What is a Good SmartSignal Model? Presented by Joe Milton Engineering Manager Reliant
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Transcript of What is a Good SmartSignal Model? Presented by Joe Milton Engineering Manager Reliant
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What is a Good SmartSignal Model?
Presented by Joe Milton Engineering ManagerReliant
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Outline
• Reliant generating fleet and OSIsoft PI infrastructure
• Virtual M&D concept • Human factors• What is a good model?• KPIs and other metrics
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Generating Fleet Location and Fuel Type
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Common Plant Historian -- OSIsoft PI
• 29 PI Servers• 203 interfaces to various systems • 1000+ process displays & reports• 350K tags (real-time data points)
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OSIsoft PI took care of history and current value but not what the value should be….
We selected SmartSignal to leverage our existing OSI PI infrastructure and predict…
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SS takes data from our PI infrastructure (like vibration, temperature, pressure, etc.) and inputs it into a software model. This model shows how a a typical piece of equipment is supposed to operate over various loads and ambient temperatures.
If the data goes outside of the predictive model, an alarm is sent to the station for further investigation.
Basically, we are making the computer do the work of scanning all of the sensors and instruments in the plant for changes in known equipment behavior.
SmartSignal Predictive Maintenance Tool
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Defining WatchList Graphing Terms: Actual, Estimate, Residual, Alert, Incident
Actual (blue) from OSI PI
Estimate (green) generated by SSC models
Residual = Actual - Est
Incident (diamond) multiple samples or sensors showing alerts; drives the WatchList
Alerts (red X) Statistically significant residual value
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Typical Results & Additional TermsVSG (green diamond) Virtual
Signal Generation was enabled
Missing Value (blue X) Signal gave NaN value
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Smart Signal – Site WatchList
Models
Can see incidents by clicking the arrow button.
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SmartSignal – Site Model Detail-Site that you are on.
-Incident List – This is a list of incidents on the models.
-Chart View –The Blue line is the actual PI data and the Green line is the model data.
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SmartSignal-Reliant Scope
• 67 coal & natural gas power units across U.S.• Total 13,450 MW power• Rotating & non-rotating balance-of-plant assets monitored• 411 assets, 1174 models• Turn 30K+ sensors to exception-based monitoring• Goals include
– Early warning of equipment faults & process problems– Maximize availability– Minimize forced outages– Improvement of unit heat rates
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Reliant’s “Virtual” M&D Center
• Staff of three working 5*8 at their own cubes:– Review WatchList– Email plants when equipment issues are detected– Tune– Build new models– Teach WatchList classes– Document issues and model changes.
• Plant champions – Look at the WatchList– Use log– Deal with the easy ones
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Typical Emails to PlantFrom: Lesley Sent: Tuesday, December 09, 2008 1:24 PM To: Scott Subject: A - PA Fan E Alerts
Thanks, Lesley Wierenga
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Typical Plant Response
From: Scott Sent: Tuesday, December 09, 2008 10:47 AM To: George, Subject: RE: Avon Lake - PA Fan E Alerts Can we have someone check the LO temps on E PA Fan LO Skid? Looks like a cooling water valve may be closed
Scott
The Plant Champion will commonly use Pi Processbook or Datalink to confirm the item and issue a work order
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Example of Full Cycle of a Catch
The oil levels are all good and the filters have been changed. The filters were dirty and the temps are dropping on the motor after the change out.
From: Sent: Thursday, November 30, 2006 1:34 PM
This is a pretty significant movement on FD Fan Motor outboard bearing (about 17 deg above expected currently).
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What is a Good Model?
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Good Model Brainstorm
What is a good SS model?
It catches changes
True machine issue (catch)
True change but not issue
False
Time scopelast 90 minutes
the next 365 days (really the next 90)
Uses As Found OSI PI data
8 to 40 points
energy and mass flow anologys
little data screening required
True
Not a problem
opperator selectable
Model problem
Seasonal
No misses
It is used
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Truth Table (Logic)
SS Catch
True Catch
SS no Catch
Machine issue
SS no Catch
No Machine issue
SS Catch
False Catch
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What is a Good Model So Far?
