What makes a good plan better?. Board decision criteria Navigation benefits Hydropower benefits.
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Transcript of What makes a good plan better?. Board decision criteria Navigation benefits Hydropower benefits.
Benefit DriversWhat makes a good plan better?
Board decision criteria Navigation benefits Hydropower benefits
Outline
Perspectives:◦ What can Lake Superior regulation affect?◦ What shipments could reduce costs the most for
the least change in water levels?◦ Which water levels affect costs?
Analysis
Navigation benefits
Nav Benefits of Current Alternatives
Net Benefits77A 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 55M49 Bal1 PP
1-Sup $0.00 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.002-MH $0.00 $0.16 $0.15 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.14 $0.09 -$0.22 -$0.05 -$0.093-StC $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.004-E $0.00 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 -$0.02 -$0.01 -$0.015-S-MH $0.00 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.22 -$0.16 -$0.58 -$0.22 -$0.436-S-MH-StC $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.07 -$0.03 -$0.057-S-MH-StC-E $0.00 -$0.30 -$0.29 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.29 -$0.21 -$0.60 -$0.13 -$0.578-MH-StC $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 -$0.019-MH-StC-E $0.00 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.14 $0.09 -$0.22 -$0.05 -$0.0910-StC-E $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 -$0.18 -$0.19 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.21 -$0.17 -$1.74 -$0.48 -$1.25
Rank 1 5.5 9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 10 2 13 11 12
Things to notice
1. Almost no difference on costs for shipments below Michigan-Huron because there’s no almost no difference in the levels on Lake Erie
173
174
175
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
or Lake St. Clair
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1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Nav Benefits of Current Alternatives
Net Benefits77A 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 55M49 Bal1 PP
1-Sup $0.00 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.002-MH $0.00 $0.16 $0.15 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.14 $0.09 -$0.22 -$0.05 -$0.093-StC $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.004-E $0.00 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 -$0.02 -$0.01 -$0.015-S-MH $0.00 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.22 -$0.16 -$0.58 -$0.22 -$0.436-S-MH-StC $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.07 -$0.03 -$0.057-S-MH-StC-E $0.00 -$0.30 -$0.29 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.29 -$0.21 -$0.60 -$0.13 -$0.578-MH-StC $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 -$0.019-MH-StC-E $0.00 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.14 $0.09 -$0.22 -$0.05 -$0.0910-StC-E $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 -$0.18 -$0.19 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.21 -$0.17 -$1.74 -$0.48 -$1.25
Rank 1 5.5 9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 10 2 13 11 12
Things to notice
2. Some difference, not a lot, on shipments through the St. Marys River, where regulation plans can make a difference. Notice that preproject and 55Mod 48 are the worst.3. Plan 130 is the second ranked plan, and not much
better than Plan 129, which is ranked 10th.
SVM first slimmed down, removing all calculations outside of commercial navigation
Two plan structure reduced to one plan Several variations on CN Subroutes
worksheet defined to find when, where and why costs went up
Analyzing the potential for nav benefits
Conn Channel finds the connecting channel depth
Conn Channel finds the connecting channel depth
East dock does just on of the many things CN SubRoutes does, it calculates the depth of water at the eastern dock for each trip category each month.
CN SubRoutes calculates cost for each trip category each month by finding the controlling depth for that month, then looking up the cost for that depth on CN Costs
And then cause looks at all three and fingers the body of water that was the shallowest along each trip. All the “Ds” here represent Lake Superior. Of course, these are trips on just Lake Superior, so that’s no surprise.
Here are trips between Lakes Michigan-Huron and Lake Superior showing both Cs (Michigan-Huron) and Ds (Lake Superior). What you don’t see are lot of Ls, Ms or Ns (SW Pier, US Slip, and Rock Cut)
Incr Costs calculates the difference between the costs each month, each trip and the lowest possible cost for that trip and month. The minimum costs are calculated on “Min Costs”.
