Weiss, Dieter, Ibn Khaldun on Econ Transformation

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Ibn Khaldun on Economic Transformation1IIiiiiil..1IiiiII@

DieterWeissInternational Journal ofMiddle East Studies, Vol. 27, No. 1. (Feb., 1995), pp. 29-37.

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Int. J. Middle East Stud. 27 (1995), 29-37. Printed in the United States ofAmerica

Dieter Weiss

IBN KHALDUN ON ECONOMICTRANSFORMATION

A number of Arab countries have been exposed to structural adjustment programs.Under the guidance of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, theseprograms are aimed at making various kinds of Arab socialist and mixed-economyregimes more "market-friendly," a policy that started in the 1950s and 1960s in countries like Algeria, Tunisia, Syria, and Egypt.! Considering the mounting social tension that results from continuing population growth, urban agglomeration, andunemployment, it would be naIve to expect-with Fukuyama-an "end of history"as most countries try to adopt market regimes and to strengthen civil society andparliamentary democracy. As Ibn Khaldun (1332-1406) well knew, economic andsocial change is a never-ending process. In the search for viable and sustainablestrategies it may be stimulating to consider the insights of this great scholar of theArab world who wrote 600 years ago.

IBN KHALDUN'S SOC IAL SYSTEMS THEORYIbn Khaldun was born in Tunis into an influential clan of South Arabian origin withsubstantial influence in Islamic Spain and, after the fall of Seville in 1248, in northwestern Africa. He was exposed to the turmoils of his time. He held his first position in 1352 at the court at Tunis at the age of 20 and then went on to high political ,administrative, diplomatic, and judicial posts in the service of various rulers in theMaghrib, Spain, and Egypt. From 1375 to 1378, tired of politics and the hazards ofpublic life, he wrote his "History of the World" (Kitiib al-Cibar); its famous introduction (Muqaddima) was completed in 1377.Ibn Khaldun's career supplies the background for his attempt to condense his

torical experience into a system of scientific rules determining the rise and declineof social systems2 and to explain the patterns of historical change (1: 11, 71).3 Heaims at a new science of the genesis and decline of cultures (Um al-Cumriin). Thisscience, according to Ibn Khaldun, should have its own subject matter-human society-and its own problems-social transformations (l:7, 77). In modern terms hedeals with processes that recur cyclically during relatively normal phases, but fromtime to time undergo sharp ruptures leading to fundamental changes of the systems.DieterWeiss teaches in the Department of Economics, Freie Universitat Berlin, Boltzmannstr. 20,14195Berlin, Germany. 1995 Cambridge University Press 0020-7438/95 $7.50 + .10


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30 Dieter WeissHe himself had witnessed these in the form of the Black Death (which hit Tunis in1348-49), the Mongol invasion, and the political and economic rise of Europe.The core concept of Ibn Khaldun's social theory is ca:jabiyya (group feeling, social cohesion),4 which, according to him, is the decisive force behind the rise of acivilization. Today ca:jabiyya can be applied to economic development: that is, itcan be construed as combining the commitment by leaders to development with apeople's strong motivation to achieve. The success or failure of development strategies during the last four decades has in fact been determined by these two factorsrather than by conventional economic categories such as capital, natural resources,and (unskilled) labor. For Ibn Khaldun, ca:jabiyya emerges spontaneously amongrelatives and tribes. It is a relationship between persons who support each other.cA:jabiyya can also extend to clients and allies when mutual interest is involved(1:264, 270).

Social cohesion, group feeling, and solidarity create the basis for cooperation. Apolitical leader supported by a sufficiently effective ca:jabiyya can succeed infounding a new dynasty. Cooperation is essential for building efficient social organization, and therefore it becomes more and more important as the state develops. The difference in the quality of ca:jabiyya determines the difference in size andquality of the civilization. After having reached its height, ca:jabiyya necessarilygrows weaker as a result of a web of psychological, social, economic, and politicalfactors. It is a process of degradationS and corruption in which luxury plays aprominent role. The decline of the old civilization allows for the rise of a competing new one.

