WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY. West Virginia Coal and Energy Trends.

WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY


West Virginia Coal and Energy Trends


West VirginiaCoal Production

Source: EIA

Year Coal Production (in thousand

short tons)2002 150,0782003 139,7112004 147,9932005 153,6502006 152,3742007 153,4802008 157,7782009 137,1272010 135,2202011 134,6622012 120,1382013 112,876 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Coal Production in

million short tons


West VirginiaCoal Production by County, 2013

Source: WV Office of Miner’s Health Safety and Training

Tons Produced in 2013


Source: EIA - Annual Coal Distribution Report 2013

Domestic Distribution of West Virginia Coal, 2013

Tons Distributed


Source: EIA* 2013 volume estimated by MU CBER.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Thou

sand

Sho

rt T

ons

West Virginia Coal for Foreign Distribution, 2002-2013


EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014 U.S. Coal Projections (Base Case)

• U.S. total coal production will grow an average 0.3% per year through 2040.

• U.S. coal exports will increase gradually from 126 million tons in 2012 to 160 million tons in 2035 and remain constant through 2040

• U.S. coal consumption is expected to increase 0.3% annually from 2012 to 2040, remaining between the 2011 and 2012 levels for the entire period

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014


Consensus Forecast for WV Coal Production (million short tons), 2014

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

EIA EVA CBER WVU Consensus Forecast


Coal to the WV Electric Power Sector, 2013

36,042 thousand short tons of WV coal was exported to the Electric Power Sector in other states. Source: EIA

58%

42%

Total: 29,301 thousand short tons

WV Coal Imported Coal


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

Coal Distribution to West Virginia’sElectric Power Sector, 2006-2013

Total Coal to WV Power WV Coal to WV Power Imported Coal to WV PowerSource: EIA


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

WV Coal Distribution to U.S. Electric Power Sector, 2006-2013

WV Coal to U.S Power WV Coal to WV Power


World Energy Consumption

Source: EIA International Energy Outlook


West VirginiaNatural Gas Production

Source: WV Geological and Economic Survey*West Virginia did not independently record Marcellus production before 2005.

Year Natural Gas Production

From Marcellus

Shale(in Mcf) (in Mcf)

2002 202,130,029 -*2003 202,061,508 -*2004 210,513,371 -*2005 216,934,506 853,5652006 223,149,384 4,555,2662007 233,970,534 10,065,0022008 257,301,632 19,325,8342009 265,315,404 33,640,8372010 297,876,644 74,439,1472011 400,791,090 149,915,8612012 538,759,150 301,700,0002013 742,375,637 541,300,000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Natural Gas Production in billion cubic feet


Regional Natural Gas Net Exports, 2013 (BCF)

Source: EIA and MU CBER calculations.

NY

DEMD

NJPA

OH

WV

VAKY

TN NC


U.S Natural Gas PricesHistorical Data, through Dec. 2014


Henry Hub Natural Gas PriceRecent and Projections


Source: EIA

1/4/2

013

1/26/2

013

2/17/2

013

3/11/2

013

4/2/2

013

4/24/2

013

5/16/2

013

6/7/2

013

6/29/2

013

7/21/2

013

8/12/2

013

9/3/2

013

9/25/2

013

10/17/2

013

11/8/2

013

11/30/2

013

12/22/2

013

1/13/2

014

2/4/2

014

2/26/2

014

3/20/2

014

4/11/2

014

5/3/2

014

5/25/2

014

6/16/2

014

7/8/2

014

7/30/2

014

8/21/2

014

9/12/2

014

10/4/2

014

10/26/2

014

11/17/2

014

12/9/2

014

12/31/2

0140

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Weekly Spot Prices: Appalachian Coal vs. Natural Gas

Natural Gas Northern Appalachia Central Appalachia

$/M

MBT

U


Hydro Power

Total Capacity: 463.1 MW

Hawks Nest Hydro Facility

Licensed WV Hydro FacilitiesName Capacity (MW) Licensee Waterway

Belleville 42.0 American Minicipal Power, Inc Ohio RiverDam No. 4 1.9 PE Hydro Generation LLC Potomac RiverDam No. 5 1.2 PE Hydro Generation LLC Potomac RiverHawks Nest & Glen Ferris 108.2 Hawks Nest Hydro, LLC New RiverJennings Randolph 14.0 Fairlawn Hydroelectric Co., LLC Potomac RiverLake Lynn 51.2 Lake Lynn Generation, LLC Monongahela RiverLondon/Marmet 28.8 Appalachian Power Co. (VA) Kanawha RiverMillville 2.8 PE Hydro Generation LLC Shenandoah RiverNew Martinsville 35.7 City of New Martinsville (WV) Ohio RiverRacine 47.5 AEP Generation Resources, Inc. Ohio RiverSummersville 80.0 City of Summersville (WV) Gauley RiverWillow Island L&D 35.0 American Minicipal Power, Inc Ohio RiverWinfield 14.8 Appalachian Power Co. (VA) Kanawha River


