What is Going on with Autonomous Vehicles? Schwarz...Waymo driverless 2018 Delphi & Mobileye...
Transcript of What is Going on with Autonomous Vehicles? Schwarz...Waymo driverless 2018 Delphi & Mobileye...
Chris SchwarzNational Advanced Driving Simulator
April 21, 2017
What is Going on with Autonomous Vehicles?
What Do We Do? Research/assess new vehicle
technology with local human subject population
Provide data to regulatory agencies and industry
Research partnerships with researchers at UI and around the world NADS-1 Dome in Bay
NADS MiniSimNADS-2 with Freightliner Heavy Truck Cab
NADS MiniSim™ Partners(Green=Vehicles, Blue=Heavy Trucks, Red=Both)
NADS, UI College of Medicine, and Library Science
University of Wisconsin Madison
• Univ of Washington• Battelle
U. of Texas-Austin (visuals)
Iowa State Univ.Hartford
Hospital Institute for Living (2)
Michigan Tech.United Tribes Technical College
CSU San Bernardino (6)
Florida State University Cognitive
Research Corporation (9)
Georgia Tech. (2)
Highland Ethanol (BP)
• General Motors (2)• Univ of Michigan• Hyundai• Honda
Driving MBA
University of South Florida
University of Chicago
NHTSA,US DOT
Clemson University
University of Kentucky
Honda Research Institute
University of Toronto
Transport Canada
University of Idaho
Garmin International
Univ of Windsor
Overseas Systems:• DGIST, S. Korea• GM, Israel
NHTSA statistics show the problem we face• In 2014, 32,675 people were killed in vehicle
crashes on US roads• NHTSA (2015), 2014 Crash Data Key Findings (Traffic
Safety Facts. DOT HS 812 219). Washington, DC
• Crash data suggests that up to 93% of crashes are caused by human error• NHTSA (2008), National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation
Survey (Report to Congress No. DOT HS 811 059). Washington, DC
The safety benefits arithmetic for automated vehicles is simple – and complicated
• # crashes reduced = # crashes prevented by AVs - # crashes caused by AVs
• Automated vehicles should be able to eliminate many crashes caused by human error (93% of all crashes)• Distraction, drowsiness, intoxicated, etc.
• What are the kinds of crashes that will be caused by automated vehicles?• Automation failures
• Transfer of control
• Mode confusion
• Misuse and abuse
An early experiment on automatic highways was conducted by RCA and the state of Nebraska on a 400 foot strip of public highway just outside Lincoln (“Electronic Highway of the Future - Science Digest (Apr, 1958)” 2013)
The National Automated Highway System was researched and demonstrated in the 1990s
A demonstration of the automated highway system in San Diego (1997). University of California PATH Program
1994-1997
The DARPA Grand Challenge proved the concept of unmanned autonomous vehicles
Grand Challenge:2004 – no winner2005 – Stanley (Stanford)
Urban Grand Challenge2007 – Boss (CMU)
The Google self-driving car disrupted the industry in 2010 with their announcement of an automated vehicle
Are automated vehicles an evolution or a revolution?
Evolution
• “Something Everywhere”
Revolution
• “Everything Somewhere”
Different challenges of automation will peak at different levels
• Level 2 doesn’t allow disengagement, but it invites it
• Level 3 allows it, but still requires timely take overs
Transfers of control can become safety critical events for automated vehicles
Expected Unexpected
Lower to Higher Button press Collision avoidance
Higher to Lower Grab wheel Automation failure
company capability yearAudi fully autonomous 2017NVIDIA level 4 2018Waymo driverless 2018Delphi & Mobileye self-driving system 2019VW self driving 2019Audi level 5 2020NuTonomy self-driving taxis in 10 cities 2020GM self driving 2020Ford level 4 2020Toyota auto-highway 2020Ford level 5 2021Nissan fully autonomous 2020BMW electric self-driving 2021
Baiduself-driving mass production 2021
Intel driverless 2022Tesla level 5 2023Jaguar & Lane-Rover fully autonomous 2024Daimler fully autonomous 2025
USDOTdriverless cars all over world 2025
Continental fully autonomous 2025Uber driverless fleet 2030Insurance Information Institute fully autonomous
2028-2032
IEEE 75% autonomous 2040 Source: driverless-future.com
Autonomous Car Forecasts
Future Challenges Remain
• Infrastructure
• Weather
• Cities
• Aftermarket
• Insurance
• Financial Services
• Testing & Certification
• Job loss
• Mobility for elderly, disabled, young
• Ethical dilemmas
• Energy
We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.- Bill Gates