In June, during he ourh U.S.-India Sraegic Dialogue in New Delhi, Secreary Kerry

urged India or increased cooperaion on he il l efecs o climae change, saing ha

he irreversible climae challenge is speeding owards us, crying ou or a global solu-ion.47 One posiive developmen rom he dialogue was an agreemen o re-launch

he climae dialogue, bu i is sill sruggling on basic agenda iems. Moreover, Indias

Environmen Minisry is ocused on cooperaion wih oher BASIC counriesBrazil,

Souh Arica, and Chinaon a common posiion in opposiion o developed counries

in he U.N. climae alks.

Tere is ample room, hough, o ry o improve he U.S.-India relaionship in oher areas.

As a repor co-sponsored by he Council on Foreign Relaions and Aspen Insiue

India48 recommended, he Unied Saes could:

Provide greaer suppor o Indias atemps o comba deoresaion hrough he U.N.

Collaboraive Programme on Reducing Emissions rom Deoresaion and Fores

Degradaion

Fund a join U.S.-India innovaion cener o provide clean energy services o he poor

ocused on creaing a botom-up ramework or accommodaing he local needs and

condiions o Indian ciizens

Collaborae wih India o pressure inernaional organizaions and orums o place a

greaer ocus on nancing or climae change, a criical issue or Indian policymakers49


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Te creaion o a join U.S.-India plaorm or open innovaion in clean energy, which

could ge around some o he curren dispues beween he wo counries over local

conen resricions and inellecual propery righs, is anoher imporan idea. Tere are

also oher srong opporuniies or cooperaion on resilience and adapaion o climae

change, especially wih regard o waer securiy. Waer has become a regional securiy

issue as well, as he need or access o clean waer in India and neighboring counries

grows more acue.

Te op prioriy or he adminisraion now is o secure Indias agreemen o phase

down HFCs using he Monreal Proocol, which has hisorically been he mos suc-

cessul inernaional reay on environmenal cooperaion. Presiden Obama will likely

ask Prime Miniser Singh o make he same commimen recenly secured wih China,

o begin he ormal process o amending he proocol when he paries o he agree-

men convene in Bangkok in Ocober.50 HFCs are he ases-growing and mos poen

greenhouse gas, used primarily in rerigerans and insulaion. Tis one agreemen in

he Monreal Proocol could do more o reduce greenhouse gases in one sroke han

anyhing else, and would buy he world needed ime on orging an agreemen o reducecarbon dioxide.

Bu while Prime Miniser Singh agreed o language a he las G-20 summi ha gener-

ally endorsed exploring use o he proocol, a series o recen aricles in Te Hindu show

he governmen srongly walking back ha posiion and deriding i as a grab or U.S.

companies in he Indian marke.51 A ailure here will endanger oher avenues or coop-

eraion beween he wo counries and se a poenially disasrous one or he larger

U.N. climae negoiaions, which reconvene in November in Warsaw. I is imporan o

noe ha boh India and China have agreed o working groups on HFCs, bu have no

agreed on he iming. Te Unied Saes is pushing or Ocober, bu neiher India norChina have commited o ha dae.52

Immigration reform

Indian immigrans are he hird-larges immigran group in he Unied Saes, behind

immigrans rom Mexico and China. According o a recen sudy by he Deparmen

o Homeland Securiy, India ges almos wo-hirds o he H-1B visas o he Unied

Saesemporary nonimmigran visas or high-skilled workersreceiving more o

hese visas han any oher counry in he world.53

In 2012, 72 percen o H-1B visas were or workers beween he ages o 25 and 34, and

61 percen o approved H-1B visas were or workers in compuer-relaed occupaions.54

Whas more, 13 percen o incoming higher-educaion oreign sudens in 2012 were

Indian, and 72 percen o hese Indian sudens are pursuing graduae sudies in science,

echnology, engineering, and mahemaics, or SEM, degree programs.55


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Te number o sudens and proessionals applying or hese H-1B visas is consisenly

growing, and visa quoas are being lled a an increasing rae. U.S. Ciizenship and

Immigraion Services begins acceping applicaions on April 1or FY 2013, he 65,000

H-1B quoa was lled wihin 10 weeks; or FY 2014, he quoa was lled wihin ve days. 56