Ibn Khaldun's insights are strikingly modern: four decades of economic development in some 150 countries have made it clear that social cohesion based on a reliable sociocultural consensus and the satisfaction of basic needs of the populationis in fact the decisive factor of success. Other elements are the commitment of theruling elites to development and a framework of suitable macroeconomic condit ions-both subject to a number of contemporary structural adjustment programsand the cultural disposition and qualification of the human factor linked with educational traditions, practice-oriented curricula, and achievement-oriented values.

IBN KHALDUN'S OBSERVATIONS ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTIn 1776, Adam Smith published his Inquiry into the Nature and the Causes of theWealth ofNations. Its first chapter explains why division of labor enables workersto specialize and to increase their productivity. Ibn Khaldun presented almost exactly the same argument 400 years earlier:The individual human being cannot by himself obtain all the necessities of life. All humanbeings must co-operate to that end in their civilization. But what is obtained by the cooperation of a group of human beings satisfies the need of a number many times greater thanthemselves. For instance, no one, by himself, can obtain the share of the wheat he needs forfood. But when six or ten persons, including a smith and a carpenter to make the tools, andothers who are in charge of the oxen, the ploughing of the soil, the harvesting of the ripegrain, and all the other agricultural activities, undertake to obtain their food and work toward


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Ibn Khaldun on Economic Transformation 31that purpose either separately or col lect ively and thus obtain through their labor a certainamount of food, that amount will be food for a number of people many times their own. Th ecombined labor produces more than the needs and necessi ties of the workers. (2:271-72)The increasingly complicated network requires cooperation, hence C a ~ a b i y y a . Cooperation becomes ever more important in development at higher stages of organization and growing markets. With rising wealth there is an increasing demand formore sophisticated products in differentiating markets which in turn offer newopportunities for further productive specialization. Development consists of a mutual stimulation of supply and demand (2:277, 351) linked with the encouragementof science and technology (2:434-35). Ibn Khaldun is aware that prices and valuesare determined by supply and demand (2:276-78). He emphasizes the links between the market forces: demand offers chances for profit and stimulates supply;purchasing power turns into demand, thus stimulating a cumulative developmentprocess.When civilization [population] increases, th e available labor again increases. In turn, luxuryagain increases in correspondence with the increasing profit, and the customs and needs ofluxury increase. Crafts are created to obtain luxury products. Th e value realized from themincreases, and, as a result, profits are again multiplied in the town. Production there is thrivingeven more than before. And so it goes with the second and third increase. All the additionallabor serves luxury and weal th, in contras t to the original labor that served the necessity oflife. (2:272-73)

Ibn Khaldun stresses the role of labor as a source of added value: "Profit is thevalue realized from human labor" (2:311). He is aware that education and a highlevel of science and technology increase productivity. Once technical capacity isavailable, i t attracts talent which in turn strengthens the technological potential.That is why technology is located in the cities where demand and incomes arehigh and buyers sophisticated (2:348).

Ibn Khaldun declared that economic development needs a stable political framework, again a finding clearly verified in recent times. The structure of administration should be simple and should concentrate on a few essential functions likedefense, diplomacy, and public finance (2:6-7). The supervision of markets, the enforcement of regular financial transactions, and the inspection of buildings for theprotection of inhabitants should be part of its basic duties (1 :292, 462-63).

Ibn Khaldun describes the qualifications of a good ruler:An eager desire for goodness and good qualities such as generosity, the forgiveness of error,tolerance toward the weak, hospitali ty toward guests, the support of dependents, maintenance of th e indigent, patience in adverse circumstances, faithful fulfillment of obligations,l iberality with money for the preservation of honor, respect for the religious law and for thescholars . . . , belief in and venerat ion for men of religion . . . , great respect for old men andteachers, acceptance of the truth in response to those who call to it, fairness to and care forthose who are too weak to take care for themselves, humility towards the poor, attentivenessto the complaints of supplicants, fulfillment of the duties of the religious law and divineworship in all details, avoidance of fraud, cunning, deceit, and of no t fulfilling obligations,and similar things. Thus, we know that these are the qualit ies of leadership. ( l :292-93)


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Ibn Khaldun on Economic Transformation 33Ibn Khaldun describes the socioeconomic and political mechanisms of urban ag-

glomeration: growing population and migration to cities, rising urban purchasingpower, differentiating markets and opportunities for specialization, growth in laborproductivity and wealth. In the capital, the government accelerates this processthrough public spending. Being close to the ruler means participation in the addi-tional flow of income. "Their wealth, therefore, increases and their riches grow.The customs and ways of luxury multiply, and all the various kinds of crafts arefirmly established among them. This then is sedentary culture" (2:287).

