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Hi, and welcome to April’s What Really Wins Money. As you can probably guess I did not place a hefty sum on the Grand National winner, so I sup-pose it’s back to the keyboard.

We start this month with an update on the home grown betting systems, and a warning that high risk staking can bring good profits, but can also wipe out your betting bank short term.

Next, we look at how you never need to back an odds-on shot again, and yes, it looks like you could make a nice profit too. Hint: 2nd favourites are key.

It sounds like a dream come true for football punters, but it looks as if you could profit before a football is kicked in anger. Scalp trading is the key – that and a certain Shirley!

In-play betting markets are rife now, and it’s about time you maximised your returns. Why not delay your entry into the live betting markets and look for better value? It’s not as difficult as you think.

Speaking of delayed entry, waiting a week for these flat horses to run could have netted you 846 points profit in the last 10 years. The Statman shows it’s worth the wait.

And, this month The Patriarch is going old skool with a look at perms and the Placepot.

PS: Take a look at the box bottom right for an exclusive download of the latest WRWM reports for our subscribers...

Home-Grown Systems Updates

I hope, by focussing on my home-grown systems and updating monthly, to show you how an idea

progresses throughout the year, and whether it weathers the storm of both flat and jumps codes. So let’s get started...

NAPS 12/13

This system seeks to find which horse has been chosen by 12 or 13 writers in the Selection Box at each race meeting. The accompanying video will refresh your memory as regards all of these systems: www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage

From 7th November to 18th April, there have been 126 qualifiers, a 76% strike rate and a 13-point level stakes profit. I am a little reticent about putting forward some higher risk staking plans, largely due to the short odds that this little system produces.

An anomalous run and short odds can be disas-turous. So this simple system is ticking along and worth continuing with.

Price Gapper Lays

I am now recording these month by month. Using 5% stake and the Lay % Up Down aggressive stak-ing plan from www.stakingmachine.com, a profit of £11,000+ was produced for March. All very well, but are you comfortable staking £311 per lay? I suppose you will eventually be working with Other

Betting StrategiesNever Back Odds-on Ever Again!! ......................2Football TradingHow to Profit Before a Ball is Kicked Using Pre-Match Training .......................................................4Sports Trading StrategyDelay Your Entry for Increased Returns ...............7The Statman PresentsWhy Fitness Counts This Early in This Flat Season ......................................................8The PATRIARCH PresentsPlundering the Placepot ......................................10

April 2012 Volume 8 Issue 04

Inside this issue:

***** An Independent Review of Tipsters and Betting Systems *****

What Really Wins Money

Your exclusive WRWM reports, to access them go to:

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People’s Money. A more realistic % stake would be 2%, which produced a March profit of £4,700.

April has seen too many winners, and, to 2% stakes and the Lay % Up Down staking plan, we had to ride an initial loss of -£873 before a profit (at the time of writing) of £168. This epitomises what I said in March as regards this kind of staking. It’s either a blow out or a great profit depending on when you began using it – a run of 22 losses and only six winners in the last three days has really turned this around.

The more gentler Lay Hi Pro 86 would be stand-ing on a £70 loss for this month, and a £1,100 profit for March. Stakes are greatly reduced and the risk of the Lay % Up Down staking plan is neutralised at the expense of smaller profits.

Lay the fav last race of the day

I introduced you to this “urban myth” last month. So can we realistically profit?

One hundred and sixty one bets to date, a 73% strike rate, and – using fixed liability – a level stakes profit of 30 points has accrued. I think the origina-tors of this idea thought it would work, as favourites in the last race of the day can attract “desperation stakes” from hapless punters, thus theoretically pushing the price of the favourite down and allow-ing us to lay at decent odds.

I will take this through level stakes laying (to win a specific amount, rather than with fixed liability to lose a specific amount should the horse win) to see if it is viable long term.

Lay novice hurdle 3rd favourites

I introduced you to this idea in March, and an argument for a more aggressive staking plan to complement the high strike rate of this lay system. So how has it progressed?

This idea has taken a backward step in the inter-vening month to date, with the aggressive “Direc-tor’s” staking plan:

Evidently it is worth continuing with, using a fixed liability profit of 21 points. If we consider that we started the aggressive Director’s staking plan with a fixed liability stake of £10, then its perfor-mance to date, minus the recent blip, is impressive.

Those hating the roller coaster ride which inevita-bly comes when you are trying to risk more to make more, can stick with fixed liability laying. It’s safe, and profitable, but a very slow burner.

Bottom line: The profit accrues still. That said, you have been alerted this month to the vagaries of risky staking plans in the pursuit of quicker prof-its. Note the £870 loss for the Price Gapper lays in April, before a superb run of horses losing their races turned this into a £160 current profit. There are always less aggressive staking plans, which put less at risk but for a lower return. Do take a look at the video accompanying this article for a more detailed look at the performances. Note that I will be updating you on the HTB (hard to beat) lay idea from last month’s newsletter, in May’s WRWM.

Betting Strategies

Never Back Odds-on Ever Again!!

Now that sounds like a good idea! Imagine if we could profit long term while never needing to

back any odds-on shots at all.

Well, it is possible, and the simple solution seems to be to concentrate on 2nd favourites.

There’ll never be an odds-on shot when you’re It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018 All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 3, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5NF. Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040. Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ. Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No.

811 5700 64 © Copyright What Really Wins Money 2012

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backing 2nd favourites.

So, how can we back 2nd favourites in such a way that we can profit long term?

I think I have the solution and it came courtesy of a reader who forwarded me this idea, albeit a system without a title.

The idea was to back 2nd favourites at the meet-ing which had the 2nd highest prize money, on a ‘Stop at a Winner’ basis (SAW) using a specific staking plan.

And it has been working since my records began on 25th October 2011. A profit of £439 to £10 stakes is a good return for the period.

So here’s what you do.

The first thing to look for is the race meeting with the 2nd highest prize money for the day.

The quickest way to find this information is to look in the top left-hand corner of page 2 of the Racing Post, the newspaper version or online ver-sion (which I show below).