Presiden Obama has sressed he need or immigraion reorm, saing ha he Unied

Saes curren immigraion sysem does no properly manage he curren inow andouow o highly skilled workers. Addressing he naion earlier his year, he presiden

honed in on he H-1B visa issue, oulining ha he Unied Saes invies he brighes

minds o sudy a op universiies bu hen subjecs hem o he immigraion gridlock

and pushes ou hese high-skilled workers.57

While he recenly passed Senae immigraion reorm bill, S. 744, increases he annual

H-1B cap, he bill also proposes addiional visa ees or rms, ranging rom $5,000 o

$10,000.58 Te biparisan Senae group pushing or he bill is hopeul ha hese ees will

incenivize businesses o hire more qualied Americans, bu hese ees have also given

rise o corporae backlash in India.59

Some o Indias bigges ousourcing rms, inorma-ion echnology and soware rms, ear heir cos o operaions would increase signi-

canly wih he proposed bill.60

In a July visi o Washingon, Indian Commerce Miniser Anand Sharma raised concerns

over he immigraion reorm bill and he adverse efec i would have on he Indian I

indusryup o an $8 billion loss, according o one JPMorgan Chase esimae.61 In

early Sepember, ve ormer U.S. ambassadors o India sen a leter o House and Senae

leadership asking hem o suppor a cleaner immigraion reorm bill ha does no have

discriminaory provisions ha would harm U.S.-India businesses.62

In addiion, Indian companies are concerned abou a provision in he bill ha prevens

U.S. echnology rms rom placing personnel a cliens sies i more han 15 percen o

heir employees are on H-1B visas. Tis allegedly desroys he business models o many

global I service providers.63

Te immigraion legislaion passed by he Senae has no been aken up on he House side

ye, wih House GOP leaders saing ha he House will discuss individual componens

o he broad Senae bill raher han push hrough he proposed bill.64 Te House bill does

no place resricions on employers, leading many I businesses and Indian policymakers

o pu heir suppor behind he House legislaion.65 Te real conic lies in he quesion o

which billhe House or he Senae versionlands on Presiden Obamas able.

In his meeing wih Presiden Obama, Prime Miniser Singh will likely raise Indian com-

panies concerns regarding immigraion reorm proposals being debaed in Congress.

Te Obama adminisraion srongly believes ha he Senae immigraion reorm bill

should be passed and ha, while here may be problemaic secions relaed o India, he

overall bill is oo imporan o le ail.


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Security issues and the strategic partnership

Given Indias growing economic clou, democraic values, shared securiy objecives,

and modernizing miliary, he Unied Saes has seen India as a poenial parner in con-

roning hreas around he world and advancing sabiliy, especially in he Asia-Pacic.

Boh India and he Unied Saes share concerns over errorism, nuclear prolieraion,

Chinas rising inuence, and sabiliy in Aghanisan, among oher issues. However,difering perspecives, in addiion o domesic consrains, have someimes undermined

close collaboraion. Similar o oher emerging powers, Indians wan he prerogaives o

being a grea power wihou many o he responsibiliies.

Te ollowing ve issues may emerge during Presiden Obama and Prime Miniser

Singhs discussion relaed o he sraegic parnership.

Afghanistan and Pakistan

Te Unied Saes and India boh suppor a sable, unied Aghanisan, which prevens

erroris groups rom using Aghanisans erriory and serves as a cenral rade hub

connecing Souh and Cenral Asia. Indian policymakers have voiced ears abou he

Obama adminisraions ransiion plan ou o Aghanisan, earing ha he U.S. mili-

ary wihdrawal may lead o he collapse o he Aghan sae, a aliban resurgence, and

srenghened erroris groups. Te upcoming Aghanisan presidenial elecions in April

2014, in which Aghan Presiden Hamid Karzai will ranser he presidency o a demo-

craically eleced successor; poenial alks wih he insurgency; and he miliary draw-

down are all likely opics during Presiden Obama and Prime Miniser Singhs meeing.

