What is “risk”?

“a situation involving exposure to danger” (Oxford)

Combination of: Likelihood of occurrence

X Consequences of occurrence

RAF Technical Overview

Common approach Enhances understanding – nature of risks Identifies critical factors Utilizes evidence Addresses gaps and uncertainties Promotes collaboration on shared risks

Results in transparent and accountable public policy and decisions in natural resource management

NFPS Risk Analysis Framework

Likelihood of occurrence where? when?

Some concepts and terms…

Consequences of occurrence what?

Transparency

Some concepts and terms…

“easy to see through, understand, or recognize; obvious” (Collins)

operating in such a way that it is easy for others to see what actions are taken, and why

Ecosystem services

Some concepts and terms…

“benefits people obtain from ecosystems ” (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005)

examples: carbon sequestration water and air purification nutrient dispersal and cycling industrial products recreation energy

Triggers

Some concepts and terms…

pest

pathway/commodity

ecosystem

Trigger - forest pest threat of some kind

Increasing numbers of pathways

Plant pests have always been spread via man’s activities

World Trade Organisation (WTO) has broken down trade barriers

Global trade dramatically increased during 20th Century

Increasing numbers of pathways

Source: WTO data http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch5en/conc5en/worldexports.html

Pathway

Any means that allow the entry or spread of a pest; could be…

an imported commodity a means of transportation or

storage packaging, or other articles

associated with the commodity a natural means of spread (e.g.,

wind)

A commodity is a plant or plant product being moved for trade or other purposes

Examples

A request to import something that has not previously been imported from the proposed country of origin

A different end-use is proposed for a commodity that is already being imported

A new treatment is proposed for a commodity that is already being imported

An interception is made Live pests are found on a previously unidentified pathway or

commodity

Pathway Description

The more you know about the pathway, the more accurate the PRA will be and the more effective or appropriate any subsequent phytosanitary measures will be

Ask questions Consider all aspects of pathway Get detailed descriptions Understand it

Looming ESBW outbreak in eastern Quebec

SBW RA case study - Triggers

losses experienced in the previous outbreak would have a significant negative impact on wood supply today

forestry landscape has changed since the last OB

limited protection options available

Needed a real life case for development of the framework

MPB RA case study - Triggers

SOD RA case study - Triggers

Management goals broad objectives carry a social mandate e.g. maintain healthy forest ecosystems

-- A common context for Pest RA – Adapted from Suter 1993

Assessment endpoints translate mgmt goals into conceptual model satisfy social objectives e.g. maintain expected supply of timber; other values

Setting Objectives

Measurement endpoints operational definitions can be measured e.g. black spruce growing stock; mature conifer habitat

biologically relevant

Endpoints

important to society unambigously defined operationally feasible predictable and measurable susceptible to hazard

Suter 1993

Setting Objectives

Scope (of the RA)

Setting Objectives

Objectives

Resources Time

statements of desired outcomes of the RA

Objectives can be…

questions to be answered

Setting Objectives

Case studies’ experience…

Setting objectives

Setting Objectives

ESBW case study - Objectives

Consultation with MRNQ

Synthesis of research knowledge Likely impacts of various stand types Intervention options Evaluate preventative measures

Evaluate SBW DSS as a tool Contribute to dev of NFPS RA Framework

Setting Objectives

Others…