What Ever Happened to MySQL?...–The MySQL ecosystem is now arguably more healthy and vibrant than...
Transcript of What Ever Happened to MySQL?...–The MySQL ecosystem is now arguably more healthy and vibrant than...
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
What Ever Happened to MySQL?
Matthew Aslett
Research Manager,
Data Management and Analytics
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
The 451 Group
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
• Matthew Aslett
– Research manager, data management and analytics
– With The 451 Group since 2007
– www.twitter.com/maslett
451 Research
Information Management Operational databases
Data warehousing Data caching
Event processing
Commercial Adoption of Open Source (CAOS) Open source projects
Adoption of OSS Vendor strategies
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
• MySQL vs NoSQL vs NewSQL: 2011-2015 – Assessing the competitive
dynamic
– Due any day now
– Including market sizing of the three segments
– Survey of 200+ database users
Relevant reports
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
What Ever Happened to…
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What Ever Happened to…
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– “MySQL was very much the crown jewel of the open source database world.”
– May 2008
– “there are relatively few choices for Oracle's rivals to respond to its ownership of MySQL.”
– May 2009
– “the database market is awash with open source databases with lightweight architectures targeted at Web applications.”
– April 2011
What Ever Happened to MySQL?
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
– Oracle’s MySQL business faces competition from the rest of the MySQL ecosystem
MySQL ecosystem
Competitive dynamic
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
The MySQL ecosystem
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
Oracle keeps MySQL
17% Oracle sells
MySQL 4%
More permissive
license 8%
Oracle hands MySQL to a foundation
33%
Don't care 12%
Don't know/other
26%
Survey conducted: December 2009 Sample: 347 open source software users.
MySQL users: 285
Oracle: its own worst enemy?
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
2009 2011* 2014*
Survey conducted: December 2009 Sample: 347 open source software users.
MySQL users: 285
MySQL usage (*predicted) 2009
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
Response to Oracle acquisition
Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Total sample: 205
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
Rating Oracle’s MySQL ownership
Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Total sample: 205
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– Oracle’s MySQL business faces competition from NoSQL and NewSQL technologies
NoSQL NewSQL MySQL ecosystem
Competitive dynamic
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The NoSQL ecosystem
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The NewSQL ecosystem
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– There is an assumption that NoSQL and NewSQL pose a direct, immediate threat to MySQL
– We believe the competitive dynamic is more complex
NoSQL NewSQL MySQL ecosystem
Competitive dynamic
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
– 49% of survey respondents abandoning MySQL planned on retaining or adopting NoSQL databases
– only 12.7% said they had actually deployed NoSQL databases as a direct replacement for MySQL
MySQL ecosystem
NoSQL NewSQL
Competitive dynamic
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– 33% of respondents retaining MySQL had considered, tested or deployed NewSQL database technologies
– Approximately 75% of the NewSQL revenue for 2011 is also part of MySQL ecosystem revenue
NoSQL
NewSQL
Competitive dynamic
MySQL ecosystem
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
NoSQL $20m
NewSQL $12m
MySQL ecosystem
$171m
Revenue estimates: 2011
Includes only software and support/subscription revenue.
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
NoSQL $215m
CAGR: 82%
NewSQL $112m
CAGR: 75%
MySQL ecosystem
$664m CAGR: 40%
Revenue estimates: 2015
Includes only software and support/subscription revenue.
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Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 205
Database usage 2012
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Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 205
MySQL users: 165
MySQL usage (*predicted) 2012
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 205
Predicted usage swing 2012-2017
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Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 205
MySQL users: 165
MySQL/MariaDB/Percona/Drizzle
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Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 55 MySQL abandoners
MySQL alternatives
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MySQL replacements
Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 55 MySQL abandoners
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MySQL alternatives
Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 165 MySQL users
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
NoSQL
NewSQL
MySQL ecosystem
Other
Other RDBMS
Considered/Tested/Deployed
%
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NoSQL and MySQL
Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 165 MySQL users
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Competitive dynamic
– NoSQL database technologies are largely being adopted for new projects that require additional scalability, performance, relaxed consistency and agility.
– Oracle claims no impact from NoSQL.
– Open source adoption under the competitive radar.
– Relative immaturity. NoSQL vendors claim 900 paying customers.
– If 25% of those replaced MySQL that equates to:
– <1.5% of the estimated installed base of Oracle MySQL paying customers.
– Or <0.002% of the total estimated MySQL installed base.
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NewSQL and MySQL
Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 165 MySQL users
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
Competitive dynamic
– NewSQL database technologies are, at this stage, largely being adopted to improve the performance and scalability of existing databases, particularly MySQL.
– 75% of NewSQL revenue in 2011 came from vendors that were also considered to be part of the MySQL ecosystem.
– That is expected to decline to 50% by 2015, as new databases begin to find their feet.
– Oracle is responding with additional investment in development of new features for both MySQL and MySQL Cluster.
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Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 165 MySQL users
MySQL ecosystem
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Competitive dynamic
– The MySQL ecosystem is now arguably more healthy and vibrant than it has ever been.
– A strong vendor committed to the core product and a wealth of alternative and complementary products.
– Oracle and the other MySQL support providers accounted for 84% of total MySQL ecosystem revenue in 2011, followed by MySQL-aaS providers with 7%.
– MySQL support providers will account for 59% of total MySQL ecosystem revenue in 2015.
– Followed by MySQL-aaS providers with 22%, and clustering/sharding technology providers with 11%.
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The bigger picture
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Incumbent RDBMS and other
Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 165 MySQL users
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Competitive dynamic
– The options for MySQL users have never been greater - or more confusing.
– The most common direct replacement for MySQL is PostgreSQL.
– NoSQL and NewSQL have not made a significant impact on the MySQL installed base at this stage.
– But MySQL is no longer the de facto standard for new application development projects.
– NoSQL and NewSQL pose a long-term threat to MySQL’s position as the default database for Web applications, given their use for new development projects.
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© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved
• MySQL vs NoSQL vs NewSQL: 2011-2015 – Assessing the competitive
dynamic
– Due any day now
– Market sizing
– Survey results
– @maslett
Questions?