Prime Miniser Singh will also likely raise Indias increasing concerns over he saus o

a bilaeral securiy agreemen beween he Unied Saes and Aghanisan, which would

ouline he pos-2014 U.S. securiy presence and nancial commimen o he Aghan

governmen. Ta negoiaion has been salled or many monhs, wih U.S. ocials sa-

ing ha i an agreemen is no reached by Ocober, hey will suspend urher negoia-

ions unil aer Aprils presidenial elecions. Te Indians, in addiion o many Aghans

and leaders in oher counries, believe ha he uncerainy over he U.S. presence is

creaing ear in Aghanisan and he region, leading o dangerous hedging behavior by

Aghan acors and regional players.

In addiion, Prime Miniser Singh is likely o discuss Indias concerns over he role ha

Pakisan may play in he lead-up o he Aghan elecions and in pos-2014 Aghanisan,

as well as in any negoiaions beween he Aghan governmen and insurgens.

Furhermore, Prime Miniser Singh and Presiden Obama may discuss he barrage

o horric erroris atacks in Pakisan and he increase in violence across he Line o

Conrol, he Indian-Pakisani dispued border dividing he Kashmir region. Presiden

Obama will hopeully voice his suppor or greaer rade beween he wo counries and

increased dialogue over errorism concerns and he uure o Aghanisan.


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Iran

Presiden Obama and Prime Miniser Singh may discuss various signals rom Irans lead-

ership, indicaing ha recenly eleced Iranian Presiden Hassan Rouhani may be willing

o reduce ensions wih he Wes and negoiae over Irans nuclear program.66

Indian and U.S. policymakers have viewed Iran and is role in he world diferenly.Indian policymakers have aimed o mainain an amicable relaionship wih Iran

based on Indian ineress in Iranian naural gas o saisy is growing domesic energy

demands, and access o Aghanisan and Cenral Asia hrough Irans por o Chabahar.

India suppors Irans righ o develop nuclear energy or peaceul purposes, bu has sup-

pored IAEA and U.N. Securiy Council sancionsbu no U.S. sancionsagains

Iran.67 As a resul o signican pressure rom he Unied Saes, India also agreed o

reduce Iranian oil impors, which led o he Unied Saes exemping India rom U.S.

sancions legislaion. India has also argued or a more signican role or Iran in suppor-

ing Aghanisans long-erm sabiliy.

China

While India and he Unied Saes recognize ha he ascension o China has had ben-

es or U.S. and Indian ineress, boh remain concerned over Chinas claims o dis-

pued islands and waerways in regards o oher Asian naions, is srenghening miliary

capabiliies, and is poenial o provoke conic in Asia. For India, Chinas increasing

economic and miliary inuence in Asia represens a direc challenge o India becoming

a larger player on he regional and global sage. For he Unied Saes, Chinas meeoric

economic growh has raised concerns surrounding he righ o access o inernaionalareas o he region such as waerways and rade roues.68

Te Unied Saes has hoped ha India, along wih oher key allies in he Asia-Pacic,

would assis in sabilizing he exising power balance. Meanwhile, Chinas economic rise

has raised new quesions abou he regional archiecure and U.S. sraegy; counries

rade wih China bu sill see he Unied Saes as a securiy provider. As a resul, he

Unied Saes has atemped o srenghen Indian capabiliies hrough miliary weapons

sales, join raining exercises, and proposals or co-producion o miliary hardware.69

While Indian deense planners appear o be reorming and building heir miliary wih

an eye oward China as a larger poenial hrea han even heir archrival Pakisan, hey

are relucan o direcly challenge Chinas growing presence in he Asia-Pacic given

heir exensive rading relaionship and close proximiy. China is a criical rading

parner or India; annual rade beween he wo counries reached $67.8 billion in 2012

o 2013, and is expeced o increase o $100 billion by 2015.70 Sill, India has sared o

make inroads in he region. For insance, India recenly ofered a $100 million credi line

or deense purchases o Vienam, a sign ha India is ready o engage Chinas neighbors

on deense issues.71


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Syria

India has opposed miliary acion in Syriadue o a longsanding policy o noniner-

venion, arguing ha he only accepable resoluion o he conic mus be a dip-

lomaic one.72 Unlike he Unied Saes, India had been generally supporive o he

governmen o Syrian Presiden Bashar al-Assad.73 When demonsraions began, India

suppored he proposed reorms ofered by he Assad regime o assuage he proes-ers and, as a resul, did no paricipae in voing or early U.N. resoluions calling or

