What May Emerge as Renewables BLSl?Become Large Scale?electriconf/2011/pdfs/Apt_What...operation and...
Transcript of What May Emerge as Renewables BLSl?Become Large Scale?electriconf/2011/pdfs/Apt_What...operation and...
What May Emerge as Renewables B L S l ?Become Large Scale?
J A tJay Apt
Tepper School of Business andD t t f E i i & P bli P liDepartment of Engineering & Public Policy
Carnegie Mellon University
March 8, 2011
2 www.RenewElec.org
Operating Wind Farms February 21, 2011p g y ,Wind farms > 5 MW
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Does wind power have atmospheric risks?Does wind power have atmospheric risks?
“…the wind farm significantly slows down the wind…usually leading to a warming and drying of the surface air…”
Models show wind causes temperature h 1°Cchanges ~ 1°C
Annual surface temperature (GFDL d l)
90N
0.8
1
response (GFDL model)
30N
60N
0.4
0.6
0
-0.2
0
0.2
60S
30S
-0.6
-0.4
180W 120W 60W 0 60E 120E 180E90S -1
-0.8
Units: °KSurface (2 m) air temperature response. Drag perturbation of 0.005.Surface (2 m) air temperature response. Drag perturbation of 0.005. Showing 20 yr of perturbed run versus 20 years of control.
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Wind sometimes fails for many days
BPA Balancing Authority Total Wind Generation
1250
1500 Sum of ~1000 turbines
500
750
1000
WM
5 10 15 20 25 30
250
500
5 10 15 20 25 30Date in January 2009
[CEC:2010] R. Masiello, K. Vu, L. Deng, A. Abrams, K. Corfee, J. Harrison, D. Hawkins, and K. Yagnik, “Research evaluation of wind generation, solar generation, and storage impact on the California grid,” tech. rep., Public Interest Energy Research (PIER), California Energy Commission, 2010. [C ] C il f l (C ) “ l f h i i f i d[CEER:2009] Council of European Energy Regulators (CEER), “Regulatory aspects of the integration of wind generation in European electricity markets.” 2009. [DOE:2008] “20% Wind Energy by 2030: Increasing Wind Energy’s Contribution to U.S. Electricity Supply,” tech. rep., US Dept. of Energy, 2008. [Doherty:2005] R. Doherty and M. O’Malley, “A new approach to quantify reserve demand in systems with significant installed wind capacity,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 587–595, 2005. [ERCOT:2008] “ERCOT Wind Impact / Integration Analysis,” tech. rep., GE Energy Consulting, 2008. [EWIS:2010] EWIS, “European wind integration study (EWIS): Towards a successful integration of large scale wind power into European electricity grids,” tech. rep., European Wind Integration Study, 2010. [EWIS:2010] Wilhelm Winter, ed., “Towards A Successful Integration of Large Scale Wind Power into European Electricity Grids,” tech. rep., European Wind Integration Study, 2010. [MacCormack:2010] J. MacCormack, A. Hollis, H. Zareipour, and W. Rosehart, “The large-scale integration of wind generation: Impacts on price, reliability and dispatchable conventional suppliers,” Energy Policy, vol. 38, pp. 3837–3846, 2010. [MN:2006] R. Zavadil, “Final Report - 2006 Minnesota Wind Integration Study: Volume I,” tech. rep., EnerNex Corporation, 2006. [NREL:2010] D. Corbus, “Eastern wind integration and transmission study,” tech. rep., National Renewable Energy Laboratory/EnerNex, 2010. [NYSERDA:2005] John Saintcross, ed. “The Effects of Integrating Wind Power on Transmission System Planning, [ ] , g g y g,Reliability, and Operations, Report on Phase 2: System Performance Evaluation.” New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. [SPP:2010] T. B. Tsuchida, P. A. Ruiz, A. Rudkevich, P. W. Sauer, G. G. Lorenz ́on, R. Yeu, R. Baxter, J. Cooper, D. Cross-Call, S. L. Englander, and J. Goldis, “SPP WITF Wind Integration Study,” tech. rep., Charles River Associates, 2010.
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[Strbac:2007] G. Strbac, A. Shakoor, M. Black, D. Pudjianto, and T. Bopp, “Impact of wind generation on the operation and development of the UK electricity systems,” Electric Power Systems Research, pp. 1214–1227, 2007.
All of these assume Gaussian (normal)statistical distributions for wind
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15 Days of 10-Second Time Resolution Data
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Fourier Transform to get the Power Spectrum
2.6 Days
30 Seconds30 Seconds
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We can learn some importantthings from the power spectrumg p p
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Smoothing by Adding Wind Farms
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101 Wind Plant
24 Hours
100
101
al D
ensi
ty
10-1
ower
Spe
ctra
10-3
10-2Po
10-7 10-6 10-5 10-4 10-310-4
Frequency (Hz)
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Smoothing by Adding Wind Farms
102
101 Wind Plant4 Wind Plants24 Hours
100
101
al D
ensi
ty
10-1
ower
Spe
ctra
10-3
10-2Po
10-7 10-6 10-5 10-4 10-310-4
Frequency (Hz)
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Smoothing by Adding Wind Farms
102
101 Wind Plant4 Wind Plants20 Wind Plants
24 Hours
100
101
al D
ensi
ty
10-1
ower
Spe
ctra
10-3
10-2Po
10-7 10-6 10-5 10-4 10-310-4
Frequency (Hz)
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103
Smoothing by Adding Wind Farms
102
101 Wind Plant4 Wind Plants20 Wind Plants
24 Hours
100
101
al D
ensi
ty
f-1.67
10-1
ower
Spe
ctra
Source: Katzenstein, W., E. Fertig, and J. Apt, The Variability of Interconnected Wind Plants. Energy Policy 2010 38(8): 4400 4410
10-3
10-2Po
f-2.56
Energy Policy, 2010. 38(8): 4400-4410.
