What is the RISK of dying in a road Accident in SWANSEA ... · 420 mm (total length of A3 poster)...
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Results The data showed that during the period of 2005 to 2014* there were 124 road casuales that resulted in at least one death within the 148 Swansea LSOAs. The low risk combined with very low risk rate covered 87.16% of the LSOAs. While the medium risk rate covered 9.46% of areas, the high and very high risk rate combined totalled 3.38%. Data & Methods This exploratory data analysis (EDA) allows for the development of a geographical risk model derived from a combinaon of datasets (road casuales and census) sourced by UK authories during the period of 2005 to 2014*. Severity type 1 accidents (fatal) in the Swansea LSOAs were invesgated. The risk map was produced aſter aggregang counts of accident types 1 across a region and normalising them for the amount of road network and populaon found in the region. The calculaon of the basic risk rate and ajusted rate (AR) for accident type 1 consisted of: Basic Rate = Total Accidents Total Km of road AR = Total Sev. Type 1 Accidents Total Accidents * Basic Rates The risk rates were distributed as quinles ranging from very low to very high risk. A severity type 1 road accident is defined as an accident in which at least one person is killed 1 . Road Risk Map Accident severity type 1 (DEATH) Swansea LSOA, UK REFERENCES 1 Reported Road Casuales in Great Britain: notes, definions, symbols and convenons, hps://goo.gl/l1TsnW. 2 Police recorded road casuales in Wales, 2014, Stascs for Wales, hps://goo.gl/cGljFE. 3 Local Area Summary Stascs, Stascs for Wales, hps://goo.gl/kaB1uT * The combined dataset does not contain data for the year 2007. Conclusion The risk map shows that the risk of road death in the Swansea area is relavely low at 3.38% (very high risk and high risk combined). These findings complement published literature that suggest that recorded road casuales have been decreasing over the last decade in Wales 2,3 . Nonetheless, there are sll specific Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) in the precincts of Landore, Castle and Morriston that present a higher risk of road casuales resulng in death. These findings can, therefore, assist government and law enforcement to recognise paerns of high risk localies by focusing on prevenon measures. Other stascal aspects of the accident severity type 1 (fatal) data can also be visualised on the figures below. Other statistical insights of accident severity type 1 Lecia Kemp, MSc Health Data Science, School of Medicine, Swansea University, Wales, UK What is the RISK of dying in a road Accident in SWANSEA? exploratory Data AnalYsis Very low risk Castle 4 Castle 6 Very high risk Medium risk Low risk High risk Landore 2 Morriston 7 Castle 8 26% Deaths of 18 years of age and under S U N D A Y M O N D A Y T U E W E D T H U R S D A Y F R I D A Y S A T U R D A Y 10% 7% Deaths per day of the week 19% 28% 13% 15% 8% Deaths by gender 2 out of 3 are males
Transcript of What is the RISK of dying in a road Accident in SWANSEA ... · 420 mm (total length of A3 poster)...
420 mm (total length of A3 poster)– 20 mm (top margin)– 20 mm (bottom margin)= 380 mm = 76 mm 5 modules
ResultsThe data showed that during the period of 2005 to 2014* there were 124 road casualties that resulted in at least one death within the 148 Swansea LSOAs. The low risk combined with very low risk rate covered 87.16% of the LSOAs. While the medium risk rate covered 9.46% of areas, the high and very high risk rate combined totalled 3.38%.
Data & MethodsThis exploratory data analysis (EDA) allows for the development of a geographical risk model derived from a combination of datasets (road casualties and census) sourced by UK authorities during the period of 2005 to 2014*. Severity type 1 accidents (fatal) in the Swansea LSOAs were investigated.
The risk map was produced after aggregating counts of accident types 1 across a region and normalising them for the amount of road network and population found in the region. The calculation of the basic risk rate and ajusted rate (AR) for accident type 1 consisted of:
Basic Rate = Total Accidents Total Km of road
AR = Total Sev. Type 1 Accidents Total Accidents * Basic Rates
The risk rates were distributed as quintiles ranging from very low to very high risk. A severity type 1 road accident is defined as an accident in which at least one person is killed1.
Road Risk Map Accident severity type 1 (DEATH) Swansea LSOA, UK
REFERENCES1 Reported Road Casualties in Great Britain: notes, definitions, symbols and conventions, https://goo.gl/l1TsnW. 2 Police recorded road casualties in Wales, 2014, Statistics for Wales, https://goo.gl/cGljFE. 3 Local Area Summary Statistics, Statistics for Wales, https://goo.gl/kaB1uT* The combined dataset does not contain data for the year 2007.
ConclusionThe risk map shows that the risk of road death in the Swansea area is relatively low at 3.38% (very high risk and high risk combined). These findings complement published literature that suggest that recorded road casualties have been decreasing over the last decade in Wales2,3. Nonetheless, there are still specific Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) in the precincts of Landore, Castle and Morriston that present a higher risk of road casualties resulting in death. These findings can, therefore, assist government and law enforcement to recognise patterns of high risk localities by focusing on prevention measures. Other statistical aspects of the accident severity type 1 (fatal) data can also be visualised on the figures below.
Other statistical insights of accident severity type 1
Leticia Kemp, MSc Health Data Science, School of Medicine, Swansea University, Wales, UK
W h at i s t h e R I S K o f dy i n g i n a r o a d A c c i d e n t i n S WA N S E A?exploratory Data AnalYsis
Very low risk Castle 4 Castle 6
Very high risk
Medium riskLow risk
High risk
Landore 2Morriston 7
Castle 8
26%
Deaths of 18 years of age and under
SUNDAY MONDAY TUE WED THURSDAY
FRID
AY
SATURDAY
10%
7%
Deaths per day of the week
19%
28%
13% 15%
8%
Deaths bygender
2 out of 3are males
