Were
Transcript of Were
March 24, 2011
nbkcapi ta l .com
QATAR elecTRiciTy And wATeR coMpAny
Stability
key dATA
Fair Value per share (QAR) 144.00Closing Price (QAR) * 129.7052-week High / Low (QAR) 136.30/101.00YTD / 12-month return 1.6%/25.7%P/E (TTM) 11.2Market Cap (QAR Millions) 12,970 Shares Outstanding (Millions) 100 Free Float 36%Reuters / Bloomberg QEWC.QA / QEWS QD
*As of March 24, 2011. Sources: Bloomberg and NBK Capital
key MeTRicS
2010A 2011F 2012F 2013FEPS (QAR) 11.6 12.2 13.0 13.9EPS Growth 26% 5% 7% 7%P/E 11.2 10.7 10.0 9.4Dividend Yield 5% 5% 5% 6%EV/EBITDA 13.2 11.5 10.9 10.8
Revenue (QAR Millions) 3,430 4,320 4,543 4,606Revenue Growth 29% 26% 5% 1%
EBITDA (QAR Millions) 1,883 2,175 2,286 2,312EBITDA Growth 36% 15% 5% 1%EBITDA Margin 55% 50% 50% 50%
Sources: Company financial statements and NBK Capital
QUARTeRly foRecASTS
QAR Millions 1Q2010A 4Q2010A 1Q2011F 2Q2011FRevenue 593 1,086 978 1,050 EBITDA 317 547 460 525
Source: NBK Capital
RebASed peRfoRMAnce
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
MSCI Qatar Qatar Electricity
Sources: MSCI, Bloomberg, and NBK Capital
**Please refer to page 6 for recommendations and risk ratings.
HigHligHTS
fair Value: QAR 144
Recommendation: Accumulate – Risk level**: 2
Reason for Report: fy2010 Update
• Qatar Electricity and Water Company (QEWC) reported strongfinancial results for2010asthecompanyreceivedaboostfromnewcapacityadditionsandtheconsolidationof Ras Laffan Power Company (RLPC) in 4Q2010. Totalrevenue reached QAR 3.4 billion in FY2010, 29% above FY2009and9.5%aboveourforecasts.EBITDAincreasedby 33% in FY2010 to QAR 1.9 billion, a result that is ahead of our forecast by 13.8%.Moreover, net income stood atQAR 1.2 billion in FY2010, 23% above FY2009 and 2.9% belowourforecast.
• QEWCisaleadingutilitycompanyintheGulfCooperationCouncil (GCC) with long-term purchase agreements with Kharamaa, the sole distributor of electricity and water inQatar. Accordingly, QEWC has a stable revenue stream, as thecompanyisnotexposedtofluctuations indemandforelectricity and water. QEWC is a capacity provider and does not engage with the end-user, which makes the company a low-riskbusiness.Moreover,QEWChasbeenshieldedfromregional unrest, and operations remain normal.
• In 2010, QEWC saw major operational developments: a) the MesaieedPowerPlant(power-generatingcapacityof2,007MWh) became fully operational in 4Q2010, b) the firstphaseofRasGitras(whichwillbethelargestpowerplantinQatar upon completion) was completed, and c) ownership in RLPCincreasedfrom25%to80%.
• Weareforecastinga26%increaseinrevenuetoQAR4.3billion forQEWC in2011,mainlydrivenbynewcapacityadditions and the full consolidation of RLPC. On anoperational level, we are forecasting EBITDA to grow by15.5% to QAR 2.2 billion in 2011, while we are expecting a dropintheEBITDAmarginfrom54.9%in2010to50.3%in2011(mostlyduetotheaccountingtreatmentofthenewplantsasfinanceleases).
• QEWC remains a good dividend play. In 2010, the company announced a higher-than-expected dividend payment ofQAR6per share,9%above our forecast ofQAR5.5pershare,and20%aheadoflastyear’spayment.Thistranslatesinto a dividend payout of 52% and a dividend yield of4.6%.For2011,weareexpectingadividendpaymentof QAR6.5pershare,whichhasanimpliedyieldof5%.OurnewfairvalueofQAR144pershareforQEWCrepresentsan11%upsidepotentialfromthelastclosingprice(March24,2011);hence,ournewrecommendationforthestockis “Accumulate.”
