What does wind really cost? Modeling Wind Resources In AURORAxmp.
-
Upload
epis-inc -
Category
Technology
-
view
240 -
download
0
Transcript of What does wind really cost? Modeling Wind Resources In AURORAxmp.
What Does Wind Really Cost?What Does Wind Really Cost?Modeling Wind Resources in AURORAModeling Wind Resources in AURORA
presented byRay Bliven
Power Rates ManagerBonneville Power Administration
The views presented in this presentation are those of those of the presenter anddo not necessarily represent the position of BPA on any of these issues.
Last TimeLast Time
Building a Cogeneration ResourceBuilding a Cogeneration ResourceModeling cogeneration in AURORAModeling cogeneration in AURORA
Combined Cycle Cogeneration
High Pressure Steam to Process
High Pressure Steamto Turbine
Low Pressure Steam ReturnLow Pressure Steamfor NOx Reduction
Low Pressure Steam to ProcessProcessSteam
Use
Heat RecoverySteam Generator
(HRSG)Gas TurbineExhaust Heat
Recovery
Duc
t Bur
ners
HP
Boi
ler
SCR
Econ
omiz
er
Preh
eate
r
Stac
kAmmoniafor NOx
Reduction
BFW Pump
PumpWater
Treatment
WaterSource
Mak
eup
Wat
er
Deaerator
Transformer
Generator
Transformer
Generator
NaturalGas
Supply
CompressorOutside
Air
Cumbustors
CumbustionTurbine
Gas Turbine Generator
High Pressure Steamto Turbine
Low Pressure Steamfor NOx Reduction
Water Vapor
Pump
SteamCondensate
Condensator
CoolWater
Cooling Tower
Warm Water
SteamTurbine
Last TimeLast Time
Building a Cogeneration ResourceBuilding a Cogeneration ResourceModeling cogeneration in AURORAModeling cogeneration in AURORAThis time:This time:Building a Wind ResourceBuilding a Wind ResourceModeling wind generation in AURORAModeling wind generation in AURORAExamining issues related to wind generationExamining issues related to wind generation
Project CompleteProject Complete
83 turbines at 1.8 MW each = 150 MW
Located on 165 acres in Eastern Washington
Produces 50 average megawatts
Site prep began March 2005
First turbine construction began August 2005
Project complete December 2005
Phases in Building a Wind ResourcePhases in Building a Wind Resource
Find a SiteFind a Site
Build the MachineBuild the Machine
Integrate onto the GridIntegrate onto the Grid
Find a SiteFind a Site
Location, Location, LocationLocation, Location, Location
Site Studies Site Studies ---- Wind Speed DataWind Speed Data
Permits and LeasesPermits and Leases
Build the MachineBuild the Machine
Decide Which Machine and How BigDecide Which Machine and How Big–– old technology old technology –– 600 to 660 kW600 to 660 kW–– new technology new technology –– 2 to 3 MW2 to 3 MW–– developing technology developing technology –– 5 MW5 MW
Get In LineGet In Line–– everyone seems to want wind generatorseveryone seems to want wind generators–– current order backlogscurrent order backlogs–– secondary markets developingsecondary markets developing
Costs of a Wind GeneratorCosts of a Wind Generator
Site and Site PreparationSite and Site PreparationHardwareHardwareIntegration and TransmissionIntegration and Transmission
Current estimatesCurrent estimates–– EIA EIA –– 1,200 per kW1,200 per kW–– NPCC NPCC –– 1,175 per kW1,175 per kW
Environmental ConsiderationsEnvironmental Considerations
BirdsBirdsVisualVisualNoiseNoiseEmissions??Emissions??
Wind Generation in the WestWind Generation in the West
1990 1990 –– 1,650 MW in California1,650 MW in California1999 1999 –– 1,975 MW in California + 117 MW1,975 MW in California + 117 MW2002 2002 –– 3,000 MW3,000 MW2004 2004 –– 4,000 MW4,000 MW2006 2006 –– 5,000 MW5,000 MW2007 2007 –– 8,000 MW ??8,000 MW ??2011 2011 –– 14,000 MW !!!???14,000 MW !!!???