For the purposes of this exercise, ignore all Irish or other venues (Cork/Longchamp) and focus on the UK. Pontefract has £44K total prize money. Ffos Las and Windsor both have £28K prize money and are the meetings with the 2nd highest prize money.

I usually prefer a single meeting, but have been keeping records of days where we have two qualify-ing meetings, and so far both meetings have pro-duced a profit. Naturally you are increasing your risk by focussing on two meetings, but it seems, so far, that this has not damaged profits.

The meetings we will focus on in our example therefore will be Ffos Las and Windsor.

The idea is to back 2nd favourites at these venues on a Stop at a Winner basis, using the following staking plan. 1-1-1-2-2-2 where 1 is 1 point (and for the purposes of my record-keeping I have assigned

1 point £10). Race 1-1 point , Race 2 – 1 point, Race 3 – 1 point, Race 4 – 2 points, Race 5 – 2 points, Race 6 – 2 points.

Your maximum loss on a single day is 9 points if none of the 2nd favourites win. There is another staking plan for this idea, which I will report back to you on.

Finding the 2nd favourite...As you can appreciate, this is a live market betting

system, and we want to avoid the vagaries of co-favourites and so forth, but there is nothing stopping you placing the bet with the bookmakers.

“Back 2nd favourites Ffos Las 1st 6 races 1-1-1-2-2-2 points where 1 point is £10 STOP AT A WINNER.”

A little too verbose I think. I am sure your betting manager can slimline the wording!

Online, a visit to www.sportinglife.com, Racing, Live Shows will show you the 2nd favourite (simply the horse with the 2nd lowest odds). Alter-natively the Race Cards at www.racingpost.com will show you the odds of the race.

You must wait until race time and can place a stake independently if you wish, e.g. Race 1, we would back the 2nd favourite for 1 point. If he wins, we stop for the day. If he loses, we back the 2nd favourite in Race 2 for 1 point, and so on for six races.

Potential pitfalls...There will occasionally be races where there are

multiple 1st and/or 2nd favourites. On a couple of occasions there have been three 1st co-favourites. Of course, this means in real terms that the 2nd favourite is the 4th horse in the race, and he has a lesser chance of winning the race. I have personally left these races alone. This happens rarely though.

What do we do when there are multiple 2nd favourites in a qualifying race? I have simply halved my stakes and backed both 2nd favourites. If successful it does reduce our profit but has not adversely affected long-term profitability.

What if a racecourse abandons the meeting after 2/3 races? This happened on the 12th April at Folkestone, where the meeting was abandoned after three races. If following the racing indepen-dently, you would have found a winner in the 1st race and stopped for the day. If you had placed a

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bet with your bookmaker, I am sure it would have been voided as it would not have come to a natural conclusion.

Bottom lineThis method of backing 2nd favourites has prof-

ited well since October 2011. I will continue to monitor and also take it through another graduated staking plan which might eke out more profit. The 17th and 18th April, alas, saw losing days where we lost 18 points in total, which has taken a gloss off the profit figure.

On some 11 occasions, a winning 2nd favourite has come in the seventh race of the day. Our stak-ing plan currently only goes up to six races, and if the 2nd favourite has not won in that time, the day is declared a losing day. So I will tinker with stak-ing to include seventh races too as this could impact very positively on results. Where a losing day is currently a nine-point deficit, the inclusion of a sev-enth race would have reduced this deficit consider-ably on 11 occasions, and increased our final profits.

The accompanying video takes you through the idea with visuals, so do take a look: www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage

This is a strategy with distinct promise, and I’ll continue to monitor and refine it until hopefully we have a good long-term profit maker. As you can see, 2nd favourites can return a good profit because we will never be backing odds-on shots again!

Football Trading

How to Profit Before a Ball is Kicked Using Pre-Match Training

That’s the ideal situation for you footy lovers, isn’t it? Make a nice profit before a football

match has even kicked off!

Impossible, right?

Wrong! It is entirely possible.

It’s called Pre-match Trading.

So there is our qualifier for profiting before a match kicks off: it must involve trading. And trad-ing and Betfair go together.

And, it must involve Shirley!

All is revealed at www.prematchtrading.com, a service I have been monitoring during this foot-ball season. And Shirley? Well, she is a “football markets model based on probability theory and statistics”. Or in other words, Shirley looks at prices in liquid betting markets (such as bookmaker and spreadbetting markets) and calculates relevant prices in secondary markets, allowing Betfair users to spot “apparent” mispriced betting markets and profit on them before the match has kicked off.

Do take a look at http://tinyurl.com/cth3qap if this concept is new to you.

It does sound a little complicated at first, and that was an initial concern of mine. The guys behind www.prematchtrading.com did not, initially, sim-plify the process, but have since focussed on this area with a whole raft of videos and follow-up emails.

So what’s involved?Well, Shirley seeks to flag up betting markets at

Betfair which are “out of sync” with other betting markets. The idea is that Betfair’s independent bet-ting markets will likely fall in line with these other independent betting markets that Shirley monitors (be they bookmaker or spread betting markets).

And the betting markets that are used are the Over/Under 1.5 to 4.5 Goals markets, the Correct Scores markets, Next Goal markets, Half-time and Half-time Correct Score markets.

And the idea is to back or lay in these markets, as appropriate, an hour or so before kick-off, and wait for the market to hopefully come into alignment with other independent betting markets.

The goal is the green screen.

And guaranteed risk free bets before kick off such as these (see fig 1).

Potential pitfalls?I think that the whole concept will take a while

to be mastered by newcomers to trading on Betfair. Terms such as “Draw Inflation” may be off-putting to the novice.

Remember too, that what www.prematchtrad-ing.com are seeking to do is to “scalp” the betting markets. Scalping is effectively short-term trading, which is seen as low risk and looks to profit from

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Fig 1

Fig 2

Fig 3

Fig 4

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small price movements. Do take a look at this web-site for a good introduction to the concept of scalp-ing. http://tinyurl.com/d5rw9x4

One concern with scalping, which has admittedly been addressed at Prematch Trading, is that the reward to risk ratio is small. Relatively big stakes are required to generate small profits when scalp trading.