Analysts
Samir Murad, CFA
T. +965 2259 5145E. [email protected]
Wadie Khoury
T. +965 2259 5118E. [email protected]
Utilities – Qatar Electricity and Water CompanyMarch 24, 2011
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VAlUATion
Our12-monthfairvalueestimateforQEWC’ssharepriceincreasedby10%andcurrentlystandsatQAR144per share. The fair valuederived from thediscounted cashflow (DCF) valuationincreasedby13%whilethevaluegeneratedfromthepeercomparisonmethodsawadeclineof2%.Giventhatourfairvalueestimateis11%abovethelatestmarketprice,ourrecommendationforQEWCis“Accumulate.”
Figure 1 Fair Value per Share
Weight Value Weight Value
Discountedcashflow 80% QAR 129 80% QAR 146 13%
Peer comparison 20% QAR 136 20% QAR 133 -2%
Weighted average fair value 100% QAR 131 100% QAR 144 10%
Valuation MethodOld New
Change
Source: NBK Capital
Strong financial performance in 2010 comes in higher than expected
QatarElectricityandWaterCompany(QEWC)reportedstronger-than-expectedfinancialresultsforFY2010. Total revenue reached QAR 3.4 billion in FY2010, 29% above FY2009 and 9.5% above ourforecasts,primarilyduetonewcapacitythatcameonlinein4Q2010andtheconsolidationoftheRasLaffanPowerCompany(RLPC).
The power generation and water desalination operations continued to show strong growth in revenueforFY2010;eachgrewby19%.However,thehighestgrowthcamefromleaseincome,whichmorethandoubledduetotheaccountingtreatmentofthenewplantsasfinanceleases.Asaresult,leaseincome’scontributiontorevenueincreasedfrom7.7%in2009to15.1%in2010.
At the operating level, the company reported 33% year-on-year growth in EBITDA to QAR 1.9 billioninFY2010,aresultthatisaheadofourforecastofQAR1.6billionby13.8%.Moreover,netincomestoodatQAR1.2billioninFY2010,23%aboveFY2009and2.9%belowourforecast.
QEWCcontinues todemonstrate itsability togeneratestrongcashflowfromoperations.CashflowfromoperationsremainedpositiveatQAR1.2billionin2010,slightlylowerthanQAR1.3billion in 2009.
Figure 2 Income Statement
2009 2010 YoY FY2009 FY2010
Electricity 1,515,516 1,801,027 19% 57% 53%Water 931,294 1,110,739 19% 35% 32%Lease Income from Plants 204,058 518,468 154% 8% 15%
Sales 2,650,868 3,430,234 29% 100% 100%CostofGoodsSold (1,535,409) (1,891,517) 23% -58% -55%Gross Profit 1,115,459 1,538,717 38% 42% 45%General and Admin. Expenses (162,504) (166,652) 3% -6% -5%ShareofProfitsfromAssociates 46,619 31,946 -31% 2% 1%EBITDA 1,408,230 1,866,817 33% 53% 54%Depreciation 408,656 462,806 13% 15% 13%EBIT 999,574 1,404,011 40% 38% 41%Finance Cost (194,466) (465,618) 139% -7% -14%Other 139,766 228,472 63%Net Income 944,874 1,166,865 23% 36% 34%
QAR '000
Full Year Common Size
Source: QEWC
Our new 12-month fair value
for QEWC is QAR 144
Power generation and water
desalination operations
continued to show strong
growth in revenue; however,
the highest growth came from
lease income
Utilities – Qatar Electricity and Water CompanyMarch 24, 2011
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Qewc has been shielded from regional unrest, and operations remain normal
QatarhasnotbeenaffectedbytheunrestthathasswepttheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)region. Thus, QEWC,which operates solely inQatar, has been shielded from the geopoliticaleventsthathavebeentakingplacesincetheonsetof2011.QEWCisresponsibleforgeneratingpower and desalinizing water in Qatar, with long-term purchase agreements with Kahramaa (the government entity responsible for distributing electricity andwaterwithinQatar). As a result,QEWChasasecurerevenuestreamandcashflowfromoperationsthatarenotexposedtothefluctuationsindemandforelectricityandwater.Moreover,54%ofthecompanyisownedbytheGovernmentofQatar(directandindirectstake),whichfurtherstrengthensthecompany’spositionin the local market.
