What are the two or three most important problems and/or opportunities confronting humanity at the beginning of the 21st century?

How likely is it that humans will respond optimally to these problems and/or opportunities? What changes in how the international community works would allow us to better respond?

What are the threats to the environment?

• The good news: We should cap out the population in 2100 or so (why was Thomas Malthus wrong after all?)

• The bad news:– The bottom billion and population growth: Expect

another 2.5 billion people (equiv to the earth’s total pop in 1950)

– The relationship between development, population, and consumption: If a billion people want to turn on a single light bulb, you need to build 20 new powerplants. If they want a car, were all in trouble

– Why are countries going to perhaps reverse course and encourage population? Old people are a problem for growth and innovation (and a big problem if security issues emerge)

How should we think about the environment?

• What level of death is ok?• The politics of death and why we have a bad habit of

emphasizing the wrong things: AIDS vs. malaria, breast vs. colon cancer, Mercury vs. air pollution

• Externalities and moral hazard: Global warming as an example

• The ethics of sustainable development and the environment: Who pays? Can we afford to let “them” grow?

• Market solutions vs. regulatory approaches

In what sense is this an international problem?

• The wars of the future will be about energy and H20: Per cap, the US consumes the equiv. of 12 tons of coal a year and over 1,000 gallons of water daily

• Why does biodiversity matter: Forests and the ocean

• What is the “tragedy of the commons”? What are the global commmons?

How will we deal with this problem?

• Why is this the worst kind of problem? – Future risk and uncertainty

• Will international regulation bail us out? Not likely – Why is the failed Copenhagen summit (2009) more likely to predict future

environmental politics than the successful Montreal Protocol (1987)?– Why won’t the developing world cooperate on this issue? Do they have a

point?– Why won’t the developed world cooperate?– Why is democratization a problem… Vested and emerging interests need to

be satisfied.• Can spreading norms bail us out? Probably not• Can innovation by a single country bail us out? How can the international

community help innovation?– Which country is likely to develop the technology that will drive the 21st

century: Europe or China, but not the US?– Rich poor technology transfers– Patent protection