10-7 10-6 10-5 10-4 10-310-4
Frequency (Hz)
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Smoothing by Adding Wind Farmshas diminishing returns… has diminishing returns
Source: Katzenstein, W., E. Fertig, and J. Apt, The Variability of Interconnected Wind Plants. Energy Policy, 2010. 38(8): 4400-4410.
Each hour decompose wind energy into the following components
Up Energy
Down Energy ← qH
qForecasted
Hourly
Ene
rgy
Compo
nent
Wind Energy
Load Following Component
↓ Capacity
↑ Capacity
← qH
Regulation
Component0 15 30 45 60 min
t
nt
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2008
11
12
9
10
$/M
Wh)
7
8
bilit
y C
ost (
$
5
6
Varia
b
0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.53
4
Capacity Factor
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2008 and 2009
11
12
20082009
9
10
/MW
h)
7
8
bilit
y C
ost (
$
5
6
Varia
b
0 2 0 25 0 3 0 35 0 4 0 45 0 53
4
0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5Capacity Factor
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11
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Highest Variability Cost Wind Plant as Starting PointMedian Variability Cost Wind Plant as Starting PointLowest Variability Cost Wind Plant as Starting PointIndividual Wind Plants
9
10
$/M
Wh)
7
8
abilit
y C
ost (
6
Varia
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 204
5
Number of Interconnected Wind Plants
Number of Interconnected Wind Plants
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Hydroelectric Power has Droughts
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Wind Probably Does Too
Source: Katzenstein, W., E. Fertig, and J. Apt, The Variability of Interconnected Wind Plants.
Energy Policy, 2010. 38(8): 4400-4410.
Operating Solar PV February 21, 2011p g y ,Units > 5 MW
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Solar
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Comparison of Wind with Solar PV4.6 MW TEP Solar Array (Arizona)
4000
y ( )
2000
3000
4000
kW
0
1000
1400000 1450000 1500000 1550000
Seconds since 00:00:00 Jan 1, 2007,
2000
3000
W
0
1000
2000
kW
(b)
kW
30
250 750 1250Minutes
Comparison of wind and solar PV
Solar PV
Wind
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Source: CEIC Working Paper CEIC-07-12, available at www.cmu.edu/electricity
Work with Warren Katzenstein
NOx and CO2 Emissions from Gas Turbines Paired with Wind or Solar for Firm Power
GE LM6000
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GE LM6000sealegacy.com
Siemens-Westinghouse 501FDsummitvineyardllc.com
Siemens-Westinghouse 501FD Regression Analysis
3.5
2.5
3
min
)
1.5
2
Em
itted
(lb/
m
GE Document GER-3568G
0 5
1NO
x E
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2000
0.5
Power (MW)
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Power (MW)
Emissions Factors(a) LM6000
0 4(b) LM6000
LM6000Steam,no SCR
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
(tonn
es/M
Wh)
Predicted
0 2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
ns (k
g/M
Wh)
0.05
0.1
0.15
CO
2 Em
issi
ons
Expected
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
NO
x Em
issi
o
Expected
Predicted
501FDDLN
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
α (Penetration Factor)0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
α (Penetration Factor)
0.35)
(c) 501FD0.4
(d) 501FD
DLN,SCR
0 15
0.2
0.25
0.3
ons
(tonn
es/M
Wh)
Predicted
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
sion
s (k
g/M
Wh) Predicted
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.05
0.1
0.15
(P t ti F t )
CO
2 Em
issi
o
Expected
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.05
0.1
0.15N
Ox E
mis
s
Expected
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α (Penetration Factor) α (Penetration Factor)
Will Electric Vehicles Come to the Rescue?
V2G energy arbitrage profit sensitivity to battery pack replacement costV2G energy arbitrage profit sensitivity to battery pack replacement cost with perfect information in the three cities studied. The symbol indicates
the median annual profit for the years studied and the range indicates the most and least profitable years.
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But, a very small battery installation can buffer a lot of wind variabilitycan buffer a lot of wind variability
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Final Comments• None of this means that wind,
geothermal or solar (if costs evergeothermal, or solar (if costs ever come down) can't be used at large
l b t i d/ l ill iscale, but wind/solar will require a portfolio of fill-in power (some with p p (very high ramp rates, some with slow) and R&D is required to optimizeand R&D is required to optimize emissions control for fast and deep ramping
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ramping.