Ibn Khaldun offers the rudiments of a central place theory: Leading cities havehighly specialized crafts which do not exist in the countryside. Sophisticated facil-ities such as public baths depend on the demand that arises only in a large, denselypopulated city. In smaller towns such establishments cannot be supported; if theyare, they are neglected and fall into ruin because there is insufficient demand forthem (2:302).

Last, Ibn Khaldun stresses the danger of neglecting the sanitary aspects of townplanning. With increasing population densityputrefaction grows and multiplies . . . result ing in many fevers that affect the tempers, andthe bodies become sick and perish. The reason for the growth of putrefaction and evil mois-tures is invariably a dense and abundant civilization. . . . It has been clarified by science inthe proper place that it is necessary to have empty spaces and waste regions interspersed be-tween civilized areas. This makes circulation of the air possible. It removes the corruptionand putrefaction affecting the air after contact with living beings, and brings healthy air. Thisalso is the reason why pestilences occur much more frequently in densely settled cities thanelsewhere. (2: 137)7Ibn Khaldun has a somewhat mechanical conception that population growth is theconsequence of rising wealth.A kind and benevolent rule serves as an incentive to the subjects and gives them energy forcultural activities. Civilization will be abundant, and procreation will be vigorous. All thistakes place gradually. The effects will become noticeable after one or two generations at best.At the end of two generations, the dynasty approaches the limit of its natural life. At that time,civilization has reached the limit of its abundance and growth. (2: 135)The deterioration of sanitary conditions and the emergence of diseases and epidem-ics are accompanied by famine. An ever larger number of peasants leave agricultureas a result of heavy taxation, expropriation, and social and political unrest and re-volt provoked by the decline of the dynasty. Prices for food go up, and famines oc-cur (2: 136). Hence, the urban agglomeration carries the germ of its own destruction.

Deterioration is linked to public finance because in its late phases the dynasty triesto exploit the tax base to meet the rising demand for funds, including the financingof mercenaries to secure its power. Ibn Khaldun also remarks that the economy de-clines as the government is under financial pressure to reduce the public demand forgoods and services of the urban economy (2: 103).Ibn Khaldun's cyclical development model is marked by parallel movements ofpopulation, urbanization, and public finance interwoven with sociopsychological,


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34 Dieter Weisscultural, and political components. The mutual interaction of these elements determines the rise and fall of civilizations.s His empirical background was the Muslimworld of Spain and North Africa, where he noticed cyclical fluctuations within relatively stable lower and upper limits.9

THE RELEVANCE OF THE MUQADDIMA TO STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENTPOLICIES

Ibn Khaldun rightly identified the relevant components of the process of economicdevelopment: creation of added value, the working mechanism of supply and demand, consumption and production, the role of money, capital formation and publicfinance, population growth, the effects of urban agglomeration, the crucial role of agriculture, the importance of political stability, and the conditions of the macroeconomic regulatory system as echoed in contemporary structural adjustment programs.He advocates economic incentives, warns against interventionism and confiscatorypolicies, and perceives social cohesion and commitment as essential sociopolitical ingredients of development. All this is still vital to contemporary economic policies.

The Arab world has gone a long way since the end of colonialism. A number ofcountries tried socialist ideas in the early decades; others started with market-orientedstrategies and turned to state-guided capitalism and welfare state policies. None hasbeen able to match the newly industrializing countries in the Far East. 10

A number of arguments presented by Ibn Khaldun still deserve attention; amongthem are the role of C a ~ a b i y y a , supply and demand, labor qualification, science andtechnology, political stability, efficient government administration, monetary stability, sound public finance, food prices and subsidies, urbanization, populationpressure, and environmental control.

