What do we know about the global negative emissions energy ...
Transcript of What do we know about the global negative emissions energy ...
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What do we know about the global negative emissions energy system –
2050+
Michael ObersteinerICAE International Conference on Applied EnergyAugust 12-16, 2019 Västerås Sweden
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Personal entry to BECCS and NETs
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BECCS for Climate Risk Management
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Paris Agreement
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• ‘…pursue efforts to limit the (global average) temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change’.
• ‘Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions asap...and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century’
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The Global Carbon Law
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Source: Rockstroem et al. 2017, Science
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The Grand late century atmospheric restoration
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Scenario types behind the Paris Agreement Land use sectors contribution to mitigation 2oC
Source: Based on Fricko et al. 2016, GEC
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Optimal control schedule of NETs/CDR
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2000 2100
2C
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Figure 1 / 2 / 3 / 4
AR5
Annual carbon tax flows under the late CDR
scenario
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SSP
Polluter Pays
Annual subsidy flows under “The 50% rich
pay scenario”
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New Emission Pathway Archetypes
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Late Century NETs
NoOvershoot
Rapid Decarbon
ization
MinimizeNETs
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Name - Title 12
Archetypes
“Late Century CDR”f
“Rapid Decarbonization”e
“No Overshoot”f
“Minimize CDR”f
Characteristics
PEAK
2020 BECCS from 2050 Early and fast decarbonization
Early BECCS and other CDRs
Early BECCS 2025
BECCS from 2030 and other end of century
CDRs required
Fast decarbonization and late century BECCS
Early BECCS and large scale other
CDRs Early BECCS
Benc
hmar
ks
Natural land losta PE
AK 2020 26% 6% 8% 8%
2025 33% 10% g 20% 19% Potential stranded assetsb PE
AK 2020 53% 0% 0% 13%
2025 71% 31% g 2% 32%
Overshoot levelc PE
AK 2020 87 Gt C 0 Gt C 0 Gt C 22 Gt C
2025 116 Gt C 77 Gt C g 0 Gt C 56 Gt C
Backstop relianced PE
AK 2020 8-9 yrs 0 yrs 1 yr 2-3 yrs
2025 11-12 yrs 3-5 yrs g 1-2 yrs 6-7 yrs
(a) Compared to year 2000 levels; (b) Percentage of today’s primary energy consumption; (c) Gt C budget overshoot; (d) Amount of carbon emissions to be captured in the late 21st century (from 2080 onwards) expressed in years of current emissions; (e) Half-
life period of fossil emission phase out = 10 years; (f) Half-life period of fossil emission phase out = 25 years; (g) Includes late century BECCS.
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Climate feedbacksPermafrost
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Impact of permafrost feedback on remaining carbon budget
Gasser et al., 2018
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New Climate targets and pathways
Walsh et al. Nature Comm. 2017
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Overshoot and Permafrost targets
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First time Net Negative
~10% 100%PermaFrost loss 30% 50% 70% 90%
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Are countries doing their NETs homework?
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LULUCF in pledging for Paris
18Source: Forsell et al. 2016
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LULUCF in pledging for Paris
19Source: Forsell et al. 2016
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LULUCF in pledging for Paris
20No-overshoot target
Source: Forsell et al. 2016, Obersteiner et al. 2018
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Conclusion
• Current phasing of NETs as foreseen under the Paris agreement is: – Financially not plausible– Huge intergenerational equity issue– Environmentally problematic (incl. overshoot risks)
• Near-term large scale NETs deployment– Nature based solutions (afforestation)– Evidence on DAC cost draw-down?– Are there any other NET technologies we do not know about???
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..and put more NET thinking into 2050-2500
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Innovation for Energy – Carbon System