On the upside

The team behind www.prematchtrading.com know what they’re talking about. And with a chat-room facility, this enables discussion in real time on scalping opportunities in liquid football betting mar-kets on Betfair. I have also seen excellent webinars which all seek to increase our knowledge base.

The email alerts are excellent too. Here’s a break-down of a very recent one:

Shirley highlighted the fact that the 2-0 scoreline in this match was too high. So, 2-0 was backed at odds of 18 for £100. In the Betfair screenshot, you’ll see that a lay bet was placed at odds of 17.5 for £100 liability, and when matched, it produced a £50 guaranteed profit on 2-0 and break even on all other scorelines.

This epitomises what Prematch trading seek to do. They are not looking for a massive odds swing. 18 to 17.5 is all that is required to scalp trade success-fully. (See figs 2 and 3 on the previous page.)

There is an accompanying website too called www.drawinflation.com which seeks to scalp trade in the match odds market only. The advantage? You are pretty much guaranteed liquidity in the match odds markets for all major leagues and competi-tions. They currently offer a free week’s trial which, I’d suggest, you start on a Saturday.

The cost of joining www.drawinflation.com is as follows:

• One month – £29• Three months – £75• Six months - £126And for joining www.prematchtrading.com the

cost is:

• Two weeks – £20• One month – £39• Three months – £106• Six months – £191

Bottom line

For those interested in scalp trading the football markets, then www.prematchtrading.com and www.drawinflation.com are a superb starting point. I would personally advise those wishing to join that they gain a foundation of knowledge independently first.

Read up about scalp trading and Betfair, get to know the trading software (free software such as geekstoy is a must for scalp traders, or paid for software such as Fairbot from www.binteko.com is perfect).

Scalp trading and “ladder interfaces” go hand in hand. In fig 4 on the previous page there’s a ladder interface for the Leicester v West Ham match as I write.

The traditional betting market is below. As you can see, the format is different. The lay prices are in blue and the back prices in red (because I suppose it is the layers who are providing the prices for back-ers, and vice versa). I would advise mastering the ladder interface at www.geekstoy.com or by using Fairbot featured here, before getting involved in scalp trading.

Read the free content at www.prematchtradingcom and www.drawinflation.com and watch as many free videos as you can before committing funds.

Also ask yourself if you have the mentality for scalp trading. It is, by its very nature, a low risk method of trading and so offers little in the way of an adrenaline rush! Look at the 2-0 example earlier. A price move from 18 to 17.5 is adequate to pro-duce a free bet effectively on 2-0 (as an aside there is an option to spread the profit on all outcomes of course, and profit regardless of the score).

All in all, I think the guys at www.prematchtrading.com and www.drawinflation.com have produced two excellent scalp trading products for the low risk trader. With the Euros on our doorstep and Betfair increasing in liquidity daily, it is an ideal time to become a scalp trader and profit before a match has kicked off!

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Sports Trading Strategy

Delay Your Entry for Increased Returns

I want to introduce you to a concept which, as a natural by-product, will produce value bets.

I call it “delayed entry”. it’s a close relative of enhanced trading, and here’s what you do...

You, erm, delay your entry into any live in-play betting market in which you have considered plac-ing a bet.

Why?

Because, on numerous occasions, the odds at which you could have backed your fancy pre match increase dramatically during the match, even in the early parts of the match.

A couple of examples from the tennis spring to mind. Novak Djokovic was recently playing Alexandr Dolgopolov. Novak lost the first set 6-2 – unthinkable for the World Number 1 at Monte Carlo.

Backable at 1.04 pre match, you could have backed Djokovic at 1.32 mid first set, and 1.94 after he lost the first set. Now a 1.04 shot is not going to lose that often, believe me! And you are getting nearly evens for a 1/25 on shot! Any takers? No? Okay, then I will! Look at the graph below!

Djokovic began the match at the bottom left side of the graph at odds of 1.04. After the first set, he hit a high of 2 (evens). And when the screenshot was taken, the odds had reduced to 1.28.

So, while 1.04 is unbackable, 1.32 and 1.91 (£100 each) are backable for me given the tournament and given the player.

In a delayed entry bet, you can keep the bet going to finality, or as we are in-play, you have the trad-er’s option.

In the next match, 1.06 Djokovic was backable at 1.13 against Haase (yes, poor odds but really this is a doubling of the odds which occurred after about 10 minutes into the match).

Delayed entry can be used in ANY in-play market, preferably at Betfair (as trading then becomes an option).

Barcelona recently played an away match against Zaragoza. I delayed my entry here thinking I might get better odds with a concerted period of 0-0.

But no, Zaragoza decided to score. 1.14 Barcelona were available to back at 1.96 and during the mid period of the first half.

Steps to successFamiliarise yourself with in-play betting markets

on Betfair for a specific day.

The In-play planner at Betfair is ideally suited.

Now keep an eye out for the crème de la crème in their particular sporting arenas. We’re talking your Djokovics and Nadals, especially on clay (Andy Murray I am less than convinced with, the sulky Scot can throw the odd tantrum), Barcelona and Real Madrid in Spain, Manchester United... I hope

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you get the idea.

Make sure they are very well fancied in the bet-ting market. As you have seen above, Djokovic was backable at 1.04 and 1.06, Barcelona recently at 1.14.

Make sure you actually fancy the team/player. And make a note of times, and any facilities to enable you to monitor the price/score.

And delay entry. If you can get to back these shorties at nearly evens, you are manufacturing what I can only describe as value bets!

This need not end with ultra shorties. Bayern Munich recently were playing away at Werder Bremen. Bremen scored first, and Bayern did not score until the 75th and 90th minutes. This was a must win for Bayern, and they obliged eventually:

Follow this ruleThe longer the delay, the better the price in-play.