Modeling Wind Generation in AURORAModeling Wind Generation in AURORA
Obtain hourly generation or wind speedsObtain hourly generation or wind speeds–– Wind speeds for Washington & OregonWind speeds for Washington & Oregon–– wwwwww--k12.atmos.washington.edu/k12/grayskies/nw_weather.htmlk12.atmos.washington.edu/k12/grayskies/nw_weather.html
Adjust for tower heightAdjust for tower height–– Speed increases by a factor of 1/7th with heightSpeed increases by a factor of 1/7th with height
Apply power curveApply power curve–– Power increases by a cube function with wind speedPower increases by a cube function with wind speed
Normalize to average outputNormalize to average output–– Wind speed readings arenWind speed readings aren’’t always at the wind sitet always at the wind site
Tower Height AdjustmentTower Height Adjustment
www.rpc.com.au/products/windturbines/wind_faq.htmlwww.rpc.com.au/products/windturbines/wind_faq.html
Modeling Wind Generation in AURORAModeling Wind Generation in AURORA
Choose a representative week for each monthChoose a representative week for each monthConvert each hourConvert each hour’’s generation into a forced s generation into a forced outage factor for each of the 168 hours of weekoutage factor for each of the 168 hours of weekResult is 168 hours for 12 months per siteResult is 168 hours for 12 months per siteUse monthly time series vector to refer to Use monthly time series vector to refer to appropriate weekly time series vectorappropriate weekly time series vectorFor each wind resource, point to the monthly time For each wind resource, point to the monthly time series with that resourceseries with that resource’’s forced outage values forced outage value
ExamplesExamples
Wind speed = Wind speed = mphmph 11 55 1010 1515 2020Height adjust = Height adjust = mphmph 22 77 1515 2222 3030Power curve = Power curve = kWkW 00 1010 8080 270270 640640Forced outage = Forced outage = %% 100100 9999 9292 7373 3636
Wind speed = Wind speed = mphmph 2525 3030 3535 4040Height adjust = Height adjust = mphmph 3737 4545 5252 6060Power curve = Power curve = kWkW 10001000 10001000 10001000 00Forced outage = Forced outage = %% 00 00 00 100100
AURORA setup AURORA setup –– FuelFuel
set to zero
AURORA setup AURORA setup –– AnnualAnnual
actual VOM minus Production Tax Credit
Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind OutputOutput
January 2007 – Existing Wind Resources – 5,500 MW capacity
Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind OutputOutput
Year 2007 – Existing Wind Resources – 5,500 MW capacity
Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind OutputOutput
January 2007 – Future Wind Resources – 14,000 MW capacity
Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind OutputOutput
Year 2007 – Future Wind Resources – 14,000 MW capacity
Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind PricesPrices
Avg = 78.89; Stdev = 10.2 Avg = 78.18; Stdev = 9.4
January 2007 – Existing Wind Resources – Mid-C Prices
Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind PricesPrices
Avg = 73.30; Stdev = 9.5Avg = 70.36; Stdev = 16.7
January 2007 – Future Wind Resources – Mid-C Prices
Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind PricesPrices
Avg = 80.04; Stdev = 17.4 Avg = 80.04; Stdev = 17.1
Year 2007 – Existing Wind Resources – Mid-C Prices
Results of Wind ShapingResults of Wind ShapingShaped WindShaped Wind v. v. Flat WindFlat Wind PricesPrices
Avg = 75.96; Stdev = 17.1Avg = 75.33; Stdev = 18.5
Year 2007 – Future Wind Resources – Mid-C Prices
Geographic ConcentrationGeographic Concentration
Wind generation in Washington and Oregon Wind generation in Washington and Oregon may grow to about 4,500 MW within five may grow to about 4,500 MW within five yearsyearsAlmost 3,000 MW is targeted to the eastern Almost 3,000 MW is targeted to the eastern Columbia River gorge and another 1,000 Columbia River gorge and another 1,000 MW 50 miles east of the gorgeMW 50 miles east of the gorgeHow will this concentration affect the system How will this concentration affect the system operations and market clearing pricesoperations and market clearing prices
Results of Wind DispersionResults of Wind DispersionConcentrated WindConcentrated Wind v. v. Dispersed WindDispersed Wind ProductionProduction
January 2007 – Washington/Oregon Wind Resources
Results of Wind DispersionResults of Wind DispersionConcentrated WindConcentrated Wind v. v. Dispersed WindDispersed Wind ProductionProduction
January 2007 – Washington/Oregon Wind Resources
Results of Wind DispersionResults of Wind DispersionConcentrated WindConcentrated Wind v. v. Dispersed WindDispersed Wind ProductionProduction
Year 2007 – Washington/Oregon Wind Resources
Results of Wind DispersionResults of Wind DispersionConcentrated WindConcentrated Wind v. v. Dispersed WindDispersed Wind ProductionProduction
Year 2007 – Washington/Oregon Wind Resources
How Does Wind Produce Emissions?How Does Wind Produce Emissions?
