What is Popdev? - Nimfa Ogena
-
Upload
mulat-pinoy-kabataan-news-network -
Category
Documents
-
view
240 -
download
3
Transcript of What is Popdev? - Nimfa Ogena
PopDev 101
What is PopDev?
Nimfa B. OgenaUP Population Institute
When you first heard of“PopDev,” what was the first
thing that came to your mind?
Perspectives on Population andEconomic development
Population growth promotes economicdevelopment(Slow to moderate population growthpromotes economic development)
Population growth impedes economicdevelopment(Rapid population growth, of already largepopulations, impedes economic development)
Population growth is not related to economicdevelopment.(Population growth is only one of many factorsthat affect economic development)
Association Between Average Annual WorldPopulation Growth Rates and GDP per CapitaGrowth Rates, 1975-2004
4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Growth Rates in Population
Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.
Growth Rate in GDP perCapita
Association Between Fertility andEducation
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Percent of Girls Enrolledin Secondary School
Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.
Total Fertility Rate
Association Between Fertility and Poverty
6
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Percent of PopulationLiving on <$2 per Day
Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.
Total Fertility Rate
What is the population of thePhilippines as ofAugust 1, 2007?
88,574,614
Population DistributionPopulation of the Philippines by Regions: 2007
11.6
1.5
4.5
3.1
9.7
11.7
2.6
5.1
6.86.4
3.93.2
4 4.23.8 4.1
2.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
NC
R
CAR
ILOCOS
CAGAYAN V
ALLEY
CENTRAL L
UZO
N
CALABARZON
MIM
AROPA
BIC
OL
W. V
ISAYAS
C. V
ISAYAS
E. V
ISAYAS
ZAM
BO P
ENIN
SULA
N. M
INDANAO
DAVAO
SOCCSKSARGEN
ARM
M
CARAGA
in M
illio
ns
Source: NSO. 2007 Census of Population and Housing
Source: NSO. Retrieved 12/19/09 from http://www.census.gov.ph/
POPDEV FrameworkMacro Level
Population Size
Age-Sex Structure
Spatial Distribution
Fertility
Mortality
Migration
Infrastructure
Social Services
Economic Development
Governance and Development Administration
Environmental Development and Preservation
Population Variables Development Factors
Current Population Issues
Rapid increase in population size withslow decline in fertility
Actual and Projected Population with Annual Average Growth Rate:Philippines, 1970-2040
36.7
42.1
48.1
60.7
68.6
76.9
85.3
103.0
111.8
120.2
128.1
135.3
141.7
94.0
1.09
1.26
1.44
1.63
1.81
1.942.05
2.362.32
2.71
2.78
2.35
0.92
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Note: Data after 2000 are Population Projections (Medium Assumption, NRR=1 by 2040)
Popu
latio
n (in
mill
ions
)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Popu
latio
n G
row
th R
ate
(in p
erce
nt)
PGR
(right axis)
Source: Population census data in various years and official population projections Available from http://www.nscb.gov.ph/secstat/d_popn.asp (accessed 13March 2006) as cited in Ogena (2006) Whither The Philippines In The 21st Century? A Conference On The Philippines, 13-14 July 2006, Institute ofSoutheast Asian Studies, Singapore
The Philippine population size is expected tocontinue growing despite the projected declinein population growth rate
Current Population Issues
Rapid increase in population size withslow decline in fertility
Age structural Shift: Still a relativelyyoung population but with rapidpopulation ageing and growingsinglehood
Projected Age Distribution Philippines, 2000-2040 (Medium Series)
The large youth population is expected to continue to2040, but the working-age population and the
number of senior citizens would increase much faster
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Popu
latio
n (in
milli
ons)
0-14 15-64 60+
20.8 m(14%)
32.2 m(24%)
88.1 m(63%)
Source: Ogena (2006) Whither The Philippines In The 21st Century? A Conference On The Philippines, 13-14 July 2006, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore
Actual and Projected Ageing Index and Potential Support Ratio:Philippines, 1970-2004
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Actual
Ageing
Index
Projected
Ageing
Index
Potential
Support
Ratio
The nearly fourfold increase of the ageing indexby the end of the projection period means thatby 2040 there will be almost two personsaged 60 or over for every three childrenunder 15 years in the Philippines.
Source: Ogena (2006) Whither The Philippines In The 21st Century? A Conference On The Philippines, 13-14 July 2006, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore
Current Population Issues
Rapid increase in population size withslow decline in fertility
Age structural Shift: Still a relativelyyoung population but with rapidpopulation ageing and growingsinglehood
Massive flow of Filipinos to foreigncountries
Increasing Filipinos overseas, with use ofirregular channels on the decline (?)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Popula
tion (
in m
illio
ns)
PERMANENT TEMPORARY IRREGULAR
Stock of Overseas Filipinos, 1997-2005
AverageAnnualDeploymentof OFWs:897 thousand(2000-2005)
Stock ofFilipinosOverseas:8.08 million(2004)
Source: Ogena (2006) Whither The Philippines InThe 21st Century? A Conference On ThePhilippines, 13-14 July 2006, Institute ofSoutheast Asian Studies, Singapore
Current Development Issues
Poor education access and quality
Declining primary education accessindicators, 2000-2005
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Percentage
GER NER GIR NIR
Indicators
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: DepEd BEIS as cited in Philippine Progress Report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) An Independent Appraisal of MDG2
Fluctuating CSR and CR andworsening repetition and drop-outsituation
2.897.3667.9969.90
2005-2006
2.246.9869.0671.32
2004-2005
2.186.8970.2471.84
2003-2004
2.086.6971.5572.44
2002-2003
1.955.7574.9475.90
2001-2002
Repetition Rate
Drop-outRate
CompletionRate
CohortSurvival
Rate
SchoolYear
Source: DepED Basic Education Information System (BEIS) as cited in Philippine Progress Report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) An Independent Appraisal ofMDG2
Typical Progression of a Sample Cohort ofPupil
6658
43
2314
100
Grade 1 Grade 6
Grad.