The longer you wait to back a team/player you fancy, and as long as the match is in play, the better the price will be. You’ll recall Chelsea’s recent per-formance against Wigan: 1-1 until a Mata winner in the 90th minute.

If you fancied Chelsea initially pre match, why not back them in the 85th minute at much better odds and just hope for the best! Only just recently, Milan were hosting Bologna and were 0-1 down until an Ibrahimovic equaliser in the 90th minute. If you had fancied Milan at home (and why not), then why not back them, or lay Bologna in the 85th minute in the hope they salvage something?

So remember: the longer the delay, the better the price!

Bottom lineDelayed entry is a great concept you should

employ if your fancied bet occurs in an IN-PLAY betting market, be it with the bookmaker or Betfair. You can back at far better odds and keep as a bet, or if using Betfair, trade at the greater odds.

There are many, many examples on a daily basis of how delayed entry can make you profit. And remember, we don’t need to specifically delay entry into only the Match Odds market. In football, for example, you can delay entry into goals markets if you think the 2nd half will see goal action.

Delayed entry and its uses is only limited by your

creativity. You could also use the concept for horse racing.

The Statman Presents

Why Fitness Counts This Early in This Flat Season

As the flat season gets going in earnest, us punt-ers can be confused with all the changes from

one season to another. Those who blindly followed Silvestre De Sousa or Paul Hanagan now find themselves backing horses trained by Godolphin or owned by Sheik Hamdan Al Maktoum since the new riding arrangements, and who knows what those changes will do for the strike rates or odds, and what effect their losses will be to the likes of Mark Johnston and Richard Fahey? My point is that trainer/jockey combinations are suddenly a bit of a mess and for now we need to tread carefully on that score and look elsewhere for a more logical way of finding a few extra winners.

Personally, I have always found the first few months of the new turf season a bit of a balancing act between the better form of those who have had the winter off, versus the massive fitness advantage of those who have been kept going on the all-weather. So this month I decided that a good long (and even detailed) look at what the fitness advan-tage of a recent racing could have, and whether that varied by age or sex or race type – so here we go!

Firstly, we have to set some kind of boundaries to start from. I am not and never have been a racehorse trainer (I wish), so what is a sensible period since a last race when considering if a horse is fit or not? I was brought up with the figure of 28 days embedded in my mind but when you think about it that seems far too long. I could be fit as a fiddle today (and we are talking personally), but give me access to a few cream cakes and chocolate and within a week or so I would be the size of a house. My 13-year-old son plays football, but give him a fortnight without match fitness and he starts running out of puff just like the rest of us. So have we had it wrong all these years? I know horses won’t be fed like that or miss training but race fitness is a different issue, so I have decided seven days is as good a place to start as any... and this is how the stats panned out...

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Attempt One – all horses running within 7 days or less of their last run in the months of May and June each year over the past 10 yearsNumber of Number of Winning Profit/Loss ROI SP Profit/Loss ROI Betfair SP runners Winners Strike Rate SP (£1 stake) Betfair SP (£1 stakes) 18218 2133 11.71% -£3479.60 -19.1% £62.78 0.34%

As expected from “step one”, not a lot learnt at this early stage but there is light at the end of the tunnel (hopefully), and it is time to apply a long list of new filters to see what changes we can make with the rather obvious aim for an increase in profits to make the whole thing worthwhile! What if we looked at colts and fillies separately, does that tell a different story?

Attempt Two – Colts and Geldings onlyNumber of Number of Winning Profit/Loss ROI SP Profit/Loss ROI Betfair SP runners Winners Strike Rate SP (£1 stake) Betfair SP (£1 stakes) 13229 1562 11.81 -£2629.59 -19.88% -£378.87 -2.86%

Attempt Three – Fillies and Mares onlyNumber of Number of Winning Profit/Loss ROI SP Profit/Loss ROI Betfair SP runners Winners Strike Rate SP (£1 stake) Betfair SP (£1 stakes) 4989 571 11.45 -£850.01 -17.04% £404.25 8.1%

How about if we looked at horses ages next – what if we discount juveniles (two year olds), and only looked at the older horses aged three and above?

Attempt Four – Colts and Geldings aged three and above onlyNumber of Number of Winning Profit/Loss ROI SP Profit/Loss ROI Betfair SP runners Winners Strike Rate SP (£1 stake) Betfair SP (£1 stakes) 2571 315 12.25 -£637.65 -24.8% -£256.22 -9.97%

Attempt Five – Fillies and Mares aged three and above onlyNumber of Number of Winning Profit/Loss ROI SP Profit/Loss ROI Betfair SP runners Winners Strike Rate SP (£1 stake) Betfair SP (£1 stakes) 2082 250 12.01 -£250.01 -12.02% £380.79 18.29%

Once again, the figures point towards the female of the species so I will focus there, and have a look at them by age to see if that makes the blindest bit of difference...

Attempt Six – Aged three only Number of Number of Winning Profit/Loss ROI SP Profit/Loss ROI Betfair SP runners Winners Strike Rate SP (£1 stake) Betfair SP (£1 stakes) 1511 167 11.05 -£229.37 -15.18% £288.53 19.1%

Attempt Seven – Aged four onlyNumber of Number of Winning Profit/Loss ROI SP Profit/Loss ROI Betfair SP runners Winners Strike Rate SP (£1 stake) Betfair SP (£1 stakes) 1187 119 10.03 -£390.09 -32.86 -£245.02 -20.64%

Attempt Eight – Aged five onlyNumber of Number of Winning Profit/Loss ROI SP Profit/Loss ROI Betfair SP runners Winners Strike Rate SP (£1 stake) Betfair SP (£1 stakes) 740 94 12.7 £6.60 0.89% £288.92 39.04%

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Attempt Nine – Aged Six and above onlyNumber of Number of Winning Profit/Loss ROI SP Profit/Loss ROI Betfair SP runners Winners Strike Rate SP (£1 stake) Betfair SP (£1 stakes)

980 108 11.02 -£216.31 -22.07% -£27.12 -2.77%

So, we have now filtered down a little to find that the easiest way (if not the most profitable) is to back five-year old mares who have run within the last seven days or less, but can we do any better given a few more filters? I looked at reducing the days (surprisingly this made little or no difference, though one and two day absences do not seem to be long enough for a horse to recover and were both financial disasters), so then I looked at the different courses as well. Would a stiff track make the most of any fitness advantage our horses may have, or will that be factored in to the starting prices?

