What the Future Holds for CUs
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What Does The Future Hold for Credit Unions?
Mark Sievewright
President, Credit Union Solutions
Fiserv, Inc.
June 9, 2012
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Game Changers
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Business Modelers • Demographic Shifts
• Social Change
• Channels
• Payments
• Regulatory Change
• Lending Patterns
• Talent management
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Risks • Interest rates/inflation
• Unemployment
• U.S. housing market
• Sovereign Debt/EU instability
• Energy and commodity prices
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Social Change/
Demographic Shifts
Payments
Digital Era
“Mobiliti”
Business and Technology Trends Reshaping our Industry
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Now Then
Eastman Kodak’s “Moment”
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Blockbuster’s Kodak Moment
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The Evolution of Netflix – A Very Different “Kodak Moment”
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Consumers take control…….
Consumer Preference is Evolving
(Percentage of Population)
Bank Online 60%
Purchase Online 61%
Prefer Internet for Financial
Information 66%
Pay Bills Online 41%
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Untethered Interactions with Consumers and Businesses
425,000 ATMs 3,000,000,000
Devices
114,000 Branches
16,000 FIs
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Location, Location, Location
Technology, Technology, Technology
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Barnes & Noble’s – an “Almost Kodak Moment”?
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Key Insights on the Branch of the Future
Branches will remain a relationship cornerstone for acquiring and
retaining deposits and growing profitably.
Fewer transactions in branches - focus shifts to advice, loans and small
business services.
The implementation of self-service technology in branches will free branch
staff to spend more time with members.
Branches must be tightly integrated with other delivery channels, giving
members channel choice that best meets their needs.
Credit unions must focus on providing an outstanding experience in each
branch, by phone and on-line (including mobile)
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Social Change/
Demographic Shifts
Payments
Digital Era
“Mobiliti”
Business and Technology Trends Reshaping our Industry
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Social & Demographic Change
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Age Demographic Shifts in the U.S.A.
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The U.S. is undergoing rapid population aging
9.0 16.7 25.7 35.0 53.7 77.2
6.81%
9.24%
11.31%12.71%
16.53%
20.46%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
US Population 65+ (left axis) Percentage of US Population 65+ (right axis)
Number of people
(millions)
Source: Government reports
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We’re Living in the Age of Aging……..
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Generational Cohort Share of Population 18 - 65 by Year
Baby Boom
30%Baby Boom
20%
Gen Y
26% Gen Y
37% Gen Y
43%
WW II Gen. 1%
Baby Boom
39%
Gen X
32%
Gen X
33%
Gen X
34%
Gen Z 4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2015 2020
By 2020, nearly half of the U.S. adult population will have been born after 1981………
Total: 197.4 MM Total: 204.0 MM Total: 208.8 MM 0.7% CAGR 0.5% CAGR
Source: 2008 National Population Projections.
WW II Gen: Up to 1945 Baby Boom: 1946 to 1964 Gen X: 1965 to 1980 Gen Y: 1981 to 2001 Gen Z: After 2001
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Generation Next: These Guys are Different!
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459
TMI SIG2R N2M
ATEOD
MTF
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Important Millennial Behavior
• 39% Use debit card 15+ times/month
• 60% Bank and pay bills online
• 76% Use instant messaging
• 97% Have a Facebook profile or other social profile
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We Share. Post. Comment. Like. Download. IM. Text. Blog. eVite. Tweet. And re-Tweet.
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U.S. Social Network Usage
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Social Change
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1 in 8 couples married last year met online
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The Business of Social Networking….. Blockbuster News Today!
www.YouTwitFace.com
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Meet Ray’s Virtual Watercooler!
“With so much misinformation out there about where food
comes from and how it's produced, farmers have a responsibility
to speak up and set the record straight. And with social media,
they now have a tool to help them reach virtually anybody, anywhere.”
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Meet Jeff Fowle, Cattle Rancher and Twitter Guru!
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“When I installed pivot sprinklers on my
farm, I posted a tweet about it because
I felt it was important to show how
farmers and ranchers are continually
trying to improve water efficiency.”
