What Can Political Science Tell us about Oil-Rich Governments? Michael Ross
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Transcript of What Can Political Science Tell us about Oil-Rich Governments? Michael Ross
What can political science tell us about oil-rich governments?
Prof. Michael L. RossUniversity of California, Los Angeles
November 5, 2015
What can political science tell us about oil and democracy?
Prof. Michael L. RossUniversity of California, Los Angeles
November 5, 2015
Mahdavy 1970
• Revived concept of “rentier states”• Oil government spending dominates
economy • Oil government does not collect taxes• Oil leaders neglect development• “economic and technological backwardness”• “socio-political stagnation”
“socio-political stagnation”
• Mahdavy’s most robust insight• Research on effects of oil rents on:
– Government accountability (democracy)– Press freedom– Corruption– Both national and subnational politics
• Brazil, Iran, Indonesia, Peru, China, United States– Incidence of violent conflict
Some key insights
• The effects on accountability have grown since the 1970s
• Effects hold true across regions
Countries with least political freedomFreedom House 2015
Africa• Equatorial Guinea • Chad• Sudan• South Sudan• Eritrea• Central African Republic• Somalia
Middle East• Bahrain• Saudi Arabia• Syria
East Asia• China• Laos• North Korea
Other regions• Uzbekistan• Turkmenistan• Cuba• Belarus
Countries with least political freedomFreedom House 2015
Africa• Equatorial Guinea • Chad• Sudan• South Sudan• Eritrea• Central African Republic• Somalia
Middle East• Bahrain• Saudi Arabia• Syria
East Asia• China• Laos• North Korea
Other regions• Uzbekistan• Turkmenistan• Cuba• Belarus
Some key insights
• The effects on accountability have grown since the 1970s
• Effects hold true across regions• Oil durability of autocratic leaders
Longest-serving autocratsTeodoro Obiang (1979- )(Equatorial Guinea)
Eduardo dos Santos (1979- )(Angola)
Some key insights
• The effects on accountability have grown since the 1970s
• Effects hold true across regions• Oil durability of autocratic leaders• Transitions in oil states when revenues drop
Some key insights
• The effects on accountability have grown since the 1970s
• Effects hold true across regions• Oil durability of autocratic leaders• Transitions in oil states when revenues drop• Most successful transitions to democracy in
countries with little or no oil
Democratic Transitions in Muslim States (1960-2012)
Country Year Oil Income/capitaTurkey 1961, 1983 $8Sudan 1965, 1986 0Pakistan 1972, 1988 9Kyrgystan 1990 1Comoros 1990 0Bangladesh 1991 6Mali 1992 0Niger 1993, 1999 0Indonesia 1999 70Senegal 2000 0Tunisia 2012 134