Bringing Science to the Art of Underwriting™TM

Welcome to Earthquake Country: Impact of future quakes

Mary Lou Zoback, Ph.D.Vice President, Earthquake Risk ApplicationsRisk Management SolutionsNewark, CA

Joint BARCfirst-BENS-BRMA Infrastructure Symposium June 25th, 2009

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1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta simulation – Brad Aagaard, USGS

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Available at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/1989

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1906 M7.9 simulation – Brad Aagaard, USGS

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Available at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/1906

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FORECAST: Major earthquake likely in the next 30 years

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Major Faults in the San Francisco Bay Area

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Measuring plate motion directly

with GPS

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Mean Recurrence Past 12 quakes

165 ± 61 yrs

Past 5 quakes138 ± 58 yrs

Past 9 quakes 151 ± 64 yrs

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18,

(1836-1906)70

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FORECAST: Major earthquake likely in the next 30 years

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Past 5 quakes

1906 M7.9 simulation – Brad Aagaard, USGS

Silicon Valley perspective

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Available at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/1906

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Simulation of the 1906 Earthquake (Shawn Larsen, Lawrence Livermore National Lab)Directivity =

Energy focused in direction of fault rupture

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1906 - The Big One The Bad One(Shawn Larsen, Lawrence Livermore National Lab)

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Vulnerable to floods - 1986

California’s Levee Problem strong shaking causes liquefaction and collapse Bay salt water rushes in shuts down drinking water for 2/3 Californians

(20-30% S CA water supply)

Torres et al. (2000)

Sacramento

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WHO WILL PAY?

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HurricanesPast

Quakes Quake Scenarios

$0.0

Historic losses from public records, scenario losses from RMS RiskLink 9.0

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HurricanesPast

Quakes Quake Scenarios

$0.0

Historic losses from public records, scenario losses from RMS RiskLink 9.0