Having searched around the Internet (after all, it is subjective), the following courses came up as stiff or had uphill finishes – surely they would expose those

with fitness problems, and exaggerate the advantage held by a horse with a recent outing?

As my primary focus ought to be on the flat at this time of year, the courses I used were as follows, though I confess I have deleted the unprofitable courses – after all, why waste your time?

AscotBeverleyHamiltonNewcastleNewmarket (Rowley mile)Salisbury

And the story they told was interesting again:

Using all horses (any sex) at all ages over and including three, the results for these specific course are as below:Course Number of Number of Winning Profit/Loss ROI SP Profit/Loss ROI Betfair SP Runners Winners Strike Rate SP (£1 stakes) Betfair SP (£1 stake) Ascot 206 15 7.28% -£4.60 -2.23% £58.43 28.37%Beverley 428 57 13.32% £18.07 4.22% £193.76 45.27%Hamilton 691 90 13.02% -£82.54 -11.95% £72.61 10.51%Newcastle 568 65 11.44% £25.72 4.53% £247.68 43.61%Newmarket 448 51 11.38% -£11.00 -2.46% £76.21 17.01%Salisbury 309 25 8.09% £0.74 0.24% £197.07 63.78%

So, if we follow every horse at that short list of tracks who has run in the past seven days we would have made a profit of 845.76 points in 10 years – or 84.6 points a year. Not, in my opinion, to be sniffed at when compared to a lot of systems out there!

Of course, I could go on (and usually do), but the evidence seems pretty clear to me – horses that have raced within the last seven days (but not the last two days) have a fitness advantage at stiff courses or ones with uphill finishes. Sadly, bookmakers are aware of that and build it into their pricing structure BUT following those horses at Betfair SP shows profit year after year especially when backing the ladies of our sport (horses not jockeys), and I will revisit this concept in the future to see if there are any other influences that need to be taken into consideration (going, jockeys, trainers, etc) – but that is all something for another day!

Thanks to Sean there. If you want help in spotting these qualifiers, then do look at the accom-panying video: www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage

The PATRIARCH Presents

Plundering the Placepot

Here’s something I can’t remember being cov-ered in WRWM before, and since it fits in

neatly with our current interest in each-way betting, I thought it could be worthy of our consideration. It’s a very popular bet – the Placepot. I first came across it some years ago now in my local betting shop (I used to go there then, not like now when I stick to my laptop) when betting acquaintances kept

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coming up to me and telling me about their wins on this new bet – the Placepot. As these weren’t your annoying betting shop braggarts who were always backing imaginary 50-1 winners I listened to them and paid heed to this new bet. It has con-tinued to please its devotees ever since, and with good reason. For instance, that one bet can give you an interest in the whole afternoon’s (or evening’s) racing. So for anyone who’s not too sure about how it works I’ll explain it all now – along with some advice on how best to approach it.

Placepots great attraction is that you don’t have to find winners, just placed horses, and that is much, much easier. The rules for placing are the same as for ordinary place bets: with four runners or less in the race you have to find the winner, with five, six or seven you have two places, with eight or more there are three places and with handicaps of 16 runners or more you get four places. The Placepot operates at all meetings and is based on the first six races on the card. The minimum stake is £1. These are the basic facts of the bet.

Now comes my first bit of advice. Since there are plenty of meetings to choose from you can afford to be selective. Don’t, therefore, choose any meeting that has a race or races with four or fewer runners, because then you’ll have to find a winner. If you’re looking to use just the one meeting per day (and you really should concentrate on just the one), then select a meeting that has the most races with eight, nine or 10 runners. If that still doesn’t narrow it down to just the one meeting then include 11 run-ners or 12 until you have your meeting.

I’m not going to tell you how to make your place selections, as you’ll clearly have ideas of your own, but I will say this: as far as possible stay away from selecting favourites. Most punters naturally go for favourites and if all six are placed, or even five (as does happen), then the dividend is hardly worth winning. Because it is a pool bet, like the lottery, then the more people that are successful then the smaller will be the share of the pool. And when mainly the less fancied horses are placed then the dividend can be big.

It would be a brave punter who would rely on a single line of six selections for his entry with his stake of £1 or upwards, but if you’re feeling con-fident then go ahead and try it. The dividend is declared to a stake of £1 a line so bear that in mind when calculating any winnings. Most Placepot

punters will use a permed entry something like this.

Suppose you’re quite confident of your selection to be placed in the first race, are not so sure in the next three races, quite sure about race 5, but very doubtful about race 6. So you might have a single choice in race 1, two choices for the next three races, one selection again in race 5 and then three for race 6. As a perm that would be 1 by 2 by 2 by 2 by 1 by 3, or 24 lines in total at whatever stake you wish. If you decide to have two choices in every race then that would be 2 by 2 by 2 by 2 by 2 by 2, or 64 lines altogether. At 25 pence a line, for example, that entry would cost £16 or at 10 pence a line it would be £6.40. Remember also that if you have two (or more) placed in the one race then that can multiply up the number of winning lines you may have. For example, if you managed to get two selections placed in two separate races then you could have four winning lines. At 25p a line that would be the same as one line at the £1 dividend. At 10p a line your winnings could be four tenths of the £1 declared dividend. Although initially the Placepot was a Tote-only bet it is now licensed to all the major bookmakers so you can place your bet with any of them on an easy-to-enter slip that is on display in all their shops.