A number of Arab countries in the process of structural adjustment are faced withrising unemployment, reduced output and income, social tension, and Islamic revivalism. ll Countries that have long relied on a strong public sector are confrontedwith the problems of financing the displacement of up to 50 percent of the industriallabor force. Substantial investments in infrastructure and industrial plants are necessary to arrive at the standards of technology and competitiveness set by countriesin the Far East. Ecological constraints and water shortages are acute problems, forexample, Jordan's water resources will be exhausted by the year 2000. A generaloverhaul ofmanagement techniques is called for in countries like Algeria or Egypt. 12

So far, no general consensus has emerged as to the best path to take to overall reform. Conflicting advice is presented by professional economists, and reform policies are becoming an art. The conversion of planned or mixed economies in the Arabworld requires new methods of intervention focused on the macroeconomic leveland on indirect incentives. l3 Everyone agrees that changes are needed, but views asto the extent, pace, and sequencing of the changes diverge. Three major subjects ofdebate are: (1) Can partial reforms succeed while other macroeconomic distortionspersist? (2) Will political consensus in favor of reforms be sustained as social tension and unemployment rise? (3) Can the lack of expertise in the legal and institutional arrangements of a market economy be overcome?


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Ibn Khaldun on Economic Transformation 35Priority can be given to the reintroduction of private ownership before addressing

problems of macroeconomic stability and market development,14 an approach thatdiminishes the political risk that the economy might remain under the control of theold public-sector elites. Or one can start with macroeconomic, in particular monetary, reforms and the establishment of functioning markets for goods, services, andfactors of production since a private sector cannot function effectively without asound monetary system and financial market, and then deal at a later stage with theprivatization of the large state-owned enterprises. No single sequence can claim tobe optimal for all economies. But experience gained so far in the Arab world andin Eastern Europe indicates that a workable approach should begin with macroeconomic stabil ization, that is, monetary and budget reform and balance of paymentsadjustment. Then prices should be deregulated and domestic and foreign trade liberalized. Many of these issues were addressed by Ibn Khaldun in the language ofhis time.

No reform can avoid painful social adjustments. Both inflation and unemployment tend to rise as prices are decontrolled and the real losses of a previously distorted industrial structure become visible. In a number of Arab countries, politicalopposition is on the rise. Income disparities are bound to grow and will challengeconcepts of social equity established in the past. Therefore, ca:jabiyya constitutes acore concept of political sustainability of the structural adjustment process.

The implementation of comprehensive reform packages will take at least a decade. Several years are necessary to put into effect the most important measures ofmacroeconomic stabilization: a deregulation of the prices of the majority of goodsand services, a liberalization of trade and of the labor markets, privatization ofsmall and medium-sized firms, and building a modified welfare net, which in somecountries (e.g., Egypt) is supported by a social fund financed by the World Bank. 15In a subsequent phase of several years, further measures toward liberalization andprivatization must be implemented, and basic issues of the legal, administrative,and insti tutional framework are to be tackled. 16 Time is essential, but time is running out in many overpopulated Arab countries with unrestricted population growthand declining migration outlets.

Change is not at issue, but implementat ion is being delayed by the social cost ofthe transition, which cannot be borne by many Arab countries alone. With shrinkingincomes, a further decline in consumption is reaching its limits. The sustainable political consensus and manageable social cohesion explored by Ibn Khaldun may become major problems. Everywhere attempts at reform suffer from the fact that thesocial costs of adjustment are not being financed, with the result that reform measures lack determination. Governments are understandably apprehensive of political unrest.

Both Western and oil-rich Arab donor countries may be facing the common necessity of developing an enlarged and far-sighted concept of regional economic andsocial security in the Maghrib and Mashreq states. This could become a major issuefor the European Community in spite of its preoccupation with the turmoil in Eastern Europe. The trans-Mediterranean perspective was part ofIbn Khaldun's politicalexperience when he moved from North Africa to the court of King Muhammad V


