What Russians think (evidence from various opinion surveys)

What Russians think(evidence from various opinion surveys)

Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

Nov 2008, New Delhi

Data

• Large-scale surveys of representative samples of Russian residents• RLMS (Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey),

10,000 respondents, Fall 2006• EBRD Life in Transition Survey (1,000 in each

transition country, 28 transition countries) Fall 2006

• GeoRating, Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), 35,000 respondents quarterly since 2003

Overall assessment of transition

4728

4253

61

1932

22 16 12

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 (13-24) 2 (25-35) 3 (36-47) 4 (48-60) 5 (61-100)

worsened did not change improved

How the economic and social changes of the last 15 years affected lives of people

% of population by age quintiles

Age group:

Total population:48.7%: “worsened”, 32.3%: “did not change”, 19%: “improved”

Source: RLMS, fall 2006

25%

34%39%

42%50%51%

56%61%59%

65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

How the economic and social changes of the last 15 years affected lives of people

(Effect of income)% of population, who claim that transition worsened their lives

by income decile

The poorest 10%

The richest 10%


Question framed without a link to reforms gives the same picture

57%

55%

52%

19%

23%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

I have done better in life than myformer colleagues in 1991

I life better now than before 1991

Most people live better now thanbefore 1991

do not agree agree

The rest of people are indifferentSource: RLMS, fall 2006

Wish for kids to grow up in the modern Russia rather than the USSR by age decile

19%24%

32%

74%80%

86%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

% of population who wish for kids to grow up in the modern Russia rather than the USSR by age decile:

(13-19) (71-100)

Total population: split 50%-50%


Attitudes towards market economy, private property, democracy, and the West

Uniquely low support of democracy and market among transition countries

Albania

Armenia Azerbaijan

Belarus

Bosnia

Bulgaria

Croatia

Czech Rep

Estonia

FYROM

Georgia

Hungary

Kazakhstan

Kyrgystan

LatviaLithuania

Moldova

Mongolia

Montenegro

Poland

Romania

Russia

Serbia

Slovak RepSlovenia

Tajikistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

.4.5

.6.7

.8d

emo

crac

y_su

ppo

rt

.3 .4 .5 .6 .7market_support

Source: EBRD Life in Transition survey, fall 2006

“market economy is preferable”

“de

moc

racy

is p

refe

rabl

e”Fraction of population who agree that:

What is the best form of governance for Russia?

51

39

10

21

70

9

28

66

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Democraticgovernment

Strong leader Don't know

per

cen

t 199120022005

Source: “Pew Global Attitudes” project

Price controls are immensely popular

80%

90%92%95%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

COMMUNALSERVICES

REAL ESTATE GAZ AND FUEL FOOD

% of population who think that the state rather than the market should set prices for the following goods and services:


State or market should provide medical care, roads, trash

collection… and employment?

5059

5045

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

MAINLY STATE

SUPPLYING EMPLOYMENT MEDICAL CARE

BUILDING ROADS COLLECTING TRASH


Younger people in large cities do not rely on the state to provide employment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5

both state and private

private

state

age quintiles (13-24) (61-100)

% of population in large cities

State or private firms should provide employment for people?


What (if anything) should be done with the majority of private

assets?

52

1315

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

leave withcurrentowners

leave withcurrent

owners, butmake them

pay

renationalizeand then

reprivatize

renationalize

% of population


In your opinion, what should be done with most privatized companies? They should be…

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Armenia

Russia

FYR_Macedonia

Moldova

Slovakia

Georgia

Bulgaria

Bosnia

Hungary

Croatia

Estonia

Poland

Belarus

Serbia

Mongolia

Romania

Montenegro

Latvia

Lithuania

Albania

Czech_Republic

Slovenia

Renationalized and kept in statehands

Renationalized and then re-privatized again using a moretransparent process

Left in the hands of current ownersprovided that they pay privatizedassets’ worth

Left in the hands of current ownerswith no change

Source: EBRD Life in Transition survey, fall 2006

There is lower support of renationalization among the young

% of population by age quintiles

13 833 29 19

7161534137

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5renationalize

renationalize and then reprivatize

leave with current owners, but make them pay

leave with current owners


Could there be understanding and cooperation reached

between…

0

10

20

30

40

surely possiblerather possiblein somecircumstances only

rather impossiblesurely impossible

the rich and the poor the simple people and the people with political power

People demand increased state involvement despite the fact that they think that cooperation with people in power is less feasible than even cooperation with the rich


What should be done in order to reduce income inequality in Russia?

4

4

25

25

28

29

41

45

45

2

4

0 10 20 30 40 50

INCREASE THE POWER OF UNIONS

ANOTHER REVOLUTION

SUBSIDIZE THE POOR

RENATIONALISE FIRMS

TAX THE RICH

ECONOMIC GROWTH

IMPROVE ACCESS TO EDUCATION

BETTER ENFORCE THE CURRENT LAWS

STATE PRICE REGULATION

NO NEED TO REDUCE INCOME DIFFERENCES

NOTHING CAN BE DONE

% of population, multiple answersPrice controls are the most popular policy measure to reduce wealth inequality


Importance of different institutions

1 is “not at all important”, 2 is “rather unimportant”, 3 is “yes and no”, 4 is “rather important”, and 5 is very important”

4.6

4.5

4.2

4.1

3.8

3.8

3.6

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

POLITICAL OPPOSITION

PROTECTION OF MINORITY RIGHTS

INDEPENDENT PRESS

FREEDOM OF SPEECH

FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS

JUST COURTS

LAW AND ORDER

On the scale from 1 to 5


“Is the Western society a good model for Russia?”

Source: FOM “GeoRating”

22%

30%

15%

7%

30%

27%

18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Certainlynot

Rather not Rather yes Certainlyyes

Difficult tosay

2004

2008

“Is the U.S. a friendly country?”

Source: FOM “GeoRating” 2003

18%

31%28%

4%

19%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Certainlynot

Rather not Rather yes Certainlyyes

Difficult tosay

Is US a friendly country?by age

.3.3

3.3

6.3

9.4

2.4

5U

S is

frie

ndly

, re

sid

ual a

fter

con

tro

llin

g fo

r in

com

e, e

duc

atio

n, g

en

der,

loca

ti

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100age


Do you think that...

27

57

15

39

23

38

0102030

40506070

Most people can betrusted

You cannot be toocareful in dealing with

people

Depends on who youare delaing with

2006

1991

General trust toward people


Trust towards organizations and certain groups of people

2.12.5

2.5

2.52.62.7

2.8

2.93.03.1

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

POLITICAL PARTIESFOREIGN BANKS

INSURANCE COMPANIESPOLICE

THE PARLIAMENTSMEs

COURTSRUSSIAN BANKS

THE CABINET OF MINISTERSARMED FORCES

1 is “completely distrust”, 2 is “rather distrust”, 3 is “neither trust nor distrust”, 4 is “rather trust”, and 5 is “completely trust”

On the scale from 1 to 5


Where do people get information (which may shape their views)?... TV

0 20 40 60 80 100

Foreign TV

Foreign Radio

Foreign Press

Internet

Russian Radio

Friends, colleagues, family

Russian Press

Russian TV

all sources of information used the main source of information

Summary • Approximately one half of Russians even

before the crisis (in 2006) were strongly– pro-state intervention into the economy and

anti-market– anti-US and anti-Western– anti-democracy and pro-strong leader

• Age and income help, but some of the effects are non-linear with very young looking more like older generation

What Russians think (evidence from various opinion surveys)

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