Weekly Research Report ON Commodity Mcx 28 Apr to 02 May 2014
-
Upload
trifid-research -
Category
Business
-
view
66 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Weekly Research Report ON Commodity Mcx 28 Apr to 02 May 2014
28 APRIL – 02 MAY 2014
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
MAJOR EVENTS Gold rose to close at $1,300 an ounce on Friday, extending the previous day's sharp
reversal from a 2-1/2 month low, as violence in Ukraine boosted bullion's safe-haven
appeal, and weakness in equity markets also supported gold. For the week, gold was
up 0.5 percent, its third weekly rise in four weeks. Today's move in gold is driven by
risk-off sentiment. Technical buying, a stronger euro/dollar have also helped give
some support to prices. The United States said it was prepared to impose further
targeted sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine and that European leaders had
agreed to coordinate on steps to make Moscow pay. On Thursday, Ukrainian forces
killed up to five pro-Moscow rebels, prompting Russia to begin army drills near the
border. U.S. COMEX gold futures for June delivery settled up $10.20 at $1,300.80 an
ounce, with trading volume about 30 percent below its 30-day average. Gold tends to
have an inverse relationship with equity markets, with investors seeking refuge from
riskier assets in times of political or financial troubles. Physical gold investors now
digest news that India will not immediately withdraw curbs on gold imports. India, the
second biggest consumer of gold after China, last year imposed a record 10 percent
import duty on the metal.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell to the lowest level in two weeks, widening the
discount to Brent, as U.S. equities slipped and oil stockpiles expanded.
Prices dropped 1.3 percent, following the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) amid
disappointing corporate earnings. WTI capped the first weekly loss since April 4 as
inventories reached the highest level since government weekly data started in 1982.
Brent fell less than WTI on concern the Ukraine crisis will escalate and disrupt
supplies. Nothing physical or fundamental is seen that’s bullish for oil. The petroleum
market is driven by short-term money flows. We probably will test $100. WTI for June
delivery fell $1.34 to $100.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the
lowest settlement since April 7. The futures are down 3.6 percent this week. The
volume of all futures traded was 19 percent below the 100-day average for the time
of day. Brent for June settlement slid 75 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $109.58 a barrel on
the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Trading was 2.3 percent above the
100-day average. WTI’s discount to the European benchmark crude expanded to
$8.98 a barrel from $8.39 yesterday.
WTI Crude Drops
to Two-Week Low.
Copper Rallies To
One And Half
Month Highs On
MCX.
Copper prices rallied to almost a one and half month high on MCX, amid speculation
demand in top consumer China will strengthen in the near-term. The prices picked up
strength in the opening trades though minor profit booking is active in evening but
Copper is likely to show gains towards Rs 425 in short term. The current levels of
Copper when last checked were at Rs 417.95 per kg.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for May delivery
rose to a session high of $3.094 a pound on Thursday, the most since March 7. Copper
futures are likely to find support at $3.032 a pound, the low from April 23 and
resistance at $3.219 a pound, the high from March 7.
April and May are seasonally strong months for copper consumption in China amid
brisk construction activity. The Asian nation is the world's largest copper consumer,
accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
World Aluminum, global aluminum output reached a record high of 4.329 million tons
in March, up by 5% compared to the same time of last year. It is predicted that auto
industry will bring the greatest motivation to new demands for aluminum.
Gold rises on
Ukraine worries.
E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Apr 28 7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 1.0% -0.8%
Apr 29 6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 12.9% 13.2%
7:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 82.9 82.3
Apr 30 5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 212K 191K
6:00pm Advance GDP q/q 1.1% 2.6%
6:00pm Advance GDP Price Index q/q 1.6% 1.6%
6:00pm Employment Cost Index q/q 0.5% 0.5%
7:15pm Chicago PMI 56.6 55.9
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 3.5M
11:30pm FOMC Statement
11:30pm Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%
May 1 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y -30.2%
6:00pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 317K 329K
6:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%
6:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.7% 0.3%
6:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.3%
6:30pm Final Manufacturing PMI 55.8 55.4
7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.3 53.7
7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.8% 0.1%
7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 59.4 59.0
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 49B
All Day Total Vehicle Sales 16.2M 16.4M
May 2 6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 211K 192K
6:00pm Unemployment Rate 6.6% 6.7%
6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.0%
7:30pm Factory Orders m/m 1.3% 1.6%
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
28645 28350 28000 29000 29300 29600
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
41900 40750 39500 43100 43850 44900
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD last week showed upward
movement and able to maintain above
38.2% retracement and also closed
above it. Now, on higher side if it
maintains above 29000-29100 then
next resistance may be seen in the
range of 29400-29500. On other hand
if it sustains at lower levels and trades
below 28600 then bears may take it
towards the support level of 28200.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 29100 for the target of 29500
with stop loss of 28600.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER showed sideways to
bullish movement on daily charts, not
able to maintain on lower levels and
closed above the trendline. Now,
immediate resistance is seen near
43100 closing above it may lead upto
next resistance level of 43850. On
lower side if it sustains below 42000
then again bearish movement may
start and breach support level of
40000.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 42000 for
targets of 40500-40000, with stop loss of
43100.
C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
…
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6110 6020 5920 6210 6320 6420
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
414 405.90 395.50 423.35 433.10 443
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper on daily charts gave
breakout of its important resistance
i.e. 412 and took resistance of 38.2%
retracement. Now on higher side if it
maintains above 425 then breakout of
trendline is exepected and may lead
upto next resistance level of 433. On
other hand if correction occurs on
lower side then 410 will act as
important support level.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell
below 6100 for the targets of 6000-5950,
with stop loss of 6250.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed
sideways movement in first three
trading sessions but not able to sustain
on higher level and droped down in
last session. Now, If the downward
movement continues and sustain
below 6100 then it may find support in
the range of 6000-5950. Strength is
expected only if it able to maintain
above 6210 on closing basis.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
above 425, with stop loss of 414 for the
targets of 433-435.
PIVOT TABLE
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
DISCLAIMER