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36 Dieter Weissof Granada and was put in charge of a peace mission to Pedro the Cruel, King ofCastile in 1364. In our times, from the European perspective mutual security isthreatened by growing poverty and social frustration in the Arab countries borderingthe Mediterranean. Similar apprehensions may be shared by the oil-rich membersof the Arab League.Both in parts of the Arab world and in Eastern Europe the ideological vacuum

that the end of communism has left is being filled by a revival of ethnic, nationalist,and religious passions. We have to live with this search for identity in a turbulentworld. The "new world order," the "peace dividend," and "the end of history" havealready been replaced by uncertainties, the end of the reliable political coordinatesof the cold war, and many open questions calling for the sobriety and analyticalclarity so aptly demonstrated by Ibn Khaldun, in designing a viable coexistence onboth sides of the Mediterranean.The Arab countries in the process of structural adjustment cannot evade the old lessons of development: to allocate scarce resources to meaningful goals within a framework of suitable incentives embedded into a broad social consensus. These werealready the early insights of Ibn Khaldun. His general observations are still timely forcontemporary economic reformers both within the Arab world and outside it.

NOTESAuthor's note: This paper was presented at the Depar tment of Near Eastern Studies, Princeton Uni

versity, on 24 March 1994, while the author was John Foster Dulles Visit ing Professor at the WoodrowWilson School of Public and International Affairs.IDieter Weiss, Wirtschaftliche Entwicklungsplanung in der Vereinigten Arabischen Republik (Co

logne-Opladen, 1964),238 f.2Walter J. Fischel, Ibn Khaldun in Egypt: His Public Functions and His Historical Research (1382

1406). A Study in Islamic Historiography (Berkeley, Calif., 1967), 15-19; idem, Ibn Khaldun and Tamerlane (Berkeley, Calif., 1952),30 f.; Philip K. Hitt i, History of the Arabs (London, 1949),567-68;Cl. Huart, Geschichte der Araber (Leipzig, 1915), 2:205. Ibn Khaldun, The Muqaddimah, trans. FranzRosenthal (London, 1967) (hereafter cited as Ibn Khaldun/F. Rosenthal), 1:xxxiii f.; Charles Issawi, AnArab Philosophy of History: Selections from the Prolegomena of Ibn Khaldun of Tunis (1332-1406)(London, 1950), 14 f.; O. G. von Wesendonck, "Ibn Chaldun: Ein arabischer Kulturhistoriker des 14.Jahrhunderts," Deutsche Rundschau 194 (1929): 46 f. See also Pitirim A. Sorokin, The Crisis ofOur Age:The Social and Cultural Outlook (New York, 1946), 301; Ludwig von Bertalanffy, General Systems Theory: Foundations, Development. Application (New York, 1968), 11.

3Here and following, the numbers in parenthesis re fer to the volume and the page in Rosenthal'stranslation of the Muqaddimah cited in n. 2.

4Erwin Rosenthal, "Ibn Khaldfms Gedanken tiber den Staat: Ein Beitrag zur Geschichte der mittelalterlichen Staatslehre," Historische Zeitschrift 25 (1932): 1-2; Annemarie Schimmel, Ibn Chaldun: Ausgewiihlte Abschnitte aus der Muqaddima (Ttibingen, 1951), xviii, xix, 9, 37, translates C a ~ a b i y y a as"Zusammengehorigkeitsgefiihl"; Ibn Khaldun/Rosenthal, lxi, Ixxviii f., translates it as "group feeling";Vincent Monteil, Ibn Khaldun. Discours sur l 'histoire universelle. Al-Muqaddima. Tradition nouvelle(preface et notes) (Paris: Commission internationale pour la traduction des chefs d'oeuvre 1967-1968),I :255, writes: "Ce terme, dont Ibn Khaldfin a assure la fortune, peut etre traduit , selon Ie contexte, par"esprit t ribal, ou de clan; espri t de corps; tribalisme; consanguinite; l iens du sang." Ulrich Schoen, Determination und Freiheit im arabischen Denken heute (Gottingen, 1976),91, translates it as "BewuBtsein, zu einer Gemeinschaft zu gehoren . . . Clangeist." Muhsin Mahdi, Ibn Khaldun's Philosophy ofHistory (London, 1957), 196, translates it as "communal ethos, community of sentiment, or social solidarity." See also Salim Alafenish, "Die Bedouinen in Ibn Khalduns Wissenschaft," in Nomadismus-EinEntwicklungsproblem? ed. Fred Scholz and Jorg Janzen (Berl in , 1982), 122-23; Heinrich Simon, Ibn


