“We’re running out of oil!” Harold Ickes, US Secretary of the Interior,...
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Tim Carr “We’re running out of oil!” Harold Ickes, US Secretary of the Interior, 1943
Transcript of “We’re running out of oil!” Harold Ickes, US Secretary of the Interior,...
Tim Carr
“We’re running out of oil!” Harold Ickes, US Secretary of the Interior, 1943
My Predictions & Observations
My Biases
Fire Warmth, Cooking, Forge Metals, Long Life
Heat Engine Power, Speed, Flight
Chemistry Fertilizer Plastics, etc., etc.
Emissions Management Particulates SOx, NOx, Hg CO2
Pieter Paul Rubens: ''Prometheus Bound”
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Demographic Challenge
Supply Challenge Resource is Adequate
Fossil Fuel (Required)
Non-Fossil (Needed)
Nuclear & Alternative
Emissions Challenge
Technology Challenge
Energy Transitions/Revolutions Centuries to Decades
Energy – Basis for Civilization CO2 Capture and Storage: Not This Simple
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End of Last Ice Age
Invention of Plow Begining of
Iron Age
Invention of Steam Engine
Subsurface Coal Mining
Writing
Pottery
Mathematics
Begining of Bronze Age
UNDP 2013 and Various Sources 5
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13 a
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Clock built by my Great-Great-Great Grandfather and the same clock today in my parent’s house.
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World Population
Medium FertilityForecast
My Birth 2.5 Billion
My Father's Birth
1.8 Billion
My Son's Birth
5.2 Billion
My Father's 91st Birthday
7.2 Billion
My 91st Birthday 8.3-9.1 Billion
My Son's 91st Birthday
7.6-10.5 Billion
UNDP 2013 and Various Sources
宁为太平犬，莫作乱离人
I think I may fairly make two postulata, First that food is necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, that the passion between the sexes is necessary, and will remain nearly in its present state…. Assuming then, my postulata as granted, I say , that the power of Population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Thomas Malthus, 1798
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UNDP 2013 and Various Sources
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World Population
Industrial Revolution
Drake's Oil Well
First Marcellus Well
Subsurface Coal Mining
Automobile Electrical Systems
Antibiotics Wright Brothers; Flight
DNA Discovered
Man Lands on the Moon
PCs
Human Genome Project
Internet TCP/IP
Integrated Circuit
Digital Cellular Phone
Cloning Dolly the Sheep
Discovery Higgs Boson
"Standard Model"
End of Roman Empire
(Western)
Tang Dynasty
Golden Age
Fertilizer Haber Process
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宁为太平犬，莫作乱离人
India
Trinidad & Tobago
Brunei
Kuwait
Canada
United States
Luxembourg
Qatar
Australia
Iceland
RussiaFrance
Japan
Norway
Oman
Switzerland
UAE
Denmark
China0
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GDP per capita (current US$)
2011 Data
OECD/IEA, 2013 & UNDP 2013
~5.4 billion people
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Finland
Sweden Canada
Russia
US
Norway
Australia Kuwait
Congo DR
Japan
Togo
South Africa
Kazakhstan
Botswana45
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Life
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Annual Electricity Use (kWh/capita)
OECD/IEA, 2013 & UNDP 2013
2011 Data
~5.4 billion people
“It’s amazing what clean water and a bit of extra food gets you.” Hans Berger Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
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UruguayBrunei Bahrain
Qatar
Ethiopia
Tunisia
Syria
Kuwait
Togo
Tanzania
Iran
Singapore
Oman
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Annual Electricity Use (kWh/capita)
Senegal
Mozambique
Senegal
Mozambique
Iraq
OECD/IEA, 2013 & UNDP 2013
2011 Data
~5.4 billion people
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Energy 2010 – 524 Quads 244 million barrels oil per day eqv.
Energy 2020 – 630 Quads 292 million barrels oil per day eqv.
Energy 2040 – 820 Quads 381 million barrels oil per day eqv.
Energy – Basis for Economy
Energy – Basis of Health
Energy – Basis for Civilization
2013 China almost half of the world's coal consumption
2013 China 20 million new vehicles (14% Increase)
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Today, 1.6 billion people –one quarter of the world population have no access to electricity.
In 2030, 1.4 billion people 17% of the world population will still not have electricity.
2.4 billion people rely on traditional biomass – wood, agricultural residues and dung – for cooking and heating.
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OECD ~207 gigajoules/person/year
~4 gallons oil/person/day
Non OECD ~50 gigajoules/person/year
~3 pints oil/person/day
~100 gigajoules/person/year for healthy life
Assume everyone on the earth at 100 gigajoules would require a 56% increase in energy production
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15 EIA - International Energy Outlook 2014
"suggesting that renewables will let us phase rapidly off fossil fuels in the United States, China, India, or the world as a whole is almost the equivalent of believing in the Easter Bunny and Tooth Fairy.” James Hansen (grandfather of climate change) 16
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On Friday, December 5 1952, a dense smoke-filled fog shrouded London and it hung over the city for the next four days. London came to a standstill. Over 4,000 people died, motor vehicles were abandoned, trains were disrupted, and airports were forced to close.
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In Donora, Pennsylvania, in of October of 1948, after a killer fog caused 20 deaths, the government took heed and began air clean up.
Carnegie Museum of Art, Claude Monet's "Waterloo Bridge, London" (1903)
Ph
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Donora, PA noon, 10/29/1948
Pittsburgh, circa 1910
20 DIED. THE GOVERNMENT TOOK HEED.
IN 1948, A KILLER FOG SPURRED AIR CLEANUP
Philadelphia Inquirer
SO2 tpy NOx tpy PM tpy Hg lbs/y
1970’s 56,174 18,256 1,739 107
1980’s 13,452 10,762 451 75
1990’s 6,726 5,381 361 50
VCHEC 604 1,920 329 5
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Where oil is first found is, in the final analysis, in the mind. Wallace Pratt (1885–1981)
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Source: BENTEK Crude Awakening/EIA 22
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Source US-DOE, EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, April, 2014
"The battle to feed humanity is already lost, in the sense that we will not be able to prevent large-scale famines in the next decade.“
Paul Ehrlich, 1968
Predict catastrophe no sooner than five years hence but no later than 10 years away, soon enough to terrify but distant enough that people will forget if you are wrong.
Greg Easterbrook, 1995
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Petroleum Geoscience Take Home Ideas
Energy Professionals Have a Critical Role in the in the History and Future of Civilization
The Challenges Supply Challenge - Demographics
Emissions Challenge
Technology Challenge
Ignore Doomsayers "Gold is where you find it, according to an old
adage, but judging from the record of our experience, oil must be sought first of all in our minds.“ Wallace Pratt
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Assignments
No Homework accepted after 5:00pm 5/1
Final Thursday 5/7 at 3:00-5:00pm
SEI is online Appreciate if you will Fill Out.
Suggestions on Course Encouraged.
Desperate Leaps are Not Necessary
Or
Natural Selection Fails to Work
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