Major developments in Qewc’s portfolio in 2010
In 2010, QEWC saw major developments in its operations: a) the Mesaieed Power Plant (power- generatingcapacityof2,007MWh)becamefullyoperationalin4Q2010,b)thefirstphaseofRasGitras (which will be the largest power plant in Qatar upon completion) was completed, and c) theownershipstakeintheRasLaffanPowerCompany(RLPC)increasedfrom25%to80%.Onaproportionalbasis,thesepowerplantsadded2,040MWhofelectricity,bringingQEWC’stotalpower-generatingcapacity (onaproportionalbasis) to5,471MWh.RasGitras, thefinalplantinthecompany’spipeline, isexpectedtobeinauguratedin2Q2011andraisethecompany’sproportionate power-generating capacity to 5,875 MWh.
Market Update – power Surplus in Qatar
According toMEED’sArabianPowerandWaterMarketReport for2011,Qatar is the fastest-growingpowermarketintheregionwith7,900MWhofcapacityandareservemarginof36%(the reservemargin ismeasuredagainstpeakdemand for electricity).MEEDdata shows thatpeak power demand in Qatar increased by 12% in 2010 to 5,095 MWh. However, Kharamaa forecasts thatQatar’sexistingpowercapacity issufficient tomeet futuredemanduntil2015.MEEDexpectsthatanewfacilitywith2,000MWhcapacitymaybetenderedin2011,forwhichconstructionwillbeginin2013.WeexpectthatQEWCwillbepartofaconsortiumthatisawardedthecontractforthenewfacility,asisthecaseforallpreviouspowerprojectsinQatar.Allofourrevenueforecastsarebasedonexistingprojects.WedidnotincludeanygreenfieldprojectsthatQEWC has expressed interest in, such as expanding into countries outside Qatar. We will begin to incorporatenewcapacityintoourforecastoncetheprojectsareformallyannounced.
2011 forecasts
Weareforecastinga26%increaseinrevenuetoQAR4.3billionforQEWCin2011,mainlydrivenbynewcapacityadditionsandthefullconsolidationofRLPC.However,in2011,weexpectleaseincomefromplantstoshowthelargestgrowthinrevenueduetothefullimpactoftheMesaieedPowerPlantandRLPC.Moreover, thecompletionofRasGitras in2Q2011providesa furtherboosttoleaseincomein2011.Asaresult,weareforecasting80%growthinleaseincomein2011,whichincreasesthesegment’scontributiontorevenuefrom15.1%in2010to22%in2011.
Onanoperationallevel,weareforecastingEBITDAtogrowby15.5%toQAR2.2billionin2011,whileweareexpectingadropintheEBITDAmarginfrom54.9%in2010to50.3%in2011.The450-basispointdropintheEBITDAmarginstemsmostlyfromtheaccountingtreatmentofthenewplantsasfinanceleases.
Utilities – Qatar Electricity and Water CompanyMarch 24, 2011
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AllofQEWC’splantsarebuiltbyusingprojectfinancing;whereby,interestiscapitalizedduringtheconstructionphase.AsaresultofthecompletionofQEWCprojects,weareexpectinginterestexpense to jump 38% in 2011. In our opinion, this increase will limit net income growth to 4.6% in2011,withthenetincomemargindroppingto28%in2011from33.9%in2010.
A higher-than-expected dividend payment for 2010
The long-term take-or-pay agreements with Kahramaa have enabled QEWC to consistently produce positivecashflowfromoperationsandincreasedividendpaymentsonayearlybasis.QEWChasrepeatedly increased dividend payments by QAR 0.5 per share between 2006 and 2009 to reach QAR 5 per share in 2009. In 2010, the company announced a higher-than-expected dividend payment ofQAR6per share,9%above our forecast ofQAR5.5per share, and20%aheadof lastyear’spayment.This translates intoadividendpayoutof52%andadividendyieldof4.6%.Webelievethatthehigher-than-expecteddividendpayoutwasaresultofthenearingofthecompletionQEWC’splannedcapacityexpansions (RasGitras is the lastconfirmedprojectinQEWC’spipeline).Forourforecasts,wehaveassumedthatQEWCwillreverttoitspreviousdividendpolicyofincreasingdividendsinincrementsofQAR0.50peryear.