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Ibn Khaldun on Economic Transformation 37Khalduns Wissenschaft von der menschlichen Kultur (Leipzig, 1959),48 f. Bassam Tibi, Yom Gottes-reich zum Nationalstaat: Islam und panarabischer Nationalismus (Frankfurt, 1987), 128; Albert Hourani, Arabic Thought in the Liberal Age, 1798-1939 (London, 1962),41,52,78; Aziz Al-Azmeh, IbnKhaldun in Modern Scholarship (London, 1991), 168-73; Gerhard Hopp, "Ibn Haldun und die arabischeLinke," in Ibn Haldun und seine Zeit, ed. Dieter Sturm (Halle, 1983),54.

5See also Hellmut Ritter, "Irrational Solidarity Groups: A Socio-Psychological Study in Connectionwith Ibn Khaldun," Oriens 1 (1948): 4.

6See , on monetary crises during Ibn Khaldun's times, Subhi Y. Labib, "HandelsgeschichteAgyptens im Spiitmittelalter (1171-1517)," Vierteljahresschrift fu r Sozial-und Wirtschaftsgeschichte46 (1965): 266 f.7These recommendations contrast with those given by Thomas Robert Malthus, Essay on the Prin-

ciple of Population, 6th ed. (1798), suggesting public health standards be deliberately lowered to fightpopulation growth:To act consistently, therefore, we should facilitate, instead of foolishly and vainly endeavouring to impede, the operations of nature in producing this mortality; and if we dread the too frequent visitation of the horrid form of famine,we should sedulously encourage the other forms of destruction, which we compel nature to use. Instead of recommending cleanliness to the poor, we should encourage contrary habits. In our towns we should make the streets narrower,crowd more people into the houses, and court the return of the plague. In the country, we should build our villages nearstagnant pools, and particularly encourage settlements in all marshy and unwholesome situations. But above all, weshould reprobate specific remedies for ravaging diseases.Cf. Jacob Oser and William C. Blanchfield, The Evolution ofEconomic Thought (New York, 1975), 107-8.See on the history of pests and famine in the Middle East, Alfred von Kremer, Kulturgeschichte des Orientsunter den Chalifen (Aalen, 1966),2:490 f; Michael W. Dols, The Black Death in the Middle East (Princeton,N.J., 1977), 13 f.8Jean David C. Boulakia, "Ibn Khaldun: A Fourteenth-Century Economist," Journal of PoliticalEconomy 79 (1971): 1117. Fuat M. Andie and Suphan Andie, "An Exploration into Fiscal Sociology:

Ibn Khaldun, Schumpeter, and Public Choice," Finanzarchiv 3 (1985): 456-59.9Joseph J. Spengler, "Economic Thought of Islam: Ibn Khaldun," Comparative Studies in Society

and History 6 (1963-64): 289 f.JOCf. Abdulaziz 1. Daghistani, "The Race of Development: Egypt vs. Others," L'Egypte Contempo-

raine 401 (1985): 6 f.IIDieter Weiss, "The Struggle for a Viable Islamic Economy," Muslim World 79 (1989): 46-58.12Alex Moller, Klaus Billerbeck, Christian Heimpel, Wolfgang Hillebrand, Hans-Herbert Taake,

Dieter Weiss, Proposals for the Solution of the Most Important Structural, Economic and FinancialProblems of the Arab Republic of Egypt. Report to the President of the Arab Republic of Egypt AnwarEl Sadat (Berlin, 1980),4-8. Dieter Weiss, "Institutional Obstacles to Reform Policies: A Case Studyof Egypt," Economics 47 (1993): 66 f.J3Dieter Weiss, "Introducing Market Elements into a Socialist Economy: The Experience of EasternEurope and the People's Republic of China," L'Egypte Contemporaine 415-16 (1989): 42-44.

14Cf. World Bank, World Development Report 1991 (Washington, D.C., 1991), 145 f.15Weiss, "Institutional Obstacles", 72-75.16Cf. World Bank, 145-46; Dieter Weiss, Structural Adjustment Programs in the Middle East: The

Impact of Value Patterns and Social Norms (Berlin, 1992), 12 f.

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