Modeling elements
–It has catches (detects changes)–It has no misses (or few)–It uses as-found data
Human elements
–It has engaged users
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MetricsTrue Catches
• Look at the tracking log-equipment/instrumentation catchesMissed Catches
• Long term – Use Power GADS to review major events• Was the system modeled? If not, should it be? Build it.• If modeled, review and improve the model.
No Catches & No Machine Problems• Could be a sign of a good program• Could mean just wait
False Catch• Track issues• Use log statistics and target problematic models
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Catches
*2006 catches not a full year
The table shows true catches and false catches
2006 2007 2008Equipment 47 43 82Instrument 40 151 167Model 51 124 81Model % 37% 39% 25%Total 138 318 330
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False Catch
• SmartSignal alerts indicate a change from the model data set (State matrix)-– A repair could cause a change– A new season– An operational mode change– An abnormal configuration– Or bad modeling data
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Model with False Alerts
30 40 50 60 70 80 9020
40
60
80
100
Parent
Ch
ild
Childc 1 "CW INLET B TEMP TO COND( DEG F )"
Parentp 1 "CW INLET A TEMP TO COND( DEG F )" p 1
c 12
Detailed review of this model data set found that it had two modes. A and B with the same Inlet temperature and A down stream of B
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Model with False Alerts
Detailed review of this model data set found that it had two spikes that were included in themodel.
500 1 103
1.5 103
2 103
1.8 10
3
2 103
2.2 103
2.4 103
2.6 103
Parent
Ch
ild Childc 1 "HP TURB THROTTLE 1 INLET PRESS( PSIG )"
Parentp 1 "UNIT 3 FIRST STA GE PRESS( blank )"
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Human Factors
• How can acceptance be measured? • Is the user engaged?• What are good KPIs?• How can it be made “fair” for peaking and
base load unit?
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Levels of SmartSignal Utilization
• basic level is where the WatchList Team (WLT) serves as an M&D center. Plant responds to WLT email questions about their units and WatchList items.
• the engaged user logs into the WatchList at least once a week (on average).
• The committed user logs in several times a week (on average). They also add information to the log and clear alerts from the WatchList.
• The power user exceeds the committed user level by pressing model issues and providing a dialogue about known plant repairs and changes.
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Basic Engaged Committed Power
20072008
Levels of SmartSignal Utilization 2007 – ‘08
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KPI Issues
• Terms like basic, power user work well for a full-year but they did not track seasonal units well
• We moved to a new metric that is much closer to the desired outcome– If you are running- login
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SS Login Ratio
Logins
rsServiceHouLoginRatio
“Average number of service hours between logins”
Plant 2007 2008A 122 135B 106 24C 18 26D 138 69E 22 30F 130 35G 16 17H 68 28I 16 16J 114 77K 94 41L 739 229M 882 34N 124 14O 114 232P 666 120Q 132 52R 168 67S 307 191T 358 41
Fleet Average 217 74
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Log Entries
2007
• 50% of plants had no log entries
• 78% of log entries were at one plant “C”
2008
• Only 10% have no log entries for 2008
• Log entries more evenly spread across fleet
• 119% increase in total log entries
PlantLog Entry
2007Log Entry
2008
N 1 785G 139 631C 1132 562B 0 296P 0 293M 0 183J 66 91Q 5 81D 16 78K 0 62E 43 57F 4 32R 50 14T 0 13L 0 9S 0 9I 0 3H 2 1A 0 0O 0 0
Total 1458 3203
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Lessons
• The knowledge of how the plant should run comes from how it has run (PI data)
• Keeping the messenger alive is part of the task (instruments)• Eliminate variables (do not add them)• Model to detect changes • Exception-based• Statistics-based technologies are not common in plant
environments.• Tools are not complete solutions – People still have to act
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Questions?