Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 1

Renewable and Clean Energy: Challenges for our Future

Kenji YamajiThe University of Tokyo

- What is Renewable and Clean Energy ?

- Advantages and Disadvantages of Renewables

- Current State of New Renewable Energies:

Photovolataics(PV), Wind Power, Bioenergy

- Prospects and Challenges

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What is Renewable and Clean Energy ?

- Renewable Energies:

Old and New

Not Stock but Flow, but flow rate is limited

Generally Clean, but have their problems: noise, land use

- Clean Energies:

Many views: Nuclear is clean in terms of CO2 emissions;

Natural gas is clean in terms of SOx emissions;

Coal can be used as clean energy by CCT;

Electricity and Hydrogen: clean energy carrier

- Focus on （New） Renewable Energies: PV, Wind, Bioenergy

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Advantages and Disadvantages of Renewable Energiesin the Context of Sustainability

- Resource Availability: inexhaustible, but limited flow rates

- CO2 Emissions: life cycle CO2 emissions much less than fossil fuels

- Compatibility with Recycle System: energy recovery from wastes (in case of bioenergy)

- Local Accessibility: community resources, but unstable

- Economic Affordability: still expensive

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Current State of Renewable Energies

- Shares of Renewables in Global Energy Supply (IEA,2000)

Hydropowe: 226Mtoe (2.2%)*

Geothermal (incl. Solar etc.): 51Mtoe (0.5%)*

Combustible Renewables and Waste: 1095Mtoe (10.8%)**

*caveat: conversion of 860kcal=1kWh is applied

(While kWh produced by nuclear is almost as much as that of hydropower, the share of nuclear in global energy supply is counted as 6.7% )

**caveat: 820Mtoe is used in developing area mostly as non-commercial form

- Statistics for New Renewables should be counted differently

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Current State of New Renewable Energies

- Photovoltaics (PV (solar cell)):

World Total Installed Capacity (in 2002): around 1.5GW

Primary Energy Supply: 0.5Mtoe

(assuming 12.5% capacity factor and 2450kcal/kWh):

- Wind Power:

World Total Installed Capacity (in 2002): around 30GW

Primary Energy Supply: 19Mtoe

(assuming 25% capacity factor and 2450kcal/kWh)

- Modern Bioenergy (for electricity, heat, and fuel, in IEA2000):

Electricity: 23Mtoe

CHP(heat and power): 51Mtoe

Heat: 23Mtoe

Fuel and Others: 48Mtoe

Total: 145Mtoe

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Cumulative Installed Capacity of PV

(kWe)

(year)

Japan

Germany

USA

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Wind Power Installation in the World

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Generating Capacity of PV and Wind Power in Japan

0

100

200

300

400

500

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Year

Cap

acit

y [M

W]wind turbine PV

>450MW

>700MW(PV in 2003)

(Wind in 2003)

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Prospects and Challenges (1)

- Theoretical Potential is Huge:

Solar Insolation: more than 10,000 times of global energy requirements

Wind Power: more than theoretical potential of hydropower

(which is equivalent to global energy requirements)

Bioenergy: net primary production (NPP) by photosynthesis is 7 times

of global energy requirements;

(Residues/Waste from food, paper,and timber supply provide attractive resources for bioenergy applications; and, there is a possibility of bioenergy plantation)

- Challenges:

Exploring Technological/Economic/Market Potentials is another:

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Summary of the Studies on Bioenergy Supply Potentials

Evaluationperiod

Year RegionsEnergycrops

(EJ/year)

M odernfuelw ood(EJ/year)

Biom assresidues(EJ/year)

Total(EJ/year)

Hall a) 1991 1991 82 - - 87 -Dessus et al. b) 1985-2020 2020 10 15 65 26 106Johansson et al.c) 1985-2050 2050 10 128 10 68 206Alcam o d) 1990-2100 2050 13 - - 74 74

2100 - - 208 208IPCC-BI e) 2025-2100 2050 7 135 - 48 183

2100 229 - 96 325Fischer et al. f) 1990-2050 2050 11 147-207 91-110 132-135 370-453G LUE-11 g) 1961-2100 2050 11 110 (378) 72 182

2100 22 (378) 114 136

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Prospects and Challenges (2)

- Technology:

Achieving Stable Supply: Energy Storage and Networking

Exploiting Remote Resources: Long Distance Energy Transport,

Off-shore Wind Power, Solar Power in Desert, Space Solar Power Station

- New Economy:

Economies of Mass and/or Co-Production in stead of Scale Economies

Network Economy like Edison System in Electricity Business

Social Infrastructure for Recycling (for Bioenergy from Wastes)

- Policy Measures:

Research & Development

Demonstration Programs

Promotion of Market Diffusion

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Prospects and Challenges (3) Policy Measures in Japan

-Government (Budget in FY2003)

Research & Development: 43.4B¥ (incl. Fuel Cell)

Demonstration Programs: 18.8B¥ (incl. Fuel Cell)

Promotion of Market Diffusion: 94.6B¥ (incl. Clean Energy Vehicle)

Introduction of RPS (Renewables Portfolio Standard)

Biomass Nippon Initiative (Inter-Ministerial Plan for Integrated Use of Biomass)

-Industry (esp. Electric Utilities)

Buying Electricity from Renewables with High Prices (e.g. Retail Prices for PV)

Green Power System (Green Fund and Green Power Certification System)

-NGOs

Various Local Community Activities together with Local Governments

Collaborative Wind Power Installation

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Green Fund for Residential Customers (since 2000)

・donations from residential customers ＋ “matching gift” by electric utilities

Donation

grant

Electric Power Company

Donation¥500/month

Participants

Participants

Participants’ remittancesare matched with

contributions of similaramount

ContinuouslyFundedBodies Solar

Power

SolarPow

erWind

Power

Generation

Wind

Power

Generation

grant

Extended to other renewable power sources

Number of registered clients ＝ approx 20,000（0.1% of total household customers）

In case of Tokyo Electric Power Co. (source: Japan Natural Energy Co.(JNEC)

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Green Power Certification System (since 2000)

Green Power Certification Council,Japan ； GPCC,J

Certification by third party

Report of powerGeneration Record

JNEC

Contract for wind powergeneration

JP¥4/kWh

Subcontracting toAn efficient windPower ｇｅｎｅｒａｔｉｏｎ

JP¥3.5/kWh

(42 customers, 43GWh/yr as of 2003)

Wind PowerGenerationCompanies

Starting to cover other renewables such as biogas

ＣｏｒｐｏｒａｔｅCustomers

Issuance of Certification ofGreen

ElectricPower

Company

JP¥6/kWh

Power off-takeUsual power supply

(source: JNEC)

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ＲＰＳ（Renewables Portfolio Standard） in Japan (effective since 2003)

Government

(METI)

Advisory Body (Set Target)

1.35% in 2010

Utility A

(with insufficient renewables)

Renewable Power Producer in B area

Utility B (with

sufficient renewables)

construct own renewable power plant or buy in area A

certification of the plants

sanction in case of shortage

electricity sales

trade of renewablescertification

impose duty to collect renewables certification

in each year by 2010

report

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In Short, Renewable Energy is

- Good Candidate for Sustainable Energy Supply;

- Expectations are High;

But,

- Actual Supplies are Modest;

- Poor Economics needs Public Support.

⇒Should we Keep High Expectations?

YES ! (check historical cases)

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Transition from Horses to Cars in U.S.

Model Ｔ: 16million cars for 1908－1926: corresponds

160GW introduction in less than 20 years assuming 10kW/car.