You may think that is the end of the story for the Placepot, but no, there is quite an interesting sequel. Let’s say you’ve made your Placepot entry, are feeling quite confident about getting a return and are looking forward to following your bets for the rest of the afternoon. But then disaster strikes. Something happens in the first race, or the second, that knocks your well-thought-out plan for six. Fear not, for all is not lost. There is another bet called the Quadpot that operates like a Placepot on races 3, 4, 5 and 6. So you now have the opportunity to enter what was left of your Placepot on these remaining races, or change it altogether for a new attempt. Whatever you do you can now have a place entry for the four remaining races. The dividend for the Quadpot is naturally smaller than that for the Place-pot but can still be well worth the winning.

The accompanying video will highlight where you can place a Placepot bet, and how to calculate permutations: www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage

P.S. A quick mention of Cheltenham last month. My idea of finding a winner at 40-1 or upwards was successful again this year and we didn’t have to

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endure too long a wait for it. On the second day in the fifth race Une Artiste won for Nicky Henderson (again) at the required 40-1.

Reviews

The Cash Master’s Systems and Tipsters Update

No less than 11 reviews and updates for you this month. All past reviews can be found over at:

http://www.cash-master.com/blog

Beaumonts BetsI think you can predict by now that this is going

to be yet ANOTHER positive update for the Beau-monts Bets service. How does he do it?

First off, the results for March. Well, a lot of sys-tems and services really struggled over March and BB was no exception, this time only notching up a profit of 36 points.

Er, yes, ONLY 36 points.

Just to remind you, here are the monthly totals so far:

August: 88.98September: 95.55October: 117.69November: 97.10December: 55.10January: 23.10February: 45.37March: 36.39Total: 559.28 points (£27,964)

So it only managed a 45% increase in the 80 point bank in March but then, as Paul said, it was a “slow”month.

Obviously, he continues to overdeliver on his promises but not only are the results impressive, he has also come up with a new variation on the already very low risk back/lay 75% staking method and the results of this new variation are very inter-esting indeed...

Here’s what he says about it:

“I have been looking at a different way of using

B/L 75% because there are a couple of scenarios in the current version I am not happy with. In short, I want more, for instance:

If a horse drifts and wins, I want to win because I have picked the winner (not unreasonable, I think).

If a horse is backed off the boards but loses, I want to win because I have beaten the market.

The new variation means that both of those scenar-ios will make money. It doesn’t come for free though (does anything?) because, in order to achieve this, some of the winnings when a horse is backed in and wins have to be sacrificed.

However the second aspect of this variation that appeals to me is the absolute rock bottom risk factor involved such that, in my opinion, a 50 point operat-ing bank is more than sufficient.

The third aspect that appeals is that, I feel, anyone will be able to get results much closer to mine than some are able to at the moment.”

Using this method, with a 50-point bank, the month of March achieved a profit of 34.88 points which is almost a 70% return!

Paul has made a page on the site that explains the method here: http://tinyurl.com/cun2x5z

Check out the latest testimonials too, there are some very happy campers doing rather well out of Paul’s service.

Finally, Paul has also created a new video, this time from his new home in Lanzarote, which is well worth a watch and is on the main home page. I have scoffed at the quality of the production, but it’s the content that counts, and Paul is a man certainly worth listening to – if you want to actually make your betting pay that is.

Check it out here: http://www.beaumontsbets.com

Total Tennis TradingThis is a one-off review of Total Tennis Trading, a

product from the same stable as the approved Total Football Trading.

The package consists of eight different trading strategies and costs $77 (roughly £50), so expen-sive this isn’t! Each strategy appears well thought out and there is also a guide on factors to consider should you want to develop your own strategies.

One thing you may need to consider is the times

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that Tennis tends to be played. During the summer, many tennis matches are played during the after-noon and early evenings. These are trading strate-gies, so you need to be able to watch the ebb and flow of the odds movements. Later the scene moves to the US, but this will mean some late nights, and very early mornings when the Australian tourna-ments are being played.

As stated above, there are eight different strate-gies: three for beginners, two for intermediate traders and 3 for advanced traders. Most of these strategies appear to me to be (very) different form the TradeShark Tennis Ttrading strategies.

The beginners’ strategies have been around a while, but there are some new angles introduced here that should make them worthwhile. I have seen one of the advanced strategies before too. Please do not misunderstand me, I play “Lay The Draw” in football and still do well even though people con-tinue to tell me that this strategy no longer works! That some of these strategies have been around a while does not devalue them!

I like the way each strategy is presented. You get the logic behind the strategy, clear instructions on how to select a qualifying match followed by clear instructions on entry and exits, including stop loss. Each strategy is also supported with examples.

There’s a section on staking and money manage-ment too. If you are new to trading then you will need to Google some articles on trading psychology though. Having the correct trader’s psychology is a major component in being a consistently successful trader!

So, a set of what appears to be well-thought-out strategies, one or more which should suit you if you want to get into tennis trading. I am happy to APPROVE this on that basis.

You can get Total Tennis Trading here: http://totaltennistrading.com

Racing Winners

Here’s an update on Racing Winners for the last six weeks based on a starting bank of £500 at BSP odds.Date Time Course Horse Odds Res. Bank1st Mar 4.30 Ludlow So Happy Harry 17.30 6th £4902nd Mar 2.55 Newbury Marodima 4.10 3rd £4802nd Mar 4.15 Doncaster Time Out 4.20 1st £5116th Mar 4.50 Newcastle Trustan 3.76 3rd £5017th Mar 3.30 Fontwell Current Climate 4.81 1st £5398th Mar 3.15 Carlisle Sir Tamburlane 12.50 2nd £529