Hydro Power, Continued

Total Preliminary Permit Capacity: 66.8 MW

Opekiska Lock and Dam

Preliminary Permitted WV Hydro FacilitiesName Capacity (MW) Licensee Waterway

Hildebrand Lock & Dam 7.5 Lock+Hydro Friends Fund XLVI Monongahela RiverNew Cumberland Locks & Dam 49.8 FFP Project 121 LLC Ohio RiverStonewall Jackson 0.3 Mahoning Hydropower, LLC West Fork RiverSutton 9.2 James R. Robertson Elk River


Wind Power

NedPower Mount Storm

Operating Capacity:583.1 MW

WV Wind FarmsOperating

Name Capacity (MW) Operator CountyBeech Ridge Energy, LLC 100.5 Invenergy Services, LLC GreenbrierLaurel Mountain 97.6 AES Wind Generation, Inc. RandolphMountaineer Wind Energy Center 66.0 FPL Energy, LLC TuckerNedPower Mount Storm 264.0 Shell Wind Energy, Inc. GrantPinnacle Wind Force, LLC 55.0 Edison Mission Energy Mineral

Under ConstructionName Capacity (MW) Operator County

New Creek* 160.0 AES Wind Generation, Inc. Grant

*A construction extension was granted by the PSC in September 2014. AES Wind Generation, Inc. is looking for a buyer for the project. (Construction has been stalled since early 2012.)


Data Source: EIA Graphic created by Marshall University CBER

Net Interstate Electricity Trade (in short tons), 2012


2012 State Rankings by Net Interstate Electricity Trade Volume

Data Source: EIA Graphic created by Marshall University CBER


EIA Electric Trends

• EIA expects total U.S. generation of electricity to grow by 1.1% in 2015 and 0.9% in 2016.

• The share of generation fueled by coal falls from 39.0% in 2014 to 37.6% in 2016.

• Natural-gas-fired generation accounted for a 27.3% share of total generation during 2014 and is expected to increase to a 28.1% share in 2016 as a result of declining natural gas prices.

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2014


Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Conventional C

oal

Integrated Coal-G

asifica

tion Combined Cycle (IG

CC)

Natural G

as-fire

d Conventional C

ombined Cycle

Natural G

as-fire

d Conventional C

ombustion Turb

ine

Advance

d Nucle

arW

ind

Solar P

V0

20406080

100120140

Levelized Cost of Electricity for New Generation Resources, Projected for 2019

2012

$/M

Wh


Source: EDGAR, Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research

World CO2 Emissions – The Top 10(million metric tons)

2010 2013 Change China 8,693 10,281 18%U.S. 5,500 5,298 -4%India 1,776 2,072 17%Russian Federation 1,710 1,803 5%Japan 1,237 1,361 10%Germany 822 845 3%Korea, Republic of 591 627 6%Canada 553 551 0%Brazil 435 512 18%Indonesia 451 487 8%


Source: EIA Monthly Energy Review, December 2014

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Consumption

36%

23%

42%

2010

Coal Natural Gas Petroleum

32%

26%

42%

2013

Coal Natural Gas Petroleum


EPA 40 CR Part 60

EPAClean Power Plan Proposed Rule

• Tasks state environmental agencies to develop a plan that will reduce carbon emissions from existing power plants.

• Emissions reduction goals set by EPA.• Emissions reduction targets to be met by 4 “building

blocks.”– Electric Generating Unit (EGU) heat rate improvement– Re-dispatch coal-fired generation to natural gas combined cycle

Generation– Expand low- or zero-carbon (renewable) generating capacity– Expand use of demand side-efficiency


EPA Clean Power Plan TSD

EPAClean Power Plan Proposed Rule

Environmental Protection Agency Clean Power Plan: West Virginia Goals

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

MWh

Existing and Incremental Renewable Net Electric

Generation2,451,206 2,874,262 3,370,334 3,952,023 4,634,107 5,433,912 6,371,756 7,471,464 8,760,972 10,273,036

% of Avoided MWh Sales

Demand Side Energy Efficiency 1.77% 2.62% 3.60% 4.70% 5.83% 6.86% 7.81% 8.66% 9.43% 10.11%

West Virginia Proposed Goals

EGU Heat Rate Improvement: 6%Redispatch Coal Generation: 0 MWh (No NGCC)


Clean Power Plan Renewable Energy Goals for West Virginia

Total EPA Goal

Feasible New Wind

Feasible New

Biomass

Feasible New

Hydro

Installed Solar or Purchased Wind to

Meet Goal

2030 MWh 10,273,026 760,368 595,680 440,102 8,476,876% of Goal 100% 7.4% 5.8% 4.3% 82.5%Additional Installed MW

6,983 310 200 123 650 (solar)3,100 (purchased

wind)Capacity Factor 28% 34% 41% 15% (solar)

28% (wind)

Estimates of Feasible Additions to Wind, Hydro and Biomass Energy & Net Needed to Meet Goal


Thank you.

WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY. West Virginia Coal and Energy Trends.

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Transcript of WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY. West Virginia Coal and Energy Trends.