1st Year 4th Year
Grad.
College 1st
Year
College
Degree
Grad.
Source: Department of Education as cited in Philippine Progress Report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) An Independent Appraisal of MDG2
Current Development Issues
Poor education access and quality Low education and health budget and
expenditures Poverty and Malnutrition
Trends in GNPTrends in GNP
and GDPand GDP
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
GNP GDP
Source: Source: TemploTemplo 2003 2003
Trends in PovertyTrends in Poverty
incidenceincidence
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
%
Rural
Philippines
Source: Reyes 2003Source: Reyes 2003
28.4%Urban
From Barba (2007) Dual Malnutrition: the Philippine Case. PhilippinePopulation Association National Conference, July 28, 2007, Cebu City
Per Capita Income and Nutrition, 2003Per Capita Income and Nutrition, 2003
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
NC
R
S. Luz
on
C. Luz
on
Iloco
s
Cag
ayan
Valley
W. V
isay
as
C. V
isaya
s
E. Visa
yas
W. M
inda
no
Car
aga
Bicol
ARM
M
in p
es
os
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
in p
erc
en
t
Per capita income
% Underweight Children (0 - 5 years old)
Balisacan, A (2005) as cited in Barba (2007) Dual Malnutrition: the Philippine Case. Philippine Population Association National Conference, July 28, 2007, Cebu City
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 Q
2 Q
3 Q
4 Q
5 Q
%Incomequintile
0 – 5 y 6 – 10 yUnderweight
Malnutrition among children byMalnutrition among children byhousehold income, 2003household income, 2003
Mean per capitaincome: P22,277
1Q = P5,973.55
5Q = P57,573.83
From Barba (2007) DualMalnutrition: thePhilippine Case.Philippine PopulationAssociation NationalConference, July 28,2007, Cebu City
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 Q
2 Q
3 Q
4 Q
5 Q
%Incomequintile
0 – 5 y 6 – 10 yUnderweight
Malnutrition among children byMalnutrition among children byhousehold income, 2003household income, 2003
0.40.7
1.8
0.7
6.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Overweight-for-height (0 - 5y)
Mean per capitaincome: P22,277
1Q = P5,973.55
5Q = P57,573.83From Barba (2007) DualMalnutrition: thePhilippine Case.Philippine PopulationAssociation NationalConference, July 28,2007, Cebu City
Double burden of malnutritionDouble burden of malnutrition
undernutrition in children and overweight among adults
0
10
20
30
40
Stunting Overweight males Overweight females
From Barba (2007) DualMalnutrition: thePhilippine Case.Philippine PopulationAssociation NationalConference, July 28,2007, Cebu City
Double burdenDouble burden
Persistent undernutritionand micronutrientdeficiencies amongchildren and vulnerablegroups,
along with rising overweight,obesity and diet- andlifestyle-related NCDs inadults.
From Barba (2007) Dual Malnutrition: the Philippine Case. Philippine Population Association National Conference, July 28, 2007, Cebu City
CoexistenceCoexistence of underweight child andof underweight child andoverweight adult in same householdoverweight adult in same household
20.9 %
From Barba (2007) Dual Malnutrition: the Philippine Case. PhilippinePopulation Association National Conference, July 28, 2007, Cebu City
Current Development Issues
Poor education access and quality Low education and health budget and
expenditures Poverty and Malnutrition Peace and Human Security
“… human securityis the externalprecondition forhumandevelopment…”
(Philippine HumanDevelopment Report2005, p. 2)
Human Insecurity Indicators
Source: Philippine Human Development Report 2005, p. 60
Current Development Issues
Poor education access and quality Low education and health budget and
expenditures Poverty and Malnutrition Peace and Human Security Environmental degradation and
resource depletion
Most Populous Countries, 2009 and 2050
Source: PRB. 2009 World Populaion Data Sheet
How is this related to YOU?
Population = people
POPDEV FrameworkMicro Level
Population Variables Development Factors
Manageable Family Size
Delay Entry to Marital Union
Better Maternal and Child Health
Protection and Safety of Migrants
Quality Basic Education for All
Expanded Productive Capacity
Gender Equity and Women Empowerment
Increased Labor Force Participation
Increased Income
Environmental Development and Preservation
Policy on Population
Couples have the responsibility todecide how many children to have inaccordance with their religious beliefsand the demands of responsibleparenthood for sustainabledevelopment
(Article XV Section 3.1 and Article II, Declaration of Principles andState Policies, Sections 9, 12, 14, 15 and 16 of the 1987 Constitutionof the 1987 Constitution as cited in the PPMP Directional Plan 2001-2004)
Principle of Human Agency
Individualsconstruct their ownlife course throughthe choices andactions they takewithin theopportunities andconstraints ofhistory and socialcircumstances.
Therefore
We need to
EMPOWER
people to enable them to
help themselves achieve what they want
Our Challenge
How do we ensure thatFilipinos are empowered tomake the right decisionstoward their desired goals?