12th Mar 2.40 Stratford On Gossamer Wings 5.11 3rd £51912th Mar 4.20 Taunton Father Probus 4.20 3rd £50916th Mar 3.35 Fakenham The Laodicean 3.50 3rd £49919th Mar 2.30 Southwell King Jack 4.43 1st £53319th Mar 3.00 Southwell Heavenly Chorus 10.50 3rd £52321st Mar 2.10 Haydock Atherstone Hill 6.20 PU £51321st Mar 3.50 Haydock Tom O’Tara 8.68 6th £50322nd Mar 4.05 Carlisle Kaybeew 13.0 1st £62323rd Mar 5.10 Sedgefield Endeavor 9.28 UR £61127th Mar 2.20 Market Rasen Theodore Lamb 9.60 1st £71427th Mar 2.50 Market Rasen D’Gigi 9.37 4th £70028th Mar 3.20 Ludlow Esteem 3.95 4th £68628th Mar 3.40 Taunton Be Kind 50.0 5th £67229th Mar 3.45 Newcastle Fred Bojangals 11.50 4th £65829th Mar 4.00 Ffos Las Arturo Ono 7.40 4th £64530th Mar 2.40 Wetherby Global Flyer 3.69 1st £68030th Mar 3.50 Wetherby Viable 42.0 5th £6672nd Apr 3.30 Kelso Soul Magic 5.22 3rd £6542nd Apr 5.00 Kelso Seedless 10.0 5th £6413rd Apr 3.10 Fontwell River D’Or 7.60 1st £7263rd Apr 4.30 Sedgefield Bellflower Boy 7.20 2nd £7124th Apr 2.50 Exeter Leopard Hills 7.67 4th £6984th Apr 3.10 Hereford Share Option 15.50 4th £6845th Apr 4.00 Wincanton Earth Planet 3.81 2nd £6705th Apr 4.20 Ludlow Dubai Crest 8.0 3rd £6569th Apr 4.10 Yarmouth Dubai Sunshine 6.42 6th £6439th Apr 4.25 Fakenham Emperor’s Choice 3.25 1st £672

This would have given you a return of 34 points based on Betfair starting odds over the past six weeks.

You can try Racing Winners here: http://www.racing-winners.co.uk

Matchday Profits

All bets are on football, across various markets, from corners to number of goals scored.

Each bet is given to 10 points.

To save my time and yours, I am not even going to bother listing all the bets since I last posted about this.

We had a loss of -2.47 points from trial starting to end of January.

Feb lost a further 5 points, March went on to lose 42 points, and April is -1 point to date.

Wins are talked up, losses glossed over, and the tips range over a whole host of leagues and markets (overs, corners, handicap bets, multi bets, etc).

I am afraid this has to be a FAILED service.

You can try Match Day Profits here: http://www.matchdayprofits.com

The Bet Plan

A final update for this.

The level stakes now stands at -34.22 points and it is finally time to knock this one on the head.

Last year it made a good profit, turning £200 into

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£25,000 – or did it? The results stopped at 11th December on the website, as after this the whole £25,000 would have gone in the remaining days of December.

So to this year. We started with a £200 ratchet bank and a level stakes bank. The ratchet bank went by the 22nd of January! We battled on to level stakes thinking it would turn around, yet the losses continued.

A couple of other things bother me about this service:

No results update for this year since 2nd Jan as we have never been in profit.

Each day a comment after the previous day, like “1 out of 2 yesterday, onto today”. But it is still a loss when the winner was odds on!!

I have given this more than long enough to turn it around but now it has to be filed under FAILED.

You can try The Bet Plan here: http://thebetplan.com

Cash Flow Football

A one-off review of Cash Flow Football.

This football trading system comes from the same stable as the Smart Racing Trader and Betfair Suc-cess Formula systems that I have reviewed recently and I’m sad to say that it unfortunately is more akin to the latter than the former, in that it is a re-hash of a very well established technique – which is a bit of a shame as I’m really quite keen on Smart Racing Trader.

This is a very simple method (not L.T.D.) that vir-tually all football traders will be very familiar with and, other than the selection criteria being slightly different, there’s nothing new to be gained here.

On the positive side, it is well written and easy to follow. The selection criteria are logical and, although I think some of the staking advice is a little aggressive (you are talked through the pros & cons of this), I’m certain that if you followed this system you would make a profit.

You can easily forgive things for being twists on existing ideas; old does not automatically mean bad. The wheel has been around for a while and it’s still pretty decent as design ideas go. The big issue here is that at a price of £70 and with a No Refunds policy, it’s just not good value for money.

I reviewed a trading package last year called “Total Football Trading” (see Approved Systems List on www.cash-master.com/blog) and this method is included in that package. Granted, there are slightly different match selection criteria (not hugely different) but other than that it’s the same tried and trusted method.

T.F.T. contains a total of 10 trading methods and costs less than Cash Flow at around £65. I would suggest that anyone wanting to get into trading, or to find some new filters and stop-loss methods to improve their existing arsenal of trading plans would be much better served buying T.F.T than Cash Flow because, as previously mentioned, you get 10 methods including the one under review here and you’re therefore effectively only paying £6.50 for it compared to £70 for Cash Flow.

I think that NEUTRAL is the right rating for this one. I’m not going to approve it for the reasons given above but a failed would be overly harsh as the method does work, it’s just not good value for money when weighed against other products.

You can get Cash Flow Football here: http://www.cashflowfootball.com/cm.htm

Early Bird Horse Racing System

In a similar vein to a recent review I posted for the Cash master blog (Risk Free Trading) I have recently been following another offering to the risk free/low risk, profit making market – Early Bird Racing.

This is available at an irresistible £34.99 with a 60-day money back guarantee via ClickBank.

The eBook provides you with a 16-page overview of how the system operates and refreshingly only two of these pages are given over to explaining how to use the Betfair betting exchange.

The system is simplicity itself and, as the title sug-gests, requires that you take early prices using one or two selected bookmakers the night before. The following day simply lay off the selections at a time to suit and hopefully you will have bagged yourself a small (compared to the back stake placed), but easy “risk-free” profit.

Also provided in the purchase is a nice spread-sheet package – that makes the staking options dev-ilishly simple – and a handy facility to enable you to overlay/underlay your lay stake. This is a neat idea that enables those with a strong gambling instinct to

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take a punt on any race and yet, still have a win/win situation. So, if your selection has steamed since backing it the night before (if you “underlay” the lay stake) and the selection wins, you take a larger profit; if it loses you will still make a modest profit. This works the other way too, so if, for example, the selection is no longer favourite and you believe its chances are not significant against other opponents/factors – you can “overlay”, enabling you to take a bigger profit if it loses and less if it wins!

