What of the future? Gabriel Martinez, Ph.D. Ave Maria University August 2007 14,000 3.4% 0.6%
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Transcript of What of the future? Gabriel Martinez, Ph.D. Ave Maria University August 2007 14,000 3.4% 0.6%
![Page 1: What of the future? Gabriel Martinez, Ph.D. Ave Maria University August 2007 14,000 3.4% 0.6%](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/56649efa5503460f94c0c4cd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
What of the future?
Gabriel Martinez, Ph.D.
Ave Maria University
August 2007
14,000
3.4%
0.6%
![Page 2: What of the future? Gabriel Martinez, Ph.D. Ave Maria University August 2007 14,000 3.4% 0.6%](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/56649efa5503460f94c0c4cd/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Dow Jones Industrial Average
10000
12000
14000
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07
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Volatility Index
0
10
20
30
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07
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Value of the DollarValue of the Dollar
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2000 2002 2004 2006
Yen for 1 Dollar Euro for 1 Dollar Trade-Weighed
% I
ncre
ase
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
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Real Gross Domestic Product
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
% G
row
th
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Interest Rates
0
2
4
6
819
99
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Area 4 2-year Treasury
10-year Treasury Fed Funds
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Global Growth Projections
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007 2008
US Europe Japan Latin America
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0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 Aug-19 Aug-21 Aug-23 Aug-25 Aug-27
Implied probability
SEPTEMBER FOMC MEETING OUTCOMES
4.25%
5.00%
5.25%
5.50%
4.75%
4.50%
(Advance) Durable goods report, New home sales
Existing home sales
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0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Aug-06 Aug-09 Aug-12 Aug-15 Aug-18 Aug-21 Aug-24 Aug-27
Implied probability
OCTOBER FOMC MEETING OUTCOMES
4.25%
5.00%
5.25%
5.50%
4.75%
4.50%
(Advance) Durable goods report, New home sales
Existing home sales
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0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Aug-06 Aug-09 Aug-12 Aug-15 Aug-18 Aug-21 Aug-24 Aug-27
Implied probability
DECEMBER FOMC MEETING OUTCOMES
5.00%
5.25%
5.50%
4.75%
4.25%4.50%
4.00%
(Advance) Durable goods report, New home sales
Existing home sales
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Consumption
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
719
93
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
% G
row
th
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Growth in Retail and Food Sales
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
% G
row
th
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Consumer Credit Outstanding
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
% G
row
th
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Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
% o
f P
erso
nal
Inco
me
afte
r T
axes
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Consumer Sentiment Index
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
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Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos & Light Trucks
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
% G
row
th (
4-m
onth
ave
rage
)
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Average Hourly Earnings
0
1
2
3
4
5
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
% G
row
th
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Unemployment RateUnemployment Rate
0
2
4
6
8
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
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Duration of Duration of Unemployment in Unemployment in
MonthsMonths
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
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Initial Claims for Initial Claims for Unemployment Unemployment
InsuranceInsurance
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/wkclaims/report.asp?
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Total Nonfarm Payrolls: Total Nonfarm Payrolls: All EmployeesAll Employees
-2
0
2
4
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
% G
row
th
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InvestmentInvestment
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
% G
row
th
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
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Corporate Profits after TaxCorporate Profits after Tax
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
% G
row
th
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
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Manufacturers' New Orders: Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable GoodsDurable Goods
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
% G
row
th
![Page 25: What of the future? Gabriel Martinez, Ph.D. Ave Maria University August 2007 14,000 3.4% 0.6%](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/56649efa5503460f94c0c4cd/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Manufacturers' New Orders: Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding
AircraftAircraft
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
% G
row
th
![Page 26: What of the future? Gabriel Martinez, Ph.D. Ave Maria University August 2007 14,000 3.4% 0.6%](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/56649efa5503460f94c0c4cd/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Industrial ProductionIndustrial Production
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
% G
row
th
![Page 27: What of the future? Gabriel Martinez, Ph.D. Ave Maria University August 2007 14,000 3.4% 0.6%](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/56649efa5503460f94c0c4cd/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Inventory to Sales RatioInventory to Sales Ratio
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
% G
row
th
![Page 28: What of the future? Gabriel Martinez, Ph.D. Ave Maria University August 2007 14,000 3.4% 0.6%](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/56649efa5503460f94c0c4cd/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
ISM Manufacturing: PMI ISM Manufacturing: PMI Composite IndexComposite Index
40
45
50
55
60
65
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent that it is generally declining.