Assad o sep down. However, India has also emphasized he imporance o an inclu-

sive democraic governmen. While some disagreemens remain beween he Unied

Saes and India on how o manage inernaional peace and securiy, India has long

been a major conribuor o U.N. peacekeeping missions, and is engaged in a join

peacekeeping working group wih he Unied Saes. Te Unied Saes should bolser

cooperaion and dialogue along hese lines.

Multilateral forums

Over he pas decade, India has expanded is role in mulilaeral insiuions, assising

in he launch o he G-20 Group o Developing Counries wih Brazil and Souh Arica

and paricipaing in he World rade Organizaion. A key issue in India is he endemic

malnuriion and ood-securiy problem. Las monh, India passed a landmark Food

Securiy Bill se o provide subsidized ood grain o 800 million people, which is approx-

imaely wo-hirds o he counrys populaion.74 India is home o he highes number

o malnourished children in he world, and he Congress Pary is pushing seps o ulll

one o heir campaign promiseso alleviae he widespread hunger.75 Tis overarching

bill ouches on various key componens o he widespread poveryi ensures maer-niy benes, provides mid-day meals o school-going children, and consolidaes various

ood-relaed programs and enilemens propagaed over he las decade.76

Tis poses a problem a he inernaional level, however, as rade relaions may be

srained wih hese new subsidy requiremens. Launched in 2004, a key proposal o

come ou o he WO Doha round o negoiaions is he rade aciliaion agreemen,

or FA, which had salled due o Indias concerns regarding ood-securiy issues.77

Te FA would simpliy and sreamline inernaional rade norms regarding cusoms

and ransacion coss on overall goods. Rajeev Kher, Indias chie negoiaor a WO,

menioned ha while he FA is desirable, he curren proposal does no provide he

ulimae benes ha developing naions such as India are seeking.78

India has mainained ha a comprehensive mulilaeral agreemen canno be reached

unless a provision relaxing ood-subsidy limis is included.79 Many counries are hoping

ha deal can be reached a he WO Bali Miniserial Conerence in early December.80

While he FA aims o reduce bureaucraic red ape, he impasse on ood securiy hrea-

ens is passagemany are upse wih India or holding he Bali conversaion hosage.81


14/17


Te Unied Saes has raised concerns ha ood-securiy programs will disor commod-

iy markes and cloud ransparency on expor and impor prices.82 India has argued ha

developing naions need a greaer exibiliy o setle prices o pay heir armers while

mainaining a balance in heir agriculural reserves.83 India and he Unied Saes are a

he oreron o his conversaion, bu boh naions have setled on negoiaing a peace

clause, which would ulimaely allow negoiaions o coninue wihou opponens o

Indias ood-subsidy concerns challenging he WO agreemen.84

Conclusion

Given he increasing convergence o ineress and shared values beween he Unied

Saes and India, Prime Miniser Singh and Presiden Obama should ocus on reaching

an agreemen on a ew key areas o undergird he U.S.-India relaionship. Tis includes

advancing he bilaeral invesmen reay or he rade parnership; deermining proj-

ecs or co-developmen and co-producion in he deense arena; advancing concerns

around Indias liabiliy laws o aciliae he civil nuclear deals implemenaion; andsecuring Indias agreemen o phase down HFCs using he Monreal Proocol.

Reaching an agreemen on hese issues will no be easy, given Indias upcoming elecions

in 2014 and U.S. congressional deadlock. Bu U.S. and Indian agencies, businesses, and

bureaucracies can coninue o deepen heir relaionships. Moreover, Prime Miniser

Singh and Presiden Obama may be able o use heir own execuive auhoriies, where

appropriae, o push some seps orward. Te las decade has shown ha he U.S.-India

sraegic parnership is a prioriy or U.S. and Indian policymakers. Boh India and he

Unied Saes sand o bene subsanially rom a srenghened economic, deensive,

and sraegic parnership. Moving orward on hese issues will also quell criics com-mens ha he U.S.-India relaionship has been oversoldPrime Miniser Singh and

Presiden Obamas meeing will be crucial in solidiying hese plans.