The two final pages illustrate how the author made over £1,200 in a month between June and July of last year (using £100 stakes). Impressive stuff, con-sidering the risk to the bank is minimal!

Following a simple selection criteria, the inten-tion is to find horses whose prices are perceived to steam overnight/the following day as more money in the market gets piled onto your selection. This can of course work the other way with the selection occasionally going against the grain and drifting out. Using the spreadsheet supplied, the method explains how to remove yourself from any poten-tially dangerous situation, meaning that you will take a loss albeit a modest one that won’t have you losing sleep. In this particular situation, the spread-sheet will enable you to calculate and, if necessary, underlay your lay stake to avoid making a loss on both outcomes, instead making a loss on one, i.e. if selection wins: £0.00 profit, if selection loses: £x loss.

It is suggested that you stick to a particular time each day to place your lay stakes “en bloc”. If you do this, you will have to take whatever price is offered at that time, which clearly may not be the most profitable time to lay the selection off. The author’s own results do show that he took prices at times that were wholly dependent upon how soon the first race of the afternoon occurred. This may be too variable for most, and unless you are very time aware (which I am not), you could miss your opportunity and potentially miss placing your lay trade completely. Clearly, this is something to be avoided at all costs as you will be “exposed” when the race(s) start/s.

Taking lay prices nearer to the off is preferred as you will be better placed to avoid situations where non-runners are declared. In the event of a favourite being “pulled”, the bookmakers will change their offered prices to reflect this significant change to the outcome of the race, in order to stay one step

ahead. If “Rule 4” applies to a particular race, simply enter the % reduction factor in the corre-sponding cell of the spreadsheet and the required lay stake to complete your trade is calculated for you! Clearly, if you take an earlier lay price and a favourite or other leading selection is “pulled” closer to the start – having already “traded-out”, means that you are likely to be in a possible loss-making situation, although any damage should be minimal.

One thing I did notice on occasion was that the weight of money available at the time of placing your lay stake on Betfair may not be sufficient to ensure you are fully matched, and you could find that getting out of a trade means your lay stake is spread over a range of increasing prices. This sce-nario, could wipe out any profit you may have taken had the single price offered had sufficient money behind it to cover all of your back bet in the first place. Alternatively, you wait until there is more liquidity in that particular race – closer to the start, taking a further chance that the price moves in your favour or possibly further against you.

I found that on a number of days during the last few weeks that I have been using this system there were no “qualifying” early prices to take advantage of which is key for this system to operate. So don’t expect every day to be a racing / profit-making one.

The only thing that I can see being the real gamble with this method is the selection process itself. I don’t fully understand the underlying reason behind it. However, if the author’s practical results are to be believed in their entirety, the selection process is sound (this was also proved with the results I obtained). It is claimed that he had no situations where his selections’ early prices moved against him into a potential loss-making situation. All wins reported in his results show the prices steaming, during his very profitable month when making £1,200. For this review, I achieved the following results as shown below:

Results/backing to £100 stakes:

13 days racing covered

33 selections

26 selections steamed making a profit of £518

7 selections drifted: £170 loss

Overall profit/ including 5% Betfair commission of: £348.

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Pros:

1. A simple, low-risk system to operate.

2. Overlay/underlay option adds a real “fun” element to working this method.

3. Trades complete prior to racing starts – com-fort knowing that your position is covered regardless of the outcome of the race.

4. You decide when to use the method, i.e. you can dip in and out at will as your day dictates.

Cons:

1. Using a fixed time each day to trade out will not be the best option for securing the best prices – so will need to be variable, which could be inconvenient for most people.

2. Depending upon your staking and frequency of use, this will require moving sums of money between bookies and Betfair accounts on a regular basis.

3. You have to be sufficiently regimented in your routine to check the early race prices for the following day, the night before at around 9pm.

I have to give this method the proverbial thumbs up as I found it to be a genuinely fun system to use with the staking made simplicity itself with the clever spreadsheet included in the deal. For £35, and – provided you follow the rules – you WILL cover the purchase price in a very short space of time. If your betting has suffered a little fatigue of recent months/ years – treat yourself to this gem and realise the fun that can be had playing the markets and genuinely making a good profit in the process.

You can get the Early Bird Horse Racing System here: http://www.cash-master.com/earlybird.php

To access this month’s final four Cash Master reviews go to: www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage

Publisher Recommends

“Finally a PROVEN Betting Service That’s Delivered Low-risk Profits Every Year for the Last 5 Years…”Why spend time and effort trying to find a

needle in a haystack winner when you can make up to £9,752.00 in the next 12 months with this simple lay strategy…

Kevin Lane is the man behind the massively suc-cessful Lay Profit Alert, and he really knows his stuff (he has had over 23 years of practice after all). You see, to profit from laying horses on the bet-ting you need an approach that is slightly out of the ordinary… and judging by the results Kevin has certainly mastered that…

Just look at the recent performance of his system:

Since 2010, a £1000 starting bank now stands at an impressive £35,500. And we are still risking the same percentage of our betting bank relatively speaking.

So, what’s involved?

Kevin sends out an email alert each morning con-taining around 4 or 5 lays... all you have to do is go to Betfair, and place your bets according to Kevin’s staking plan. It’s a quick process that shouldn’t take longer than 10 minutes and all you’ll need is a computer with Internet access and a Betfair account.

Profiting each year since its launch in 2007, LPA has consistently delivered year on year returns. It’s a great low risk long-term profit maker. And with 3 months to trial the service, it’s low risk all the way to the betting bank!

Find out more at www.trylayprofit.com or see the insert enclosed in this issue.

Highly recommended,

Regards

Nick Laight

Don’t forget your exclusive WRWM reports, to access them go to:

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