Figure 3 Dividend Payout
3.54.0
4.55.0
6.0
45%
65%
59%
53%52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
QA
R
Dividend Per Share [LHS] Payout Ratio Ratio [RHS]
Source: QEWC and NBK Capital
The company announced a
higher-than-expected dividend
payment of QAR 6 per share
in 2010
Utilities – Qatar Electricity and Water CompanyMarch 24, 2011
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finAnciAl STATeMenTS
Balance Sheet (QA R M i l l io ns )
Fiscal Year Ends December 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ASSETS
Cash 2,307 2,074 1,218 1,430 1,478 1,834 1,651
Receivables 432 1,454 691 727 737 747 757
Total Inventory 274 295 331 348 354 360 366
Finance Lease Receivable 3,848 11,836 13,105 12,890 12,658 12,408 12,138
Property/Plant/Equipment, Total - Net 10,664 5,974 7,308 6,988 6,688 8,261 9,750
Long Term Investments 275 358 358 358 358 358 358
Goodwill and Intangilbes - 133 133 133 133 133 133
Other Long-Term Assets, Total 247 - - - - - -
TOTAL ASSETS 18,048 22,123 23,143 22,874 22,406 24,100 25,152
LIABILITIES & EQUITY
Accounts Payable 1,667 2,315 2,313 1,932 1,691 1,457 1,441
Short-Term Debt 668 1,513 1,147 1,103 1,028 1,131 1,178
Other Current Liabilities 1,209 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813
Long-Term Debt 10,823 12,446 13,190 12,680 11,824 13,009 13,551
Minority Interest - 176 186 190 194 197 201
Other Liabilities 92 98 114 130 144 161 180
Total Liabilities 14,458 18,361 18,764 17,848 16,695 17,769 18,365
Total Equity 3,590 3,763 4,380 5,026 5,711 6,331 6,787
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 18,048 22,123 23,143 22,874 22,406 24,100 25,152
Historical Forecast
Income Statement (QA R M i l l io ns )
Fiscal Year Ends December 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Revenue 2,651 3,430 4,320 4,543 4,606 4,669 4,733
Operating expenses (1,265) (1,547) (2,145) (2,257) (2,294) (2,329) (2,366)
Depreciation/Amortization (409) (463) (466) (470) (450) (527) (611)
Operating Income 977 1,421 1,708 1,816 1,862 1,812 1,756
Interest (Expense) Income (54) (331) (552) (579) (536) (501) (558)
Other (1) 77 82 82 82 82 82
Minority Interest - (4) (22) (23) (23) (23) (24)
Net Income 922 1,163 1,217 1,296 1,385 1,370 1,256
Historical Forecast
Cash Flow Statement (QA R M i l l io ns )
Fiscal Year Ends December 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cash from Operating Activities 1,525 1,674 1,630 2,067 2,288 2,339 2,604
Cash from Investing Activities (3,954) (1,996) (1,656) (16) (14) (1,955) (1,950)
Cash from Financing Activities 3,120 90 (831) (1,839) (2,226) (29) (837)
Historical Forecast
Sources: Company’s financial statements and NBK Capital
Utilities – Qatar Electricity and Water CompanyMarch 24, 2011
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RiSk And RecoMMendATion gUide
RecoMMendATion UpSide (downSide) poTenTiAl
BUY MORE THAN 20%
ACCUMULATE BETWEEN 5% AND 20%
HOLD BETWEEN -10% AND 5%
REDUCE BETWEEN -25% AND -10%
SELL LESS THAN -25%
RiSk leVel
low RiSk HigH RiSk
1 2 3 4 5
diSclAiMeR
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Kuwait
National Bank of Kuwait SAKAbdullah Al-Ahmed StreetP.O.Box95,Safat13001Kuwait City, KuwaitT. +965 2242 2011F. +965 2243 1888Telex:22043-22451NATBANK
inTeRnATionAl neTwoRk
Bahrain
National Bank of Kuwait SAKBahrain BranchSeefTower,Al-SeefDistrictP.O. Box 5290, Manama, BahrainT. +973 17 583 333F. +973 17 587 111
Saudi Arabia
National Bank of Kuwait SAKJeddah BranchAl-Andalus Street, Red Sea PlazaP.O. Box 15385Jeddah 21444, Saudi ArabiaT. +966 2 653 8600F. +966 2 653 8653
United Arab Emirates
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Jordan
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Lebanon
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Iraq
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