The Overlooked Environmental Cost of a Wind The Overlooked Environmental Cost of a Wind Generation Portfolio to Serve the Need for PowerGeneration Portfolio to Serve the Need for Power–– draft paper by Lincoln draft paper by Lincoln WolvertonWolverton (attached)(attached)
Premise of the paperPremise of the paper–– In a closed system, wind generation may not change the In a closed system, wind generation may not change the
amount of fossil fuel burnedamount of fossil fuel burned–– In an open system, the addition of wind generation will In an open system, the addition of wind generation will
change the system operations from base load plants to change the system operations from base load plants to cycling plantscycling plants
Testing the Premise with AURORATesting the Premise with AURORA
First, test the closed system premiseFirst, test the closed system premise–– Use AURORAUse AURORA’’s closed system dispatch feature s closed system dispatch feature
to examine two portfoliosto examine two portfoliosOne portfolio has a 100 MW wind generator and a One portfolio has a 100 MW wind generator and a 100 MW single cycle combustion turbine100 MW single cycle combustion turbine
–– Heat rate = 9500Heat rate = 9500
Other portfolio has a 100 MW combined cycle Other portfolio has a 100 MW combined cycle combustion turbinecombustion turbine
–– Heat rate = 7300Heat rate = 7300
Testing the Premise with AURORATesting the Premise with AURORA
Results:Results:–– Fossil fuel usage increases from wind case to Fossil fuel usage increases from wind case to
CCCT case by 6.6%CCCT case by 6.6%–– GHG production increases by 8.8%GHG production increases by 8.8%–– NONOxx production decreases by 73%production decreases by 73%–– SOSO22 production decreases by 33%production decreases by 33%
Testing the Premise with AURORATesting the Premise with AURORA
Next, test the open system premiseNext, test the open system premise–– Examine two casesExamine two cases
First, compare the future system with wind First, compare the future system with wind generation presentgeneration presentSecond, replace the future system wind with an Second, replace the future system wind with an equivalent amount of energy production from equivalent amount of energy production from combined cycle combustion turbinescombined cycle combustion turbines
14,000 MW of wind producing 4,135 14,000 MW of wind producing 4,135 aMWaMW of of energy replaced with combustion turbines in energy replaced with combustion turbines in each area with wind plantseach area with wind plants
Testing the Premise with AURORATesting the Premise with AURORA
Results:Results:–– Fossil fuel usage increases from wind case to CCCT Fossil fuel usage increases from wind case to CCCT
case by 5.7% across all of WECCcase by 5.7% across all of WECC–– GHG production increases by 4.0%GHG production increases by 4.0%
18.7% increase in CCCT GHG offset by 18.7% increase in CCCT GHG offset by peakerpeaker reductionsreductions
–– NONOxx production increases by 0.8%production increases by 0.8%18.2% increase in CCCT NO18.2% increase in CCCT NOx x offset by offset by peakerpeaker reductionsreductions
–– SOSO22 production increases by 0.1%production increases by 0.1%19.5% increase in CCCT SO19.5% increase in CCCT SO2 2 offset by offset by peakerpeaker reductionsreductions
Testing the Premise with AURORATesting the Premise with AURORA
Conclusions:Conclusions:–– Wind generation in the WECC is now of such Wind generation in the WECC is now of such
size that hourly modeling is an important factor size that hourly modeling is an important factor in predicting market clearing pricesin predicting market clearing prices
–– Geographic concentration of wind generation is Geographic concentration of wind generation is more expensive to more expensive to MCPsMCPs than diverse locationsthan diverse locations
–– Emissions savings from wind generation are Emissions savings from wind generation are minimized if SCCT operation increases to minimized if SCCT operation increases to regulate wind output to meet loadregulate wind output to meet load