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Bank of America
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Wells Fargo: Sample of Customer Service
1) Direct message (DM) sent from user to @Ask_WellsFargo. DM makes
private message only seen by Wells.
2) Wells Fargo rep responds directly to user within 20 minutes with
a number (direct to live person) and case #.
3) Wells Fargo rep follows up with user to ensure issue was addressed.
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Payments Feature Prominently for Social Media Users
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Among all respondents using at least one social networking site.
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Social Change/
Demographic Shifts
Payments
Digital Era
“Mobiliti”
Business and Technology Trends Reshaping our Industry
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Mobile Change
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Mobile Has Impacted Consumers’ Daily Habits More Deeply and More Quickly Than Most Expected
Blogs
IM/chat
SMS/Alerts
Music
Search
News Video
Mobile web
Games
Maps
Budgets Payment Commerce
Banking
Ticketing
Transit
Social
Pictures
Email/MMS
Organizer Voice
Communicate
Create Consume
Control
TV
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The evolution of computing changes everything…….
50
©2012 Javelin Strategy & Research
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Mobile Warming
Mobile Devices Enable Ubiquitous Access
U.S. Adults With Smart Phones
66%
Smartphone
adoption
by 2014
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Mobile Goes Mainstream – “Touch Banking”
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Evolution of Mobile Financial Services
• Info services
• Balances
• Transaction history
• Alerts
Mobile Banking Mobile Transactions Mobile Commerce
• Bill payments, ebills
• Account transfers
• Person to person
• Deposit capture
• Small business
• Point of sale
• Remote
• Offers and coupons
• Loyalty and rewards
• Stored-value cards
User Adoption/Time
Creates the foundation
to expose transaction
services
Gain consumer
confidence and
build behavior
patterns
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Thought for the Day
Within 10 years, service quality will be measured – to a large degree -
by how much self-service you provide your members
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Social Change/
Demographic Shifts
Payments
Digital Era
“Mobiliti”
Business and Technology Trends Reshaping our Industry
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Digital Transformation Is Fueling Electronic Payments
2009
46% 54%
2014
34%
66%
Electronic Cash and check
2004
61%
39%
11 Billion transactions shifting from paper to electronic in the
next five years
Source: First Annapolis Consulting 2009.
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The Durbin Affect
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The Durbin Affect
• Bank of America: • Interchange revenue fell from $1.494Bn in 3Q11 to $1.052Bn in 4Q11
• Wells Fargo: • Interchange revenue fell from $948M in 3Q11 to $611M in 4Q11.
• JPMC: • Interchange revenue fell by $263M on a sequential basis in 4Q11
• BB&T: • Interchange revenue fell from $208.4M in 3Q11 to $63.2M in 4Q11
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Thought for the Day
Within 10 years, the companies that comprise our competition will be
radically different from those of today
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Non-Traditional Players are Proliferating
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$865 billion in P2P payments
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Consumer-to-consumer
check payments
grow by 3% a year
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44 million U.S. children
$5 Billion industry
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Mobile and Website Payments = Revenue Opportunity
Revenue
Opportunity Monetise gets $5 for an expedited
mobile phone payment in the UK
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Paper or plastic? That's only part of the question.
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The Future of the Plastic Card?
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The Future of the Plastic Card?
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The Future of the Plastic Card?
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Mobile Payments Innovation
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Insight to action
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Thought for the Day
In the future, the information associated with a transaction could be more
valuable than the transaction itself
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Business Model
Change Capital Preservation
& Creation
A New Economy
- Slower Growth
Regulatory
Change
Risk & Fraud
Management Empowered
Consumers
Shifting
Demographics
Technological
Advances
Non-Traditional
Players/ New Entrants
Payments
Transformation
What are the critical challenges facing Credit Unions?
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Twin Strategies in the Digital Era
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Win in Electronic Payments
Develop & Optimize Channels
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What Does The Future Hold for Credit Unions?
Mark Sievewright
President, Credit Union Solutions
Fiserv, Inc.
June 9, 2012