Caroline Wadhams is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress.

Aarthi Gunasekaran is a Research Assistant at the Center.


15/17


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38 Tom Wright, India, US Leaders Meet on Nuclear Law, TheWall Street Journal, November 18, 2011, available at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203699404577045231531004356.html.

39 1984: Hundreds die in Bhopal Chemical Accident, BBCNews, available athttp://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/december/3/newsid_2698000/2698709.stm;Bhopal Marks 25 Years Since Gas Leak Devastation, BBCNews, December 3, 2009, available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8392206.stm; Ranjit Devraj, PoliticsIndia: Bhopal Legac y Haunts Nuclear Liability Bill, Inter PressService, March 26, 2010, available at http://www.ipsnews.net/2010/03/politics-india-bhopal-legacy-haunts-nuclear-liability-bill/.

40 US Firm Westinghouse Signs MoU or Building NuclearPlants in I ndia, Business Today, June 14, 2012, available

athttp://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/us-rm-westing-house-signs-mou-on-india-nuke-plant/1/185448.html.

41 Verma and Wadhams, Deepening the U.S.-India Partner-ship.

42 Dr. S. Satapathy and others, Adaptation to Climate Change(Bonn: Gesellschat r Internationale Zusammenarbeit,2011), available at http://www2.gtz.de/dokumente/bib-2011/giz2011-0479en-climate-change-rural-india.pd.

43 Soutik Biswas, Is India in the Throes o Distress Migration?,BBC News, September 27, 2011, available athttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15056418.

44 U.S. Department o Energy, U.S.-India Partnership toAdvance Clean Energy: A Progress Report (June 2012), June14, 2012, available athttp://www.doe.gov/pi/oce-policy-and-international-afairs/articles/us-india-partnership-advance-clean-energy.

45 Ibid.

46 Clean Energy Ministerial: Accelerating the Transitionto Clean Energy Technologies, available at http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/ (last accessed September2013)..

47 In India, Kerry talks Climate Change, Associated Press,June 23, 2012, available athttp://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/india-john-kerry-climate-change-93210.html.

48 Christopher Clary, The United States and India: A SharedStrategic Future (Washington: Council on Foreign Relationsand Aspen Institute, 2011), available at http://www.cr.org/india/united-states-india-shared-strategic-uture/p25740.

49 Ibid.

50 Juliet Eilperin, U.S., China Strike New Climate Agreement

at G-20 Summit, The Washington Post, September 6, 2013,available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/09/06/u-s-china-strike-new-climate-agreement-at-g-20-summit/.

51 Nitin Sethi and Karthik Subramanian, India Resisting Ameri-can Pressure on Phasing Out Rerigerant Gases, The Hindu,September 15, 2013, available at http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/india-resisting-american-pressure-on-phasing-out-rerigerant-gases/article5129712.ece; Nitin Sethi, Behind U.S. Heat on Fridge Gas Pact, Thirstor Markets, The Hindu, Sep tember 12, 2013, availableathttp://www.thehindu.com/news/national/behind-us-heat-on-ridge-gas-pact-thirst-or-markets/article5117524.ece?re=relatedNews.

52 Green Car Congress, US, China, and G-20 agree to work toglobal phase down o HFCs, September 6, 2013, available athttp://www.greencarcongress.com/2013/09/20130906-hcs.html; Earth Day Network, U.S., China and G-20 Countries

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53 Migration Policy Institute, Ten Source Countries with theLargest Populations in the United States as Percentages othe Total Foreign-Born Population: 2011, available at http://www.migrationinormation.org/datahub/charts/10.2011.shtml (last accessed September 2013); U.S. Citizenship andImmigration Services, Characteristics o H1B Specialty Oc-cupation Workers (U.S. Department o Homeland Security,2013); The White House, Remarks by Vice President JoeBiden on the U.S.-India Partnership at the Bombay StockExchange.
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61 Amiti Sen, India To Press US To Drop Immigrat

What to Expect from Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s U.S. Visit

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