WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management

Akm Saiful Islam

Lecture-1: Module-1 &2 Climate System, Global Warming,

Green House gases

December, 2009

Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Module-1

Climate System and Hydrologic cycleAtmosphereCryosphere: Sea, Ice sheet, GlacierHydrosphere: River, Lakes, ocean interactionsHydrologic CycleBiosphere and Ecosystem

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Module-2

Climate variability and climate change. Global warming and green house gases Historic aspects of global climate change Climate change in South Asian context: Case

study

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Climate Systems

• The complicated system consisting of various components, including the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, the ocean, the ice and snow cover, the land surface and its features, the many mutual interactions between them, and the large variety of physical, chemical and biological processes taking place in and among these components.

• Climate refers to the state of the climate system as a whole, including a statistical description of its variations.

Atmosphere 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases. Carbon dioxide accounts for just 0.03 - 0.04%. Water vapor 0 to 2%

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Components of Climate System

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Green house gases CO2 and some other minor gases

1. Absorb some of the thermal radiation leaving the surface of the earth.

2. Emit radiation from much higher and colder levels out to space.

These radiatively active gases are known as greenhouse gases. They act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the

surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Green house effect

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Green house effect

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Green house gas effect

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Human induced climate variation Perturbations of the atmospheric composition – the

enhanced greenhouse effect Effect of aerosols:

direct effect (scattering of incoming solar radiation) indirect effect (affecting the radiative properties of

clouds)

Land-use change (agriculture, deforestation, reforestation, afforestation, urbanisation, traffic, …)

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Increasing trends of CO2

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Human induced changes of green house gases

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamGlobal temperature and Greenhouse gases

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Temperature variation past 1,000 years

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Increase of Temperature past 140 year

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Trends of increase of Temperature

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Ice melting Images gathered from the Defense

Meteorological Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right).

1979 2003

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Cracks in Ice bars

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Predicted changes of Temperature

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Trends of Precipitations

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Trends of Seal Surface temperature

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Sea Level Rise

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Emission of Green house gases Emission of Co2 Bangladesh < 0.2 ton/yr

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

Per capita responsibility of Co2