What future for Riverina irrigation communities - Craig Clifton
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Transcript of What future for Riverina irrigation communities - Craig Clifton
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What future for Riverina irrigation communities?Craig Clifton, Dhakshy Sooriyakumaran, Nick Schofield & Stephen Joyce
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Project overviewObjective: Assist Riverina irrigation communities plan for a
future with less waterThree stages:1. Current socio-economic
status of region & influence of recent change
2. Assess risks and opportunities associated with the future
3. Plan for sustainable communities and economy
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Project overviewStage 2: What may the future hold for Riverina irrigation
communities?Three stages:1. Current socio-economic
status of region & influence of recent change
2. Assess risks and opportunities associated with the future
3. Plan for sustainable communities and economy
• Identify key trends & drivers of change
• Develop scenarios to describe how the future may unfold
• Assess future risks and opportunities
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Riverina: a major Australian agricultural, food & beverage production region
Dryland cropping
Livestock grazing
Production Processing
Cereals $355 M $197 M
Rice $121 M
Vegetables $67 M
Fruit $199 M $127 M
Citrus $75 M
Wine grapes $110 M $400 M
Livestock
Livestock $210 M
Meat $319 M
Total $840 M $1041 MSources: ABS data; AEC 2010
Sources: BRS data; SKM 2010
Irrigation
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The community & economy are highly dependent on agriculture
Employment Economic value add
Economic value add
AgricultureFood & beverage manufacturingWaterServices to agricultureOther
Carrathool
Griffith
Sources: ABS data; AEC 2010; SKM, 2010
Employment (#EFT)Carrathool
Griffith
Economic value addCarrathool
Griffith
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Key trends: the Big Dry
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09
Lachlan River HS Lachlan River GS
Murrumbidgee River HS Murrumbidgee River GS
Rainfall anomaly Irrigation allocations
Sources: BoM data, NSW Office of Water data; SKM 2010
2001-2003 2004-2006
2007-2009
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Key trends: agriculture & food production
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
2000-01 2005-06
Carathool
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
2000-01 2005-06
Griffith
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
2000-01 2005-06
Val
ue o
f agr
icult
ural
com
mod
ities M
illio
ns
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
2000-01 2005-06
Griffith
Intensive animal
Dryland
Nurseries
Irrig-fruit
Irrig-vegetables
Irrig-crops
Sources: ABS data, AEC 2010; SKM 2010
Industry Change in value of output ($M)
Sheep -$10.4 Grains -$112.6 Beef cattle -$5.9 Other agriculture +$0.1 Services to agriculture +$3.5 Milling products & cereal foods
-$98.3
Citrus, grapes & other fruit No changeWine & other beverages No changeTotal -$223.6
Change in value of production 2005-06 to 2009-10 due to drought
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20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Key trends: population & employment
Region
Griffith
Narrandera
Carrathool
The Big Dry
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
1996
2001
2006Agriculture
Manufacturing
Retail trade
Health services
Education
Construction
All others
EmploymentPopulation
Employment losses 2005-06 to 2009-10• Agriculture – 588 jobs• Other sectors (direct/indirect) – 1231
jobs
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Drivers of changeInternational-global scale State-MDB-national scale Local-regional scale
Climate:• Natural variability• Human-induced change
Health of global economy• Demand & price for food,
fibre & minerals• Currency exchange rates• Cost of key agricultural
inputs• Trade freedom/distortion
Global population growth Global food supply &
security Technology:• ICT• Food production• Energy
Water:• Catchment inflows &
storage volumes• Planning & management• Infrastructure• Policy, politics & public
perceptions• Market operation
Population growth in major cities• Congestion• Housing affordability
Strength of Australian mining sector
Interest rates Government investment
into regions ICT infrastructure &
services
Confidence in region’s future
Entrepreneurial spirit – community leadership
Technological & management innovation in key industries
Regional development investment
Retention & attraction of population
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Drivers of changeInternational-global scale State-MDB-national scale Local-regional scale
Climate:• Natural variability• Human-induced change
Health of global economy• Demand & price for food,
fibre & minerals• Currency exchange rates• Cost of key agricultural
inputs• Trade freedom/distortion
Global population growth Global food supply &
security Technology:• ICT• Food production• Energy
Water:• Catchment inflows &
storage volumes• Planning & management• Infrastructure• Policy, politics & public
perceptions• Market operation
Population growth in major cities• Congestion• Housing affordability
Strength of Australian mining sector
Interest rates Government investment
into regions ICT infrastructure &
services
Confidence in region’s future
Entrepreneurial spirit – community leadership
Technological & management innovation in key industries
Regional development investment
Retention & attraction of population
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What might the future hold? Some alternative futures
Scenarios incorporate:• Critical uncertainties – climate & water
policy• Other regional-global scale change
drivers• ShocksPlausibility tested with stakeholders
2010 2030
Better water outcomes
Worse water outcomes
Rejuvenated Riverina
Resilient Riverina
Ruinous Riverina
Scenarios preceded Guide to MDBP
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Risks and opportunitiesKey risks• A quick step back into Big Dry –
like conditions• Run-away water trade from
region• MDBP implements large
reduction in SDL
Key opportunities• Adapted, more efficient agriculture• Increase regional value add to
agriculture• Biofuels & solar energy• Education, training & health care• Affordability options for new
industries and residents• Tourism
Options mostly not unique to Riverina region
Potential implications:• Rapid population decline• Workforce contraction• Divestment by businesses• Smaller local governments
become unviable
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Conclusions: What future for Riverina irrigation communities?
• The region will remain highly dependent on agriculture, including irrigated agriculture
• High reliability Murrumbidgee high security water & groundwater critical to region’s future
• The region will continue to track agriculture’s fortunes and misfortunes
• Griffith will continue to growth while the smaller towns & LGAs continue to decline
• The region will continue to invest in economic diversification - with limited success particularly away from Griffith & Leeton
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What future for Riverina irrigation communities?
Some critical uncertainties:• Murray-Darling Basin Plan• Future climate – next few years & long-term• The demand & price for the region’s agricultural & food
products • Confidence in the region’s future• Community leadership & entrepreneurial spirit
A future with less water is not where the Riverina irrigation communities want to be