Weekly Research Report ON Commodity Mcx 28 Apr to 02 May 2014

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28 APRIL 02 MAY 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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MCX GOLD last week showed upward Movement and able to maintain above 38.2% retracement and also closed Above it. Now, on higher side if it Maintains above 29000-29100 then Next resistance may be seen in the Range of 29400-29500. On other hand If it sustains at lower levels and trades Below 28600 then bears may take it Towards the support level of 28200.

Transcript of Weekly Research Report ON Commodity Mcx 28 Apr to 02 May 2014

Page 1: Weekly Research Report ON Commodity Mcx 28 Apr to 02 May 2014

28 APRIL – 02 MAY 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Page 2: Weekly Research Report ON Commodity Mcx 28 Apr to 02 May 2014

MAJOR EVENTS Gold rose to close at $1,300 an ounce on Friday, extending the previous day's sharp

reversal from a 2-1/2 month low, as violence in Ukraine boosted bullion's safe-haven

appeal, and weakness in equity markets also supported gold. For the week, gold was

up 0.5 percent, its third weekly rise in four weeks. Today's move in gold is driven by

risk-off sentiment. Technical buying, a stronger euro/dollar have also helped give

some support to prices. The United States said it was prepared to impose further

targeted sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine and that European leaders had

agreed to coordinate on steps to make Moscow pay. On Thursday, Ukrainian forces

killed up to five pro-Moscow rebels, prompting Russia to begin army drills near the

border. U.S. COMEX gold futures for June delivery settled up $10.20 at $1,300.80 an

ounce, with trading volume about 30 percent below its 30-day average. Gold tends to

have an inverse relationship with equity markets, with investors seeking refuge from

riskier assets in times of political or financial troubles. Physical gold investors now

digest news that India will not immediately withdraw curbs on gold imports. India, the

second biggest consumer of gold after China, last year imposed a record 10 percent

import duty on the metal.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell to the lowest level in two weeks, widening the

discount to Brent, as U.S. equities slipped and oil stockpiles expanded.

Prices dropped 1.3 percent, following the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) amid

disappointing corporate earnings. WTI capped the first weekly loss since April 4 as

inventories reached the highest level since government weekly data started in 1982.

Brent fell less than WTI on concern the Ukraine crisis will escalate and disrupt

supplies. Nothing physical or fundamental is seen that’s bullish for oil. The petroleum

market is driven by short-term money flows. We probably will test $100. WTI for June

delivery fell $1.34 to $100.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the

lowest settlement since April 7. The futures are down 3.6 percent this week. The

volume of all futures traded was 19 percent below the 100-day average for the time

of day. Brent for June settlement slid 75 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $109.58 a barrel on

the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Trading was 2.3 percent above the

100-day average. WTI’s discount to the European benchmark crude expanded to

$8.98 a barrel from $8.39 yesterday.

WTI Crude Drops

to Two-Week Low.

Copper Rallies To

One And Half

Month Highs On

MCX.

Copper prices rallied to almost a one and half month high on MCX, amid speculation

demand in top consumer China will strengthen in the near-term. The prices picked up

strength in the opening trades though minor profit booking is active in evening but

Copper is likely to show gains towards Rs 425 in short term. The current levels of

Copper when last checked were at Rs 417.95 per kg.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for May delivery

rose to a session high of $3.094 a pound on Thursday, the most since March 7. Copper

futures are likely to find support at $3.032 a pound, the low from April 23 and

resistance at $3.219 a pound, the high from March 7.

April and May are seasonally strong months for copper consumption in China amid

brisk construction activity. The Asian nation is the world's largest copper consumer,

accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

World Aluminum, global aluminum output reached a record high of 4.329 million tons

in March, up by 5% compared to the same time of last year. It is predicted that auto

industry will bring the greatest motivation to new demands for aluminum.

Gold rises on

Ukraine worries.

Page 3: Weekly Research Report ON Commodity Mcx 28 Apr to 02 May 2014

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Apr 28 7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 1.0% -0.8%

Apr 29 6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 12.9% 13.2%

7:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 82.9 82.3

Apr 30 5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 212K 191K

6:00pm Advance GDP q/q 1.1% 2.6%

6:00pm Advance GDP Price Index q/q 1.6% 1.6%

6:00pm Employment Cost Index q/q 0.5% 0.5%

7:15pm Chicago PMI 56.6 55.9

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 3.5M

11:30pm FOMC Statement

11:30pm Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%

May 1 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y -30.2%

6:00pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

6:00pm Unemployment Claims 317K 329K

6:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%

6:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.7% 0.3%

6:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.3%

6:30pm Final Manufacturing PMI 55.8 55.4

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.3 53.7

7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.8% 0.1%

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 59.4 59.0

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 49B

All Day Total Vehicle Sales 16.2M 16.4M

May 2 6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 211K 192K

6:00pm Unemployment Rate 6.6% 6.7%

6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.0%

7:30pm Factory Orders m/m 1.3% 1.6%

Page 4: Weekly Research Report ON Commodity Mcx 28 Apr to 02 May 2014

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

28645 28350 28000 29000 29300 29600

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

41900 40750 39500 43100 43850 44900

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD last week showed upward

movement and able to maintain above

38.2% retracement and also closed

above it. Now, on higher side if it

maintains above 29000-29100 then

next resistance may be seen in the

range of 29400-29500. On other hand

if it sustains at lower levels and trades

below 28600 then bears may take it

towards the support level of 28200.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 29100 for the target of 29500

with stop loss of 28600.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER showed sideways to

bullish movement on daily charts, not

able to maintain on lower levels and

closed above the trendline. Now,

immediate resistance is seen near

43100 closing above it may lead upto

next resistance level of 43850. On

lower side if it sustains below 42000

then again bearish movement may

start and breach support level of

40000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 42000 for

targets of 40500-40000, with stop loss of

43100.

Page 5: Weekly Research Report ON Commodity Mcx 28 Apr to 02 May 2014

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

6110 6020 5920 6210 6320 6420

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

414 405.90 395.50 423.35 433.10 443

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper on daily charts gave

breakout of its important resistance

i.e. 412 and took resistance of 38.2%

retracement. Now on higher side if it

maintains above 425 then breakout of

trendline is exepected and may lead

upto next resistance level of 433. On

other hand if correction occurs on

lower side then 410 will act as

important support level.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell

below 6100 for the targets of 6000-5950,

with stop loss of 6250.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

sideways movement in first three

trading sessions but not able to sustain

on higher level and droped down in

last session. Now, If the downward

movement continues and sustain

below 6100 then it may find support in

the range of 6000-5950. Strength is

expected only if it able to maintain

above 6210 on closing basis.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

above 425, with stop loss of 414 for the

targets of 433-435.

PIVOT TABLE

Page 6: Weekly Research Report ON Commodity Mcx 28 Apr to 02 May 2014

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