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Total Capacity UtilizationTotal Capacity Utilization
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
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Private Nonresidential Fixed Private Nonresidential Fixed InvestmentInvestment
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
![Page 31: What of the future? Gabriel Martinez, Ph.D. Ave Maria University August 2007 14,000 3.4% 0.6%](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/56649efa5503460f94c0c4cd/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
National Home Builder’s Housing Market Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://www.nahb.org
![Page 32: What of the future? Gabriel Martinez, Ph.D. Ave Maria University August 2007 14,000 3.4% 0.6%](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062520/56649efa5503460f94c0c4cd/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Housing Starts
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ Thousands of Units
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Building Permits
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ Thousands of Units
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Existing Home Sales
Existing Home Sales
(millions)
4
5
6
7
8
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ Home sales in millions of homes
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Month’s Supply of Homes
Month's Supply
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ Home sales in millions of homes
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Median Home Prices
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ Home sales in millions of homes
% G
row
th
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Mortgage Rate
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Ja
n-0
4
Ap
r-0
4
Ju
l-0
4
Oc
t-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ap
r-0
5
Ju
l-0
5
Oc
t-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ap
r-0
6
Ju
l-0
6
Oc
t-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ap
r-0
7
Ju
l-0
7
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ Home sales in millions of homes
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.. ...
....... .. ..... . .
. ... .
...
.. ....
.. .. .
.
... . . . ...
...
. . . ....
. . ..
.
.... . ..
...
..
.. ..
..
.. ..
....
.. . .2006m12
2007m1 2007m22007m3
2007m42007m5
2007m6
2007m7
100
000
150
000
200
000
250
000
me
dpric
e
5000000 5500000 6000000 6500000 7000000 7500000Existing Home Sales
Los precios no volverán a resurgir hasta que las ventas vuelvan a su tendencia y a su pico de 7,250,000.
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Actual and Predicted Home Prices
$200,000
$205,000
$210,000
$215,000
$220,000
$225,000
$230,000
$235,000
$240,000Ja
n-0
6
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Prices (actual) Prices (Predicted) Prices (New Prediction)
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Actual and Predicted Family Income
$56,000$56,500$57,000$57,500$58,000$58,500$59,000$59,500$60,000$60,500$61,000
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08
Family Income (Actual) Family Income (Predicted)
Family Income (New Prediction)
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Actual and Predicted Mortgage Rate
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08
Mortgage Rate (Actual) Mortgage Rate (Predicted)
Mortgage Rate (New Prediction)
Per
cent
age
Poi
nts
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Demand (NAHB HMI) and Supply (Housing Starts), 2005-2007
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jun-0
5
Aug-05
Oct
-05
Dec-0
5
Feb-0
6
Apr-06
Jun-0
6
Aug-06
Oct
-06
Dec-0
6
Feb-0
7
Apr-07
Jun-0
7
Aug-07
0
1000
2000
3000
HMI Housing Starts
Paralized supply, falling demand
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Affordability Index
80
100
120
140
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
afford trendcycle_afford newpredictafford
Stable prices, higher mortgage rates, and slower income growth keep “affordability” from rising
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Consumer InflationConsumer Inflation
0
1
2
3
4
5
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
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Expectations of InflationExpectations of Inflation
0
1
2
3
4
5
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
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Producer InflationProducer Inflation
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
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Cost of LaborCost of Labor
Employment Cost IndexUnit Labor
Cost
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
% G
row
th
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
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Oil PriceOil Price
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1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/