Knowing for each month and trip category which body of water limits loading can provide a statistical portrait of what’s driving costs
Putting it together
Number of times a lake or connecting channel is the limiting factorRoutes Superior SW Pier US Slip Rock Cut MH Detroit R LSC (cc) LSC dock St Clair R Erie1-Sup 4,251 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-MH 0 0 0 0 41,202 0 0 0 0 03-StC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 109 0 04-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32,0465-S-MH 5,769 2,074 245 525 11,334 0 0 0 0 06-S-MH-StC 109 539 11 1 0 0 0 1,969 532 07-S-MH-StC-E 10,305 2,290 56 4 0 0 8 0 3,455 8,9528-MH-StC 0 0 0 0 2,280 0 0 4,914 109 09-MH-StC-E 0 0 0 0 29,189 0 7 0 4,555 17,47910-StC-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 206 0 0 4,917
Violet shading indicates routes affected by Lake Superior or St. Marys River
Loads for trips from Lake Superior to Michigan-Huron are affected most often by depths at the Lake Michigan dock, then the Lake Superior dock, and some at the SW Pier (not much at U.S. Slip or Rock Cut)
Putting it together
Number of times a lake or connecting channel is the limiting factorRoutes Superior SW Pier US Slip Rock Cut MH Detroit R LSC (cc) LSC dock St Clair R Erie1-Sup 4,251 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-MH 0 0 0 0 41,202 0 0 0 0 03-StC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 109 0 04-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32,0465-S-MH 5,769 2,074 245 525 11,334 0 0 0 0 06-S-MH-StC 109 539 11 1 0 0 0 1,969 532 07-S-MH-StC-E 10,305 2,290 56 4 0 0 8 0 3,455 8,9528-MH-StC 0 0 0 0 2,280 0 0 4,914 109 09-MH-StC-E 0 0 0 0 29,189 0 7 0 4,555 17,47910-StC-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 206 0 0 4,917
Violet shading indicates routes affected by Lake Superior or St. Marys River
There aren’t many trips to or from Lake St. Clair There are many trips between Lake Superior and Lake
Erie (these include trips beyond Erie),most limited by Lake Superior or Lake Erie dock depths. Again, some at SW Pier, not many at US Slip or Rock Cut.
Putting it together
Number of times a lake or connecting channel is the limiting factorRoutes Superior SW Pier US Slip Rock Cut MH Detroit R LSC (cc) LSC dock St Clair R Erie1-Sup 4,251 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-MH 0 0 0 0 41,202 0 0 0 0 03-StC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 109 0 04-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32,0465-S-MH 5,769 2,074 245 525 11,334 0 0 0 0 06-S-MH-StC 109 539 11 1 0 0 0 1,969 532 07-S-MH-StC-E 10,305 2,290 56 4 0 0 8 0 3,455 8,9528-MH-StC 0 0 0 0 2,280 0 0 4,914 109 09-MH-StC-E 0 0 0 0 29,189 0 7 0 4,555 17,47910-StC-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 206 0 0 4,917
Violet shading indicates routes affected by Lake Superior or St. Marys River
In the 109 years of simulated 77A water levels, navigation costs range from $2,816,290,162 to $2,955,652,867, a difference of 5%.
That includes shipments that go through the St Marys and those that do not.
Does a good navigation year mean Lake Superior was high? St. Marys River flows were high?
Best and worst navigation years
Ranked each year – average water levels in Superior, MH, flows in St Marys and Costs.
Rank 1 = highest for water, lowest for costs Best year was 1988, worst year was 1966
Cost and level correlations
Cost and level correlations
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Flow
rank
Cost Rank
St. Marys rank vs. Cost Rank
Lowest cost year (1) left
Highest flows (1) bottom
Some high flow years have low costs
And some have high costsSome low flow years have high costsAnd a couple low flow years have low costs
y = 0.4319x + 31.239R² = 0.1864
0
20
40
60
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100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Flow
rank
Cost Rank
R2 = 0.19
Cost and level correlations
0
20
40
60
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100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Flow
rank
Cost Rank
St. Marys rank vs. Cost Rank
y = 0.4319x + 31.239R² = 0.1864
0
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40
60
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100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Flow
rank
Cost Rank
R2 = 0.19
y = 0.8442x + 8.4969R² = 0.7112
0
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120
0 50 100 150
Superior
rank
Cost Rank
Superior rank vs. Cost Rank
R2 = 0.71
Cost and level correlations
0
20
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100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Flow
rank
Cost Rank
St. Marys rank vs. Cost Rank
y = 0.4319x + 31.239R² = 0.1864
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120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Flow
rank
Cost RankR2 = 0.19 y = 0.8442x + 8.4969R² = 0.7112
0
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0 50 100 150
Superior
rank
Cost Rank
Superior rank vs. Cost Rank
R2 = 0.71
y = 0.9833x + 0.8838R² = 0.9653
0
20
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120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
MH
rank
Cost Rank
MH vs. Cost Rank
R2 = 0.97